{"title":"Non-performing loans in Baltic States: determinants and macroeconomic effects","authors":"Jordan Kjosevski, Mihail Petkovski","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2016.1246234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1246234","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study analyses the linkages between macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) and their impact on macroeconomic performance in the Baltic States using two complementary approaches. First, we examine the macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of NPLs for a panel of 27 banks from the Baltics using annual data for the period 2005–2014. The most important macroeconomic factors are GDP growth, inflation and domestic credit to the private sector. As for the bank-specific determinants, we found that the equity to total assets ratio, return on assets, the return on equity and the growth of gross loans were of importance. Second, we investigate the feedback between NPLs and its macroeconomic determinants. The results suggest that the real economy responds to NPLs and that there are strong feedback effects from macroeconomic conditions such as domestic credit to private sector, GDP growth, unemployment and inflation to NPLs.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"17 1","pages":"25 - 44"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1246234","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46662915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Work incentives across the income distribution and for model families in Lithuania: 2005–2013","authors":"Jekaterina Navickė, Romas Lazutka","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2016.1205407","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1205407","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of cash social benefits on work incentives across the income distribution and among selected model family types in Lithuania. The analysis of work incentives was carried out for 2005–2013 based on a combination of measures estimated using the EUROMOD tax–benefit microsimulation model. The analysis revealed high disincentives to work at the bottom of the income distribution, dominated by the effect of cash social benefits compared to taxes or social insurance contributions. A strong trade-off between benefit adequacy and work incentives is built into the design of the national cash benefit system, particularly social assistance. The challenge for policy design is thus to encourage active labour market participation among low earners without eroding the minimum income protection floor.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"16 1","pages":"175 - 191"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2016-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1205407","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60299511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Internal labour market mobility in 2005–2014 in Latvia: the micro data approach","authors":"Ludmila Fadejeva, Ieva Opmane","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2016.1196872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1196872","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Based on labour force survey micro data for 2005–2014 this research evaluates labour market internal mobility in Latvia comparing periods before, during and after the crisis. We also provide the comparison of Latvia’s situation with other euro area countries, which is of particular interest since labour flow statistics for Latvia are not present in major reports on the European labour market. Labour flow estimates and the survival analysis indicate that labour market in Latvia is internally mobile; it accelerated economic recovery after the crisis and is enhancing Latvia’s ability to adjust quickly to internal and external shocks. The flexibility of contract options and working hours, serve as a labour market mobility boosting mechanism. The survival analysis indicates that the flows from/to employment to/from unemployment in Latvia are determined by the characteristics of particular worker groups and the performance of particular sectors of the economy.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"16 1","pages":"152 - 174"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2016-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1196872","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60299410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Productivity clustering and growth in Central and Eastern Europe","authors":"M. Niţoi, M. Pochea","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2016.1189267","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1189267","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article uses a non-linear time-varying model to test productivity convergence in 10 emerging countries within Central and Eastern Europe. The results show that the convergence algorithm has rejected the null hypothesis of convergence for all countries in most of the sectors. Also, we found evidence that the productivity clusters for total economy and other sectors are very different in terms of number and countries. Additionally, even if the productivity gaps in the region have been reduced, we still notice significant disparities between countries. The clustering algorithm shows countries which have a high productivity growth in some sectors and a low productivity growth in others. This reveals the prevalence of idiosyncratic factors in productivity determinants. Baltic countries are catching up, while other countries such as Bulgaria are underperformers.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"16 1","pages":"132 - 151"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2016-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1189267","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60299299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Investor education and trading activity on the stock market","authors":"Kristjan Liivamägi","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2016.1189058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1189058","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study analyses how investors’ educational characteristics affect their trading activity on the stock market. It uses a unique dataset from the Tallinn Stock Exchange, covering all transactions of a full business cycle from 2004 to 2012, along with a dataset containing the official educational background for all individual investors. Applying an ordered logit regression model and controlling for gender, age, wealth, portfolio diversification and average stock holding period, this study provides empirical evidence that the investors with top results in national exams or the investors holding an academic degree trade stocks more actively. The opposite is true for the investors with no academic degree as they trade stocks less actively. Analysing investors’ risk-adjusted performance reveals that trading experience in the form of trading activity is the contributing factor for higher returns on the stock market.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"16 1","pages":"114 - 131"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2016-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1189058","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60299180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Firm exporting and productivity: what if productivity is no longer a black box","authors":"H. Vu, Mark J. Holmes, T. Tran, Steven Lim","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2016.1187382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1187382","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper uses Vietnamese firm-level data to examine the relationship between firm productivity and exporting. In particular, this paper shows that more productive firms are more likely than less productive firms to export, consistent with the extensive prior literature. However, this paper finds no evidence that exporting affects productivity, which can be decomposed into technical efficiency change, technological progress, and scale change. Thus, the findings support a large role of self-selection in accounting for export decision, but little gain from learning-by-exporting in the case of Vietnamese Small medium sized enterprises (SMEs). These findings imply that export promotion policies may not be effective unless accompanied by strategies to help SMEs become more productive.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"16 1","pages":"113 - 95"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2016-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1187382","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60299488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Should pension funds hedge currency risk? The case of Poland","authors":"Radosław Kurach, Daniel Papla","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2016.1187429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1187429","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In this study, we identify the optimal hedge ratio for mandatory pension funds, defining the optimum as the value that minimizes the portfolio variance in accordance with the social objective of the mandatory pension system. Unlike most previous studies, we apply a dynamic framework to account for a regular inflow of contributions and impose specific investment constraints that make the simulation more realistic. Our outcomes challenge the conventional knowledge concerning the need for currency hedging. We discover that in the case of Poland, shortening the currency positions is undesirable, as it amplifies the portfolio variance. Moreover, we provide evidence that pension funds should internationalize their portfolios even further to fully exploit the available diversification gains. Finally, the obtained simulation results are matched with real data. The comparison presented tends to beg the question of how to overcome the home bias phenomenon.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"16 1","pages":"81 - 94"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2016-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1187429","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60299594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fundamental housing prices in the Baltic States: empirical approach","authors":"Darius Kulikauskas","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2016.1173446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1173446","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper investigates if the imbalances in the Baltic residential real estate markets that were mounting up prior the crisis of 2008–2009 could have been detected in real time. It develops an empirical framework comprised of various empirical techniques for assessing housing price misalignments from their fundamental prices. For this purpose, several statistical indicators (price-to-rent ratio, price-to-income ratio, price deviations from Hodrick-Prescott filtered trend) together with the estimates from equilibrium equations are computed. The use of those indicators in a consistent graphical framework reduce the uncertainty associated with using only a single metric and allows to arrive to clearer conclusions about residential real estate price misalignments. It is shown that the framework would have been able to identify the overvaluation in the residential real estate markets in the Baltics as early as in 2005.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"16 1","pages":"53 - 80"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2016-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1173446","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60299388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Randomness or stock–flow: which mechanism describes labour market matching in Poland?","authors":"Ewa Gałecka-Burdziak","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2017.1344481","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2017.1344481","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT I identify which theoretical model (random, stock–flow, or job queuing) best describes the matching mechanism in the labour market in Poland. The purpose of this work is to formulate policy recommendations aimed at increasing the number of matches. I use monthly registered unemployment data for the period January 1999–June 2013 and econometrically correct for temporal aggregation bias in the data. I extend known solutions and apply them directly to a job queuing model. Job seekers (from the pool) seek work among old and new job posts, but only a small fraction of the newly unemployed individuals find work quickly. Vacancies are the driving force in aggregate hiring, but the inflow is more important than the stock. The random model has greater explanatory power, although the results do not negate the non-random model. Hence, better information and higher inflows (especially of job offers) should facilitate matching.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"17 1","pages":"119 - 135"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2016-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2017.1344481","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60300043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Survey measures of inflation expectations in Poland: are they relevant from the macroeconomic perspective?","authors":"Tomasz Łyziak","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2016.1165402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1165402","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper estimates different versions of the stylized New Keynesian model of the Polish economy, in which alternative measures of inflation expectations are used, that is, model-consistent (rational) expectations and survey-based expectations of consumers, enterprises and financial sector analysts. To compare dynamic properties of the models, we analyse propagation of the interest rate impulse, exchange rate impulse and a permanent change of inflation target. Differences in impulse responses pose the question which model should be treated as the most adequate. Analysis of in-sample inflation forecasting errors suggests that the model with rational expectations displays the lowest forecasting accuracy, while the model using expectations of enterprises is the best-performing model. In more general terms, our analysis suggests the best way of exploiting survey data on inflation expectations is not by using them as separate forward-looking information, alternative to macroeconomic models, but by combining both types of information.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"16 1","pages":"33 - 52"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2016-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2016.1165402","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60299337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}