Statistics and Public Policy最新文献_第3页

Comments on: A Re-analysis of Repeatability and Reproducibility in the Ames-USDOE-FBI Study, by Dorfman and Valliant 评论：Dorfman和Valliant对Ames USDOE FBI研究中重复性和再现性的重新分析

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-03-13 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2188069

Max D. Morris

引用次数: 2

A Statistical Understanding of Disability in the LGBT Community 对LGBT社区残疾的统计理解

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2188056

Christopher R. Surfus

引用次数: 0

What Protects the Autonomy of the Federal Statistical Agencies? An Assessment of the Procedures in Place to Protect the Independence and Objectivity of Official U.S. Statistics 什么保护联邦统计机构的自主权？对保护美国官方统计数据独立性和客观性的现行程序的评估

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2188062

C. Citro, Jonathan Auerbach, Katherine Smith Evans, E. Groshen, J. Landefeld, J. Mulrow, Tom Petska, Steve Pierson, N. Potok, C. Rothwell, John Thompson, James L. Woodworth, Edward Wu

引用次数: 2

A Bayesian Spatio-temporal Model to Optimize Allocation of Buprenorphine in North Carolina. 优化北卡罗来纳州丁丙诺啡分配的贝叶斯时空模型。

IF 1.5

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-06-29 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2218448

Qianyu Dong, David Kline, Staci A Hepler

{"title":"A Bayesian Spatio-temporal Model to Optimize Allocation of Buprenorphine in North Carolina.","authors":"Qianyu Dong, David Kline, Staci A Hepler","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2218448","DOIUrl":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2218448","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The opioid epidemic is an ongoing public health crisis. In North Carolina, overdose deaths due to illicit opioid overdose have sharply increased over the last 5-7 years. Buprenorphine is a U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved medication for treatment of opioid use disorder and is obtained by prescription. Prior to January 2023, providers had to obtain a waiver and were limited in the number of patients that they could prescribe buprenorphine. Thus, identifying counties where increasing buprenorphine would yield the greatest overall reduction in overdose death can help policymakers target certain geographical regions to inform an effective public health response. We propose a Bayesian spatiotemporal model that relates yearly, county-level changes in illicit opioid overdose death rates to changes in buprenorphine prescriptions. We use our model to forecast the statewide count and rate of illicit opioid overdose deaths in future years, and we use nonlinear constrained optimization to identify the optimal buprenorphine increase in each county under a set of constraints on available resources. Our model estimates a negative relationship between death rate and increasing buprenorphine after accounting for other covariates, and our identified optimal single-year allocation strategy is estimated to reduce opioid overdose deaths by over 5.</p>","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10398789/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9961651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Shining a Light on Forensic Black-Box Studies 照亮法医黑匣子研究

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-09-28 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2216748

Kori Khan, A. Carriquiry

{"title":"Shining a Light on Forensic Black-Box Studies","authors":"Kori Khan, A. Carriquiry","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2216748","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2216748","url":null,"abstract":"Forensic science plays a critical role in the United States criminal justice system. For decades, many feature-based fields of forensic science, such as firearm and toolmark identification, developed outside the scientific community's purview. The results of these studies are widely relied on by judges nationwide. However, this reliance is misplaced. Black-box studies to date suffer from inappropriate sampling methods and high rates of missingness. Current black-box studies ignore both problems in arriving at the error rate estimates presented to courts. We explore the impact of each type of limitation using available data from black-box studies and court materials. We show that black-box studies rely on non-representative samples of examiners. Using a case study of a popular ballistics study, we find evidence that these unrepresentative samples may commit fewer errors than the wider population from which they came. We also find evidence that the missingness in black-box studies is non-ignorable. Using data from a recent latent print study, we show that ignoring this missingness likely results in systematic underestimates of error rates. Finally, we offer concrete steps to overcome these limitations.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2022-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44806864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Marginal Structural Models to Estimate Causal Effects of Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime 估计携带权法律对犯罪因果影响的边际结构模型

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2022.2120136

W. M. van der Wal

引用次数: 2

Signal Weighted Teacher Value-Added Models 信号加权教师增值模型

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-07-29 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2022.2105769

Edward Kim

引用次数: 0

A Re-Analysis of Repeatability and Reproducibility in the Ames-USDOE-FBI Study Ames-USDOE FBI研究中重复性和再现性的再分析

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-04-19 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2022.2120137

A. Dorfman, R. Valliant

{"title":"A Re-Analysis of Repeatability and Reproducibility in the Ames-USDOE-FBI Study","authors":"A. Dorfman, R. Valliant","doi":"10.1080/2330443X.2022.2120137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2022.2120137","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Forensic firearms identification, the determination by a trained firearms examiner as to whether or not bullets or cartridges came from a common weapon, has long been a mainstay in the criminal courts. Reliability of forensic firearms identification has been challenged in the general scientific community, and, in response, several studies have been carried out aimed at showing that firearms examination is accurate, that is, has low error rates. Less studied has been the question of consistency, of whether two examinations of the same bullets or cartridge cases come to the same conclusion, carried out by an examiner on separate occasions—intrarater reliability or repeatability—or by two examiners—interrater reliability or reproducibility. One important study, described in a 2020 Report by the Ames Laboratory-USDOE to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, went beyond considerations of accuracy to investigate firearms examination repeatability and reproducibility. The Report’s conclusions were paradoxical. The observed agreement of examiners with themselves or with other examiners appears mediocre. However, the study concluded repeatability and reproducibility are satisfactory, on grounds that the observed agreement exceeds a quantity called the expected agreement. We find that appropriately employing expected agreement as it was intended does not suggest satisfactory repeatability and reproducibility, but the opposite.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2022-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44790182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Observational Study of the Effect of the Juvenile Stay-At-Home Order on SARS-CoV-2 Infection Spread in Saline County, Arkansas 阿肯色州Saline县青少年居家令对严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型感染传播影响的观察研究

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-03-09 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2022.2050326

N. Hwang, S. Chatterjee, Y. Di, Sharmodeep Bhattacharyya

引用次数: 0

Wartime Fatalities in the Nuclear Era 核时代的战时死亡

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-02-24 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2022.2038744

L. Ice, J. Scouras, E. Toton

引用次数: 1