Statistics and Public Policy最新文献_第2页

Discussion of “What Protects the Autonomy of the Federal Statistical Agencies? An Assessment of the Procedures in Place to Protect the Independence and Objectivity of Official U.S. Statistics” by Citro et al. (2023) 讨论“什么保护联邦统计机构的自主权?”《对保护美国官方统计数据独立性和客观性的现行程序的评估》，作者:Citro等人(2023)

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2244026

Michael Cohen

引用次数: 0

Is Autonomy Possible and Is It a Good Thing? 自治是可能的吗?自治是一件好事吗?

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2221314

Hermann Habermann, Thomas A. Louis, Franklin Reeder

引用次数: 0

The Autonomy Gap: Response to Citro et al. and the statistical community 自主性差距:对Citro等人和统计界的回应

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2221324

Claire McKay Bowen

{"title":"The Autonomy Gap: Response to Citro et al. and the statistical community","authors":"Claire McKay Bowen","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2221324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2221324","url":null,"abstract":"While the threat of biased AI has received considerable attention, another invisible threat to data democracy exists that has not received scientific or media attention. This threat is the lack of autonomy for the 13 principal United States federal statistical agencies. These agencies collect data that informs the United States federal government’s critical decisions, such as allocating resources and providing essential services. The lack of agency-specific statutory autonomy protections leaves the agencies vulnerable to political influence, which could have lasting ramifications without the public’s knowledge. Citro et al. evaluate the professional autonomy of the 13 federal statistical agencies and found that they lacked sufficient autonomy due to the absence of statutory protections (among other things). They provided three recommendations to enhance the strength of the federal statistical agency’s leadership and its autonomy to address each measure of autonomy for all 13 principal federal statistical agencies. Implementing these recommendations is an initial and crucial step toward preventing future erosion of the federal statistical system. Further, statisticians must take an active role in initiating and engaging in open dialogues with various scientific fields to protect and promote the vital work of federal statistical agencies.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134971441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Three-Way ROCs for Forensic Decision Making 法医决策的三种方法ROC

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-07-21 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2239306

Nicholas Scurich, R. John

引用次数: 1

The Polls and the US Presidential Election in 2020 ….and 2024 2020年和2024年的民调和美国总统大选

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-04 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2199809

A. Barnett, Arnaud Sarfati

{"title":"The Polls and the US Presidential Election in 2020 ….and 2024","authors":"A. Barnett, Arnaud Sarfati","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2199809","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2199809","url":null,"abstract":"Arguably, the single greatest determinant of US public policy is the identity of the president. And if trusted, polls not only provide forecasts about presidential-election outcomes but can act to shape those outcomes. Looking ahead to the 2024 US presidential election and recognizing that polls before the 2020 presidential election were sharply criticized, we consider whether such harsh assessments are warranted. Initially, we explore whether such polls as processed by the sophisticated aggregator FiveThirtyEight successfully forecast actual 2020 state-by-state outcomes. We evaluate FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts using customized statistical methods not used previously, methods that take account of likely correlations among election outcomes in similar states. We find that, taken together, the pollsters and FiveThirtyEight did an excellent job in predicting who would win in individual states, even those “tipping point” states where forecasting is more difficult. However, we also find that FiveThirtyEight underestimated Donald Trump’s vote shares by state to a modest but statistically significant extent. We further consider how the polls performed when the more primitive aggregator Real Clear Politics combined their results, and then how well single statewide polls performed without aggregation. It emerges that both Real Clear Politics and the individual polls fared surprisingly well.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46241583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comments on: A Re-analysis of Repeatability and Reproducibility in the Ames-USDOE-FBI Study, by Dorfman and Valliant 评论：Dorfman和Valliant对Ames USDOE FBI研究中重复性和再现性的重新分析

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-03-13 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2188069

Max D. Morris

引用次数: 2

A Statistical Understanding of Disability in the LGBT Community 对LGBT社区残疾的统计理解

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2188056

Christopher R. Surfus

引用次数: 0

What Protects the Autonomy of the Federal Statistical Agencies? An Assessment of the Procedures in Place to Protect the Independence and Objectivity of Official U.S. Statistics 什么保护联邦统计机构的自主权？对保护美国官方统计数据独立性和客观性的现行程序的评估

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2188062

C. Citro, Jonathan Auerbach, Katherine Smith Evans, E. Groshen, J. Landefeld, J. Mulrow, Tom Petska, Steve Pierson, N. Potok, C. Rothwell, John Thompson, James L. Woodworth, Edward Wu

引用次数: 2

Shining a Light on Forensic Black-Box Studies 照亮法医黑匣子研究

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-09-28 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2216748

Kori Khan, A. Carriquiry

{"title":"Shining a Light on Forensic Black-Box Studies","authors":"Kori Khan, A. Carriquiry","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2216748","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2216748","url":null,"abstract":"Forensic science plays a critical role in the United States criminal justice system. For decades, many feature-based fields of forensic science, such as firearm and toolmark identification, developed outside the scientific community's purview. The results of these studies are widely relied on by judges nationwide. However, this reliance is misplaced. Black-box studies to date suffer from inappropriate sampling methods and high rates of missingness. Current black-box studies ignore both problems in arriving at the error rate estimates presented to courts. We explore the impact of each type of limitation using available data from black-box studies and court materials. We show that black-box studies rely on non-representative samples of examiners. Using a case study of a popular ballistics study, we find evidence that these unrepresentative samples may commit fewer errors than the wider population from which they came. We also find evidence that the missingness in black-box studies is non-ignorable. Using data from a recent latent print study, we show that ignoring this missingness likely results in systematic underestimates of error rates. Finally, we offer concrete steps to overcome these limitations.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2022-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44806864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Marginal Structural Models to Estimate Causal Effects of Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime 估计携带权法律对犯罪因果影响的边际结构模型

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2022.2120136

W. M. van der Wal

引用次数: 2