Statistics and Public Policy最新文献_第2页

Statistical Fallacies in Claims about ‘Massive and Widespread Fraud’ in the 2020 Presidential Election: Examining Claims Based on Aggregate Election Results 1,2 关于2020年总统选举中“大规模和广泛的欺诈”的说法中的统计谬误:基于总选举结果的审查说法1,2

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2289529

Bernard Grofman, Jonathan Cervas

引用次数: 0

Bolstering Education Statistics to Serve the Nation 加强教育统计工作，为国家服务

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-11-17 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2285788

Emerson Elliott, Jonathan Auerbach, C. Citro, Daniel Elchert, Steve Pierson, Marilyn Seastrom, Thomas Snyder, Katherine Wallman, James L. Woodworth

引用次数: 0

Synthetic Control Analysis of the Short-Term Impact of New York State’s Bail Elimination Act on Aggregate Crime 纽约州保释取消法对综合犯罪短期影响的综合控制分析

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-10-06 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2267617

Angela Zhou, Andrew Koo, Nathan Kallus, Rene Ropac, Richard Peterson, Stephen Koppel, Tiffany Bergin

{"title":"Synthetic Control Analysis of the Short-Term Impact of New York State’s Bail Elimination Act on Aggregate Crime","authors":"Angela Zhou, Andrew Koo, Nathan Kallus, Rene Ropac, Richard Peterson, Stephen Koppel, Tiffany Bergin","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2267617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2267617","url":null,"abstract":"We conduct an empirical evaluation of the short-term impact of New York’s bail reform on crime. New York State’s Bail Elimination Act went into effect on January 1, 2020, eliminating money bail and pretrial detention for nearly all misdemeanor and nonviolent felony defendants. Our analysis of effects on aggregate crime rates after the reform informs the understanding of bail reform and general deterrence, rather than specific deterrence via re-arrest rates of the detained/released population. We conduct a synthetic control analysis for a comparative case study of the impact of bail reform. We focus on synthetic control analysis of post-intervention changes in crime for assault, theft, burglary, robbery, and drug crimes, constructing a dataset from publicly reported crime data of 27 large municipalities. Due to the short time frame before the onset of COVID-19 and its far-reaching effects, we restrict attention to a short post-intervention time period. Nonetheless, evaluation of short-term impacts may still inform hypotheses of general deterrence of bail reform policy. Our findings, including placebo checks and other robustness checks, show that for assault, theft, and drug crimes, there is no significant impact of bail reform on aggregate crime. For robbery, we find a statistically significant increase; for burglary, the synthetic control is more variable and our analysis is deemed less conclusive. Since our study assesses the short-term impacts, further work studying long-term impacts of bail reform and on specific deterrence remains necessary.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135351849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

STATISTICAL APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING DISPARATE IMPACT IN FAIR HOUSING CASES 评估公平住房案件中差别影响的统计方法

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2263038

Dennis J. Aigner, Marco del Ángel, Joel Wiles

{"title":"STATISTICAL APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING DISPARATE IMPACT IN FAIR HOUSING CASES","authors":"Dennis J. Aigner, Marco del Ángel, Joel Wiles","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2263038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2263038","url":null,"abstract":"The measurement of the disparate impact of a particular de facto discriminatory policy on a minority or otherwise legally protected group has been of importance since passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. When the data available for the measurement of disparate impact, as embodied in the so-called “disparity ratio,” come from samples, a statistical approach naturally suggests itself. This article reviews both the law and statistics literature with regard to statistical inference applicable to the disparity ratio and related measures of disparate impact. From that review, three primary approaches are evaluated, the difference in so-called “rejection” rates for the protected and non-protected groups, their ratio (the disparity ratio), and the natural logarithm of the disparity ratio. For various reasons, the direct ratio estimator is recommended for use in all but small samples, where the log-ratio approach is to be preferred. The main points are illustrated with two fair housing examples, one being the possible discriminatory effect by race owing to a landlord’s refusal to accept Section 8 housing vouchers in lieu of cash rent, and the other being the effects of occupancy restrictions on families with children. Various methodological issues that arise in the application of these three estimation approaches are addressed in the context of the more complex sample designs that underlie the data utilized.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135194068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comment on “What Protects the Autonomy of the Federal Statistical Agencies? An Assessment of the Procedures in Place That Protect the Independence and Objectivity of Official Statistics” by Pierson et al. 评论《什么保护联邦统计机构的自主权?》《对保护官方统计的独立性和客观性的现行程序的评估》，作者:Pierson等。

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2221320

Wayne Smith

引用次数: 0

Discussion of “What Protects the Autonomy of the Federal Statistical Agencies? An Assessment of the Procedures in Place to Protect the Independence and Objectivity of Official U.S. Statistics” by Citro et al. (2023) 讨论“什么保护联邦统计机构的自主权?”《对保护美国官方统计数据独立性和客观性的现行程序的评估》，作者:Citro等人(2023)

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2244026

Michael Cohen

引用次数: 0

Is Autonomy Possible and Is It a Good Thing? 自治是可能的吗?自治是一件好事吗?

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2221314

Hermann Habermann, Thomas A. Louis, Franklin Reeder

引用次数: 0

The Autonomy Gap: Response to Citro et al. and the statistical community 自主性差距:对Citro等人和统计界的回应

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2221324

Claire McKay Bowen

{"title":"The Autonomy Gap: Response to Citro et al. and the statistical community","authors":"Claire McKay Bowen","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2221324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2221324","url":null,"abstract":"While the threat of biased AI has received considerable attention, another invisible threat to data democracy exists that has not received scientific or media attention. This threat is the lack of autonomy for the 13 principal United States federal statistical agencies. These agencies collect data that informs the United States federal government’s critical decisions, such as allocating resources and providing essential services. The lack of agency-specific statutory autonomy protections leaves the agencies vulnerable to political influence, which could have lasting ramifications without the public’s knowledge. Citro et al. evaluate the professional autonomy of the 13 federal statistical agencies and found that they lacked sufficient autonomy due to the absence of statutory protections (among other things). They provided three recommendations to enhance the strength of the federal statistical agency’s leadership and its autonomy to address each measure of autonomy for all 13 principal federal statistical agencies. Implementing these recommendations is an initial and crucial step toward preventing future erosion of the federal statistical system. Further, statisticians must take an active role in initiating and engaging in open dialogues with various scientific fields to protect and promote the vital work of federal statistical agencies.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134971441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Three-Way ROCs for Forensic Decision Making 法医决策的三种方法ROC

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-07-21 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2239306

Nicholas Scurich, R. John

引用次数: 1

The Polls and the US Presidential Election in 2020 ….and 2024 2020年和2024年的民调和美国总统大选

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-04 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2199809

A. Barnett, Arnaud Sarfati

{"title":"The Polls and the US Presidential Election in 2020 ….and 2024","authors":"A. Barnett, Arnaud Sarfati","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2023.2199809","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2023.2199809","url":null,"abstract":"Arguably, the single greatest determinant of US public policy is the identity of the president. And if trusted, polls not only provide forecasts about presidential-election outcomes but can act to shape those outcomes. Looking ahead to the 2024 US presidential election and recognizing that polls before the 2020 presidential election were sharply criticized, we consider whether such harsh assessments are warranted. Initially, we explore whether such polls as processed by the sophisticated aggregator FiveThirtyEight successfully forecast actual 2020 state-by-state outcomes. We evaluate FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts using customized statistical methods not used previously, methods that take account of likely correlations among election outcomes in similar states. We find that, taken together, the pollsters and FiveThirtyEight did an excellent job in predicting who would win in individual states, even those “tipping point” states where forecasting is more difficult. However, we also find that FiveThirtyEight underestimated Donald Trump’s vote shares by state to a modest but statistically significant extent. We further consider how the polls performed when the more primitive aggregator Real Clear Politics combined their results, and then how well single statewide polls performed without aggregation. It emerges that both Real Clear Politics and the individual polls fared surprisingly well.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46241583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0