Observational Study of the Effect of the Juvenile Stay-At-Home Order on SARS-CoV-2 Infection Spread in Saline County, Arkansas

IF 1.5 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-03-09 DOI:10.1080/2330443X.2022.2050326

N. Hwang, S. Chatterjee, Y. Di, Sharmodeep Bhattacharyya

{"title":"Observational Study of the Effect of the Juvenile Stay-At-Home Order on SARS-CoV-2 Infection Spread in Saline County, Arkansas","authors":"N. Hwang, S. Chatterjee, Y. Di, Sharmodeep Bhattacharyya","doi":"10.1080/2330443X.2022.2050326","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We assess the treatment effect of juvenile stay-at-home orders (JSAHO) on reducing the rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection spread in Saline County (“Saline”), Arkansas, by examining the difference between Saline’s and control Arkansas counties’ changes in daily and mean log infection rates of pretreatment (March 28–April 5, 2020) and treatment periods (April 6–May 6, 2020). A synthetic control county is constructed based on the parallel-trends assumption, least-squares fitting on pretreatment and socio-demographic covariates, and elastic-net-based methods, from which the counterfactual outcome is predicted and the treatment effect is estimated using the difference-in-differences, the synthetic control, and the changes-in-changes methodologies. Both the daily and average treatment effects of JSAHO are shown to be significant. Despite its narrow scope and lack of enforcement for compliance, JSAHO reduced the rate of the infection spread in Saline. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Statistics and Public Policy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2022.2050326","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract We assess the treatment effect of juvenile stay-at-home orders (JSAHO) on reducing the rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection spread in Saline County (“Saline”), Arkansas, by examining the difference between Saline’s and control Arkansas counties’ changes in daily and mean log infection rates of pretreatment (March 28–April 5, 2020) and treatment periods (April 6–May 6, 2020). A synthetic control county is constructed based on the parallel-trends assumption, least-squares fitting on pretreatment and socio-demographic covariates, and elastic-net-based methods, from which the counterfactual outcome is predicted and the treatment effect is estimated using the difference-in-differences, the synthetic control, and the changes-in-changes methodologies. Both the daily and average treatment effects of JSAHO are shown to be significant. Despite its narrow scope and lack of enforcement for compliance, JSAHO reduced the rate of the infection spread in Saline. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

查看原文本刊更多论文

阿肯色州Saline县青少年居家令对严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型感染传播影响的观察研究

摘要我们通过检查Saline县和阿肯色州对照县在预处理（2020年3月28日至4月5日）和治疗期（2020年4月6日至5月6日）的每日和平均对数感染率变化的差异，评估了青少年居家令（JSAHO）在降低阿肯色州Saline县（“Saline”）严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型感染传播率方面的治疗效果。基于平行趋势假设、预处理和社会人口协变量的最小二乘拟合以及基于弹性网的方法，构建了一个综合控制县，从中预测反事实结果，并使用差异差异、综合控制和变化变化方法估计治疗效果。JSAHO的每日和平均治疗效果都很显著。尽管JSAHO的范围很窄，而且缺乏强制执行，但它降低了Saline的感染传播率。本文的补充材料可在线获取。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊