Infectious Diseases eJournal最新文献

{"title":"Review on Novel Corona Virus (nCOVID or COVID-19): Worldwide Pandemic","authors":"M. Israil","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3566747","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3566747","url":null,"abstract":"This article is brief review about the novel corona virus disease (nCOVID) or corona virus disease -19 (COVID-19) and its impact over the globe. Its typically deals with the effect in various countries with the comparative study of confirmed cases, recovery ratio and death ratio of COVID-19. This disease affects the respiratory system and it spread through the droplets of saliva, cough and sneeze of nose of infected people COVID-19 was first time reported in Wuhan city of Hubei Province of china in December 2019 which is later on 11 March 2020 becomes pandemic declared by world health organization.","PeriodicalId":430418,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases eJournal","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128322081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Early Effects of Coronavirus-Related Social Distancing Restrictions on Brands","authors":"Catherine Tucker, Shuyi Yu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3566612","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3566612","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents some of the first evidence on the effect of the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the US on retail footfall traffic. The paper uses granular visit data from cell-phone tracking to estimate the shift in visits to different types of restaurants as coronavirus spread in the USA across the first three weeks of March 2020. The descriptive empirical work provides three useful insights. First, the precise level of coronavirus spread in the state or the timing of any in-person dining ban in the state has had far smaller effects than the pronounced nationwide overall collapse in demand. Second, there is little evidence of substitution towards restaurants focused on delivery as a result of the bans. Though dine-in restaurants suffered the largest drop in customers as a result of state-imposed restaurant bans, quick-service restaurants experienced a steep decline. Last, the biggest individual effects of these state-specific bans appears to have been top-ranked brands focusing on full service dining. Both top and non top-ranked brands suffered drops for restaurants not focused on dining in, with top brands suffering a slightly smaller decline.","PeriodicalId":430418,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116928807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Deadly is Covid-19? Understanding the Difficulties with Estimation of its Fatality Rate","authors":"A. Atkeson","doi":"10.21034/sr.598","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.598","url":null,"abstract":"To understand how best to combat COVID-19, we must understand how deadly is the disease. There is a substantial debate in the epidemiological lit- erature as to whether the fatality rate is 1% or 0.1% or somewhere in between. In this note, I use an SIR model to examine why it is difficult to estimate the fatality rate from the disease and how long we might have to wait to resolve this question absent a large-scale randomized testing program. I focus on un- certainty over the joint distribution of the fatality rate and the initial number of active cases at the start of the epidemic around January 15, 2020. I show how the model with a high initial number of active cases and a low fatality rate gives the same predictions for the evolution of the number of deaths in the early stages of the pandemic as the same model with a low initial number of active cases and a high fatality rate. The problem of distinguishing these two parameterizations of the model becomes more severe in the presence of effective mitigation measures. As discussed by many, this uncertainty could be resolved now with large-scale randomized testing.","PeriodicalId":430418,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases eJournal","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125807163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uncovering a Behavioral Strategy for Establishing New Habits: Evidence from Incentives for Medication Adherence in Uganda","authors":"Chad Stecher, B. Mukasa, S. Linnemayr","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3545590","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3545590","url":null,"abstract":"Incentives are used to improve many health-related behaviors, but evidence is mixed for their effectiveness both during the incentivization period and, even more so, on the persistence of the behavior after incentives are withdrawn. In this paper, we present the results of a randomized controlled trial that successfully uses incentives to improve medication adherence among HIV-infected patients in Uganda over 20 months, and follows the sample for another 6 months to measure the persistence of these behavioral improvements. Our study contributes to the literature on habit formation by identifying a behavioral strategy that is associated with persistently high medication adherence after controlling for observable individual-level characteristics and the receipt of incentives. We find evidence supporting a psychological theory of habits as reflexive context-behavior associations, which suggests new ways of designing incentive-based interventions for better promoting persistent, healthier behaviors.","PeriodicalId":430418,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases eJournal","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123618070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unexpected HIV Infections in Young Women in South Africa","authors":"D. Gisselquist, Simon Collery","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3306281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3306281","url":null,"abstract":"Unexpected HIV infections (not from sex, mother-to-child, or injection drug use) are common in Africa’s generalized epidemics. A 2011-2015 randomized controlled trial of cash transfers conditioned on high school attendance to reduce HIV incidence in young women in South Africa had no impact on HIV incidence but could nevertheless lead to more effective HIV prevention messages and programs. The study team has provided enough information on women’s self-reported sexual behaviour to estimate sex accounts for only a small minority of their HIV infections. At baseline 7.5% of 2,533 women aged 13-20 years reported unprotected sex in the previous three months. During 1-3 years of follow-up, women reported unprotected sex in the previous three months at 9% of annual visits. From published accounts of women’s self-reported sexual behaviour, with some (intended high) estimates to fill in for collected but unreported data, we estimate sex accounts for 7.6 (4.0%) of 188 HIV infections recognized during the trial, including 2.2 (2.7%) of 81 prevalent infections at baseline and 5.4 (5.0%) of 107 incident infections during follow-up. This conclusion challenges researchers to improve their efforts to find the sources of women’s infections, including tracing and testing partners and asking about blood exposures. This conclusion also challenges the Government of South Africa to investigate unexpected infections to find and stop their sources.","PeriodicalId":430418,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases eJournal","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127177060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Antibiotic Prescribing and Sociodemographic Deprivation – From General Index to Specific Domains","authors":"R. Armon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3263497","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3263497","url":null,"abstract":"Objectives: Analyse the variance associated with the domains of the English Index of Multiple Deprivation (2015) as predictors of antibiotic prescribing. Methods: Deprivation and prescribing data for Clinical Commissioning Groups in England were collected, tabulated and used to build regression models characterising the relationship between antibiotic prescribing and indices of deprivation in the domains of education, health, employment, income, services and living environment. Results: The Index and 6 out of the 7 deprivation domains predicted antibiotic prescribing as reported (<0.001) and explained 21-38% of the variance. The domain of Education, Training and Skills emerged as a key factor (R2=0.38266) whereas employment explained as much variance in prescribing as health (R2=0.23408 and 0.23549 respectively). Conclusions: Individual indices of deprivation such as education and employment can account for the variance in antibiotic prescribing to a similar or a greater extent than health or the Index as a whole. Predictive indices provide new insights into the ways in which socio-demographic deprivation affects prescribing and can serve in the design of future more targeted interventions, such as those to lower unwarranted antibiotic prescribing.","PeriodicalId":430418,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases eJournal","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130969287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Nonparametric Projection-Based Estimator for the Probability of Causation, with Application to Water Sanitation in Kenya","authors":"Maria Cuellar, Edward H. Kennedy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3257980","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3257980","url":null,"abstract":"Current estimation methods for the probability of causation (PC) make strong parametric assumptions or are inefficient. We derive a nonparametric influence-function-based estimator for a projection of PC, which allows for simple interpretation and valid inference by making weak structural assumptions. We apply our estimator to real data from an experiment in Kenya, which found, by estimating the average treatment effect, that protecting water springs reduces childhood disease. However, before scaling up this intervention, it is important to determine whether it was the exposure, and not something else, that caused the outcome. Indeed, we find that some children, who were exposed to a high concentration of bacteria in drinking water and had a diarrheal disease, would likely have contracted the disease absent the exposure since the estimated PC for an average child in this study is 0.12 with a 95% confidence interval of (0.11, 0.13). Our nonparametric method offers researchers a way to estimate PC, which is essential if one wishes to determine not only the average treatment effect, but also whether an exposure likely caused the observed outcome.","PeriodicalId":430418,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases eJournal","volume":"50 12","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120983955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Logistic Model for Predicting Human Papillomavirus Awareness","authors":"Yihan Xu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3153006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3153006","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to assess the latest patterns of human papillomavirus (HPV) awareness in the general population and to develop a model that identifies the key determinants of HPV awareness to provide evidence for future HPV health campaigns.","PeriodicalId":430418,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124636354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Information and Disease Prevention: Tuberculosis Dispensaries","authors":"C. W. Hansen, P. Jensen, P. Egedesø","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2728290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2728290","url":null,"abstract":"Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of death worldwide according to the WHO. This paper estimates the effect of TB dispensaries, designed to prevent the spread of the disease before the advent of modern medicine. Our difference-in-differences estimation reveals that the roll-out of the TB dispensaries across Danish cities led to a 16 percent decline in the TB mortality rate, but no signifficant impacts on other diseases when performing placebo regressions. We obtain very similar estimates from a triple-differences setup, warranting a causal interpretation of our findings. Overall, our conclusion suggests, contrary to McKeown (1976), that public policy played an important role for the decline in TB mortality. It also suggests that dispensaries are of policy relevance for developing countries today as a measure to counter the externalities created by TB and modern drug resistant strains.","PeriodicalId":430418,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases eJournal","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125631938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recurring Outbreaks of an Infection Apparently Targeting Immune Function, and Consequent Unprecedented Growth in Medical Admission and Costs in the United Kingdom: A Review","authors":"Rodney P. Jones","doi":"10.9734/BJMMR/2015/14845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/BJMMR/2015/14845","url":null,"abstract":"Background: The National Health Service (NHS) in the UK has been beset by unprecedented growth in emergency admissions to hospital which are specifically medical in nature, while surgical and trauma admissions are only showing the level of low growth expected from demographic change, or what is called the ageing population. There has never been an adequate explanation for this dichotomy. An Infectious Basis: The proposed infectious basis rests upon the observation that growth in medical admissions occurs in spurts which occur approximately five years apart, albeit three years between spurts have also been observed during the 1990’s. It is these spurts which are driving the long-term growth, rather than the relatively minor growth which occurs in the interval between the spurts. These periods of high growth are characterized by spikes in all-cause mortality, and typically result in a 15% increases in admissions to the medical group of specialties. However much higher growth is seen for particular conditions/diagnoses which appear to have a common Review Article Jones; BJMMR, 6(8): 735-770, 2015; Article no.BJMMR.2015.251 736 immune function basis via infection, inflammation and autoimmunity. These outbreaks can be seen across Europe, and the last three outbreaks commenced around Mar-02, Mar-05 and Mar-10 with subsequent spread over the next two years. The middle of these three outbreaks had the lowest increase in deaths and medical admissions. Implications: There is now an overwhelming body of evidence pointing to a recurring series of infectious-like events. In the UK, the 2012/2013 outbreak led to 45,000 extra deaths while across the 27 EU countries, each outbreak appears to result in somewhere in excess of 467,000 deaths. In Europe, the outbreaks tend to occur earlier in Denmark, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia, while they tend to occur later in the UK, Belgium, Greece and Slovenia. Emphasis now needs to switch toward clinical studies which screen the population for changes in the levels of specific IgM and IgG antibodies against a range of potential candidate organisms, and post mortem examination of the tissues of persons who die from a particular range of conditions such as neurological disorders including dementia and Alzheimer’s; respiratory and gastrointestinal tract diseases, and cardio/vascular conditions. Conclusion: This new disease has the potential to be a highly disruptive discovery involving changes in fundamental health care policy, and our understanding of the role of immune function in the exacerbation of a range of common medical conditions.","PeriodicalId":430418,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases eJournal","volume":"59 14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114128509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}