SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety最新文献

{"title":"Exploration of the Heterogeneity among Elderly Drivers by Analyzing\u0000 Traffic Crash Data: A Case Study in Pennsylvania, USA","authors":"Zihao Zhang, Chenhui Liu","doi":"10.4271/09-12-03-0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4271/09-12-03-0008","url":null,"abstract":"With population aging and life expectancy increasing, elderly drivers have been\u0000 increasing quickly in the United States and the heterogeneity among them with\u0000 age is also increasingly non-ignorable. Based on traffic crash data of\u0000 Pennsylvania from 2011 to 2019, this study was designed to identify this\u0000 heterogeneity by quantifying the relationship between age and crash\u0000 characteristics using linear regression. It is found that for elderly\u0000 driver-involved crashes, the proportion leading to casualties significantly\u0000 increases with age. Meanwhile, the proportions at night, on rainy days, on snowy\u0000 days, and involving driving under the influence (DUI) decrease linearly with\u0000 age, implying that elderly drivers tend to avoid traveling in risky\u0000 scenarios.\u0000\u0000 \u0000Regarding collision types, elderly driver-involved crashes are mainly composed of\u0000 angle, rear-end, and hit-fixed-object collisions, proportions of which increase\u0000 linearly, decrease linearly, and keep consistent with age, respectively. The\u0000 increase in angle collisions is primarily attributed to more crashes at\u0000 stop-controlled intersections. The findings suggest that it may be inappropriate\u0000 to take elderly drivers as homogeneous or simply categorize them into several\u0000 age groups. Instead, regarding elderly drivers, age should be taken as\u0000 continuous in future studies to display their linearly changing trends. This is\u0000 one of the pioneering studies exploring the heterogeneity across elderly drivers\u0000 with age with solid data analysis. The findings are expected to provide new\u0000 insights for agencies to develop customized countermeasures regarding elderly\u0000 traffic safety in the aging society.","PeriodicalId":42847,"journal":{"name":"SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141004153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bayesian Network Model and Causal Analysis of Ship Collisions in\u0000 Zhejiang Coastal Waters","authors":"Yanfei Tian, Hui Qiao, Lin Hua, Wanzheng Ai","doi":"10.4271/09-12-01-0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4271/09-12-01-0006","url":null,"abstract":"For taking counter measures in advance to prevent accidental risks, it is of\u0000 significance to explore the causes and evolutionary mechanism of ship\u0000 collisions. This article collects 70 ship collision accidents in Zhejiang\u0000 coastal waters, where 60 cases are used for modeling while 10 cases are used for\u0000 verification (testing). By analyzing influencing factors (IFs) and causal chains\u0000 of accidents, a Bayesian network (BN) model with 19 causal nodes and 1\u0000 consequential node is constructed. Parameters of the BN model, namely the\u0000 conditional probability tables (CPTs), are determined by mathematical statistics\u0000 methods and Bayesian formulas. Regarding each testing case, the BN model’s\u0000 prediction on probability of occurrence is above 80% (approaching 100% indicates\u0000 the certainty of occurrence), which verifies the availability of the model.\u0000 Causal analysis based on the backward reasoning process shows that H (Human\u0000 error) is the main IF resulting in ship collisions. The causal chain that\u0000 maximizes the likelihood of an accident occurring is: H1 (improper lookout) → H4\u0000 (underestimation of collision) → H7 (failure of taking effective\u0000 collision-avoidance measures) → H (human error) → C (ship collision). By\u0000 implementing sensitivity analysis process, key IFs of ship collisions are found\u0000 and are ranked as: H9 (improper emergency handling), H7 (failure of taking\u0000 effective collision-avoidance measures), H6 (without using safe speed), H4\u0000 (underestimation of collision), H1 (improper lookout), H3 (nonstandard duty), H8\u0000 (failure of fulfilling “giving way” responsibility), H5 (unaware of target\u0000 ships), and H2 (crew incompetence). Among them, H9 (improper emergency handling)\u0000 and H7 (failure to take effective collision-avoidance measures) have relatively\u0000 high sensitivity and greater impact on collision accidents. Results show that\u0000 the BN model can be used to analyze the causes of ship collisions in Zhejiang\u0000 coastal waters and to predict the probability of occurrence of accidents. The\u0000 research will provide theoretical and practical support for exploring the causes\u0000 and revealing the evolutionary mechanism of accidents, and for taking targeted\u0000 risk control measures to prevent future accidents.","PeriodicalId":42847,"journal":{"name":"SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140718262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the Impact of Rubberized Asphalt on Reducing Hip Fracture\u0000 Risk in Elderly Populations Using Human Body Models","authors":"Pooya Sahandifar, V. Wallqvist, S. Kleiven","doi":"10.4271/09-12-01-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4271/09-12-01-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Compared to other age groups, older adults are at more significant risk of hip\u0000 fracture when they fall. In addition to the higher risk of falls for the\u0000 elderly, fear of falls can reduce this population’s outdoor activity. Various\u0000 preventive solutions have been proposed to reduce the risk of hip fractures\u0000 ranging from wearable hip protectors to indoor flooring systems. A previously\u0000 developed rubberized asphalt mixture demonstrated the potential to reduce the\u0000 risk of head injury. In the current study, the capability of the rubberized\u0000 asphalt sample was evaluated for the risk of hip fracture for an average elderly\u0000 male and an average elderly female. A previously developed human body model was\u0000 positioned in a fall configuration that would give the highest impact forces\u0000 toward regular asphalt. Three different rubber contents with 14, 28, 33 weight\u0000 percent (% wt.) were implemented as the ground alongside one regular\u0000 non-rubberized (0%) asphalt mixture, one baseline, and one extra-compliant\u0000 playground rubber-composite material. The whole-body model was simulated to fall\u0000 on the rubberized asphalt mixtures with an initial vertical velocity of 3 m/s\u0000 with a 10° trunk angle and +10° anterior pelvis rotation. The impact forces were\u0000 measured on the femoral head, and a previously developed hip fracture risk\u0000 function was used to compare the rubberized asphalt mixtures. It was found that\u0000 the rubberized asphalt mixture with 33% wt. rubber can reduce the impact forces\u0000 up to 10% for the elderly male and female model compared to regular asphalt. The\u0000 impact forces were most reduced for the extra-compliant playground material,\u0000 with a 23% reduction for the female model. The risk of injury for the asphalt\u0000 mixture with 33% wt. rubber was reduced up to 18% for elderly females and 20 for\u0000 elderly males, compared to regular asphalt. The extra-compliant playground\u0000 material had the most reduction of hip fracture risk for both sexes, 39 and 43%\u0000 for elderly females and males, respectively.","PeriodicalId":42847,"journal":{"name":"SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140728763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Experimental Study on Ship Squat in Intermediate Channel","authors":"Liji Long, Jilun Miao, Wanxing Zhao, Chenglin Huang","doi":"10.4271/09-12-01-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4271/09-12-01-0005","url":null,"abstract":"<div>The sinking and trimming of the hull in the channel would directly affect the handling and navigation safety of the ship. In view of the ship sinking, a series of empirical formulas to estimate the subsidence have been put forward for vessel in spacious shallow water areas. However, most of the equations are based on seagoing vessels. They are not suitable for inland ships with small scales, shallow drafts, and narrow navigation width. Till now, research on ship squat in intermediate channel has not yielded more practical results. Here, a generalized physical model is used to study the sinking of 500t class ships in restricted intermediate channel under different channel widths, water depths, and speeds. The main factors affecting the squat are analyzed, the empirical relation is compared with the measured squat. The <i>Barrass</i> equation is modified, and the calculation relation of the settlement suitable for inland river ships is proposed. The correlation coefficient <i>R</i>² of the modified equation is 0.818, the standard error is 0.046, and the maximum error is 0.14 m, which can be used as a reference for inland waterway design research.</div>","PeriodicalId":42847,"journal":{"name":"SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135290661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study of Vehicle-Based Metrics for Assessing the Severity of Side Impacts","authors":"Emad Sadeghipour","doi":"10.4271/09-12-01-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4271/09-12-01-0004","url":null,"abstract":"<div>A research program has been launched in Iran to develop an evaluation method for comparing the safety performance of vehicles in real-world collisions with crash test results. The goal of this research program is to flag vehicle models whose safety performance in real-world accidents does not match their crash test results. As part of this research program, a metric is needed to evaluate the severity of side impacts in crash tests and real-world accidents. In this work, several vehicle-based metrics were analyzed and calculated for a dataset of more than 500 side impact tests from the NHTSA crash test database. The correlation between the metric values and the dummy injury criteria was studied to find the most appropriate metric with the strongest correlation coefficient values with the dummy injury criteria. Delta-V and a newly created metric <span> <math> <mrow> <mi>T</mi> <msubsup> <mi>K</mi> <mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mn>0</mn> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> <mi>Y</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> </math> </span>, which is an indicator of the kinetic energy transferred to occupants in a 200 ms time interval and in the lateral direction, were found to be the most appropriate metric for assessing the crash severity of side impacts with strong correlation coefficients with head injury criteria such as HIC₃₆ and HIC₁₅, resultant spinal acceleration, and moderate correlation coefficients with average rib deflection and abdominal forces. Due to the need to calculate the metric based on EDR measurements, <span> <math> <mrow> <mi>T</mi> <msubsup> <mi>K</mi> <mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mn>0</mn> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> <mi>Y</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> </math> </span> was chosen as the side impact severity metric for the research program.</div>","PeriodicalId":42847,"journal":{"name":"SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136106808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distilled Routing Transformer for Driving Behavior Prediction","authors":"Jun Gao, Jiangang Yi, Yi Lu Murphey","doi":"10.4271/09-12-01-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4271/09-12-01-0003","url":null,"abstract":"<div>The uncertainty of a driver’s state, the variability of the traffic environment, and the complexity of road conditions have made driving behavior a critical factor affecting traffic safety. Accurate predicting of driving behavior is therefore crucial for ensuring safe driving. In this research, an efficient framework, distilled routing transformer (DRTR), is proposed for driving behavior prediction using multiple modality data, i.e., front view video frames and vehicle signals. First, a cross-modal attention distiller is introduced, which distills the cross-modal attention knowledge of a fusion-encoder transformer to guide the training of our DRTR and learn deep interactions between different modalities. Second, since the multi-modal learning usually requires information from the macro view to the micro view, a self-attention (SA)-routing module is custom-designed for SA layers in DRTR for dynamic scheduling of global and local attentions for each input instance. Finally, a Mogrifier long short-term memory (Mogrifier LSTM) network is employed for DRTR to predict driving behaviors. We applied our approach to real-world data collected during drives in both urban and freeway environments by an instrumented vehicle. The experimental results demonstrate that the DRTR can predict the imminent driving behavior effectively while enjoying a faster inference speed than other state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines.</div>","PeriodicalId":42847,"journal":{"name":"SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136359488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reviewers","authors":"Warren Hardy","doi":"10.4271/09-11-03-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4271/09-11-03-0015","url":null,"abstract":"<div>Reviewers</div>","PeriodicalId":42847,"journal":{"name":"SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134945600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thermal Modeling of the Electric Vehicle Fire Hazard Effects on Parking Building","authors":"Andrii Gavryliuk, Roman Yakovchuk, Yaroslav Ballo, Yuriy Rudyk","doi":"10.4271/09-11-03-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4271/09-11-03-0013","url":null,"abstract":"<div>The world community is constantly and rapidly moving toward the search for alternative and ecologically clean energy sources, including for transport, and Russia’s war against Ukraine only intensified and accelerated such processes. This trend in transport is reflected in the spread of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) with zero emission of harmful gases.</div> <div>Electric cars are experiencing a rapid increase in numbers, accompanied by the emergence of lesser-known risks. Among these hazards are the occurrence of fires in electric vehicles, primarily caused by component failures, notably the widely prevalent lithium-ion batteries.</div> <div>Fires of such cars have a different character compared to fires of vehicles powered by an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). In this study, using the fire dynamics simulator developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, a BEV fire was simulated on the example of the Tesla Model S. For this, a description of the objects and their physical characteristics were carried out, the input parameters of the BEV and environmental parameters were set, and a mathematical model of the development dynamics of fire was formed. According to the modeling results, it was found that the minimum fire protection distance from a BEV to the wall of buildings of various functional purposes should be at least 3 m, provided that the free fire development time is 600 s.</div>","PeriodicalId":42847,"journal":{"name":"SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136238020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of Kinetic Metrics in Submarining vs Non-Submarining Conditions for a 6YO Pediatric Human Body Model in Frontal Impacts","authors":"Bethany Williams, Jalaj Maheshwari","doi":"10.4271/09-11-02-0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4271/09-11-02-0020","url":null,"abstract":"<div>Field data has shown that belt-positioning boosters help reduce the risk of injury to children in a crash. This study builds on prior submarining work (Slusher et al. 2022) and aims to analyze kinetic metrics (which can be easily recorded from anthropomorphic test devices in crash tests) in submarining and non-submarining conditions for a 6-year-old pediatric human occupant in frontal crashes.</div>","PeriodicalId":42847,"journal":{"name":"SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136265332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Parametric Thoracic Spine Model Accounting for Geometric Variations by Age, Sex, Stature, and Body Mass Index","authors":"Lihan Lian, Michelle Baek, Sunwoo Ma, Monica Jones, Jingwen Hu","doi":"10.4271/09-11-02-0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4271/09-11-02-0012","url":null,"abstract":"<div>In this study, a parametric thoracic spine (T-spine) model was developed to account for morphological variations among the adult population. A total of 84 CT scans were collected, and the subjects were evenly distributed among age groups and both sexes. CT segmentation, landmarking, and mesh morphing were performed to map a template mesh onto the T-spine vertebrae for each sampled subject. Generalized procrustes analysis (GPA), principal component analysis (PCA), and linear regression analysis were then performed to investigate the morphological variations and develop prediction models. A total of 13 statistical models, including 12 T-spine vertebrae and a spinal curvature model, were combined to predict a full T-spine 3D geometry with any combination of age, sex, stature, and body mass index (BMI). A leave-one-out root mean square error (RMSE) analysis was conducted for each node of the mesh predicted by the statistical model for every T-spine vertebra. Most of the RMSEs were less than 2 mm across the 12 vertebral levels, indicating good accuracy. The presented parametric T-spine model can serve as a geometry basis for parametric human modeling or future crash test dummy designs to better assess T-spine injuries accounting for human diversity.</div>","PeriodicalId":42847,"journal":{"name":"SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136265333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}