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Taliban 2.0 and Afghanistan–Pakistan Relations 塔利班2.0与阿富汗-巴基斯坦关系
IF 0.9
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs Pub Date : 2022-11-24 DOI: 10.1177/23477970221130546
E. Hussain
{"title":"Taliban 2.0 and Afghanistan–Pakistan Relations","authors":"E. Hussain","doi":"10.1177/23477970221130546","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221130546","url":null,"abstract":"Afghanistan remained at the centre stage of regional and global politics owing to its unique geopolitical location in the Cold War period. Afghan jihad of the 1980s impacted not only Afghanistan but also its neighbours particularly Pakistan. In the post-Cold War period, civil war engulfed the war-ravaged and poverty-stricken country which was controlled by the Taliban in 1996. Pakistan recognised the Taliban rule which was ended by the American military might in the wake of 9/11. In the post-Taliban period, the USA-led NATO alliance experimented a Western-style political and economic order in tradition-bound Afghanistan. Paradoxically, after 20 years, different political personalities and presidential terms failed to stabilise the country. Since the Obama years the USA seemed more interested in Indo-Pacific than West Asia. Hence, it opted to withdraw from Afghanistan while doing a deal with the Taliban in Doha in February 2020. The withdrawal policy was operationalised by the Biden Administration. Since 15 August 2021 Afghanistan has been under the Taliban control for the second time, hence, it is termed Taliban 2.0 by this study. Compared to their first regime, the Taliban 2.0 has not been formally recognised by any country so far. Will the Taliban gain regional, if not, international recognition in the foreseeable future? Will Pakistan aid the Taliban in this respect? To what extent intra-Taliban friction impacts bilateral relations? How does Pakistan view Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and vice versa? And, above all, how will Afghanistan and Pakistan treat each other in the coming months? These are some crucial questions that this study attempts to address underpinned by primary and secondary sources.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45829046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Taliban 2.0 and US National Security Policy in Afghanistan 塔利班2.0与美国在阿富汗的国家安全政策
IF 0.9
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs Pub Date : 2022-11-24 DOI: 10.1177/23477970221129905
Joshua Snider
{"title":"Taliban 2.0 and US National Security Policy in Afghanistan","authors":"Joshua Snider","doi":"10.1177/23477970221129905","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221129905","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines from the point of view of the US national security policy, the causes and contexts for the US exit from Afghanistan and the factors that will influence the US policy in Afghanistan in the coming decade. It reviews the logic behind post-9/11 US ‘grand strategy’ and the evolution of the US national security policy in this period, which included the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan. It examines the evolution of the US deployment and factors which complicated the US strategic objectives in Afghanistan, including the persistent tension in the US national security objectives between counter-terrorism and nation-building objectives. It argues that the US faces limited palatable options regarding its post-withdrawal Afghanistan policy and that moving forward, policy will be constrained by a mix of situational and structural variables. These include US domestic politics, the Taliban regime itself (and its relationship with ISIS-K) and the region’s geopolitical winds, notably the strategic positions of Iran, Pakistan, China and to a lesser extent Russia.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45275978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Mulling the Contours of India’s Taliban Policy: Past, Present and Future Prospects 思考印度对塔利班政策的轮廓:过去、现在和未来前景
IF 0.9
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs Pub Date : 2022-11-05 DOI: 10.1177/23477970221129907
Gitika Commuri
{"title":"Mulling the Contours of India’s Taliban Policy: Past, Present and Future Prospects","authors":"Gitika Commuri","doi":"10.1177/23477970221129907","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221129907","url":null,"abstract":"India is faced with a conundrum—how to engage with an Afghanistan that is once again led by the Taliban. The question is less about whether to engage and more about how to engage. To understand this turn of events that is both surprising and yet seemingly inevitable, this article examines India’s policies vis-à-vis the Taliban since its early rise to power in 1990. It examines this relationship in four phases which correlate with the fortunes of the Taliban as an opposition and a governing regime, contending that these phases are characterised; by a potential discourse of engagement that does not translate into policy outcomes; distancing and opposition; gradual indirect acquiesce to its growing presence; and finally, détente of sorts without formal recognition. These policy transitions are a consequence of regional and global power play as well as domestic preoccupations of India. They span India’s secular and Hindutva-driven domestic narratives of self. The significance of this article lies in casting a broad overview of the existing literature and identifying patterns of engagement.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44222994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Collapse of State in Afghanistan: A Repeat of History? 阿富汗国家的崩溃：历史的重演？
IF 0.9
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs Pub Date : 2022-11-05 DOI: 10.1177/23477970221129901
Nasir A. Andisha
{"title":"The Collapse of State in Afghanistan: A Repeat of History?","authors":"Nasir A. Andisha","doi":"10.1177/23477970221129901","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221129901","url":null,"abstract":"The sudden and stunning fall of Kabul on 15 August 2021 to the Taliban raised many questions about the immediate and underlying causes of the state’s collapse, the consequences of the US/NATO’s retreat, and what the Taliban’s military victory meant for Afghanistan, the region and beyond. This article focuses on the main causes of the collapse and attempts to offer an uncomplicated yet inclusive picture first by explaining the immediate overriding security and political triggers and then by examining the underlying strategic, structural and historical factors. A ground-level assessment of the situation indicated that the resumption of the Doha talks in late 2018 and its subsequent political, diplomatic and military repercussions building over months contributed to the precipitous collapse. However, a bird’s eye-view analysis revealed that structural flaws in the design, process and implementation of the post 9/11 state-building efforts in Afghanistan such as a top-down, highly centralised and winner takes all system, and a weak public participation and accountability mechanism were among the underlying failure factors.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41555499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Russia’s Views on and Initial Responses to the 2021 Strategic Retake of Afghanistan by the Taliban 俄罗斯对塔利班2021年战略重新夺回阿富汗的看法和初步反应
IF 0.9
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs Pub Date : 2022-11-05 DOI: 10.1177/23477970221133145
A. Muraviev
{"title":"Russia’s Views on and Initial Responses to the 2021 Strategic Retake of Afghanistan by the Taliban","authors":"A. Muraviev","doi":"10.1177/23477970221133145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221133145","url":null,"abstract":"The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in mid-2021 has not taken the Russian authorities by surprise. For over 20 years, Moscow was observing the strategic rise of the fundamentalist militant movement with concern, which was largely triggered by domestic security considerations as well as potential challenges to security and stability across the former Soviet Central Asia. However, since the re-establishment of the Taliban’s rule in Kabul, Moscow’s approach underwent a gradual change, from being negative and alarmist to a more cautiously pragmatic one. This article will review the evolution of Russia’s perceptions of the Taliban, highlight Moscow’s principal concerns, identify the initial set of response measures following the country’s takeover in 2021 and entertain several scenarios of the Kremlin’s future approaches vis-a-vis the new rulers in Kabul.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42367504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
My Enemy’s Enemy: Iran’s Approach to the Re-emergence of the Taliban 《我敌人的敌人:伊朗对塔利班死灰复燃的态度》
IF 0.9
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1177/23477970221130144
Parisa Abbasian
{"title":"My Enemy’s Enemy: Iran’s Approach to the Re-emergence of the Taliban","authors":"Parisa Abbasian","doi":"10.1177/23477970221130144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221130144","url":null,"abstract":"Over the years, Iran’s approach to the Taliban has had ups and downs. Iran welcomed the United States’ 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and worked with the American forces to overthrow the Taliban. Nevertheless, it was not long before Iran adopted an utterly opposite policy by compromising with the Taliban and supplying it with political and military support. This article examines domestic and regional factors contributing to this dramatic change in Iran’s behaviour toward the Taliban. It provides an assessment of how Tehran’s threat perception of the US military presence across its borders, the rise of the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, the increasing Afghan drug trafficking, and the influx of refugees from Afghanistan to Iranian territory have prompted Tehran to pursue a different approach toward the Taliban. It also explains how Iran’s intention to sustain water supply from Afghanistan’s rivers to the eastern provinces of Iran and resume profitable trade with Afghanistan has acted as a catalyst in expanding Iran–Taliban relations. This article argues that Iran sees the Taliban as an agent to weaken the United States, prevent the spread of ISIS in Khorasan, and strengthen Iran’s influence in Central Asia. The article concludes that although the Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan poses challenges for Iran, the benefits it brings are such that it prevents Tehran from relinquishing ties with the Taliban.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42485166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Pragmatic Neighbour: China’s Afghanistan Policy 2001–2021 务实的邻居:中国的阿富汗政策2001-2021
IF 0.9
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs Pub Date : 2022-10-30 DOI: 10.1177/23477970221129909
Stephen P. Westcott
{"title":"The Pragmatic Neighbour: China’s Afghanistan Policy 2001–2021","authors":"Stephen P. Westcott","doi":"10.1177/23477970221129909","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221129909","url":null,"abstract":"China has remained detached from the events in Afghanistan, generally playing a passive role during the US-led war in its neighbour and refusing to actively support any parties in the conflict. However, Beijing was prompt to embrace Taliban 2.0 as the new power in Kabul as Ashraf Ghani’s regime collapsed in the wake of the US withdrawal in August 2021. At first glance, this appears to be a shift in policy from China’s previous apathetic stance to actively taking the Taliban’s side. Yet, a closer look at China’s actions reveal that it has maintained a consistently narrow and pragmatic policy towards its neighbour since 2002. This article unpacks China’s remarkably consistent Afghanistan policy, identifying its basis in two primary interests: ensuring stability in its Xinjiang province and trade with Central Asia. As long as Beijing is able to secure the willing cooperation from the main parties within Afghanistan to securing these interests, it is indifferent as to who the authority in Kabul is.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44422635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reluctant or Pragmatic? The GCC’s Policy towards Taliban-Led Afghanistan 不情愿还是务实?海湾合作委员会对塔利班领导的阿富汗的政策
IF 0.9
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs Pub Date : 2022-10-30 DOI: 10.1177/23477970221130654
B. Poornima
{"title":"Reluctant or Pragmatic? The GCC’s Policy towards Taliban-Led Afghanistan","authors":"B. Poornima","doi":"10.1177/23477970221130654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221130654","url":null,"abstract":"The Taliban’s capture of Kabul in 2021 has presented the neighbourhood and beyond with layers of challenges to deal with, particularly for the Persian Gulf. On the one hand, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members are concerned about the repercussions of the change of guard in Kabul vis-à-vis terrorism and refugee-related instability. On the other, the withdrawal of US forces has questioned their policy priorities, leading them to consider variegating their international partners for their security imperatives. The developing situation in Afghanistan can alter the geopolitical equations in the Persian Gulf. The growing importance that Qatar has received from the US and the Taliban due to its status as a mediator and Turkey’s entry using the Doha card are among the main influencing factors. The GCC governments neither praised nor criticised the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan. Their responses so far, though cautious and limited, have been pragmatic, putting their national interest first. However, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar will continue to be relevant in Afghan affairs either directly or indirectly through diplomatic and economic overtures as they realise that a stable Afghanistan is in the best interest of the GCC. Such moves are crucial to ensure the crisis does not spill over to the Gulf. Through its diplomatic, economic and religious clout, the GCC can catalyse the international community to devise a multi-pronged approach to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46730543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Afghanistan in Anarchy: America’s Withdrawal, Taliban Rule and Regional Implications for Central Asia 无政府状态下的阿富汗:美国撤军、塔利班统治及其对中亚地区的影响
IF 0.9
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs Pub Date : 2022-10-30 DOI: 10.1177/23477970221129908
Charles J. Sullivan
{"title":"Afghanistan in Anarchy: America’s Withdrawal, Taliban Rule and Regional Implications for Central Asia","authors":"Charles J. Sullivan","doi":"10.1177/23477970221129908","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221129908","url":null,"abstract":"This article analyses the geopolitical repercussions of America’s military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban’s seizure of power in 2021. Since the Afghan Taliban continue to disregard the principal terms of the 2020 Doha Agreement brokered by the United States, Afghanistan is descending into chaos. The Afghan Taliban is unable to provide ordinary Afghans with basic living necessities, lacks international recognition and must contend against other violent extremist organizations operating within the country. Thus far, the Central Asian republics (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) have exhibited varying responses to the Afghan Taliban’s takeover. While the ‘Stans’ are all anxious about the potential spread of radical Islam and a looming humanitarian crisis, the greater threat to Ashgabat, Tashkent and Dushanbe, as well as Bishkek and Nur-Sultan, lies with the United States pivoting away from Central Asia and the Russian Federation acquiring greater leverage over regional security issues.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43955659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Book review: Abdul Basit, Hostility: A Diplomat’s Diary on Pakistan-India Relations 书评:Abdul Basit，《敌意:一位外交官关于巴印关系的日记》
IF 0.9
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/23477970221098499
M. Bhat
{"title":"Book review: Abdul Basit, Hostility: A Diplomat’s Diary on Pakistan-India Relations","authors":"M. Bhat","doi":"10.1177/23477970221098499","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221098499","url":null,"abstract":"Abdul Basit, Hostility: A Diplomat’s Diary on Pakistan-India Relations. HarperCollins, 2021, 331 pp (Hardback). ISBN: 978-93-5422-645-8.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43949359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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