Science of the Total Environment最新文献

{"title":"Nature-inspired bio-composites for phosphate sequestration and recovery: Green synthesis, mechanistic insights, and multi-stage optimization","authors":"Hafiz Muhammad Umer Aslam ,&nbsp;Saurabh Singh ,&nbsp;Mohiuddin Quadir ,&nbsp;Achintya N. Bezbaruah","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Phosphorus-induced eutrophication poses major environmental and economic threats. This study used iron-chitosan composite bead (FeCSB) as an eco-friendly adsorbent for aqueous phosphate removal. The Taguchi method identified pH, contact time, and initial phosphate concentration as key factors. Response surface methodology showed interaction effects and optimal removal conditions. The optimal FeCSB removed 90–97 % phosphate within 120–180 min from waters containing 100 μg P/L to 5 mg P/L. The maximum adsorption capacity of the beads was 57.75 mg/g at neutral pH, and that increased to 117.66 mg/g at pH 2. The adsorption process followed the Freundlich isotherm and the pseudo-second-order kinetic model. The point-of-zero-charge was determined to be 6.8. Electrostatic interaction, complexation, and intra-particle diffusion were identified as the main mechanisms for phosphate removal. XPS analysis revealed both inner-sphere Fe–O–P bonding and outer-sphere interactions involving Fe–OH and amine groups. The FTIR data supported these observations with spectra showing P–O stretching vibrations and shifts in -OH and -NH bands. EDX mapping confirmed the successful incorporation of phosphate into FeCSB. The dried form of the beads showed 27.3 % higher removal relative to the wet form. The use of glutaraldehyde (GA) crosslinker enhanced the mechanical integrity of the adsorbent and reusability over multiple cycles. When applied to municipal wastewater, FeCSB removed &gt;95 % of phosphate. The beads developed here are robust and versatile with potential use for eutrophic water restoration and wastewater treatment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"994 ","pages":"Article 180019"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deep learning based aerosol particle classification for the detection of ship emissions","authors":"Guanzhong Wang ,&nbsp;Heinrich Ruser ,&nbsp;Julian Schade ,&nbsp;Seongho Jeong ,&nbsp;Johannes Passig ,&nbsp;Ralf Zimmermann ,&nbsp;Günther Dollinger ,&nbsp;Thomas Adam","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180041","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increasing recognition of the impact of shipping on air pollution has led the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to establish Sulfur Emission Control Areas (SECA) to reduce emissions. Within SECA, ships must switch to low-sulfur fuel or use a scrubber technique to clean their exhaust gases. Conventional monitoring methods are limited by detection range, real-time data availability, and challenges in source attribution. This study describes a monitoring system that combines single-particle mass spectrometry (SPMS) with deep learning to overcome these shortcomings. SPMS can reveal the chemical composition of individual airborne aerosol particles, with the capability to detect emissions over several kilometers, enabling real-time pollution source identification. To automatically process the complex mass spectral data, a convolutional neural network (CNN) was designed, achieving 92 % accuracy in classifying 13 distinct classes of abundant aerosol particles. The results demonstrate that the proposed detection system enables to automatically classify aerosol particles from multiple sources. Of particular concern in this study is the in-situ analysis of particles from ship exhaust plumes, to rapidly identify ships running on polluting heavy fuel oil. Focusing on unique particles containing vanadium (⁵¹V⁺/⁶⁷[VO]⁺), nickel (^58/60Ni⁺), and iron (^54/56Fe⁺) ions, designated as V-rich class, the real-time classification makes it possible to reliably detect particles from heavy fuel oil (HFO) combustion. In addition, to locate the emission sources, the CNN's predictions are linked to local wind measurements and ship trajectories provided by the Automatic Identification System (AIS). During a one-week monitoring period, 21 ships passing the measurement site 80 times in distances of up to ∼1.3 km were detected using HFO.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"994 ","pages":"Article 180041"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144595861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Molecular characterization and optical properties of methanol-soluble brown carbon chromophores in a metropolitan area of northeastern Asia","authors":"Yu-Chieh Ting ,&nbsp;Yi-Ru Ko ,&nbsp;Yueh-Ling Hung ,&nbsp;Cheng-Hua Ma ,&nbsp;Cheng-Chih Hsu ,&nbsp;Yu-Hsiang Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The light-absorbing chromophores in atmospheric brown carbon (BrC) remain poorly characterized, impeding our understanding of BrC chemistry, its optical properties, emission sources, and accurate representation in models. This knowledge gap hinders the assessment of BrC's role in radiative balance and photochemistry, which is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies. This study conducted molecular characterization of BrC chromophores in PM_2.5 in a metropolitan area of northeastern Asia. Identified chromophores in all periods included CHO, CHON and CHOS compounds. Phthalic acids, nitroaromatic compounds (NACs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were identified and associated with vehicle emissions, biomass burning, or secondary formation, while CHOS compounds were primarily attributed to ship engine exhaust. NACs and PAHs were observed to significantly contribute to light absorption, with nitrophenolic compounds playing a dominant role in near-UV region. The light absorption of the compounds identified in non-polluted winter was most significant at the wavelength of 362 nm, while that in summer was at 314 nm. Moreover, lignin-like compounds were prevalent during polluted periods. This research identified diverse brown carbon chromophores, improving our understanding of their impacts on air quality and climate. While further analysis of unidentified substances remains necessary, this study provide a valuable foundation for future investigations into the sources and formation mechanisms of BrC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"994 ","pages":"Article 180054"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144595892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interspecies transmission and genome heterogeneity of porcine-originated Rotavirus A between domestic pigs and wildlife in the Croatian ecosystem","authors":"Valentina Kunić ,&nbsp;Ljubo Barbić ,&nbsp;Jakob Šimić ,&nbsp;Tina Mikuletič ,&nbsp;Rok Kogoj ,&nbsp;Tom Koritnik ,&nbsp;Andrej Steyer ,&nbsp;Dean Konjević ,&nbsp;Miljenko Bujanić ,&nbsp;Marina Prišlin Šimac ,&nbsp;Dragan Brnić","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>Rotavirus A</em> (RVA) is a major cause of non-bacterial gastroenteritis in mammals and birds, with sporadic zoonotic events. Despite well-documented interspecies transmission of porcine-originated RVA strains (poRVAs), the role of wildlife in transmission dynamics remains underexplored. Using a One Health spatiotemporal approach, this study investigated the genetic interconnectedness of poRVAs in domestic pigs and wildlife in Croatia (2018–2021). Fecal samples or rectal swabs from 445 domestic pigs, 441 wild boars, 533 red foxes, and 131 golden jackals underwent RNA extraction, RT-PCR, VP7/VP4 genotyping, and Sanger sequencing. From these, nineteen samples carrying poRVA genotypes in wildlife and matching genotypes in domestic pigs were selected for the NGS and complete RVA genome analysis. Results revealed porcine genogroup 1 constellation, with surface protein genotypes characteristic of porcine hosts in all detected RVA strains. Wildlife-derived poRVAs proved evolutionary related to domestic pig-derived strains, verifying previously hypothesized interspecies transmission. Among VP7 genotypes, G3 dominated in wildlife, G5 in domestic pigs, and G4 showed zoonotic potential. In VP4, P[13] was the most prevalent, while P[23] and P[6] exhibited recombination events. Mixed-genotype RVAs appeared only in domestic pigs encompassing VP7, VP4, and NSP4 gene segments. This study provides insights into RVA host diversity, presenting the first complete RVA genome data from golden jackals and the second from red foxes globally. In addition, it presents the first complete RVA genomes from wild boars outside of Asia to date. Wildlife-derived RVAs showed evolutionary links to domestic pig strains, including zoonotic strains, highlighting the role of wildlife in RVA dissemination. These findings emphasize the need for expanded animal RVA surveillance to better understand environmental transmission, zoonotic risks, and control strategies within a One Health framework.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"994 ","pages":"Article 180010"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Erythrocytic nuclear abnormalities and apoptotic gene dysregulation in zebrafish organs: Individual and combined genotoxic effects after lead and chromium exposure","authors":"Olivia Sarkar ,&nbsp;Sunanda Mukherjee ,&nbsp;Shehnaz Islam ,&nbsp;Ansuman Chattopadhyay","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180053","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180053","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lead (Pb) and chromium (Cr) are among the most extensively studied heavy metals due to their widespread presence and hazardous impacts on aquatic life. Pb and Cr exhibit strong genotoxic potential in aquatic environments by inducing DNA damage through overproduction of reactive oxygen species, resulting in oxidative stress, DNA strand breaks, and chromosomal aberrations. Disruption of nuclear integrity, impaired DNA repair pathways, and apoptosis activation further exacerbate their toxicity. However, most studies focus on their individual effects, often overlooking their combined genotoxic effects across multiple organs using a multi-endpoint approach under chronic, environmentally relevant exposure conditions. This study investigates the individual and combined genotoxic effects of Pb and Cr in adult male zebrafish (<em>Danio rerio</em>), a widely accepted ecotoxicological model, focusing on the blood, liver, gut, brain, and kidney as target tissues. Zebrafish were exposed to environmentally relevant concentrations of Pb (2.5, 5, and 10 ppb), Cr (0.5, 1, and 2 ppm), and their mixtures for 15, 30, and 60 days. Genotoxicity was assessed through erythrocytic nuclear anomalies assay, DNA fragmentation via agarose gel electrophoresis, apoptotic gene expression (<em>p53</em>, <em>bax</em>, <em>bcl</em>-<em>2</em>, <em>caspase</em>-<em>9</em>, and <em>caspase</em>-<em>3</em>) using qRT-PCR, and metal bioaccumulation by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Results demonstrated a concentration- and time-dependent increase in nuclear anomalies, particularly micronuclei, blebbed, lobed, and notched nuclei, with the combined group showing the highest frequency. DNA fragmentation analysis confirmed significant genotoxicity, particularly in the liver and gut. Gene expression profiling revealed significant upregulation of pro-apoptotic genes (<em>p53</em>, <em>bax</em>, <em>caspase</em>-<em>9</em>, and <em>caspase</em>-<em>3</em>) and downregulation of <em>bcl</em>-<em>2</em>, indicating apoptosis induction. These findings underlined the synergistic and apoptotic effects of Pb and Cr, highlighting the importance of assessing chemical mixtures in aquatic toxicology. The study also offers mechanistic insights into tissue-specific toxicity, emphasizing the efficacy of zebrafish as a robust model for environmental risk assessment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"994 ","pages":"Article 180053"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144595887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of groundwater connectivity in sustaining European lake water systems","authors":"Ma. Cristina Paule-Mercado ,&nbsp;Rubén Rabaneda-Bueno ,&nbsp;Petr Porcal ,&nbsp;Marek Kopacek ,&nbsp;Ioannis Matiatos ,&nbsp;Frederic Huneau ,&nbsp;Yuliya Vystavna","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180038","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180038","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the potential connectivity of groundwater with lakes (groundwater-lake connectivity), using the groundwater table depth to maximum lake depth ratio (GW/L) as an indicator. Results from 189 European lakes show that those that are disconnected or have low connectivity (GW/L &gt; 0.5), typically at higher altitudes (&gt;1000 m a.s.l.) in catchments with less-permeable geological formations (e.g., crystalline rocks), exhibit a higher sensitivity to evaporation (evaporation to inflow rate, E/I &gt; 0.40) compared to lakes more highly connected to groundwater (GW/L &lt; 0.1, E/I &lt; 0.20). Lakes with higher groundwater-lake connectivity are also more resilient to climatic changes, with groundwater contributions correlating positively with catchment characteristics (e.g., land use and precipitation). While most lakes are primarily recharged by warm precipitation (&gt;80 % of the rainfall contribution in lake waters), particularly in disconnected lakes, cold precipitation (snow and rain from November to April) contributes &lt;20 % to the total recharge in the warmer months (May–October). Nevertheless, cold precipitation plays a crucial role in maintaining groundwater-lake connectivity by recharging groundwater and stabilizing lake water levels. Nitrate contamination is strongly associated with urban and agricultural land use, with concentrations increasing with groundwater input. Lakes with higher groundwater-lake connectivity tend to exhibit elevated nitrate levels, contributing to eutrophication. Overall, the GW/L indicator shows strong potential for future studies and application in hydrological assessments. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating groundwater–lake connectivity into climate change vulnerability assessments, especially in relation to water balance, nutrient cycling, and ecosystem health.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"994 ","pages":"Article 180038"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144595885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pharmaceuticals and personal care products in sediments in Africa: Status, ecological risks, extraction and analytical techniques","authors":"Merolyne Natuhwera ,&nbsp;Zaccheus Shehu ,&nbsp;Ivan Špánik ,&nbsp;George William Atwoki Nyakairu ,&nbsp;Edward Mubiru ,&nbsp;Florence Nantaba ,&nbsp;Douglas Sifuna ,&nbsp;Patrick Ssebugere","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This review synthesized literature (2012–2024) about the occurrence of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in sediments from waterbodies in Africa while highlighting the sources and analytical techniques used. A total of 35 PPCP classes constituting 142 compounds were identified. Eastern Africa reported 21 classes with 60 compounds, Western Africa 17 classes with 69 compounds, Southern Africa 18 classes with 19 compounds, and Northern Africa 1 class with 19 compounds. Publications were scarce in Central and Northern Africa, with most studies reported in Western Africa. Ultrasonic extraction coupled with Solid Phase Extraction (SPE) was the most frequently used sample preparation technique due to its efficiency, cost-effectiveness, simplicity, high recovery rates and ability to extract a wide range of PPCPs. The most frequently used analytical technique was LC-MS/MS due to its superior sensitivity, selectivity, and ability to detect PPCPs at trace levels. The concentration of PPCPs in sediments from waterbodies in Africa ranged from &lt;LOD to 28,580 μg/kg dry weight (d.w). Diclofenac was the most predominant PPCP in Africa. In general, the risk quotient (RQ) values were ≥1 suggesting potential ecological risks to benthic and sediment dwelling organisms. Inconsistent reporting formats and limited temporal monitoring data in Central and Northern Africa hindered inter-continental and inter-regional comparisons. African governments should prioritize research and allocate research funds, invest in analytical infrastructure, strengthen policy and regulatory frameworks, and promote public awareness in the proper disposal and management of waste to mitigate the ecological risks associated with PPCP contamination.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"994 ","pages":"Article 180036"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “methane emissions from residential natural gas meter set assemblies” [Sci. Total environ. 931 (2024) 172857]","authors":"Coleman Vollrath,&nbsp;Chris H. Hugenholtz,&nbsp;Thomas E. Barchyn,&nbsp;Clay Wearmouth","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180005","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"993 ","pages":"Article 180005"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144615697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agroecological impacts of crop residue burning: A qualitative systematic review of direct and inferred evidence","authors":"Ashiq Parambil-Peedika ,&nbsp;Alison Laing ,&nbsp;Mahesh Kumar Gathala ,&nbsp;Adeeth A.G. Cariappa ,&nbsp;Vijesh V. Krishna","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179963","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179963","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The widespread adoption of mechanized crop harvesting in cereal-based production systems and limited turnaround time between cropping seasons have made crop residue burning a prevalent time-saving practice. Despite its well-documented environmental and health consequences, how residue burning affects agrobiodiversity and ecosystem functions remains underexplored. This qualitative systematic review includes a total of 250 peer-reviewed studies, of which 41 examined the direct effects of residue burning, and 209 focused on broader air pollution impacts as inferential evidence, of which 134 publications focused on arthropods and 75 on birds. From the 233 recorded trait instances across the studied species, about 40 % showed a negative response to residue burning, indicating improved biodiversity responses to alternative residue management practices, such as retention, incorporation, and manual or mechanical removal. Residue burning negatively affected natural predators but favored parasitic nematodes and rodent pests. More studies are required to better characterize the functional responses of important species across various agroecosystems. The decline in soil biodiversity and beneficial species due to residue burning significantly diminishes the ecosystem services these biodiversity components provide, ultimately threatening long-term system productivity. Arthropods and birds, which play critical ecological roles in agroecosystems, may also be adversely affected by residue burning. However, very few air pollution studies have explicitly examined the impact of residue burning on higher taxa. Findings from broader air pollution studies, used here as secondary evidence, offer valuable inferential insights into the potential ecological impacts of crop residue burning on birds and arthropods, mediated through changes in air quality. Despite these documented consequences, agrobiodiversity considerations are largely absent from policy discussions on residue management. Our findings highlight the urgent need for a comprehensive assessment of the ecological impacts of crop residue burning on biodiversity and associated ecosystem services to inform biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation efforts to ensure sustainability of agricultural systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"994 ","pages":"Article 179963"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change and geographic barriers exacerbate the spread and threat of Psacothea hilaris (Pascoe, 1857) in China: Insights from ensemble model, geographic barrier simulations, and niche analysis","authors":"Liang Zhang,&nbsp;Chaokun Yang,&nbsp;Ping Wang,&nbsp;Guanglin Xie,&nbsp;Wenkai Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is a key driver affecting global ecosystems and biodiversity, particularly influencing the spread and distribution of forest pests in forest ecosystems. <em>Psacothea hilaris</em> (Pascoe, 1857), an important forestry pest, poses a serious threat to the mulberry industry and the health of forest ecosystems. This study integrated an ensemble model, geographic barrier analysis, and niche modelling to evaluate habitat suitability and future range shifts of <em>P. hilaris</em> under different climatic scenarios, and formulated corresponding prevention and control strategies. The results indicated that the ensemble model exhibited high accuracy (AUC = 0.97; TSS = 0.81). Mean diurnal range, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of warmest quarter were the key drivers affecting the distribution of <em>P. hilaris</em>, and the response curves further revealed the existence of a non-linear pattern of these factors on its survival probability. Currently, <em>P. hilaris</em> is mainly distributed in central and southern China, while in the future, the area of its suitable habitat is expected to increase by 13.61 % to 64.04 %, and the centre of its distribution will move to higher latitudes. Multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) confirmed that the bioclimatic conditions in the future expansion area are highly similar to the current conditions. Moreover, the ecological niche overlap of <em>P. hilaris</em> will exceed 0.81 in the future periods. Additionally, topographic barriers did not significantly limit the dispersal ability of <em>P. hilaris</em>. This study not only provides data support for the development of refined control measures and ecological risk assessment for <em>P. hilaris</em>, but also provides valuable reference for the optimization of forest pest control strategies and ecosystem protection in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"994 ","pages":"Article 180032"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}