Science of the Total Environment最新文献

{"title":"Amphibian susceptibility to parasitism in relation to environmental contaminant exposure: a meta-analysis","authors":"Jillian Rohonczy ,&nbsp;Mark R. Forbes ,&nbsp;Julia Darabaner ,&nbsp;Stacey A. Robinson","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179441","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179441","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amphibians are declining globally, which may have consequences for structure and function of ecosystems. In the natural environment, amphibians are often challenged with multiple threats simultaneously. Two challenges that amphibian species currently face include exposure to environmental contaminants (ECs), and exposure to parasites. The relationship between EC exposure and amphibian susceptibility to parasites has been investigated for multiple amphibian species, parasite types, and ECs. However, the overall effect of EC exposure on amphibian susceptibility to parasites remains unclear. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to summarize the overall effect of EC exposure on amphibian susceptibility to parasitism and to investigate whether moderating factors influenced the effect of EC exposure on amphibian susceptibility to parasitism. We did not detect an overall effect of EC exposure on amphibian susceptibility to parasitism. The effect of ECs on amphibian parasite levels differed depending on EC class, parasite type, the relative order the host was exposed to ECs and parasites, the host's developmental stage when exposed to parasites, and which organism was exposed to ECs. Amphibian parasite levels increased as the total experiment duration increased. The effect of ECs on parasite-associated amphibian mortality differed depending on EC class, with fungicides increasing parasite-associated amphibian mortality relative to the other EC classes tested. We identified two main considerations for future research: to broaden the array of ECs and parasites tested, and to investigate the ontogeny of EC exposure on amphibian susceptibility to parasites. We also implore researchers to publish their raw data to facilitate data collection and analysis for future meta-analyses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"978 ","pages":"Article 179441"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143847428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Legacy of severe soil degradation hinders the buildup of mineral-associated soil organic carbon","authors":"Otávio dos Anjos Leal,&nbsp;Rüdiger Reichel,&nbsp;Holger Wissel,&nbsp;Nicolas Brüggemann","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179445","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179445","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global efforts target a soil organic carbon (SOC) enhancement rate of 2.4 ‰ y⁻¹ in the upper 30 cm of agricultural soils to address declining soil productivity associated with declining SOC stocks. We explored a unique chronosequence of homogeneous soils formed after mining in Germany, which serve conventional agriculture and exhibit a large margin for SOC storage, but limited SOC accrual, to study SOC protection mechanisms and accrual constraints. We hypothesized that limited SOC accrual is associated to insufficient nitrogen rather than to minerals saturation. Soil samples (0–30 and 30–60 cm) were collected across the chronosequence (0–56 years) and compared to an original non-mined soil (OS) managed similarly. The mean residence time (MRT) of SOC and its protection mechanisms were studied using soil incubation, organic matter density fractionation, and δ¹³C measurements. After 56 years, total and mineral-associated SOC (MAOC) stocks remained 18 % and 28 % lower than in the OS at 0–30 cm, with estimated replenishment times of 93 and 129 years, respectively. Mineral-associated nitrogen (MAN) stocks stagnated along recultivation time below OS level. Together with significant linear correlation of MAOC with total SOC and MAN stocks, these results indicate that nitrogen rather than saturation of minerals limits SOC accrual. In fact, the MAOC stock deficit to saturation was estimated at 316.4 Mg ha⁻¹. At 30–60 cm, SOC and nitrogen stocks were restored within 30 years, due to comparatively lower initial losses. The initial MRT of SOC at 0–30 and 30–60 cm (15.3 and 27.9 years) declined before finally becoming comparable to OS (11.7 and 7.7 years). This reflected new carbon entering the soil that initially contained predominantly MAOC (78–82 %), followed by its stabilization as MAOC. Due to their susceptibility to nitrogen losses, degraded soils require tailored nitrogen management to restore SOC stocks and comply with European laws requiring agricultural SOC accrual.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"978 ","pages":"Article 179445"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying airtightness-to-infiltration conversion: A long-term field study under variable temperature differences in university classrooms","authors":"Sowoo Park ,&nbsp;Seunghwan Park ,&nbsp;Doosam Song","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179456","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179456","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigated the relationship between natural infiltration rates and airtightness performance in buildings through long-term measurements. The study area is Korea, where the annual temperature difference is 30 °C. The appropriateness of the existing correlation factor, namely the divide-by-20 rule, was examined by comparing the infiltration rates measured using tracer gas methods under different indoor and outdoor temperatures and the airtightness performance measured using blower door tests. Additionally, a variable correlation factor based on climatic conditions was derived and evaluated. The findings revealed very low to moderate airtightness values of 0.2–1.0 h⁻¹ for the test rooms. The infiltration rates varied according to the indoor and outdoor temperature differences, showing a direct correlation between temperature difference and outdoor wind speed. The derived correlation factors ranged from approximately 40–122, exceeding the existing “rule of thumb” value of 20, suggesting that the divide-by-20 rule may overestimate actual infiltration rates. Therefore, using a single correlation factor derived from limited experiments or controlled environmental conditions may lead to substantial errors in estimating the infiltration rate. Based on the climatic conditions in Korea, we recommend applying new correlation factors segmented into indoor and outdoor temperature differences of 5 °C for the cooling and heating seasons. In this study, we emphasized the importance of seasonal variations in the correlation factors in regions with significant annual temperature differences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"978 ","pages":"Article 179456"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status in the Oslofjord, Norway","authors":"Paula Ramon ,&nbsp;Jesper H. Andersen ,&nbsp;Ciarán J. Murray ,&nbsp;Helene Frigstad","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179462","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179462","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The eutrophication status of the Oslofjord, Norway, was assessed using 1) existing monitoring data, 2) established assessment criteria, and 3) an updated version of the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT), which is widely employed in Europe. The analysis, covering the period from 1960 to 2023, revealed persistent ‘eutrophication problem areas’ in specific regions of the Oslofjord, particularly in inner areas and those situated downstream of large catchments and urban centres. This assessment demonstrated that the Oslofjord has been classified as a ‘eutrophication problem area’ for more than five decades. These findings, including basin- and criteria-specific distance-to-target estimates, provide a foundation for establishing evidence-based nutrient management strategies in the Oslofjord and its upstream catchments. In the absence of reduced nutrient inputs, a significant portion of the Oslofjord will continue to be classified as a ‘problem area’.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"978 ","pages":"Article 179462"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Urban imperviousness and carotid intima-medial thickness: Evidence from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study","authors":"Dandan Zhao ,&nbsp;Jie Yao ,&nbsp;Yuanfei Li ,&nbsp;David R. Jacobs Jr ,&nbsp;Tao Gao ,&nbsp;Linda H. Nie ,&nbsp;Colin O. Wu ,&nbsp;Umit Tokac ,&nbsp;Shuang Li ,&nbsp;Hui Zhao ,&nbsp;Donald Lloyd-Jones ,&nbsp;Lifang Hou ,&nbsp;Kai Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179376","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179376","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Urbanization has increased impervious cover – surfaces that cannot absorb or filter water – which may raise cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks through reduced walkability, increased heat, and pollution. However, the relationship between imperviousness and subclinical CVD indicators, specifically carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), remains unexplored, especially across diverse populations. This study aims to investigate whether impervious cover in residential communities is associated with CIMT, and whether these associations differ by race and sex.</div></div><div><h3>Method</h3><div>Linking urban impervious cover data from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD 2006) to individual carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) information from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, this research employed linear regression models and examined whether the prevalence of impervious surface in immediate neighborhood and surrounding areas is associated with CIMT among middle-aged adults and whether the association varies across sex and race groups.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Overall, there's no significant association between impervious coverage and CIMT, but differences exist among subpopulations. For women, the proportions of impervious surfaces within varying buffers (distance range 50 m to 5000 m) are positively associated with CIMT (β range 0.599 to 1.072 mm/m, with p range &lt; 0.001 to 0.044), which can fully be annulled by a set of social determinants of health. Black adults' CIMT is still positively associated with impervious coverage beyond a buffer of 1 km regardless of the adjustment (β range 0.999 to 1.119 mm/m, with p range 0.024 to 0.043), while no significant association exists for buffers of 750 m or less. By comparison, there are no significant associations for men or White adults.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>Our findings suggest that impervious cover in urban areas may contribute to early CVD development among Black adults. The absence of associations within smaller buffers and among other demographic groups highlights the complexity of environmental pathways and cardiovascular health.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"978 ","pages":"Article 179376"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Teflubenzuron effects on springtail life history traits explained from impairment of its lipid metabolism","authors":"Diana Ilyaskina ,&nbsp;Saúl Fernandes ,&nbsp;Matty P. Berg ,&nbsp;Marja H. Lamoree ,&nbsp;Cornelis A.M. van Gestel ,&nbsp;Pim E.G. Leonards","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179394","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179394","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigated how the insecticide teflubenzuron disrupts lipid metabolism in the springtail <em>Folsomia candida</em>, revealing significant alterations in lipid profiles. <em>F. candida</em> was exposed to sub-lethal concentrations of teflubenzuron (0, 0.006, 0.014, 0.035 mg a.s. kg⁻¹ soil dry weight). Untargeted lipidomics was used to study the dynamic changes in lipid profiles in the springtail over exposure intervals of 2, 7, and 14 days exposure intervals. Teflubenzuron induced shifts in lipid profiles, affecting lipid pathways crucial for energy storage, membrane integrity, and signaling, which are essential for survival, reproduction, and stress responses in this springtail. Diacylglycerols (DG) and Triacylglycerols (TG), which play crucial roles in energy storage and lipid-mediated signaling, were substantially affected by teflubenzuron. Decreased levels of DG and TG suggest a shift in priorities from reproduction to maintenance functions, implying disruptions in cholesterol homeostasis and vitellogenesis in response to teflubenzuron exposure. Furthermore, increased levels of fatty acids and N-acylethanolamines in response to teflubenzuron exposure indicated increased energy production and potential oxidative stress, highlighting the springtails' response to pesticide exposure. Certain lipid alterations (N-palmitoylethanolamine (NAE 16:0) and N-stearoylethanolamine (NAE 18:0)), known for their anti-inflammatory properties, point towards inflammation and mitochondrial membrane remodeling (alternations in cardiolipin lipids), indicating broader impacts on physiological functions. Ether glycerophospholipids, such as lysophosphatidylethanolamine and phosphatidylethanolamine, linked to peroxisomes and the endoplasmic reticulum, underscore their potential antioxidative role in response to oxidative stress. The study shows the significance of incorporating life cycle events into ecotoxicological assessments to comprehensively understand pesticide impacts on organisms. The integration of lipidomics into environmental risk assessments offers a more informed approach to pesticide regulation and environmental stewardship.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"978 ","pages":"Article 179394"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global relationship between upwelling intensities and mangrove distribution and area","authors":"Arimatéa C. Ximenes ,&nbsp;Leandro Ponsoni ,&nbsp;Eduardo E. Maeda ,&nbsp;Nico Koedam ,&nbsp;Farid Dahdouh-Guebas","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179356","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179356","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mangroves are essential coastal ecosystems distributed across tropical and subtropical regions, typically found at the confluence of river systems and the sea. Although air temperature has long been recognised as a key determinant of mangrove distribution, upwelling systems that transport cold, nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface can also impede mangrove propagule dispersion. However, global studies that examine the influence of upwelling on mangrove distribution remain scarce. In this study, our objective was to investigate the relationship between upwelling systems and global mangrove distribution, with an emphasis on range limits and area extent. We adopted a novel multi-scale approach by analysing mangrove areas at several minimum size thresholds (≥5 ha, ≥50 ha, ≥100 ha, ≥200 ha, and ≥ 300 ha) to evaluate the scale dependence of upwelling effects. Our regression models revealed a clear trend: the coefficient of determination (<em>R</em>²) increased from 0.20 for patches ≥5 ha to 0.37 for ≥50 ha, 0.43 for ≥100 ha, 0.49 for ≥200 ha, and reached 0.53 for patches ≥300 ha. Furthermore, low-upwelling regions harbour 47.7 % of the total mangrove area (66,763 km²), whereas high-upwelling regions account for only 0.5 % (2642 km²). We also found that the highest upwelling intensities occur exclusively in the Atlantic East Pacific mangrove region, a key environmental contrast to the Indo-West Pacific. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that upwelling systems are one factor shaping global mangrove distribution in a strongly scale-dependent manner, with larger, contiguous patches exhibiting a markedly stronger response. These insights emphasise the need to incorporate upwelling intensity and spatial scale into global mangrove conservation and management strategies. This integration is essential to address the complex interplay of environmental factors under shifting oceanographic and climatic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"978 ","pages":"Article 179356"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143837755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Groundwater drought and anthropogenic amplifiers: A review of assessment and response strategies in arid and semi-arid areas","authors":"Abedulla Elsaidy ,&nbsp;Estifanos Addisu Yimer ,&nbsp;Yunes Mogheir ,&nbsp;Marijke Huysmans ,&nbsp;Lorenzo Villani ,&nbsp;Ann van Griensven","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179406","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179406","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Groundwater drought, a prolonged period of abnormally low groundwater levels, poses a significant threat to the environment, society, and economy. Drought impacts are particularly severe in (semi) arid regions, home to over two billion people, where precipitation is scarce and unevenly distributed. Despite extensive research on droughts, groundwater drought assessment and related responses remains underexplored, especially in addressing groundwater quality. This review addresses this gap by systematically investigating groundwater drought in arid and semi-arid regions. The process involved formulating a search query, identifying relevant articles, and filtering them based on selection criteria. As a result, 146 relevant studies retrieved from the SCOPUS database were fully reviewed. The results were then analyzed using the Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) framework. This review explores natural and human drivers of groundwater drought and their interactions, focusing on environmental, societal, and economic impacts. Assessment studies often prioritize water quantity over quality and typically indicate a declining trend in groundwater levels, with a heavy reliance on field data rather than remote sensing. &lt;40 % use advanced techniques like physical models or artificial intelligence. Responses include management, policy, and community strategies, technological and nature-based solutions. The studies mainly focus on water management, policy, and community frameworks. Challenges faced include stakeholder engagement, public perception, reliable data scarcity, and high costs. Further research is needed to model the connections between drivers and impacts, understand groundwater dynamics, and develop adaptive strategies. This research promotes artificial intelligence and remote sensing for studying groundwater drought, while encouraging international research cooperation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"978 ","pages":"Article 179406"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143837929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Eco-friendly structures for sustainable mangrove restoration","authors":"Midhun Mohan ,&nbsp;Pandi P. Selvam ,&nbsp;Ewane Basil Ewane ,&nbsp;Lara G. Moussa ,&nbsp;Emma F. Asbridge ,&nbsp;Stacey M. Trevathan-Tackett ,&nbsp;Peter I. Macreadie ,&nbsp;Michael S. Watt ,&nbsp;Lucy Gwen Gillis ,&nbsp;Francoise Cabada-Blanco ,&nbsp;Ian Hendy ,&nbsp;Eben North Broadbent ,&nbsp;Sabrina K.B. Olsson ,&nbsp;Beatriz Marin-Diaz ,&nbsp;John A. Burt","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179393","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179393","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mangrove forests around the world are under significant pressure from climate change (e.g., rising sea levels), and human-related anthropogenic activities (e.g., coastal infrastructure development). Mangrove restoration projects have increased over the past decades but seedling and propagule survival rates are reportedly low, while many projects have failed. There exists a need to assess the effectiveness of sustainable and cost-effective eco-friendly structures (EFS) for advancing the success of mangrove restoration and planting activities. Herein, by EFS, we refer to the frameworks made of biodegradable materials that help overcome establishment bottlenecks and thereby boost seedling survival and growth rates. In this study, we explored the effectiveness of EFS in aiding mangrove restoration success by enhancing seedling establishment and survival and tree growth rates. Furthermore, we examine the steps involved and the challenges limiting EFS implementation in mangrove restoration projects. EFS installed in coastal areas trap sediment and may provide protection for newly planted mangrove seedlings and propagules by providing a stable anchorage and attenuating water flow and waves. Additionally, once plants are established, these biodegradable structures would decompose and add to the soil nutrients stock, thereby improving its fertility and supporting mangrove growth. We emphasize that in sites with favorable biophysical conditions for mangrove growth (hydrology, soil, topography, climate, among others), using EFS can improve mangrove restoration success by enhancing seedling establishment, survival and growth. Mangrove restoration success may have add-on benefits such as increasing the provision of related ecosystem services, blue carbon credit financing and overall coastal environmental sustainability. Given the novelness of this topic in the scientific literature, this article aims to stimulate active discussions, including anticipation of potential challenges (e.g., cost-effectiveness, ability to scale and field limitations in a range of biogeographic settings), for bringing in improvements and scalable adoption strategies to the mangrove restoration approaches under consideration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"978 ","pages":"Article 179393"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143837756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of water scarcity as a risk factor for cholera outbreaks","authors":"Bailey Magers ,&nbsp;Moiz Usmani ,&nbsp;Kyle D. Brumfield ,&nbsp;Anwar Huq ,&nbsp;Rita R. Colwell ,&nbsp;Antarpreet S. Jutla","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179412","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179412","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Increasing aridity and incidence of droughts pose a significant threat to human health, primarily in exacerbating water scarcity, and is projected to become more frequent and severe as a result of related environmental changes in many regions globally. Concomitantly, water scarcity will force populations to utilize potentially contaminated water sources, hence increasing exposure to waterborne diseases, notably cholera. Proliferation of <em>Vibrio cholerae</em>, causative agent of cholera, is driven by environmental factors. Notably, temperature and precipitation have been employed in providing predictive awareness of cholera, allowing early warning and mitigation. The impact of droughts on incidence and spread of cholera is less understood.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This study aimed to quantify relationships among temperature, precipitation, and droughts as a basis for establishing the connection of environmental parameters and outbreaks of cholera. Thirteen cholera outbreaks between 2003 and 2023 in four African countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal) were assessed using odds ratio and k-means clustering analysis.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Cholera outbreaks were 3.07 (95 % CI: [0.95, 9.88]) times more likely when drought conditions (negative precipitation anomalies, positive temperature anomalies, and negative Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index) were present, compared to their absence. When excess rainfall was also considered, the odds ratio increased to 3.50 (95 % CI: [1.03, 11.90]). Complementary evidence obtained using k-means clustering analysis supported the conclusion that outbreaks of cholera were common during drought conditions.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Considering the last few decades with increased severity and frequency of droughts in cholera-impacted regions, climate projections indicate the threat of cholera outbreaks will continue, especially noting increasing reports of cholera globally. Hence, predictive intelligence systems for rapid risk assessment, with respect to climate, drought, and human health, are warranted.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"978 ","pages":"Article 179412"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143837931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}