ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"The Size Distribution Across All \"Cities\": A Unifying Approach","authors":"Kristian Giesen, Jens Suedekum","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2004229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2004229","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we show that the double Pareto lognormal (DPLN)\u0000parameterization provides an excellent fit to the overall US city size distribution, regardless\u0000of whether �cities� are administratively defined Census places or economically defined\u0000area clusters. We then consider an economic model that combines scale-independent urban\u0000growth (Gibrat�s law) with endogenous city creation. City sizes converge to a DPLN\u0000distribution in this model, which is much better in line with the data than previous urban\u0000growth frameworks that predict a lognormal or a Pareto city size distribution (Zipf�s law).","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"120 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125076006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing Income Distribution at the District Level for India Using Nighttime Satellite Imagery","authors":"Mayuri Chaturvedi, T. Ghosh, Laveesh Bhandari","doi":"10.7125/APAN.32.23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7125/APAN.32.23","url":null,"abstract":"Several studies have been carried out relating nighttime lights with economic activity. But most studies relating nighttime lights with economic activity have focused on associating higher totals in economic activity with higher sum of lights across regions. The question addressed in this paper is how best to model the relationship of nighttime lights with not just the wealthy but also the relatively worse-off within a region. The implications of such an exercise are immense with respect to ascertaining income distribution aspects of any area. The methods developed in this paper explore the relation between households in different income brackets at the district level for India, and the radiance-calibrated nighttime image of 2004. Besides the radiance-calibrated data of 2004, estimates of household incomes and number of households in different income brackets, made by Indicus Analytics (specialized economic research firm, based in New Delhi, India) were used. The results were mapped and insights were drawn for all districts based on their socio-economic profile. These results illustrate the advantage of using this easily available data for determining income inequalities, especially in information-deficient countries such as India.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130472281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Zipf's Law for Cities in the Regions and the Country","authors":"Kristian Giesen, Jens Suedekum","doi":"10.1093/JEG/LBQ019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/JEG/LBQ019","url":null,"abstract":"The salient rank-size rule known as Zipf's law is not only satisfied for Germany's national urban hierarchy, but also for the city size distributions in single German regions. To analyze this phenomenon, we build on the insights by Gabaix (1999) that Zipf's law follows from a stochastic growth process. In particular, Gabaix shows that if the regions follow Gibrat's law, we should observe Zipf at both the regional and the national level. This theory has never been addressed empirically. Using non-parametric techniques we find that Gibrat's law holds in each German region, irrespective of how \"regions\" are defined. In other words, Gibrat's law and therefore Zipf's law tend to hold everywhere in space.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"165 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132264525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Economic Impact of Anticipated House Price Changes — Evidence from Home Sales","authors":"N. Miller, L. Peng, Michael Sklarz","doi":"10.1111/j.1540-6229.2010.00292.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2010.00292.x","url":null,"abstract":"If realized house prices have the wealth effect and the collateral effect on the economy, anticipated house price changes should have similar economic effects. This article empirically analyzes the effects of single‐family home sales, which are shown to be able to predict house prices in the literature, on economic production, using 372 metropolitan statistic areas in the United States from the first quarter of 1981 to the second quarter of 2008 in a panel vector error correction model. Changes in home sales are found to Granger because the growth rate of per‐capita gross metropolitan product and the dynamic effects are visualized with impulse response functions. Supporting evidence for the economic impact of home sales is also found in contemporaneous regressions.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125474575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimates of a Cultural Consumption Price Index by Australian Region","authors":"T. MacDonald, J. Potts","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2661224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2661224","url":null,"abstract":"There are cultural costs and benefits associated with where one chooses to live in Australia. City living, for example, offers proximity to a greater range of cultural opportunities but carries higher costs of living than in a smaller town. Better access and variety is traded off against higher prices. The Cultural Consumption Price Index (CCPI) is an attempt to quantify this trade-­‐off for a representative household by estimating the full cost of a weighted basket of standardized cultural goods and services. The objective of this paper is to do so by providing a measure of how real costs of cultural consumption vary by geographic location in Australia. We estimate the CCPI over 30 post-­‐code defined Australian locations, ranging from inner city metro regions to outback communities. The CCPI climbs, at first slowly but then quickly, as cultural consumption is undertaken further and further away from its lowest point in the metro urban conglomerates of Western and South Australia, rising along the east coast and spreading inland. The highest prices of cultural consumption are in the remote centre and north of Australia. We propose a method to construct a price index of cultural consumption in geographic space. The index – the CCPI – is calculated from a standardised cultural consumption basket purchased by a representative consumer over 30 locations in Australia, using 2010 price data. We use a full cost method (direct plus indirect cost) to estimate the index value of the cultural consumption basket. This method highlights the extent that price differences by Australian location are accounted for by larger indirect costs (particularly travel) in consumption. The CCPI thus offers an empirical estimate of variation in the real cost of cultural consumption throughout Australia, based on existing investments and technologies with uniform preference. This will be of potential interest to regional policy, public infrastructure investment, and cultural policy, as well as informing decisions about regional migration and entrepreneurial opportunity. We find that the smaller cities of Perth and Adelaide have the lowest index value, with the larger cities of Sydney and Melbourne next, and with regional centres having index values that range between 20 percent and 100 percent higher, and remote towns scoring index values considerably higher again. We then recalculate the index based on non-­‐linear per capita scaling. This shifts the index away from major cities and toward evidently productive smaller cultural centres including Byron Bay and Freemantle. Further refinements of the index are suggested and some policy implications are outlined.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126821523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Information Spillovers and House Prices","authors":"Aydoğan Alti, Joseph Engelberg, Christopher Parsons","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1786824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1786824","url":null,"abstract":"We present direct evidence of information spillovers through transactions prices in real estate markets. This behavior is not explained by common shocks to housing values. The effect is strongest in homogenous markets, where the information content of price is higher. The effect is weakest among sellers expecting a nominal loss from selling, suggesting that behavioral factors may limit price-mediated information flow. Information spillovers improve liquidity, reducing time on market as much as 20%.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123265774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"House Price Indexes and Cyclical Behavior","authors":"Marcelo Bianconi, J. A. Yoshino","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1768028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1768028","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to use data on new apartment offerings in the municipality of Sao Paulo, Brazil to illustrate its main claim that the hedonic direct method using time dummies as well as the simple average method include cyclical behavior of observables and non-observables in a house price index that may overestimate or underestimate the actual change in house prices, well beyond the composition effects. Design/methodology/approach - The paper proposes the use of alternative characteristics hedonic functions to compute alternative Laspeyres house price indexes that differentiate the sources of observable shocks in the index. The decomposition allows for the inclusion of level and cyclical behavior of sets of aggregate variables into the index. Findings - The appropriate house price index should filter out real shocks that potentially affect the real estate sector. An index should capture nominal variation and incorporating real variation biases the measurement. Thus, the index is intended and able to buffer the bias spillover into the rest of economy. In the limited sample from the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, the main finding is that real shocks and US foreign shocks give an upward bias in the house price index, while nominal shocks give mostly a downward bias. Real shocks make the index incorporate gains that should not be incorporated into the index, thus providing a noisy picture of the nominal variation in house prices. Originality/value - The key contribution of this paper is to provide a framework for the construction of a house price index that filters out real shocks that potentially affect the real estate sector. An index should capture nominal variation and incorporating real variation biases the measurement. Those biases can spillover to the rest of the economy is a detrimental way. Thus, the index is intended and able to buffer the bias spillover into the rest of economy.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115048085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Foreclosures, House Prices, and the Real Economy","authors":"Atif R. Mian, Amir Sufi, Francesco Trebbi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1722195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1722195","url":null,"abstract":"States without a judicial requirement for foreclosures are twice as likely to foreclose on delinquent homeowners. Comparing zip codes close to state borders with differing foreclosure laws, we show that foreclosure propensity and housing inventory jump discretely as one enters non-judicial states. There is no jump in other homeowner attributes such as credit scores, income, or education levels. The increase in foreclosure rates in non-judicial states persists for at least five years. Using the judicial / non-judicial law as an instrument for foreclosures, we show that foreclosures lead to a large decline in house prices, residential investment, and consumer demand.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"226 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134110953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Liquidity Shocks, Local Banks, and Economic Activity: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Crisis","authors":"M. Goetz, Juan Carlos Gozzi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1709677","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1709677","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the relationship between shocks to local banks and economic activity, by exploiting differences in the liability structure of small U.S. commercial banks during the 2007-09 crisis. Banks that relied more heavily on wholesale liabilities reduced lending relatively more during the crisis than banks funding themselves with retail deposits, suggesting that the use of short-term wholesale funding exposed banks to a sudden dry-up in market liquidity. Moreover, metropolitan areas where banks relied more on wholesale liabilities experienced larger reductions in employment and establishments during the crisis, suggesting that adverse shocks to banks hurt the economy. This effect was stronger in areas with more bank-dependent firms, such as small businesses and firms with higher external financing needs.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"19 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125793227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Role of Real Estate Market on Asset Pricing Models: Empirical Evidence from Hong Kong","authors":"P. M. Chui","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1653294","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1653294","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the importance of real estate market for asset pricing models using Hong Kong data. The time-series regression approach is employed to examine the effect of a real estate factor on the Fama and French (1993) three factor model and on the Cahart (1997) four factor model. A residential price index and a total returns index based on average residential prices and average residential rents are used as proxies for real estate market. The empirical evidence demonstrates that significant positive real estate coefficients do exist in all pricing models under this study. In addition, the weighting scheme of portfolio construction (value-weighted portfolio vs. equally-weighted portfolio) has an impact on the regression results, in particular the real estate factor, for the monthly data as well as for the quarterly data.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116602255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}