{"title":"Fossil Fuel Extraction and Investment in Backstop Technology: A Strategic Interaction","authors":"حمیده اصفهانی, شیوا شاهمیری","doi":"10.29252/JPBUD.25.1.53","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29252/JPBUD.25.1.53","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"2007 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127308360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Investigating the Labor and Capital Contributions and their Effective Factors in Iran","authors":"Y. Dadgar, Simin Taheri, Hassan Taee","doi":"10.29252/jpbud.25.1.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29252/jpbud.25.1.3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115443050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. F. F. Ardestani, S. M. Barakchian, Hamideh Shokoohian
{"title":"Short-term Forecast of Hourly Electricity Demand in Iran Using a Forecast Combination Method","authors":"S. F. F. Ardestani, S. M. Barakchian, Hamideh Shokoohian","doi":"10.29252/JPBUD.24.4.57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29252/JPBUD.24.4.57","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this study is to present two time-series forecasting models and combine these models to provide a short-term prediction for hourly electricity demand, using daily electricity consumption data for the period 2006-2011. The first model is based on the decomposition of the electricity load into deterministic and stochastic components and the second model is based on the assumption that the electricity load is a stochastic time series. Once the hourly demand for electricity load is predicted using the above-mentioned models, the performance of the combined model is compared with the two time-series models and also with the dispatching unit model (a multi-variable model in which the weather variable is also included). The results show that the use of the combined model leads to an increase in prediction accuracy over the two time-series models. Moreover, the accuracy of the combined model is as good as the dispatching unit model for most of the time during the day, and even better during the consumption peak hours.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134280912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Impact of Financial and Trade Openness on Financial Development in Oil and Non-Oil Developing Countries using the Panel ARDL Approach (With Emphasis on Institutional Components)","authors":"B. Sahabi, M. Zolfaghari, Somayyeh Alavi","doi":"10.29252/JPBUD.24.4.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29252/JPBUD.24.4.3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126667256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimation of Income Elasticity and Tax Capacity with Concentration on the Components of Tax Revenues in Khuzestan Province","authors":"امید حاجتی, حسن فرازمند, مرتضی آفقه, عزیز آرمن","doi":"10.29252/JPBUD.24.4.97","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29252/JPBUD.24.4.97","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this article is to estimate the income elasticity and tax capacity of Khuzestan province for policy-making and regional planning based on tax pay ability. To this end, the direct and indirect tax revenues of the province were estimated using the Seemingly Unrelated Equations approach, for the period 20002014. The results show that the direct and indirect tax revenue elasticity of Khuzestan province is 1.09 and 2.77 respectively, and the elasticity of total tax revenue is 1.34. In addition, as for the direct tax, the tax elasticity of wealth and real estate is greater than the tax elasticity of businesses and corporations. The findings also indicate that the tax capacity of the province's businesses has a positive and significant relationship with the value-added of the restaurant and hotel sector as well as per capita income. Furthermore, the relationship between corporate tax capacity and value-added services is positive and significant. Likewise, the relationship between the tax capacity of other direct taxes (wealth and real estate) with real value-added and economic growth is positive and significant, and the relationship between the tax capacity of indirect taxes with private consumption expenditures and value-added of the mining sector is positive and significant.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"2016 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133357442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ابوالفضل شاه آبادی, مینا خشت مال نسرانی, علی مرادی
{"title":"The Effect of Knowledge Components on the Inequality of Global Wealth Distribution","authors":"ابوالفضل شاه آبادی, مینا خشت مال نسرانی, علی مرادی","doi":"10.29252/JPBUD.24.4.75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29252/JPBUD.24.4.75","url":null,"abstract":"Inequality in global wealth distribution has led to a growing gap between developing and developed countries with regards to income levels, consumption rates, and living standards. In view of that, the difference between these two groups of countries in terms of levels of knowledge and technology infrastructure, human capital, and innovation-based production has been cited as the main reason for inequality in the distribution of global wealth. The present study examines the effect of knowledge components on the inequality of global wealth distribution in the selected leading countries in science, implementing the approach of panel data and the use of generalized moment method for the period 2010-2017. The estimated results demonstrate that the effect of components of economic incentives, institutional regimes, and information and communication technology infrastructure on the inequality of global wealth distribution for the selected countries is negative and significant. Nonetheless, the effect of components of the innovation system, education, and development of human resources on the inequality of global wealth distribution is positive and significant. In addition, the effect of control variables, such as main globalization index and economic globalization, on the inequality of global wealth distribution for the selected countries is positive and significant; Also, the effect of social globalization and political globalization on the inequality of global wealth distribution is not significant.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116075848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Nonlinear Impacts of Public Debt on Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Approach","authors":"Roohollah Zare","doi":"10.29252/jpbud.24.4.43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29252/jpbud.24.4.43","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124223274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modeling Escorting School Trips by Employed Parents Based on Latent Variables","authors":"S. Mohajerani, A. Mamdoohi","doi":"10.29252/jpbud.24.4.125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29252/jpbud.24.4.125","url":null,"abstract":"Trips are an inseparable aspect of our lives, and nowadays their purposes have been changed and their number has increased. Most of the trips are done by cars, which make lots of harmful influences on our environment (such as pollution, global warming, and lack of energy sources), and they also bring about negative impacts on the economy and society. In order to have sustainable development, transportation managers should make long-term investments and policies on public transportation and active travel modes. In view of that, in addition to socio-economic variables and attributes of trips, we investigate the effect of latent psychological variables such as attitude, perceived behavioral control, subjective norms, and intention on escorting elementary school trips by employed parents. For this purpose, we analyzed and modeled the data of 4000 questionnaires filled by the parents of students of Tehran’s schools. Results obtained from estimating and calibrating the ordered and multinomial Logit models, show that the variables of perceived distance to school, children age, frequency of using the car to school, similarity between start time, and route travel in work and educational trips, intention, perceived behavioral control, existence of a proper person in the family for escorting children, suitable evaluation of one other person in family by parent and choosing public mode in case of similarity between start time, and route travel in work and educational trips in both models were statistically significant. Therefore, we can increase motivation by carrying out programs such as: explaining the importance of environmental and traffic issues, encouraging students and parents to do Supervisional Walking Bus (SWB), building residential settlements near parents’ office and students school, creating safe routes for walking and cycling and increasing the safety of neighborhoods; these programs can increase the probability of using active modes by students.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122529650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Empirical Test of the Impact of Insurance on Income Inequality in Iran","authors":"A. M. Tehranchian, S. Zaroki, N. Imani","doi":"10.29252/jpbud.24.3.35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29252/jpbud.24.3.35","url":null,"abstract":"Emphasis on eliminating deprivation and poverty on the one hand and expanding insurance services on the other, confirms the fact that the concept of insurance has a key role for economic planners and policymakers in achieving the goal of reducing income inequality. The efforts made in the present study are aimed at improving the position of insurance in this field. In this regard, the impact of the insurance penetration coefficient on income inequality in 30 provinces of Iran during 2011-2015 has been calculated using the dynamic panel data in a basic model and two scenarios (based on human development index and insurance penetration coefficient). The results show that inflation has a positive effect on the Gini coefficient and consequently increases income inequality. However, per capita income index and insurance penetration coefficient have a negative effect on the Gini coefficient and lead to a decrease in income inequality. Furthermore, the effect of this factor on the Gini coefficient in provinces varies depending on the level of human development and insurance penetration coefficient level. So first, there is a significant difference in the extent of the influence of insurance penetration coefficient on the Gini coefficient in two groups of provinces in terms of human development level, so that an increase in the level of human development reinforces the effect of the insurance penetration coefficient on reducing income inequality. Second, there is a significant difference in the magnitude of the impact of insurance penetration coefficient on the Gini coefficient in the two groups of provinces in terms of insurance penetration coefficient level; Thus, by increasing the size of the insurance penetration coefficient, the influence of the insurance penetration coefficient on reducing income inequality is strengthened.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125937098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Short-Term/Long-Term Analysis of the Differences in Total Factor Productivity in East and West Asia: A Study of the Main and \u0000Interaction Effects","authors":"S. Jafari, M. Esfandiari, M. Pahlavani","doi":"10.29252/jpbud.24.3.133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29252/jpbud.24.3.133","url":null,"abstract":"The present study examines the main and interaction effects of the variables that affect the total factor productivity (TFP) in East and West Asian countries. To this end, this paper provides a short-term and long-term analysis of the factors affecting productivity differences in these countries during the period 1998-2018. According to the results, the main factors that influence the increase in productivity in both the short-term and long-term in East Asia are the share of fossil fuels use, good governance, oil rents, and human capital, respectively; while the most important factors in increasing productivity in West Asia are good governance and trade openness, respectively. Correspondingly, the share of fossil fuels use, human capital, oil rents, foreign direct investment, trade openness, and financial development have been the most important factors in the difference in productivity in East and West Asian countries in both short-term and the long-term. Moreover, good governance has increased the productivity of all factors in West Asian countries (in the short-term), and in East Asian countries (in the long-term). Furthermore, in West Asian countries, in both short-term and long-term, the interaction effect of good governance and oil rents has increased the TFP; also, the interaction effect of human capital and oil rents has reduced the TFP, while the interaction of human capital and foreign direct investment had no effect on the TFP.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123675411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}