{"title":"Pandemic in Labor Market: Evidence from Iran","authors":"Monire Pourmohammadi, Kowsar Yousefi","doi":"10.52547/JPBUD.25.4.69","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52547/JPBUD.25.4.69","url":null,"abstract":"During the last decade, Iran's labor market has been under pressure by the sanctions and the long-term Dutch disease which injects physical capital and energy subsidy into the market and crowds the labor force out of the production lines. This situation has engendered vulnerable groups of the labor force. Furthermore, the Covid-19 epidemic pushed an exogenous shock into the economy and created a natural experiment to identify the most vulnerable groups. This study investigates the heterogeneous effects of the epidemic on Iran's labor market. We assess four main measures, including participation rate, unemployment spells, working hours, and job destruction rate. First, the results show that the participation rate has decreased substantially for women and youth. Also, those who were unemployed before the pandemic are more likely to become inactive during the pandemic. Second, unemployment spells last more after the pandemic. Third, working hours have been reduced on average, it has been reduced for those who had incomplete employment before the pandemic, but unexpectedly has increased for those who had worked completely (40 hours/week) before the pandemic. Fourth, the job destruction rate is higher among low-medium size firms, as compared to micro-firms or large ones. The robustness of these results has been tested using a multivariate model of event studies at individual level. Overall, the employment and income distributions have become worse for the vulnerable groups including part-time workers, young workers, and women. policymakers should consider such nonlinearities and design a targeted support plan. Future research may carry out survival analyses or structural estimations to predict the transition period towards a new postCovid19 equilibrium.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"23 9","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120942575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Assessment of the Level, Trend, and Distribution of Multidimensional Poverty in Iran","authors":"Y. Dadgar, M. Noferesti, Mohammad Mokhtari","doi":"10.52547/JPBUD.25.2.25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52547/JPBUD.25.2.25","url":null,"abstract":"An accurate, and time-based poverty measurement is crucial in future policymaking as well as assessing the impact of welfare policies implemented on poverty. This study has used Multidimensional Poverty Index to calculate the various dimensions of poverty as well as the trend of changes in this index for the whole country and to compare its trend from 2006 to 2018 in all provinces of Iran in both urban and rural areas. These insights provide more accurate images of the location and dimensions of poverty, and they help to illuminate the path for future research on the causes of poverty, and also to design and target the supportive policies more effectively. The results of this paper show that multidimensional poverty in rural and suburban areas is higher than the urban areas, yet it shows slightly decreasing poverty trend. The policy message of this study necessitates a major focus on poverty alleviation in rural and suburban areas.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131176693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Performance Management of Public Transportation by the Network Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Model","authors":"بابک فرهنگ مقدم, زهرا ساعدی","doi":"10.52547/JPBUD.25.2.45","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52547/JPBUD.25.2.45","url":null,"abstract":"Public transportation and bus route management is a sersious challenge for any city, and its efficiency is an important problem for cities and transport agencies. Routing of public transport systems is also a very complex issue that affects not only the performance efficiency and the construction or operation costs, but also the performance indicators such as passenger transport, travel speed, and savings in travel time. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is an optimization-based method that is widely used to measure the relative performance efficiency of public transportation systems. This paper attempts to evaluate the performance of bus routes in a public transportation system using the two-stage DEA model. A conceptual framework for performance appraisal is presented and appropriate input and output indicators are selected to calculate the performance efficiency and service efficiency of each route. The performance of the achievement (model) is then analyzed and the bus routes that need to be reconfigured and optimized are identified. Ten bus routes in Tehran have been selected for practical applications.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127240675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimation and Analysis of Labor Demand Function in Terms of Education and Employment Forecasting Up to the Year 1400","authors":"A. Amini, Behnam Nikbin","doi":"10.52547/JPBUD.25.2.59","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52547/JPBUD.25.2.59","url":null,"abstract":"The highly-educated labor force unemployment rate rapidly overtook the unemployment rate of the less-educated workers for the last two decades. This paper focuses on the factors which affect labor demand considering the level of education using the data from 1986 to 2017. Results based on the Multiple-Equation Generalized Method of Moments estimator demonstrate that non-oil GDP, relative wages, capital-labor ratio, and labor costs–capital costs ratio have a significant impact on labor demand in terms of education level. Also, it is demonstrated that the highlyeducated labor force can adjust to its desired level at a slower pace than the less educated workforce. Furthermore, it is denoted that non-oil GDP affects labor demand in a positive and significant way with more impact on the workers with higher education. Other findings indicate that in Iran’s labor market, highly-educated labor force and workers without college/ university degree are substitutes, hence policies like wage subsidies and employer insurance exemption for employing higher education graduates can stimulate labor demand for a highly-educated workforce in a positive and significant manner. On the other hand, as it is found that labor and capital are substitutes, policies that make labor costlier than capital may result in employment reduction. Finally, the technological progress that arises from increases in capital per capita has a positive and significant effect on the labor force with higher education, but it influences less-educated labor employment negatively and significantly.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133245862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Iman Shaker Ardakani, M. S. Ardakani, Abolfazl Shahmohammadi Mehrjardi
{"title":"A Model of Regional Allocation of Funds for the Ownership of Capital Assets of the Health Sector","authors":"Iman Shaker Ardakani, M. S. Ardakani, Abolfazl Shahmohammadi Mehrjardi","doi":"10.52547/JPBUD.25.2.91","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52547/JPBUD.25.2.91","url":null,"abstract":"The health sector and the funds allocated to it, due to its impact on the strengthening of the human capital through productivity, play an important role in the economic growth and human development of countries. If these credits are not allocated optimally, especially in the form of capital asset acquisition, it will make the health sector unable to provide optimal health care services. In this regard, the purpose of the present article is to provide a model for allocating the funds for the acquisition of capital assets of the health sector in Khorasan Razavi to the cities of this province. To this end, a multi-criteria decision-making method has been used on the basis of satisfaction and statistics and information related to credits and indicators of the health sector of Khorasan Razavi province with emphasis on deprived and less developed areas. The findings of this study indicate the highest optimal share for the cities of Mashhad, Binalood, and Zaveh and the lowest optimal share for the city of Gonabad from the total credits related to the acquisition of capital assets of the health sector of Khorasan Razavi.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124212733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of Electoral Cycle Occurrence on Macroeconomic Environment: Case Study of Iran","authors":"H. Amiri, Farzaneh Samadian","doi":"10.52547/JPBUD.25.2.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52547/JPBUD.25.2.3","url":null,"abstract":"The Political business cycle theory is one of the controversial topics in modern economic theory. The political business cycle, as a political factor, influences the trends of economic variables. According to economic theories, the economic policy adopted by government before election, is an expansionary one, leading to lower taxes and unemployment; it also increases consumption per capita, GDP, and the subsidies granted by the government. However, after each election, the government adopts a restrictive policy. This paper introduces the major models used to describe and analyze political and economic cycles. Moreover, Iran's political cycles and their impact on economic development are analyzed based on the BVAR model for the period 1979-2015. According to the analysis, it is concluded that the economic variables, particularly inflation and exchange rate, are under the influence of political decisions, specifically during the election period.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130720332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
K. Asayesh, Mirfeiz Fallahshams, Hossein Jahangirnia, Reza Gholami Jamkarani
{"title":"Explaining the Systemic Risk Model Using the Marginal Expected Shortfall Approach (MES) for the Banks Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange","authors":"K. Asayesh, Mirfeiz Fallahshams, Hossein Jahangirnia, Reza Gholami Jamkarani","doi":"10.52547/jpbud.25.2.115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52547/jpbud.25.2.115","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to explain the Systemic Risk Model with Marginal Expected Shortfall Approach (MES) as regards the banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The research population includes 15 banks that were present in Tehran Stock Exchange or Iran’s Over-The-Counter (OTC) for the period 2013 to 2018. Data analysis showed that according to the MES criterion, systemic risk has been declining in the period under review. However, the developments of this index can be divided into two sub-periods 2013-2015 and 2016-2018. In the first period (2013-2015), the level of systemic risk based on this criterion was significantly higher than the level of systemic risk in the second period (2016-2018); Nonetheless, over the time, in the second sub-period, on average, the values amounted to about half of what they were in the first-period level.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"108 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123251218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Relationship Between Fuzzy Coefficient of Innovation, Market Power, and Stock Return - Evidence of Competition-Aversion","authors":"Samaneh Noraniazad, Erfaneh Rasekh Jahromi","doi":"10.29252/JPBUD.25.1.109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29252/JPBUD.25.1.109","url":null,"abstract":"The main purpose of this article is to test the relationship between market power, innovation, and stock return in Tehran security market. To meet this end, the data of 153 institutions in Tehran security market over the period of 1997-2018 were used through a panel smooth transition approach. The results indicate the existence of a nonlinear relationship among variables in innovation and stock returns equations. Also, in the innovation coefficient equation, with an increase in market power as a transition variable to the threshold level, the innovation coefficient was increasing and significant, and passing through this level it was decreasing and significant. In addition, in the stock return equation, this trend maintains increasing innovation before and after the threshold level. In general, the results of innovation intensity and stock returns equations show that in the firms active in Tehran Stock Exchange, there was an asymmetrical and U-inverse relationship between the market power, innovation, and stock return. Moreover, evidence of competitionaversion effects was confirmed in most stock exchange firms.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"1 8","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113955604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Effects of Legal System and Deregulation on FDI","authors":"A. Mazyaki, E. Moradi","doi":"10.29252/JPBUD.25.1.71","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29252/JPBUD.25.1.71","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the effects of legal structure and deregulation on foreign direct investment (FDI). To do so, two categories of legal and economic variables have been examined. The data for the legal variables are extracted from the reports of Economic Freedom of the World, while the economic variables are collected from the database of the World Bank; also the panel covers the period 20002014 for 89 countries. Economic variables in our empirical model include “net foreign direct investment per capita”, “GDP per capita”, “economic openness”, “trade balance per capita”, “growth rate of real GDP”, and “real exchange rate”; and the legal variables consist of \"legal structure and respect to property rights\", \"domestic deregulation\", and \"freedom to trade internationally\". Our results indicate a direct, increasing, and augmentative effect from \"independent legal structure and respect for property rights\" on the ratio of foreign direct investment to gross domestic product.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115189259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Investigating the Threshold Effect of Public Debt on Economic Growth Using Threshold Regression Model: Evidence from Selected Countries","authors":"Aziz Arman, Ahmad Salahmanesh, Farzaneh Shalyari","doi":"10.29252/JPBUD.25.1.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29252/JPBUD.25.1.29","url":null,"abstract":"Achieving optimal economic growth is always one of the most important goals of any country, and due to the role of public debt in financing capital and economic growth, different views have been formed in this regard. One of the most recent views pertains to the non-linear relationship between public debt and economic growth. In this view, in the first regime, public debt has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while in the second regime and after crossing the threshold level, it has a negative effect on economic growth. Accordingly, this study attempts to investigate the nonlinear effect of public debt on the economic growth rate for a selected group of countries; it also attempts to determine their respective threshold level. For this purpose, using the data for the period 1980-2017 and the Pool model, the existence of nonlinear effect of public debt on economic growth was investigated; In addition, using the threshold regression model (PTR), the debt threshold level of each country was determined. Findings confirmed an asymmetric U-reverse effect of public debt on economic growth. Correspondingly, it was found that the threshold level in the selected countries is lower on average compared with developed countries.","PeriodicalId":402093,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Planning and Budgeting","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132838646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}