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Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Economic Security: Asia and the World 人口变化、经济增长和老年经济安全：亚洲与世界
IF 1.5
Asian Development Review Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110522500019
A. Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, Donghyun Park
{"title":"Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Economic Security: Asia and the World","authors":"A. Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, Donghyun Park","doi":"10.1142/s0116110522500019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0116110522500019","url":null,"abstract":"Asia is aging, although there is significant heterogeneity across subregions and economies. Population aging poses two strategic challenges for the region: sustaining economic growth and delivering old-age economic security. In this paper, we leverage the lifecycle perspective—that individuals’ consumption and labor income differ at each age—and the National Transfer Accounts database to construct and analyze key economic indicators. Our analysis confirms that demographic change will challenge the region’s future growth and increase the cost of funding the consumption of the elderly. We also find that it will have a substantial impact on the public finances of some Asian economies.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48886452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Enabling an Innovation Ecosystem and Participation at the Higher End of Global Value Chains 构建创新生态系统，参与全球价值链高端
IF 1.5
Asian Development Review Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110521500013
Minsoo Lee, R. Gaspar, Huiyan Du
{"title":"Enabling an Innovation Ecosystem and Participation at the Higher End of Global Value Chains","authors":"Minsoo Lee, R. Gaspar, Huiyan Du","doi":"10.1142/s0116110521500013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0116110521500013","url":null,"abstract":"Moving up the global value chain requires an enabling innovation ecosystem alongside economy-specific endowments, a mix of supportive policies in broad areas of infrastructure and institutions, and other enabling factors. Examining sample economies globally and in developing Asia, the empirical results suggest that during the transition from a low level of upgrading in a global value chain to a medium-level one, efforts should focus on increasing the scale of innovation inputs, allowing firms to improve in many areas of their capacity to innovate. To move higher up a global value chain, the design of innovation policies should gradually emphasize the production of technological, knowledge, and creative outputs.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46182327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Policy-Driven Boom and Bust in the Housing Market: Evidence from Mongolia 政策驱动的房地产市场繁荣与萧条:来自蒙古的证据
IF 1.5
Asian Development Review Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110521500050
Gan‐Ochir Doojav, Davaasukh Damdinjav
{"title":"Policy-Driven Boom and Bust in the Housing Market: Evidence from Mongolia","authors":"Gan‐Ochir Doojav, Davaasukh Damdinjav","doi":"10.1142/s0116110521500050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0116110521500050","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effects of a mortgage interest rate subsidy on booms and busts in the housing market by analyzing the Housing Mortgage program in Mongolia. We find that the most recent housing boom in Mongolia occurred from the second quarter (Q2) of 2012 to first quarter (Q1) of 2014, and that the subsequent housing bust lasted 4 years. Both house-specific factors and macroeconomic variables had a significant influence on housing price dynamics. Mortgage interest rate semielasticity and real household income elasticity were estimated as −3 and 1.4, respectively. Dynamic analysis of the estimated vector error correction models suggests that the country’s policy intervention in the mortgage market—introducing an interest rate subsidy on mortgage loans for residential properties of up to 80 square meters—drove the recent housing boom in Mongolia.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45921949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The ADB COVID-19 Policy Database: A Guide to Understanding Changes in Sectoral Balances and Private Sector Financial Positions in 2020 亚洲开发银行新冠肺炎政策数据库：了解2020年部门平衡和私营部门财务状况变化的指南
IF 1.5
Asian Development Review Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110521500062
J. Felipe, Scott T. Fullwiler, Al-Habbyel Yusoph
{"title":"The ADB COVID-19 Policy Database: A Guide to Understanding Changes in Sectoral Balances and Private Sector Financial Positions in 2020","authors":"J. Felipe, Scott T. Fullwiler, Al-Habbyel Yusoph","doi":"10.1142/s0116110521500062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0116110521500062","url":null,"abstract":"The Asian Development Bank COVID-19 Policy Database recently added an entry on sector financial balances (SFBs). This addition to the policy database provides information for 35 economies on the financial positions of the private sector, government sector, and the rest of the world, which by construction add up to 0. Data used to calculate SFBs are obtained directly from flow-of-funds accounts. When this source is not available, we obtain data from the national accounts. We use SFBs to understand why the private sector balance moved into a large surplus in 2020. We argue that this surplus is a mirror image of the fiscal deficit.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49001805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Discouraged Worker Effect and Labor Market Behavior of Urban Married Women 城市已婚妇女的就业气馁效应与劳动力市场行为
IF 1.5
Asian Development Review Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110521500098
Deeksha Tayal, Sourabh B. Paul
{"title":"Discouraged Worker Effect and Labor Market Behavior of Urban Married Women","authors":"Deeksha Tayal, Sourabh B. Paul","doi":"10.1142/s0116110521500098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0116110521500098","url":null,"abstract":"The study investigates the importance of poor local labor market conditions in explaining the labor market behavior of married women in urban India. Using nationally representative employment data, we empirically test for the existence of a discouraged worker effect arising from either of two mechanisms: (i) unexplained gender wage gap, or (ii) degree of underemployment. A three-stage, district-level analysis of female labor market behavior was undertaken, and selectivity bias was controlled for by using censored probit in the second stage and trivariate probit with Geweke–Hajivassiliou–Keane smooth recursive simulator technique in the third stage of this multilevel framework. We find evidence that the wage gap discourages women from participating in the labor market and the prevalence of underemployment, in terms of overqualification by occupation, discourages them from exploring better job opportunities by making on-job search efforts.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44084745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
On the Two Catching-Up Mechanisms in Asian Development 论亚洲发展的两种追赶机制
IF 1.5
Asian Development Review Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110521500074
Takuma Kunieda, K. Okada, Y. Sawada, Akihisa Shibata
{"title":"On the Two Catching-Up Mechanisms in Asian Development","authors":"Takuma Kunieda, K. Okada, Y. Sawada, Akihisa Shibata","doi":"10.1142/s0116110521500074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0116110521500074","url":null,"abstract":"Existing studies identify two major underlying mechanisms behind East and Southeast Asia’s miraculous economic performance in the past 5 decades: accumulation and technological catching-up. This study investigates empirically the relative importance of these two mechanisms in Asian development based on a unified framework. Using canonical cross-economy panel data, the study arrives at three important findings. First, while the process of catching-up through capital accumulation played an important role worldwide, this mechanism was more salient in Asia than in other economies around the globe, especially during the region’s early phase of growth and development. Second, human capital formation had a significant positive effect on the technological catching-up process worldwide. In particular, human capital formation promoted technology adoption more strongly in Asia than in the rest of the world. Third, innovation has also been critical in facilitating recent growth in Asian economies. These results suggest that Asia’s capital-accumulation-driven growth in the early phase induced human capital formation and international technological transfers at later phases, with strong complementarities between these two types of capital. Asian economies likely went through three phases of catching-up, that is, capital accumulation, technological imitation, and then innovation. The experiences of these Asian economies in the last several decades provide critical lessons for latecomer growth and development.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49331985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investigating ASEAN’s Participation in Global Value Chains: Production Fragmentation and Regional Integration 东盟参与全球价值链研究:生产碎片化与区域一体化
IF 1.5
Asian Development Review Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110521500025
Sheng Zhong, B. Su
{"title":"Investigating ASEAN’s Participation in Global Value Chains: Production Fragmentation and Regional Integration","authors":"Sheng Zhong, B. Su","doi":"10.1142/s0116110521500025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0116110521500025","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—a major final assembler in production—where studies and evidence on the role of the region in global value chains are limited. We seek to provide new evidence regarding the extent and patterns of international fragmentation in ASEAN. To do so, we derive the foreign value-added shares of final products for all global value chains of ASEAN. Using the Asian Development Bank’s multiregional input–output tables for 2000–2017, we document a series of stylized facts. The results show declining foreign value-added shares in ASEAN. Regional economic integration within ASEAN has increased, while value-added contributions vary widely across its members. We find evidence of increasing value-added contributions from emerging economies to ASEAN, whereas the contributions from advanced economies have declined.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48202978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Constructing a Coincident Economic Indicator for India: How Well Does It Track Gross Domestic Product? 为印度构建一个巧合的经济指标：它对国内生产总值的跟踪效果如何？
IF 1.5
Asian Development Review Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110521500104
S. Bhadury, Saurabh Ghosh, Pankaj Kumar
{"title":"Constructing a Coincident Economic Indicator for India: How Well Does It Track Gross Domestic Product?","authors":"S. Bhadury, Saurabh Ghosh, Pankaj Kumar","doi":"10.1142/s0116110521500104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0116110521500104","url":null,"abstract":"In India, the first official estimate of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) is released approximately 7–8 weeks after the end of the reference quarter. To provide an early estimate of current quarter GDP growth, we construct Coincident Economic Indicators for India (CEIIs) using a sequentially expanding list of 6, 9, and 12 high-frequency indicators. These indicators represent various sectors, display high contemporaneous correlation with GDP, and track GDP turning points well. CEII-6 includes domestic economic activity indicators, while CEII-9 incorporates indicators of trade and services and CEII-12 adds financial indicators in the model. We include a financial block in CEII-12 to reflect the growing influence of the financial sector on economic activity. CEIIs are estimated using a dynamic factor model which extracts a common trend underlying the high-frequency indicators. The extracted trend provides a real-time assessment of the state of the economy and helps identify sectors contributing to economic fluctuations. Furthermore, GDP nowcasts using CEIIs show considerable gains in both in-sample and out-of-sample accuracy. In particular, we observe that our GDP growth nowcast closely tracks the recent slowdown in the Indian economy.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47096786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Long-Term Dynamics of Poverty Transitions in India 印度贫困转型的长期动态
IF 1.5
Asian Development Review Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110521500049
A. Sahasranaman
{"title":"Long-Term Dynamics of Poverty Transitions in India","authors":"A. Sahasranaman","doi":"10.1142/s0116110521500049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0116110521500049","url":null,"abstract":"I use a stochastic model to explore the dynamics of poverty in India from 1952 to 2006 and find that temporal transitions into and out of poverty are common. Model outcomes suggest that transitions out of poverty outnumber transitions into poverty in recent times, but that there is still a nontrivial proportion of individuals transitioning annually into poverty, highlighting the economic fragility of those near the poverty line. There is also a marked persistence of poverty over time, and although this has been slowly declining, past poverty remains a good predictor of current poverty. Particularly concerning in this context are the income trajectories of those in the bottom decile of the income distribution for whom escape from poverty appears infeasible given extant income dynamics. Finally, the dynamics suggest that transitional and persistent poverty are distinct phenomena that require distinct policy responses involving both missing markets and state action.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46359265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Government Intervention, Institutional Quality, and Income Inequality: Evidence from Asia and the Pacific, 1988–2014 政府干预、制度质量与收入不平等:来自亚洲和太平洋地区的证据，1988-2014
IF 1.5
Asian Development Review Pub Date : 2021-03-22 DOI: 10.1162/ADEV_A_00162
B. Blancheton, Dina Chhorn
{"title":"Government Intervention, Institutional Quality, and Income Inequality: Evidence from Asia and the Pacific, 1988–2014","authors":"B. Blancheton, Dina Chhorn","doi":"10.1162/ADEV_A_00162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/ADEV_A_00162","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We examine the linear and nonlinear long-run relationship between public expenditure and institutional quality, and income inequality in Asia and the Pacific. By applying panel cointegration methods using a dataset from 1988 to 2014, our main findings suggest that public expenditure and institutional quality have negative long-run, steady-state effects on income inequality in Asia and the Pacific. The effect of institutional quality has only a one-way Granger causality link to income inequality. The existence of a nonlinear relationship between public expenditure and institutional factors linked to income inequality is also found. It implies that, at the early stage of institutional development, a country whose economy has experienced higher public expenditure generates rising income inequality; then, in the long run, when the country improves its institutional quality, higher public expenditure results in lower income inequality.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46235557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
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