政策驱动的房地产市场繁荣与萧条:来自蒙古的证据

IF 1 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Asian Development Review Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI:10.1142/s0116110521500050

Gan‐Ochir Doojav, Davaasukh Damdinjav

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文通过分析蒙古的住房抵押贷款计划，考察了抵押贷款利率补贴对住房市场繁荣和萧条的影响。我们发现，蒙古最近的房地产繁荣发生在2012年第二季度至2014年第一季度，随后的房地产萧条持续了4年。住房特定因素和宏观经济变量都对房价动态产生了重大影响。抵押贷款利率半弹性和实际家庭收入弹性分别估计为-3和1.4。对估计向量误差校正模型的动态分析表明，该国对抵押贷款市场的政策干预——对80平方米以下的住宅物业的抵押贷款实行利率补贴——推动了蒙古最近的房地产繁荣。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Policy-Driven Boom and Bust in the Housing Market: Evidence from Mongolia

This paper examines the effects of a mortgage interest rate subsidy on booms and busts in the housing market by analyzing the Housing Mortgage program in Mongolia. We find that the most recent housing boom in Mongolia occurred from the second quarter (Q2) of 2012 to first quarter (Q1) of 2014, and that the subsequent housing bust lasted 4 years. Both house-specific factors and macroeconomic variables had a significant influence on housing price dynamics. Mortgage interest rate semielasticity and real household income elasticity were estimated as −3 and 1.4, respectively. Dynamic analysis of the estimated vector error correction models suggests that the country’s policy intervention in the mortgage market—introducing an interest rate subsidy on mortgage loans for residential properties of up to 80 square meters—drove the recent housing boom in Mongolia.

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来源期刊

Asian Development Review Social Sciences-Development

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

53 weeks

期刊介绍： The Asian Development Review is a professional journal for disseminating the results of economic and development research carried out by staff and resource persons of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The Review stresses policy and operational relevance of development issues rather than the technical aspects of economics and other social sciences. Articles are refereed and intended for readership among economists and social scientists in government, private sector, academia, and international organizations.