International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application最新文献

{"title":"Determination of stochastic shear strength parameters of a real landslide by back analysis","authors":"A. Johari, Yaser Peiro","doi":"10.30699/ijrrs.4.1.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30699/ijrrs.4.1.2","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most hazardous phenomena leading to enormous monetary loss and threatening human life is slope instability. The major contributors to such disasters are slope geometry, slope material strength, geohydrological condition, structural discontinuity, weathering, development of weak zones, lithological disturbance, and heavy rainfall. As the accuracy of parameters obtained from geotechnical investigations is vital for a practical understanding of the geotechnical project, the back analysis is a pragmatic approach to forecast and control landslide and slope instability. The current paper presents a stochastic back analysis of a recent landslide near a highway located in the south of Iran. Some background information has been gathered through air photos, field observations, and photographs indicating slope failure is pretty recent, and some boreholes were drilled to obtain the required geotechnical parameters of the soil media. Due to the uncertainties in these parameters, the stochastic back analysis approach was adopted. To this end, soil strength parameters have been calculated using the FEM program coded in MATLAB. Results that properly aligned with the findings of the post-event investigations showed a computationally more efficient back analysis approach. The improved knowledge of the geotechnical strength parameters gained through the stochastic back analysis better elucidated the slope failure mechanism, which provides a basis for a more rational selection of remedial measures.","PeriodicalId":395350,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114410270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving Accuracy in Importance Sampling: An Integrated Approach with Fuzzy-Strata Sampling","authors":"M. Nadjafi, Adel Najafi ARK","doi":"10.30699/ijrrs.4.1.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30699/ijrrs.4.1.8","url":null,"abstract":"Several statistical approaches have been developed to analyze the sampling of huge data and information. There are three significant factors for comparison of the strength of these methods that are argued in this paper; the proposed method is a compatible approach to various types of sampling methods and applied to improve the sampling efficiency and decrease uncertainties to reach accuracy in results. In argued methods, each element just belongs to one category and/ or strata, but in our approach, each element includes all groups with one exception that membership values are different. The case study results show that the proposed Fuzzy Strata Sampling (FSS) method better measures uncertainty and accuracy rate than the other existing sampling methods.","PeriodicalId":395350,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130215263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic Reliability Analysis of Moment Resisting Concrete Frames","authors":"Aram Saaed, M. Daghigh","doi":"10.30699/ijrrs.4.1.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30699/ijrrs.4.1.3","url":null,"abstract":"A comprehensive reliability analysis of moment resisting frame is presented in this article in which uncertainties in loadings, material properties, and member cross section properties are included. Performance of designed structures and their reliability in real earthquakes is an important issue these days. In this research study, two moment resisting concrete frame structures, which is the most common type of structures in Iran, are designed based on Section 9 of the Iran National Building Regulations and its analytical model is constructed. Using OpenSEES software, the finite element simulations and reliability analyses are performed with different distribution functions for the mentioned parameters. By using the generated parameters, the ultimate limit functions for structural failure are examined. Results show that incorporating uncertainties in loading, cross section dimension, and material properties could result in a considerable impact on reliability of designed structures.","PeriodicalId":395350,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application","volume":"383 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115948707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of the Possible Hazards of an Ethanol Storage Tank","authors":"T. Khosravi, Zahra Sojoudi","doi":"10.30699/ijrrs.4.1.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30699/ijrrs.4.1.5","url":null,"abstract":"The presence of chemicals in process industries such as the food industry has always been subject to risks like fire, explosion and release of toxic substances. The occurrence of such incidents have serious impact on the funds and life resources. In this article, we have tried to identify hazards of Ethanol storage tank with PHAST modeling to provide solutions to reduce and manage risks in Behnoush Iran Company. The most dangerous scenarios were selected according to the available conditions 100 mm diameter tank leakage, 3 Inches diameter short pipe leakage and Tank rupture in the summer and winter cases. According to the results, a leak with diameter of 100 mm with radiation of 37.5 KW/m2 and catastrophic rupture are also very dangerous due to the suddenness of the accident and has the ability to damage the tanks. Therefore, by modeling and evaluating the consequences of such accidents, it was proposed to reduce the hazards and prevent the occurrence of more serious accidents by using more advanced fire detection and firefighting equipment, the use of fireproof structures, continuous training of people, and the promotion of safety culture and fire team deployment .","PeriodicalId":395350,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123622475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving Reliability from View of Buyer-Seller by Optimal Reconfiguration: Applicability to Lorestan Distribution Network","authors":"M. Hajivand, Reza Hajivand, Majid Golmohamadi, M. Karrabi","doi":"10.30699/ijrrs.4.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30699/ijrrs.4.1.1","url":null,"abstract":"Reconfiguration of distribution networks by a series of switching operations is a simple and inexpensive way to improve reliability and reduce power losses, which without the addition of additional equipment to the network, makes optimal use of distribution systems. In this paper, optimal reconfiguration is proposed to improve reliability and minimize power losses as objective functions. To demonstrate the functionality and applicability of the proposed method, five states are defined based on the trade-off between buyer-seller. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm has been used to solve this problem. Then, the proposed method has been implemented on the Lorestan Distribution Network.","PeriodicalId":395350,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129234115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving Reliability of Complex Systems Using Analyses Obtained Through Design Structure Matrix and Interactive Failure Detection Procedures","authors":"M. Karbasian, farzane sharifi, Mohammad Hussein Karimi Govareshki, M. Kazerooni","doi":"10.30699/ijrrs.4.1.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30699/ijrrs.4.1.6","url":null,"abstract":"The process of development and expansion of advanced industries reveals the need to implement more and more predictive methods and mechanisms in readiness to deal with possible failures. With complexities inherent in systems, having a proper and all-embracing model of the entirety of a system is not readily possible. Design structure matrices (DSMs) are regarded as great (a great) help in communicating, comparing, and integrating partial system models. Given that there are numerous relationships among subsystems in complex systems, it is expected that interactive failures occur giving rise to diverse problems as well as gradual or abrupt failures in the system. Correlational dependent (Correlational-dependent) failures, commonly known as interactive failures, most frequently occur in mechanical systems. In this study, we have exploited DSM for identifying interactive failures and the relationships existing among different components in complex systems. The latter matrix is generally used in industries for observing the strengths of existing relationships among interacting elements. From another perspective, by analyzing the relationships among elements and identifying coils and curls, it is possible to investigate the existing nodes in loops. Implementing this procedure leads to identifying critical components and interactive failures, eventually bringing about enhanced reliability in the system. The present paper, while considering prevailing methods adopted in previous studies for selecting critical parts and subsystems, proposes a new method for selecting critical parts so as (delete so as) to increase the reliability rates. The method set forth is derived from the Markov chain model in addition to employing mathematical methods in matrices. hypothetical system. The relationships in this system in graphs and matrices. The hypothetical system exhibited to substantiate the assumptions and the matrix methods and the Markov chain stochastic model employed.","PeriodicalId":395350,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126947632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Masked Data Analysis based on the Generalized Linear Model","authors":"Hasan Misaii, F. Haghighi, S. E. Mahabadi","doi":"10.30699/IJRRS.3.2.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30699/IJRRS.3.2.1","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we consider the estimation problem in the presence of masked data for series systems. A missing indicator is proposed to describe masked set of each failure time.Moreover, a Generalized Linear model (GLM) with appropriate link function is used to model masked indicator in order to involve masked information into likelihood function. Both maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods were considered.The likelihood function with both missing at random (MAR) and missing not at random (MNAR) mechanismsare derived.Using an auxiliary variable, a Bayesian approach is expanded to obtain posterior estimations of the model parameters.The proposed methods have been illustrated through a real example.","PeriodicalId":395350,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application","volume":"257 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122825824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Use Piecewise Crow-AMSAA Method to Predict Infection and Death of Corona virus in Iran","authors":"P. Gholami, S. Elahian","doi":"10.30699/ijrrs.3.2.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30699/ijrrs.3.2.9","url":null,"abstract":"Reliability growth is the positive improvement in a product’s criteria (or parameter) over a period of time due to changes in the design or product process. By analyzing the growth of reliability in a system, it can be seen that at a certain stage of the epidemic, the growth of the transmission and the rate of infection change over time. During the spread of disease, problem areas are identified and knowledge of the disease increased and then initial treatment and tools may be redesigned or reprocessed to take appropriate corrective action. In other words, each stage of the spread of the disease has a different level of growth transmission depending on appropriate corrective action. Therefore, according to this case, there are conditions under which phenomena can be described by Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP). However, traditional epidemiological models based on exponential distribution are not able to predict disease growth during different stages of the outbreak. Therefore, in this paper, the Piecewise Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model, which is based on the Non-Homogeneous Poisson process, is used to predict the growth of infected cases and deaths of Coronavirus outbreak. Initially, the Iran cumulative confirmed case and death data are divided into several sections based on the manual separation to find out each different infection phase at each different time period. Then Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model is applied to the segmented data. At each stage of the outbreak, the model parameters are estimated independently using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique. Finally, the growth parameters in each stage are compared with each other and external and environmental factors are identified and examined. Keyword: Coronavirus, Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP), Piecewise Crow-AMSAA (NHPP), Infected cases, Deaths.","PeriodicalId":395350,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application","volume":"341 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122268113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of a Batch Arrival Retrial Queue with k-Phase Services, Feedback, Vacation, Delay, Repair and Admission","authors":"Saeed Abdollahi, M. R. Salehi Rad","doi":"10.30699/ijrrs.3.2.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30699/ijrrs.3.2.4","url":null,"abstract":"Queueing theory is a way for real-world problems modeling and analyzing. In many processes, the input is converted to the desired output after several successive steps. But usually limitations and conditions such as Lack of space, feedback, vacation, failure, repair, etc. have a great impact on process efficiency.This article deals with the modeling the steady-state behavior of a retrial queueing system with phases of service. The arriving batches join the system with dependent admission due to the server state.If the customers find the server busy, they join the orbit to repeat their request. Although, the first phase of service is essential for all customers, any customer has three options after the completion of the phase . They may take the phase of service with probability , otherwise return the orbit with probability or leave the system with probability . Also, after each phase, the probabilistic failure, delay, repair and vacation are considered.In this article, after finding the steady-state distributions, the probability generating functions of the system and orbit size have been found. Then, some important performance measures of the system have been derived. Also, the system reliability has been defined. Eventually, to demonstrate the capability of the proposed model, the sensitivity analysis of performance measures via some model parameters (arrival/retrial/vacation rate) in different reliability levels have been investigated in a specific case of this model. Additionally, for optimizing the performance of system, some technical suggestions are presented. Keyword:Bernoulli vacation, Feedback, Performance measures, Retrial queue, State-dependent admission, Repair, Delay, Reliability","PeriodicalId":395350,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127915201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Parametric Study of Torsional Damper on Crankshaft Life Assessment of an IC Engine","authors":"H. Karimaei, H. Chamani","doi":"10.30699/ijrrs.3.2.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30699/ijrrs.3.2.5","url":null,"abstract":"Torsional vibration (TV) is one of the major issues and very important calculation for the safe running of internal combustion engines, specifically crankshaft. The properties of parts connected to the crankshaft have significant effect on vibration of the system as well as the crankshaft life. Initial selection of this part is usually specified based on engine designer experience and also the torsional vibration calculation of the crank train. In this paper, the focus is to find optimum tuned mass to connect to the crankshaft from the damper side using CAE tools. It is a mounting disk at the free end of the crankshaft named tuned mass. Therefore, the effect of tuned mass inertia on design criteria, especially crankshaft life, was investigated. The results show high sensitivity of high cycle fatigue safety factor of crankshaft to tuned mass. Therefore, adding a suitable tuned mass to the system can increase the crankshaft life, when needed. The results were presented in the paper in detail.","PeriodicalId":395350,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125119297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}