African Journal of Infectious Diseases最新文献

{"title":"ASSESSING THE KNOWLEDGE OF SMALLPOX AND MONKEYPOX VIRUS AMONG THE UNIVERSITY OF TLEMCEN MEMBERS IN THE WAKE OF COVID-19: A 2023 CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY.","authors":"Zatla Ilyes, Abid Wafa, Boublenza Lamia","doi":"10.21010/Ajidv18i1.2","DOIUrl":"10.21010/Ajidv18i1.2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>A recently-surfaced virus called Monkeypox virus (MPXV) has gained widespread attention as it dominates the news, creating a sense of panic among people due to the potential threat it poses to their health.</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>To evaluate knowledge about this virus and its disease, and to raise consciousness among the members of the Faculty of Natural and Life Sciences and Earth and Universe Sciences at the University of Tlemcen, we launched an online web-based survey for a twenty days' period that contained sociodemographic and perceptiveness questions about the emergent virus, its disease, and vaccination.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Our findings showed that the majority of the respondents of our study have a satisfactory level of knowledge about this emerging virus and its disease. Moreover, most participants showed a positive attitude towards the vaccine, considering it the best preventive means to fight against Monkeypox disease.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Although the MPXV may not become a pandemic, but knowing the various ways that contribute to its spread is essential to avoid any possibility of a new one, especially in Algeria.</p>","PeriodicalId":39108,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"18 1","pages":"5-10"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10696654/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138499677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"COVID-19: THE NEED FOR INCREASED RECOGNITION OF CUTANEOUS MANIFESTATIONS - LETTER TO THE EDITOR.","authors":"Odekunle A, Kafi O, Olaiya A, Olatunji O","doi":"10.21010/Ajidv17i2S.5","DOIUrl":"10.21010/Ajidv17i2S.5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39108,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"17 2 Suppl","pages":"25-26"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10564106/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41215361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"BACKSLIDING ON CHILDHOOD IMMUNIZATIONS DUE TO ONGOING COVID-19 PANDEMIC: A RETROSPECTIVE STUDY IN BANADIR REGION, SOMALIA.","authors":"Orey Fartun Abdullahi H,&nbsp;Sheik Mohamud Kadra Hassan,&nbsp;Abdulle Iftin Abdi Nor,&nbsp;Mohamoud Jamal Hassan,&nbsp;Garba Bashiru,&nbsp;Adam Mohamed Hussein,&nbsp;Dahie Hassan Abdullahi,&nbsp;Sh Nur Maryan Abdullahi,&nbsp;Dirie Najib Isse","doi":"10.21010/Ajidv17i2S.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21010/Ajidv17i2S.2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in a global public health crisis. During the pandemic, considerable delay was observed making it impossible for some children to receive their due vaccines on time. Like most resource-poor countries, COVID-19 pandemic is thought to have a negative impact on Somalia's immunization coverage.</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>This study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on routine childhood immunization coverage in Somalia. A retrospective comparative cross-sectional approach was employed to investigate the number of under-5-year children who got their immunization from the two major mother and child hospital, (Banadir and SOS hospitals) in Mogadishu, Somalia from October 2019 to December 2020. To do this, a total of 112, 060 data relating to the routine childhood immunization (measles, polio, whooping cough, hepatitis B, pneumonia, and tuberculosis) were collected from the monthly immunization report-data from the two hospitals.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The results showed that all the vaccines except birth vaccines have remarkably dropped with Penta-3 (27%), Penta-2 (11%), measles (10%) and Penta-1 (8%) respectively. However, the birth vaccines (BCG and Polio 0) were not affected as observed in this study. The reduction in children immunization rate in Somalia may be a combination of many other factors, we however recognize that the COVID-19 pandemic may have contributed significantly to this outcome .</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The government needed to take proactive measures to encourage parents to present their children for immunizations, including increasing community awareness concerning the importance of these routine childhood immunizations despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemics.</p>","PeriodicalId":39108,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"17 2 Suppl","pages":"6-12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10564103/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41215360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ETIOLOGIES OF INFECTIONS IN DIABETIC PATIENTS HOSPITALIZED AT BOUAKE UNIVERTY TEACHING HOSPITAL, CÔTE D'IVOIRE.","authors":"Kone Djakaridja, Kone Famoussa, Yapo Martine Tatiana, Kadiane-Oussou Juliette, Kone Salifou, Karidioula Jean-Marie, Kouame Gille Renaud, Acho Jean Kevin, Kra Ouffoué, Ouattara Bourheima","doi":"10.21010/Ajidv17i2S.1","DOIUrl":"10.21010/Ajidv17i2S.1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Diabetic infections are frequent and the etiologies are multiple. The present study aims to identify the etiologies of the infections of the diabetic patient hospitalized in the University Teaching Hospital of Bouake in Côte d'Ivoire.</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>This was a retrospective cross-sectional study conducted in the Internal Medicine Department from January 2019 to December 2020. The study population consisted of hospitalized and infected diabetic patients. Of this study population we included in the study 136 patients. Data analysis was done with Epi Info 7.2.3.1 software.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The prevalence of infection in hospitalized diabetics was 75.1%. The mean age of the patients was 52 ± 13.4 years. The sex ratio was 0.7. Diabetes was incidentally discovered in 50% and type 2 diabetes (88.2%) predominated. The reasons for hospitalization were dominated by ketoacidosis (58.1%), glycemic imbalance (19.1%) and hyperosmolar hyperglycemia syndrome (10.3%). Fever was present in 41.2% of cases. The infectious foci were urinary tract infections (29.4%), pneumopathies (28.7%), malaria (21.3%), skin infections (13.2%) and the undetermined focus (7.3%). The infectious focus was unique in 90.4%. The germs identified were plasmodium (21.3%), Escherichia coli (8.8%), staphylococcus (8.3%), yeasts (8.3%) and Enterobacter (6.7%). Beta-lactams (75.6%) were the most prescribed anti-infective treatment. Mortality was 14.7% related to type 1 diabetes (p=0.001), duration of diabetes greater than 5 years (p=0.005), hospitalization latency greater than 7 days (p=0.001), mucocutaneous focus (p=0.005) and Undetermined foci (p=0.001).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Diabetic infections are frequent and the etiologies are varied. They must be systematically sought in hospitalized diabetics.</p>","PeriodicalId":39108,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"17 2 Suppl","pages":"1-5"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10564107/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41215362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"<i>GYRB</i> - POLYMERASE CHAIN REACTION AND HISTOPATHOLOGIC CHARACTERISTIC FIGURE POTENTIAL FOR DETERMINING DIAGNOSIS OF TUBERCULOUS LYMPHADENITIS.","authors":"Herlambang Wahyu,&nbsp;Mertaniasih Ni Made,&nbsp;Soedarsono Soedarsono,&nbsp;Sandhika Willy","doi":"10.21010/Ajidv17i2S.3","DOIUrl":"10.21010/Ajidv17i2S.3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>TB lymphadenitis is still a problem that needs serious treatment. In Indonesia, it was reported that 53% of TB cases were extrapulmonary tuberculosis, with the most cases being Lymphadenitis TB, 11.6%. In children, 43% of extrapulmonary tuberculosis cases are TB lymphadenitis. Diagnosis is quite difficult; a method of determining the diagnosis and appropriate comprehensive treatment is required in managing TB Lymphadenitis.</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>In this study, 15 fine needle aspiration biopsy aspirate samples were subjected to molecular examination using the gyrB-polymerase chain reaction method and histopathological observations using the smear method with hematoxylin-eosin staining. Observation of preparations using a microscope with a magnification of 200x.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The histopathological characteristics of the fine needle aspiration biopsy aspirate showed positive results in 4 out of 15 samples, with epithelioid cells arranged in a characteristic granuloma structure, necrotic debris was visible, and cells joined together to form multinucleated giant cells as an inflammatory response to <i>Mycobacterium tuberculosis</i> complex infection. In this study, 6 out of 15 (40%) were detected to be positive in the diagnosis based on molecular detection using a specific target gene gyrB - polymerase chain reaction .</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Characteristic features on histopathological examination associated with gyrB - positive polymerase chain reaction on lymphadenitis <i>fine needle aspiration biopsy</i> aspirate samples can be used as a determinant diagnosis of tuberculous lymphadenitis.</p>","PeriodicalId":39108,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"17 2 Suppl","pages":"13-18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10564104/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41215359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"OVERVIEW OF COVID-19 CASES IN PREGNANCY AT THE HOSPITAL UNIVERSITAS SUMATERA UTARA, INDONESIA, WHEN THE PANDEMIC STORM HIT IN THE 2020-2022 PERIOD.","authors":"Muhammad Ernesto Azguevara Ganis Siregar,&nbsp;Henry Salim Siregar,&nbsp;Muara Panusunan Lubis,&nbsp;Ichwanul Adenin,&nbsp;Irwin Lamtota Lumbanraja","doi":"10.21010/Ajidv17i2S.4","DOIUrl":"10.21010/Ajidv17i2S.4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>COVID-19 (Coronavirus 2019) is caused by SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus-2), an acute infectious disease primarily affecting the respiratory system. Data on COVID-19 exposure during pregnancy and issues associated with COVID-19 during pregnancy remain limited. This research aimed to determine the number of pregnant women infected by COVID-19, laboratory test findings of pregnant women related to COVID-19 infection, infant outcome from mother with or without COVID-19 infection and referential status for COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 pregnant women at the USU Hospital during the 2020-2022 period.</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>This research was conducted using a descriptive method with a cross-sectional study approach using a non-probability sampling technique by collecting secondary data from COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 pregnant women at the USU Hospital during the 2020-2022 period, where 112 samples were obtained.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The majority of COVID-19 pregnant women and non-COVID-19 pregnant women have been identified sequentially based on Hb (11.6%-decreased vs 79.5%-normal); Ht (11.6%-decreased vs 76.8%-increased); leukocytes (11.6%-increased vs 83%-normal); thrombocytes (8.9%-normal vs 86.6%-normal); PT (9.8%-normal vs 50.9%-normal); APTT (11.6%-normal vs 87.5%-normal); D-dimer (11.6%-long vs 56.3%-long); procalcitonin (7.1%-increased vs 87.5%-normal); NLR (8%-increased vs 82.1%-normal); CRP (12.5%-increased vs 87.5%-normal) and all of the baby outcomes were non-COVID-19 and the majority of pregnant women were not referred.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Based on the data in this study, the majority of pregnant women and babies at the USU Hospital during the 2020-2022 period were non-COVID-19 positive and with non-referral status. Laboratory findings of COVID-19 in pregnancy significantly reveals abnormalities.</p>","PeriodicalId":39108,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"17 2 Suppl","pages":"19-24"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10564105/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41215363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"REVISITING THE EBOLA EPIDEMIC IN WEST AFRICA: THE ROLE OF EMOTIONAL DETERMINANTS IN PUBLIC RESPONSES.","authors":"Kousoulis Antonis A, Grant Imogen F, Duncan Joshua A, Larson Heidi J","doi":"10.21010/Ajidv17i2.3","DOIUrl":"10.21010/Ajidv17i2.3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic was largely restricted to the three nations of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, yet it tested the world's ability to address a potential global pandemic. This study provides an in-depth examination of the role of emotions in the response to the outbreak and engagement with public health measures, and the contextual factors which influenced them.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Historical research methods were utilised in the examination of primary and secondary sources. A multi-faceted SPEECH (Society and Politics, Economy, Epidemiology, Culture, Healthcare and Public Health) framework was developed to aid data synthesis and analysis.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The outbreak occurred in a region still reeling from years of civil war, where poverty was widespread and healthcare severely underfunded. Internationally, global health security had been politically neglected. After a slow start, the international response to the outbreak was strong, yet the lack of community engagement and inadequate consideration of local culture and traditional beliefs, fueled fear and hindered engagement with professionals and uptake of public health measures. Improved collaboration and communication with rural communities in the latter phases of the response was crucial in effectively addressing the outbreak.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This study illustrates the importance of effective collaboration between international crisis responders, in-country public health practitioners and local communities in addressing public emotional responses to the Ebola outbreak. It highlights how community engagement and communications tactics can effectively be utilised to soothe and educate the public, abating counterproductive extreme emotional responses, and in turn improving uptake of public health measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":39108,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"17 2","pages":"14-22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10158957/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9430225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"THE ROLE OF AGE AND COMORBIDITIES ON THE OUTCOME OF CONFIRMED CLINICALLY CRITICAL COVID-19 PATIENTS TREATED WITH REMDESIVIR AT INDONESIA'S NATIONAL REFERRAL HOSPITAL.","authors":"Usman Elly,&nbsp;Katar Yusticia","doi":"10.21010/Ajidv17i1.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21010/Ajidv17i1.5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>There is currently no viable pharmaceutical therapy for COVID-19 illness that has been validated. The use of remdesivir is one of the medications for which there is no consistent evidence of a significant therapeutic benefit or a meaningful effect on survival.</p><p><strong>Aim: </strong>The aim of this study was to determine the role of age and comorbidities on the outcome of confirmed clinically critical COVID-19 patients treated with remdesivir at Indonesia's National Referral Hospital.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A retrospective cohort study was used in this study. The subjects in this study were confirmed clinically critical COVID-19 patients who were treated at Dr. M Djamil Hospital Padang, one of Indonesia's national referral hospitals, from January 2 to June 30, 2021. The number of sample size in this study was 90 patients. The variables of this study were divided into three independent variables (age, comorbidities, and a number of comorbidities). A dependent variable was the outcome of confirmed clinically critical COVID-19 patients. The Chi-square test was performed in bivariate analysis, and the odds ratio was calculated. SPSS version 17.0 was used to analyze the data.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The results of this study found that there was an association between ages 50-59 years (OR = 10.23, 95% CI 1.89-55.53), 60-69 years (OR = 4.58, 95% CI 1.25-16.76), and > 70 years (OR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.38 -9.59), comorbid diabetes mellitus (OR = 9.78, 95% CI 1.23-77.66), the number of comorbid > 1 (OR = 10.97, 95% CI 2.19-54.96, and the number of comorbid 1 (OR = 5.69, 95% CI 1.59- 20.41) with the outcome of confirmed clinically critical COVID-19 patients treated with remdesivir.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The significance of age and comorbidities on the outcome of COVID-19 patients treated with remdesivir at Indonesia's national referral hospital was confirmed in this study. This study could assist in the management of patient therapy, potentially decreasing morbidity and even patient mortality.</p>","PeriodicalId":39108,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"17 1","pages":"55-59"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9885022/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9252891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"OBESITY AND OUTCOME AMONG PATIENTS HOSPITALIZED FOR SARS-COV-2: A HOSPITAL-BASED STUDY IN INDONESIA.","authors":"Masrul Masrul,&nbsp;Usman Elly,&nbsp;Febri Dewi Susanti","doi":"10.21010/Ajidv17i2.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21010/Ajidv17i2.5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Patients with obesity who have SARS-CoV-2 are at significant risk for developing serious clinical problems that need intensive care and have a bad prognosis.</p><p><strong>Aim: </strong>The aim of this study was to determine obesity and outcome among patients hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 at the Indonesia's national referral hospital.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study used a retrospective cohort. The study samples were SARS-CoV-2 patients who were treated by pulmonary specialists in the intensive room of Dr. M. Djamil Hospital Padang. The number of samples in this study was 106 subjects. Data analysis was performed using the Chi-square test, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox regression. P < 0.05 was significant, and the data were analyzed using the SPSS version 21.0 program.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The results of this study found obesity was associated with the outcome of SARS-CoV-2 patients treated at Indonesia's national referral hospital (p<0.05, OR=3.55 (95% CI 1.44-8.71)). The mortality rate among patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 at Indonesia's national referral hospital with obesity was higher than non-obese; 82.7% and 57.4% respectively. The length of stay in patients with obesity was also shorter; 12 days compared to 19 days in non-obese.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>There was an association between obesity with mortality of SARS-CoV-2 patients in a national referral hospital in Indonesia. This study can provide input in the therapeutic management of patients with obesity so as to reduce the poor prognosis.</p>","PeriodicalId":39108,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"17 2","pages":"28-33"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10158955/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9435476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ARIMA MODEL IN PREDICTING OF COVID-19 EPIDEMIC FOR THE SOUTHERN AFRICA REGION.","authors":"Shoko Claris,&nbsp;Njuho Peter","doi":"10.21010/Ajidv17i1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21010/Ajidv17i1.1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Coronavirus pandemic, a serious global public health threat, affects the Southern African countries more than any other country on the continent. The region has become the epicenter of the coronavirus with South Africa accounting for the most cases. To cap the deadly effect caused by the pandemic, we apply a statistical modelling approach to investigate and predict COVID-19 incidence.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using secondary data on the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases per million for Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) member states from March 5, 2020, to July 15, 2021, we model and forecast the spread of coronavirus in the region. We select the best ARIMA model based on the log-likelihood, AIC, and BIC of the fitted models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The ARIMA (11,1,11) model for the complete data set was finally selected among ARIMA models based upon the parameter test and the Box-Ljung test. The ARIMA(11,1,9) was the best candidate for the training set. A 15-day forecast was also made from the model, which shows a perfect fit with the testing set.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The number of new COVID-19 cases per million for the SADC shows a downward trend, but the trend is characterized by peaks from time to time. Tightening up of the preventive measures continuously needs to be adapted in order to eradicate the coronavirus epidemic from the population.</p>","PeriodicalId":39108,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"17 1","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9885024/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9252892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}