Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics最新文献

{"title":"Using Budgeted Cost of Work Performed to Predict Estimates at Completion for Mid-Acquisition Space Programs","authors":"C. Keaton","doi":"10.1080/1941658X.2015.1016585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1941658X.2015.1016585","url":null,"abstract":"Conventional techniques to predict estimates at completion using earned value management data generally underpredict the end costs for space acquisition programs. This research assesses the accuracies of earned value management analysis methods to forecast estimates at completion for on-going space system acquisitions. The identification of more accurate “mid-stream” earned value management analysis methods improves managers’ abilities to assess the reasonableness of cost estimates. This research finds the linear relationship between budgeted cost of work performed and time yields a more accurate earned value management-based prediction for space program estimates at completion than existing methods. This result offers an empirically-supported method for earned value management data that may be useful to cost analysts and managers alike.","PeriodicalId":390877,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics","volume":"239 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122465625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"To Cost an Elephant: An Exploratory Survey on Cost Estimating Practice in the Light of Product-Service-Systems","authors":"E. Settanni, N. E. Thenent, L. Newnes, G. Parry, Y. Goh","doi":"10.1080/1941658X.2015.1016588","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1941658X.2015.1016588","url":null,"abstract":"Businesses now contracting for availability are regarded as part of a paradigm shift away from the familiar ‘product and support’ business model. The main difference being that such businesses eventually commit to provide a service outcome via product-service-system. The research presented in this article investigates how current cost estimating practice relates with the idea of having as the point of focus for the analysis a product-service-system delivering service outcomes, rather than a product. Since the topic is in its infancy, an exploratory survey was designed and circulated via the Internet among practitioners with the aim of looking for initial patterns, ideas, and hypotheses, rather than to confirm existing ones. The picture that seems to emerge is that respondents would not necessarily see the representation and modeling of a product-service-system as being a precondition to estimate the cost of the service it provides. In line with most academic literature, respondents would rather consider the cost of providing a service via product-service-system as conceptually equivalent to the cost of the in-service stage of a durable product. Although not allowing for generalization, this research reveals paths that may be worth exploring further.","PeriodicalId":390877,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127005322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting the Likelihood of Cost Overruns: An Empirical Examination of Major Department of Defense Acquisition Programs","authors":"Alan K. Gideon, James S. Wasek","doi":"10.1080/1941658X.2015.1016587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1941658X.2015.1016587","url":null,"abstract":"This article provides a method for predicting the cost of a major acquisition program five years after program development approval. The authors’ work extends the effort begun by Asher and Maggelet by adjusting for changes in median cost growth factors for each acquisition domain. Procurement average unit costs at program approval and five years afterwards were compared for 101 major United States Department of Defense acquisition programs. Individual program cost growth ratios were gathered into 28 sub-groups, based on the product and year of approval. The authors employed a least squares regression to obtain the equation’s coefficients. In 26 of the 28 groups of data, a comparison of predicted costs to actual costs resulted in very low p-values, leading to the conclusion that the revised formulation is a valid predictor of program cost at the five-year point in product development.","PeriodicalId":390877,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics","volume":"226 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131610672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Parametric Scale-Up Cost Factors for Conventional and Micro-Scale Tools","authors":"D. S. Remer, Kerry M. Chin","doi":"10.1080/1941658X.2015.1020397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1941658X.2015.1020397","url":null,"abstract":"This article estimates cost scale-up factors for micro-scale tools, including high speed steel micro tools, micro thread hand taps, and various types of mesh and wires. Many of these tools initially have a positive scale-up factor where the material costs directly correlate with the cost of the tool; they then transition to a negative scale-up factor at the micro-scale where manufacturing is more difficult and becomes the determining factor for the prices of the products. This article describes the transition from positive to negative scale-up factors, which generally has not been previously reported in the literature. In the future, the negative scale-up factor region of cost estimation could become more important because products, such as electronic hardware, will continue to become smaller in size.","PeriodicalId":390877,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics","volume":"157 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133006867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Assumptions-Based Framework for TRL-Based Cost and Schedule Models","authors":"Bernard El-Khoury, C. Robert Kenley","doi":"10.1080/1941658X.2014.982232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1941658X.2014.982232","url":null,"abstract":"The Technology Readiness Level scale has been used to assess progress and provide a framework for developing technology. Many Technology Readiness Level-based cost and schedule models have been developed to monitor technology maturation, mitigate program risk, characterize transition times, or model schedule and cost risk for individual technologies as well technology systems and portfolios. We present a four-level classification of models based on the often-implicit assumptions they make. For each level, we clarify the assumptions made, review evidence that supports the assumptions, and propose alternative or improved models. Our results include a justification of the recommendations of the US General Accounting Office on Technology Readiness Level, two new methodologies for robust estimation of median transition times and for forecasting transition times using historical data, and a set of recommendations for Technology Readiness Level-based regression models.","PeriodicalId":390877,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126246007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Shoulders of Giants: A Tribute to Prof. Barry W. Boehm","authors":"J. Lane, D. Galorath, R. Valerdi","doi":"10.1080/1941658X.2014.987005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1941658X.2014.987005","url":null,"abstract":"Prof. Barry Boehm’s life work is full of contributions to the software engineering and systems engineering disciplines. This article presents Prof. Barry Boehm’s work in the context of the giants on whose shoulders he stands as well as the people he has mentored to carry on his work. Much of Prof. Boehm’s work described in this article focuses on his key contributions to the software and system development industries, as well as from the perspective of the enduring legacy he has established with his industry affiliates and students.","PeriodicalId":390877,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120900439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"EOV Ed Board","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/1941658x.2014.991244","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1941658x.2014.991244","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":390877,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131621229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Process for the Development and Evaluation of Preliminary Construction Material Quantity Estimation Models Using Backward Elimination Regression and Neural Networks","authors":"Borja García de Soto, B. Adey, D. Fernando","doi":"10.1080/1941658X.2014.984880","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1941658X.2014.984880","url":null,"abstract":"During the early stages of a project, it is beneficial to have an accurate preliminary estimate of its cost. One way to make those estimates is by determining the amount of construction material quantities that are required and then multiplying the estimated construction material quantities by the corresponding unit cost. One advantage of making estimates in this way is that it allows for the segregation of quantities and costs. This way they can be updated separately as new information becomes available. They can also be tracked separately allowing decision makers to make better decisions about the project during its conceptual phase. There are several techniques that can be used to develop estimation models. The most common include regression analysis and artificial intelligence, such as neural networks. Work has been done, however, in a non-standardized way, leaving practitioners without guidance as to how to develop and evaluate models for their specific purposes. This can be seen in particular in the many different types of metrics used for the evaluation of models. The goal of the work presented in this article was to create a process to (1) develop models to be used to prepare preliminary estimates of construction material quantities taking into consideration the available data during the early stages of a project, and (2) evaluate the developed models using the Akaike information criterion. The proposed process is illustrated with an example in which data from 58 storage buildings was used to develop models to estimate the amount of concrete and reinforcement required using backward elimination regression analysis and neural network techniques. The developed models were then evaluated using a second-order correction Akaike information criterion (AICc) to select the most accurate model for each construction material quantity. The proposed process is useful for practitioners in need of developing robust estimation models in a consistent and systematic way, and the AICc metric proved to be effective for selecting the most accurate models from a set.","PeriodicalId":390877,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122294697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of a Product Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Model to Support Engineering Decision-Making in a Multi-Generational Product Development Environment","authors":"Xianming Cai, S. Tyagi","doi":"10.1080/1941658X.2014.982403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1941658X.2014.982403","url":null,"abstract":"The research under product development domain identifies and implements new concepts in design, planning, manufacturing, testing, and service sectors to keep up with the market demands. Many product developments are multi-generational in nature and may require redesigning the product at each generation because an optimized strategy for a single generation may not be the best option in the multi-generation scenarios. With this regard, this article proposes a novel product life-cycle cost estimation model to support engineering decision-making in a multi-generational product development environment. This cost estimation model develops a mathematical formulation which has three major cost constituents: development cost, service cost, and associated risks cost. The risks cost further includes three components coming from technical risk, market risk, and operation risk. The developed mathematical formulation measures the on-going multi-generational product development’s status, addresses its basic needs such as design for future reuse. It also serves as a strategic decision-making tool for successful project management. For the purpose of validating the proposed cost model, an empirical case study of a manufacturing-based product (gas turbine) is illustrated by considering three candidate concepts. This cost estimation is very handy to those design engineers who have a little idea of cost analysis when they design a product. It assists design teams by accurately forecasting and strategically planning a project and by making decisions which are compatible with future generations at a relatively cheaper cost. Thus, this article aims to provide a new direction and approach to maximize the business profit earned from multi-generational products.","PeriodicalId":390877,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131532024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparing Lifecycle Sustainment Strategies in an Electronic Component Obsolescence Environment","authors":"Kenneth D. Underwood, Jeffrey A. Ogden, Matthew Mcconville","doi":"10.1080/1941658X.2014.922906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1941658X.2014.922906","url":null,"abstract":"Rapid advancements in technology and the diminishing lifecycle of electronic systems have complicated the sourcing and sustainment activities of many organizations as suppliers of original components go out of business or refuse to produce obsolete products. This article explores diminishing manufacturing sources and material shortages as well as the obsolescence costs and reliability issues associated with electronic components. Using the current United States Air Force situation as an example, the overall research question asks how obsolescence management can be improved through various sourcing strategies. This article utilizes a simulation model to evaluate equipment demand requirements and sustainment costs for three different approaches: (1) a re-engineering strategy, (2) a lifetime buy strategy, and (3) a programmed redesign strategy. Statistical analysis and long-term forecasted cost comparisons of these three strategies provide a framework to help acquisition, and sustainment managers determine the approach with the lowest total cost of ownership.","PeriodicalId":390877,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics","volume":"93 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124551897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}