Bank of Italy Research Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"Incentivi E Selezione Nel Pubblico Impiego (Incentives and Selection in Public Employment)","authors":"Cristina Giorgiantonio, Tommaso Orlando, Giulia Palumbo, Lucia Rizzica","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2863880","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2863880","url":null,"abstract":"Italian Abstract: L’efficace funzionamento della Pubblica amministrazione dipende dalla sua capacita di attrarre e selezionare risorse qualificate e di motivarne l’impegno. Le politiche di reclutamento e di carriera influiscono sulla composizione del pool di candidati che si sottopongono alle procedure di selezione. Le modalita con cui queste sono condotte determinano quali tra i candidati auto-selezionatisi hanno accesso alla PA e, quindi, l’effettiva distribuzione delle caratteristiche individuali nella forza lavoro. Quest’ultima, a sua volta, definisce il contesto in cui progettare i sistemi incentivali. Questo lavoro fornisce una panoramica delle interazioni tra tali dimensioni e analizza alcune criticita del contesto italiano – tra cui la diffusione di modalita di reclutamento meno selettive e piu precarie, politiche retributive e di carriera che remunerano poco l’istruzione e le competenze, procedure di selezione rigide e orientate all’assunzione di profili generalisti, l’applicazione indifferenziata di sistemi di incentivo a tutta la PA e l’assenza di contestuali interventi di riorganizzazione delle strutture. Si propone, inoltre, un raffronto critico tra le conclusioni emerse e le direttrici dei recenti interventi di riforma del pubblico impiego. \u0000English Abstract: The effectiveness of the Public administration depends on its ability to attract and select skilled individuals and encourage them to exert effort. Recruitment and career policies affect the composition of the pool of applicants who take part in the selection procedures. The process by which these are managed determines who, among the self-selected candidates, accesses public employment and, consequently, the distribution of individual characteristics across the public workforce. Such distribution, in turn, sets the environment in which incentive schemes are designed. This work provides an overview of the interactions among these dimensions and studies some critical aspects of the Italian context: the decreased selectivity and increased instability in recruitment, pay and career policies that insufficiently compensate education and skills, rigid selection procedures slanted towards generalist knowledge, the uniform application of incentive schemes to the entire Public administration without structural rearrangements. Furthermore, this work provides a critical comparison between these considerations and the direction taken by the recent reforms of public employment.","PeriodicalId":389704,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Italy Research Paper Series","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128049825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"La Distribuzione Dei Dipendenti Pubblici in Italia: Ruolo E Funzioni Della Mobilità (The Distribution of Public Employees in Italy: Role and Functions of Mobility)","authors":"Francesco D'Amuri, Cristina Giorgiantonio","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2863909","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2863909","url":null,"abstract":"italianoNumerose analisi documentano, da tempo, l’esistenza di significative eterogeneita nella distribuzione dei dipendenti pubblici in Italia. Un approfondimento quantitativo condotto sui servizi anagrafici dei Comuni italiani ne da conferma, evidenziando l’esistenza di scostamenti significativi dalla relazione media tra input e output nell’erogazione di tali servizi, con dotazioni di personale maggiori nel Centro-Sud e dove il livello di disoccupazione e piu elevato. Sembrano, quindi, sussistere margini per ottenere guadagni di efficienza attraverso una corretta riallocazione dei dipendenti pubblici. Tuttavia, numerosi fattori di carattere istituzionale, tra i quali – in particolare – l’assenza di parametri obiettivi in base ai quali determinare i fabbisogni effettivi di personale delle amministrazioni, l’elevata segmentazione dei comparti contrattuali e le incertezze sul piano della confrontabilita degli inquadramenti professionali, appaiono ostacolare i flussi di mobilita, che risultano estremamente contenuti. EnglishSeveral studies have demonstrated the presence of significant asymmetries in the distribution of public employees in Italy. An econometric analysis of the civil registry services of Italian municipalities confirms this result, indicating the existence of significant deviations from the average ratio between input and output in the delivery of such services: specifically, municipalities with larger staff are located in the Centre-South and in areas where the unemployment level is higher. Therefore, there appears to be considerable room to achieve efficiency gains through an appropriate reallocation of public employees. However, a number of institutional factors, including, in particular, the lack of objective criteria for determining actual staffing needs, the high segmentation of public entities and the uncertainties flowing from different systems for classifying public employees, appear to hinder mobility flows, which are extremely low.","PeriodicalId":389704,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Italy Research Paper Series","volume":"31 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132364249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Productivity Effects of Eco-Innovations Using Data on Eco-Patents","authors":"Giovanni Marin, F. Lotti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2859465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2859465","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the productivity effects of eco-innovations at the firm level using a modified version of the CDM model (Crepon et al., 1998). The peculiar nature of environmental innovations, especially as regards the need of government intervention to create market opportunities, is likely to affect the way they are pursued and their effect on productivity.","PeriodicalId":389704,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Italy Research Paper Series","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129233681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"I Prezzi Delle Abitazioni in Italia, 1927-2012 (House Prices in Italy, 1927-2012)","authors":"Luigi Cannari, G. D’Alessio, G. Vecchi","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2844750","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2844750","url":null,"abstract":"Italian Abstract: In questo lavoro si stima l’andamento dei prezzi delle case e quello dei terreni sottostanti dal 1927 al 2012. Al netto dell’inflazione, nel periodo in esame i prezzi delle case sono piu che triplicati, mentre nelle grandi citta sono quintuplicati. L’aumento risulta largamente superiore a quello dei costi di costruzione, che in termini reali sono poco piu che raddoppiati. Oltre due terzi dell’aumento del prezzo delle case intervenuto tra il 1950 e il 2012 e attribuibile alla variazione del prezzo dei terreni edificabili. L’aumento del rapporto tra ricchezza e PIL registrato in Italia a partire dalla meta del secolo scorso risente, in larga misura, della crescita dei prezzi reali delle abitazioni; sebbene l’aumento dei prezzi possa rendere piu difficile l’acquisto di un’abitazione per coloro che non ne possiedono, questo risultato ridimensiona le preoccupazioni sulle tensioni distributive che possono derivare dalla crescita del rapporto tra la ricchezza e il prodotto.English Abstract: In this paper we evaluate the trend in house prices and residential land prices from 1927 to 2012. In this period real house prices increased more than threefold, while they quintupled in big cities. The increase was much greater than that of the real construction costs, which doubled. More than two-thirds of the increase in house prices that occurred between 1950 and 2012 was attributable to the increase in residential land prices. The increase in the wealth-to-GDP ratio observed in Italy since the middle of the last century was largely due to the rise in real house prices; although increasing house prices can make buying a home more difficult for non-homeowners, our results mitigate the concerns about the distributive tensions that may arise from the growth in the wealth-to-GDP ratio.","PeriodicalId":389704,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Italy Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131276896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Le Rimesse Dei Lavoratori Stranieri in Italia: Una Stima Dei Flussi Invisibili Del 'Canale Informale' (Remittances of Foreign Workers in Italy: An Estimation of Invisible Flows of the ‘Informal Channel’)","authors":"G. Oddo, Maurizio Magnani, Riccardo Settimo, Simonetta Zappa","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2844749","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2844749","url":null,"abstract":"Italian Abstract: Questo lavoro analizza le determinanti delle rimesse in uscita dall’Italia e presenta una metodologia per quantificare la parte di esse che non transita via intermediari ufficiali (operatori money transfer, banche, poste) ma defluisce tramite canali informali, non rilevabili e quindi non inclusi nelle statistiche ufficiali. La presenza di deflussi di denaro invisibili e desumibile dalla relazione positiva e statisticamente significativa fra distanza del paese beneficiario e importo medio pro capite della rimessa inviata, dopo aver controllato per tutte le altre variabili esplicative. Tale correlazione dovrebbe essere nulla o non significativa se il flusso fosse rilevato per intero. Sfruttando tale relazione empirica e avvalendosi dell’elevato dettaglio geografico dei dati raccolti dalla Banca d’Italia, la metodologia perviene a una stima del canale informale collocabile tra il 10 e il 30 per cento del flusso totale e attribuibile al gruppo di paesi piu vicini all’Italia. L’analisi indicherebbe inoltre una riduzione dell’incidenza del canale informale sul totale dei flussi osservati: nell’arco del decennio considerato essa si sarebbe ridotta di circa il 20 per cento.English Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of outgoing remittances from Italy and presents a methodology for quantifying the share of remittances not sent via official intermediaries (money transfer operators, banks, post offices) but transferred through informal channels and hence not measured and not included in official data. The existence of invisible flows can be inferred from the positive and statistically significant empirical relation between distance of the recipient country and average per capita remittance, after controlling for all other relevant explanatory variables. Such a relation should be null or non-significant if flows were observed in their entirety. Exploiting this empirical relation and relying on the detailed geographical breakdown of the data collected by the Bank of Italy, our proposed methodology estimates the informal channel to account for between 10 and 30 per cent of total outflows, mostly directed to countries closer to Italy. Our analysis shows a reduction in the share of informal remittances on total outflows: over the ten-year observation period it has shrunk by about 20 per cent.","PeriodicalId":389704,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Italy Research Paper Series","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131764302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"La Previsione Di Breve Termine Dell'Andamento Dell'Occupazione Sulla Base Dei Dati Amministrativi Su Assunzioni E Cessazioni (Short-Term Employment Forecasts Based on Administrative Data on Hirings and Terminations)","authors":"F. Colonna","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2772504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2772504","url":null,"abstract":"Italian Abstract: Il lavoro discute le discordanze negli andamenti dell'occupazione nel corso del 2015 tra le Comunicazioni obbligatorie raccolte dal Ministero del Lavoro e delle Politiche Sociali e la Rilevazione Continua sulle Forze di lavoro dell'Istat: le prime hanno registrato, fin dal mese di gennaio, una vigorosa crescita delle assunzioni, soprattutto a tempo indeterminato, la seconda ha rilevato una iniziale stabilita dei livelli occupazionali, che hanno iniziato a crescere solo nel secondo trimestre. La divergenza riflette in parte la diversa natura statistica dei dati: un contratto di lavoro avviato, ad esempio, all’inizio del mese di marzo e interamente incluso tra le assunzioni del primo trimestre nei dati amministrativi, ma contribuisce solo per un terzo all’innalzamento dell’occupazione media dello stesso periodo; tale rapporto di lavoro, qualora rimanga in essere, si aggiunge invece per intero al dato medio relativo al secondo trimestre. Sfruttando tale correlazione temporale, la nota propone e stima un semplice modello statistico che spiega le divergenze citate e prevede, nel terzo e quarto trimestre una crescita del numero di lavoratori dipendente dell'1,2 e 1,8 per cento rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2014.English Abstract: This study focuses on the discrepancies in the data on employment trends that have recently emerged between that on hirings and terminations provided by the Ministry of Labour and Social Policies , and workforce survey data, released by Istat . Since January 2015 the former has recorded a substantial increase in hirings, mostly of permanent employees, while according to the latter, employment remained substantially stable in the first months of the year and only started to increase in the second quarter. This is partly explained by the differences in the types of statistics. New jobs starting at the beginning of March, for example, are included among the hirings for the first quarter in the administrative data, but only contribute by one third to the increase in average employment in the period; these contracts, if they continue over time, are not included in the average data until the second quarter. This study proposes to use this temporal correlation to create a simple statistical model that explains the aforementioned discrepancies, and forecasts a year-on-year growth of payroll employees of 1.2 and 1.8 per cent in the third and fourth quarters of this year compared with the same period of 2014.","PeriodicalId":389704,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Italy Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129440954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deconstructing the Gains from Trade: Selection of Industries vs. Reallocation of Workers","authors":"Stefano Bolatto, M. Sbracia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2731692","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2731692","url":null,"abstract":"In a Ricardian model with general distributions of industry efficiencies, the welfare gains from trade can be decomposed into a selection and a reallocation effect. The former is the change in average efficiency due to the selection of industries that survive international competition. The latter is the rise in the weight of exporting industries on total production owing to the reallocation of workers from non-exporting industries. Measuring the two effects is difficult in the general case, but the calculations become much simpler when using Fréchet-distributed efficiencies, providing easily quantifiable model-based measures of the two effects. The selection (reallocation) effect appears to be most significant when welfare gains are small (large).","PeriodicalId":389704,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Italy Research Paper Series","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129214979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Macroeconomic Effects of Low and Falling Inflation at the Zero Lower Bound","authors":"S. Neri, A. Notarpietro","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2731709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2731709","url":null,"abstract":"This paper assesses the macroeconomic consequences of a prolonged period of low and falling inflation when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on short-term nominal interest rates, the private sector is indebted in nominal terms (debt deflation mechanism) and nominal wages are downward rigid. Cost-push shocks that in normal circumstances would reduce inflation and stimulate output have contractionary effects on economic activity, once the ZLB interacts with the debt deflation mechanism. The contractionary effects are larger and more persistent when nominal wages cannot be reduced and when the private sector is highly indebted.","PeriodicalId":389704,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Italy Research Paper Series","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121200882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Gli Effetti Della Riduzione Delle Quotazioni Del Greggio Sulla Spesa Energetica E Sull’Attività Economica (The Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Energy Expenditure and Economic Activity)","authors":"Ivan Faiella, A. Mistretta","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2649926","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2649926","url":null,"abstract":"Italian Abstract: La recente caduta dei corsi petroliferi ridurra i costi energetici del nostro paese. Per la progressiva marginalizzazione del petrolio, sia come fonte energetica sia come benchmark di prezzo, famiglie e imprese si avvantaggeranno di questa riduzione sostanzialmente attraverso il minor costo dei derivati del petrolio; per l’energia elettrica e il gas, gli effetti saranno invece trascurabili. Basandosi su informazioni di origine campionaria e su alcune simulazioni e possibile stimare che gli effetti saranno diversi per famiglie e imprese. Le famiglie si gioverebbero di un risparmio sulla spesa per carburanti pari a 2,1 miliardi di euro annui (80 euro a famiglia) di cui 1,8 destinati a incrementare la spesa per consumi; di queste maggiori risorse non beneficiano quel terzo di famiglie che non spende nulla per benzina o gasolio. Utilizzando alcune recenti ricostruzioni della spesa energetica per le imprese manifatturiere e invece possibile valutare che la diminuzione dei prezzi dei derivati del petrolio porterebbe a una crescita del fatturato di 650 milioni di euro e degli investimenti di circa 27 milioni.English Abstract: The recent drop in oil prices will lower Italy’s energy bill. Due to the progressive marginalization of oil, both as an energy source and as a benchmark for energy prices, households and firms will reap the benefits of this reduction largely through the lower cost of petroleum products; for electricity and gas, the effects will be negligible. Using simulation techniques and survey microdata it can be estimated that the effects will differ for households and firms, with the former expected to benefit from liquid fuel savings amounting to €2.1 billion per year (€80 per family), €1.8 billion of which will be used to increase consumer spending. These additional resources will not reach the one third of households that do not purchase gasoline or diesel. Using some recent estimates of manufacturing firms’ energy costs we also estimate that the decline in the prices of oil products will increase turnover by €650 million and investment expenditure by about €27 million.","PeriodicalId":389704,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Italy Research Paper Series","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122808227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Main Drivers of the Recent Decline in Italy's Non-Construction Investment","authors":"F. Busetti, Claire Giordano, G. Zevi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2649939","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2649939","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the causes of the exceptionally marked fall in non-construction investment in Italy since 2007. Non-financial private services were the main driver of the decline in the aggregate investment rate, but all sectors weighed in negatively; the reallocation of value added away from industry was a further drag on investment. In concordance with survey findings, an aggregate model of investment indicates that even during the recent double recession the most important driver of capital accumulation was demand conditions. The user cost of capital had a substantial negative impact in the acute phases of the sovereign debt crisis, but since 2013 its contribution has been positive, thanks to the ECB’s expansionary monetary policy. The constraints on capital accumulation imposed by tight credit supply conditions were particularly severe in 2009 and 2012. Finally, uncertainty provided a sizeable drag on investment growth not only during the global financial crisis but also in the last two years. The significance of these determinants of investment is confirmed also by a disaggregated model for the thirteen manufacturing branches.","PeriodicalId":389704,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Italy Research Paper Series","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129774749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}