{"title":"Political shocks and efficient investment in electricity markets","authors":"V. Lenzen, M. Lienert, F. Musgens","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2012.6491508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2012.6491508","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a fundamental electricity market model capturing many essential features of investments in electricity markets - fuel price developments, investment and generation costs, demand and dynamic effects such as start-up costs and (pump) storage dispatch. The partial equilibrium model minimizes the total costs of the electricity system ensuring demand coverage. The model optimizes both long-run investment as well as short-run dispatch decisions. From the optimal solution, the optimal future generation technology mix and dispatch can be derived. Furthermore, using the concept of shadow prices in mathematical programming, we calculate electricity price predictions. The model is applied to analyze the effect of recent political shocks in German nuclear energy policy on the electricity market and the power plant portfolio. The effect is quantified using the example of a specific combined cycle gas turbine project. We find a significant impact on the future net revenues.","PeriodicalId":383754,"journal":{"name":"2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market","volume":"125 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132247632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Calibration of a SAS (spike-antispike) SETARX model for electricity prices","authors":"C. Lucheroni","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2012.6254740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2012.6254740","url":null,"abstract":"Calibration of a threshold autoregressive econometric model able to include spikes and antispikes in the modelling of electricity hourly price time series is presented and discussed. The calibration method is tested on synthetic data obtained from the model itself.","PeriodicalId":383754,"journal":{"name":"2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122415718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What's the story with natural gas markets in Europe? Empirical evidence from spot trade data","authors":"A. Neumann, Astrid Cullmann","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2012.6254679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2012.6254679","url":null,"abstract":"Natural gas trading in Europe has changed significantly since first deregulatory measures were taken in the late 1990s. The opening of transport infrastructure to third parties and the separation of transport from other activities along the natural gas value chain have in combination with other regulatory interferences, led to the development of several trading places across Europe. We investigate the current degree of market functioning in Europe based on short term trade in different regions. We test the hypothesis if natural gas markets in Europe exhibit a significant level of integration using the Kalman filtering technique. Our results identify a significant level of integration between twelve price series with varying evolution over time.","PeriodicalId":383754,"journal":{"name":"2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115854676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Impact of reserve market integration on the value of the North Sea offshore grid alternatives","authors":"Y. Gebrekiros, Hossein Farahmand, G. Doorman","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2012.6254701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2012.6254701","url":null,"abstract":"Expected large scale integration of offshore wind power in the North Sea in future scenarios, 2020-2030, contribute to challenges on transmission planning and system operation in the Northern European electricity network. Moreover, the intermittency of the renewable resources makes the operational planning, forecasting, balancing, and control of the system more challenging. In this paper, a comparison is carried out between two reserve procurement market models. This is done by simulating non- and fully-integrated Northern European market using a 2030 scenario in combination with the effect of two different strategies for the development of the North Sea offshore grid: Radial grid and Meshed grid. The day-ahead market is modeled as a common market on an aggregate level for the whole European continent. Reserve procurement is done simultaneously with the clearing of the day-ahead market. For the analysis of day-ahead dispatch, a DC optimal power flow is used. The results show that about EUR 262 million and EUR 326 million per year could be saved as a result of the integration of the Northern European reserve market for the meshed and radial offshore grid topologies respectively.","PeriodicalId":383754,"journal":{"name":"2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market","volume":"365 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115948428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimation of the congestion cost of the Portuguese National Transmission Network — Evolution from 1998 to 2008","authors":"J. Saraiva","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2012.6254776","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2012.6254776","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes the models that were used and the results obtained to estimate the Congestion Cost of the Portuguese National Transmission Network. This network is established at 400 / 220 and 150 kV and the Tariff Code in force is Portugal determines the use of a postage stamp based approach discriminated by voltage level to set the tariffs for the use of the transmission system. However, the value of the congestion cost and its percentage regarding the regulated revenue of the transmission activity set by the Regulatory Agency are good indicators of the quality of the network since they directly reflect problems in the network in terms of congested branches or larger transmission losses. In this sense, we have been computing this indicator since 1998 and this paper reports the conclusions that were recently obtained using data from 2006 and 2008.","PeriodicalId":383754,"journal":{"name":"2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125440145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Detailed modelling of thermal units from a price-taker's perspective","authors":"M. Maenhoudt, Geert Deconinck","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2012.6254741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2012.6254741","url":null,"abstract":"Generation Companies (GenCos) acting as price-takers, schedule their plants according to market price forecasts. As these GenCos do not consider active market price setting as a strategy to increase profits, their performance solely relies on (1) price forecast accuracy and (2) the representation of a plant's operational characteristics. This paper strives at constituting a reference work for thermal plant modelling from a price-taker's perspective. Two main contributions can be distinguished. Firstly it summarizes relevant contributions from literature and merges them into one single, complete formal mixed integer linear problem (MILP) model design. Secondly it adds new features to advance the state-of-the-art and to enhance the applicability of the model in practice. The document is finalised by assessing the model performance by applying it to an exemplary case study.","PeriodicalId":383754,"journal":{"name":"2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126972829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"European Union energy security: The challenges of liberalisation in a risk-prone international environment","authors":"Cédric Clastres, Catherine Locatelli","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2012.6254675","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2012.6254675","url":null,"abstract":"The liberalisation of European energy markets and their integration into a single market are under way. However, the energy environment of the European Union as well as its own internal situation have undergone profound changes. The energy security of member states is therefore an important issue that should be examined. The energy security of member states is therefore an important issue that should be examined. This security concerns gas markets with the problem of long-term contracts between suppliers and consumers and also electricity markets, because of the increasing use of natural gas to generate electricity. Lack of investment is also a problem. Energy market players have to manage security concerns in these two markets in order to supply socially and economically essential commodities. In this article, we examine two main topics. The first is related to the European Union's capacity to solve the problem of investment in transmission and peak power generation by finding internal solutions. The second concerns the upstream structure of the gas market, namely the problem of investing in transnational gas pipelines, and relations with gas suppliers outside the EU.","PeriodicalId":383754,"journal":{"name":"2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124872576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A standard framework to analyze electricity market couplings and system operator coordination","authors":"T. Janssen, Y. Rebours","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2012.6254724","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2012.6254724","url":null,"abstract":"The efficient use of interconnected power system infrastructures is a key to a successful integration. By revisiting existing literature, this work proposes a modular framework to analyze the various mechanisms involved in market couplings and system operator coordination. The framework is built around four modules: (a) determination of the space of possibilities; (b) allocation of this space of possibilities; (c) coordinated congestion alleviation; and (d) necessary agreements. Results are three-fold. First, the definition of the modules highlights that, along existing successful market couplings, several perspectives of improvement exist, such as cooperation between system operators for balancing and data sharing. Furthermore, a key policy choice is how to split the global space of possibilities between various kinds of products (e.g., energy or frequency control) and time horizons (e.g., yearly and daily products). Second, the description of the interactions between modules shows strong interdependencies. In particular, market design choices directly impact transmission system operator's practices. Therefore, the global coherence of the selected mechanisms should be a prime concern. Third, this framework can guide further study and analysis as illustrated with a monitoring board of the electricity market integration process in the Central West European region. Therefore, this framework could be used to strengthen a common understanding of the issues related to market integration, which would support the EU's initiatives aiming at fostering consensus and agreements on a target model.","PeriodicalId":383754,"journal":{"name":"2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121609646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Financing transmission investment and the role of public policy","authors":"K. Neuhoff, R. Boyd","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2012.6254754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2012.6254754","url":null,"abstract":"Electricity transmission infrastructure remains an integral part of Europe delivering on its energy and climate objectives. The European Commission estimates that 140 billion Euros of investment in electricity transmission is required by 2020, implying a significant increase in current volumes of infrastructure investment as typically carried out by incumbent transmission system operators (TSOs). At the same time, investment can also be sourced by new entrants on concession- or merchant-basis. This raises the questions of who will finance, pursue and operate the new grid, what financing strategies exist for both incumbents and new entrants, and what role new entrants have in European electricity infrastructure investment. We use the different financial strategies that TSOs and third party investors can pursue as a framework to discuss the policy instruments that are currently proposed at EU and Member State level to support electricity grid investment, including the recently proposed Infrastructure Package. Particular focus is on the experience with different national regulatory frameworks.","PeriodicalId":383754,"journal":{"name":"2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122092171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Price-based annual generation maintenance scheduling of a thermal producer","authors":"C. Baslis, P. Biskas, A. Bakirtzis","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2012.6254658","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2012.6254658","url":null,"abstract":"The generation maintenance scheduling problem faced by a power producer aims at defining the optimal time intervals for the maintenance of each generating unit. The planning horizon is typically mid-term (year-ahead). In this paper, the annual maintenance scheduling problem of a thermal producer is solved with respect to economic and technical security criteria. The aim is to maximize yearly profit, while simultaneously satisfying the operating constraints of the producer's generating units. Specific constraints regarding unit maintenance are also taken into consideration, such as avoiding the simultaneous planned outage of generating units that belong to the same power station, and maintenance intervals that must be scheduled whenever a specific number of operating hours is completed. The generation maintenance scheduling problem is formulated and solved as a mixed-integer linear programming problem using commercial software (GAMS/CPLEX).","PeriodicalId":383754,"journal":{"name":"2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123587002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}