{"title":"Experimental Measurement of Misperception in Political Beliefs","authors":"Taylor N. Carlson, Seth J. Hill","doi":"10.1017/XPS.2021.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/XPS.2021.2","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recent research suggests widespread misperception about the political views of others. Measuring perceptions often relies on instruments that do not separate uncertainty from inaccuracy. We present new experimental measures of second-order political beliefs. To carefully measure political (mis)perceptions, we have subjects report beliefs as probabilities. To encourage accuracy, we provide micro-incentives for each response. To measure learning, we provide information sequentially about the perception of interest. We illustrate our method by applying it to perceptions of vote choice in the 2016 presidential election. Subjects made inferences about randomly selected American National Election Study (ANES) respondents. Before and after receiving information about the other, subjects reported a probabilistic belief about the other’s vote. We find that perceptions are less biased than in previous work on second-order beliefs. Accuracy increased most with the delivery of party identification and report of a most important problem. We also find evidence of modest egocentric and different-trait bias.","PeriodicalId":37558,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Experimental Political Science","volume":"9 1","pages":"241 - 254"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2021-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/XPS.2021.2","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47247505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Education and Social Capital","authors":"B. Apfeld, E. Coman, J. Gerring, S. Jessee","doi":"10.1017/XPS.2021.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/XPS.2021.6","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Early research suggested that education was a major factor in structuring rates of political participation and social capital. More recent work based on experimental or quasi-experimental evidence offers mixed findings. In this study, we enlist a unique research setting in Romania, where passing the baccalaureate is required for entrance into university, setting up the occasion for a fuzzy RD design. The sample is drawn from a cross section of Romanians whose scores fall just above or below the cutoff. Because the sample is large and the measurement of exam scores are fine-grained, it is plausible to regard the outcome as continuous at the cutoff. Because the number of exam takers is enormous, we are able to focus on a very narrow bandwidth. The assumption of as-if random assignment is, therefore, plausible. We find that university attendance in Romania increases social capital as measured by our composite index, corroborating the main hypothesis.","PeriodicalId":37558,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Experimental Political Science","volume":"9 1","pages":"162 - 188"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2021-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/XPS.2021.6","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47980694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Genes, Ideology, and Sophistication","authors":"Nathan P. Kalmoe, Martin Johnson","doi":"10.1017/XPS.2021.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/XPS.2021.4","url":null,"abstract":"Twin studies function as natural experiments that reveal political ideology’s substantial genetic roots, but how does that comport with research showing a largely nonideological public? This study integrates two important literatures and tests whether political sophistication – itself heritable – provides an “enriched environment” for genetic predispositions to actualize in political attitudes. Estimates from the Minnesota Twin Study show that sociopolitical conservatism is extraordinarily heritable (74%) for the most informed fifth of the public – much more so than population-level results (57%) – but with much lower heritability (29%) for the public’s bottom half. This heterogeneity is clearest in the Wilson–Patterson (W-P) index, with similar patterns for individual index items, an ideological constraint measure, and ideological identification. The results resolve tensions between two key fields by showing that political knowledge facilitates the expression of genetic predispositions in mass politics.","PeriodicalId":37558,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Experimental Political Science","volume":"9 1","pages":"255 - 266"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2021-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/XPS.2021.4","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47052281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Naima Green-Riley, Dominika Kruszewska-Eduardo, Ze Fu
{"title":"Teargas and Selfie Cams: Foreign Protests and Media in the Digital Age","authors":"Naima Green-Riley, Dominika Kruszewska-Eduardo, Ze Fu","doi":"10.1017/XPS.2021.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/XPS.2021.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study explores the impact of repression of foreign protests and the media source reporting the news upon American foreign policy preferences for democracy promotion abroad. We use two survey experiments featuring carefully edited video treatments to show that even short media clips presenting foreign protests as violently repressed increase American support for targeted sanctions against the hostile regime; however, these treatments alone do not inspire respondents to political action. Furthermore, we do not find evidence that mobile treatment magnifies the effects of violence.","PeriodicalId":37558,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Experimental Political Science","volume":"9 1","pages":"203 - 215"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2021-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/XPS.2021.1","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44496822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Benjamin A. Lyons, Christina E. Farhart, Michael P. Hall, J. Kotcher, Matthew Levendusky, Joanne M. Miller, B. Nyhan, K. Raimi, Jason Reifler, Kyle L. Saunders, Rasmus Skytte, Xiaoquan Zhao
{"title":"Self-Affirmation and Identity-Driven Political Behavior","authors":"Benjamin A. Lyons, Christina E. Farhart, Michael P. Hall, J. Kotcher, Matthew Levendusky, Joanne M. Miller, B. Nyhan, K. Raimi, Jason Reifler, Kyle L. Saunders, Rasmus Skytte, Xiaoquan Zhao","doi":"10.1017/XPS.2020.46","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/XPS.2020.46","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Psychological attachment to political parties can bias people’s attitudes, beliefs, and group evaluations. Studies from psychology suggest that self-affirmation theory may ameliorate this problem in the domain of politics on a variety of outcome measures. We report a series of studies conducted by separate research teams that examine whether a self-affirmation intervention affects a variety of outcomes, including political or policy attitudes, factual beliefs, conspiracy beliefs, affective polarization, and evaluations of news sources. The different research teams use a variety of self-affirmation interventions, research designs, and outcomes. Despite these differences, the research teams consistently find that self-affirmation treatments have little effect. These findings suggest considerable caution is warranted for researchers who wish to apply the self-affirmation framework to studies that investigate political attitudes and beliefs. By presenting the “null results” of separate research teams, we hope to spark a discussion about whether and how the self-affirmation paradigm should be applied to political topics.","PeriodicalId":37558,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Experimental Political Science","volume":"9 1","pages":"225 - 240"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2021-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/XPS.2020.46","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48341224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Self-Efficacy and Citizen Engagement in Development: Experimental Evidence from Tanzania","authors":"E. Lieberman, Yang-Yang Zhou","doi":"10.1017/XPS.2020.47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/XPS.2020.47","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recent studies of efforts to increase citizen engagement in local governance through information campaigns report mixed results. We consider whether low levels of self-efficacy beliefs limit engagement, especially among poor citizens in poor countries. Citizens may be caught in an “efficacy trap” which limits their realization of better public goods provision. We describe results from a series of experimental studies conducted with over 2,200 citizens in rural Tanzania, in which we compare the effects of standard information campaigns with Validated Participation (VP), an intervention designed to socially validate citizens’ participation. We implement a staged approach to experimental research, seeking to balance ethical and cost concerns about field experimentation. In our main analyses, we find that VP did not lead to increased levels of self-efficacy or more active citizen behaviors relative to standard informational treatments. Nonetheless, we find some promising evidence for VP in a follow-up qualitative study with teachers. We conclude by discussing lessons from this research and directions for future investigation of the possible role of self-efficacy traps in development.","PeriodicalId":37558,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Experimental Political Science","volume":"9 1","pages":"46 - 63"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2021-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/XPS.2020.47","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46833345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chandler Case, Christopher Eddy, Rahul Hemrajani, Christopher Howell, Daniel Lyons, Yu-Hsien Sung, Elizabeth C. Connors
{"title":"The Effects of Source Cues and Issue Frames During COVID-19","authors":"Chandler Case, Christopher Eddy, Rahul Hemrajani, Christopher Howell, Daniel Lyons, Yu-Hsien Sung, Elizabeth C. Connors","doi":"10.1017/XPS.2021.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/XPS.2021.3","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The health and economic outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic will in part be determined by how effectively experts can communicate information to the public and the degree to which people follow expert recommendation. Using a survey experiment conducted in May 2020 with almost 5,000 respondents, this paper examines the effect of source cues and message frames on perceptions of information credibility in the context of COVID-19. Each health recommendation was framed by expert or nonexpert sources, was fact- or experience-based, and suggested potential gain or loss to test if either the source cue or framing of issues affected responses to the pandemic. We find no evidence that either source cue or message framing influence people’s responses – instead, respondents’ ideological predispositions, media consumption, and age explain much of the variation in survey responses, suggesting that public health messaging may face challenges from growing ideological cleavages in American politics.","PeriodicalId":37558,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Experimental Political Science","volume":"1 1","pages":"1 - 10"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2021-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/XPS.2021.3","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45397429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Guy Grossman, Dorothy Kronick, Matthew Levendusky, M. Meredith
{"title":"The Majoritarian Threat to Liberal Democracy","authors":"Guy Grossman, Dorothy Kronick, Matthew Levendusky, M. Meredith","doi":"10.1017/XPS.2020.44","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/XPS.2020.44","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Incumbents often seek to wield power in ways that are formally legal but informally proscribed. Why do voters endorse these power grabs? Prior literature focuses on polarization. We propose instead that many voters are majoritarian, in that they view popularly elected leaders’ actions as inherently democratic – even when those actions undermine liberal democracy. We find support for this claim in two original survey experiments, arguing that majoritarians’ desire to give wide latitude to elected officials is an important but understudied threat to liberal democracy in the United States.","PeriodicalId":37558,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Experimental Political Science","volume":"9 1","pages":"36 - 45"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2021-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/XPS.2020.44","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45069524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Prosociality in Majority Decisions: A Laboratory Experiment on the Robustness of the Uncovered Set","authors":"Jan Sauermann","doi":"10.1017/XPS.2020.43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/XPS.2020.43","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Social choice theory demonstrates that majority rule is generically indeterminate. However, from an empirical perspective, large and arbitrary policy shifts are rare events in politics. The uncovered set (UCS) is the dominant preference-based explanation for the apparent empirical predictability of majority rule in multiple dimensions. Its underlying logic assumes that voters act strategically, considering the ultimate consequences of their actions. I argue that all empirical applications of the UCS rest on an incomplete behavioral model assuming purely egoistically motivated individuals. Beyond material self-interest, prosocial motivations offer an additional factor to explain the outcomes of majority rule. I test my claim in a series of committee decision-making experiments in which I systematically vary the fairness properties of the policy space while keeping the location of the UCS constant. The experimental results overwhelmingly support the prosociality explanation.","PeriodicalId":37558,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Experimental Political Science","volume":"9 1","pages":"22 - 35"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2021-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/XPS.2020.43","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48845160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mario Luca, Kevin Munger, Jonathan Nagler, Joshua A. Tucker
{"title":"You Won’t Believe Our Results! But They Might: Heterogeneity in Beliefs About the Accuracy of Online Media","authors":"Mario Luca, Kevin Munger, Jonathan Nagler, Joshua A. Tucker","doi":"10.1017/XPS.2020.41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/XPS.2020.41","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract “Clickbait” media has long been espoused as an unfortunate consequence of the rise of digital journalism. But little is known about why readers choose to read clickbait stories. Is it merely curiosity, or might voters think such stories are more likely to provide useful information? We conduct a survey experiment in Italy, where a major political party enthusiastically embraced the esthetics of new media and encouraged their supporters to distrust legacy outlets in favor of online news. We offer respondents a monetary incentive for correct answers to manipulate the relative salience of the motivation for accurate information. This incentive increases differences in the preference for clickbait; older and less educated subjects become even more likely to opt to read a story with a clickbait headline when the incentive to produce a factually correct answer is higher. Our model suggests that a politically relevant subset of the population prefers Clickbait Media because they trust it more.","PeriodicalId":37558,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Experimental Political Science","volume":"9 1","pages":"267 - 277"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2021-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/XPS.2020.41","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43605270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}