Energy Conversion and Management-X最新文献

{"title":"An interpretable and adaptable data-driven model for performance prediction in thermal plants","authors":"G. Prokhorskii ,&nbsp;M. Preißinger ,&nbsp;S. Rudra ,&nbsp;E. Eder","doi":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To safely operate complex industrial systems such as thermal power plants, establishing reliable monitoring tools is paramount for better understanding the underlying processes. Data-driven models are a useful aid for monitoring and control of thermal power plants, but they require an effective feature selection to allow for an accurate, computationally efficient, and interpretable model. In this study, we systematically compared three different modes of feature selection for predicting the live steam flow in a thermal plant: purely expert-based, purely data-driven, and a hybrid combining both. While a fully data-driven approach yields the highest accuracy, a hybrid approach, refined from more than 3000 features, achieves nearly equivalent precision (NMAE <span><math><mo>=</mo></math></span> 1.14%) while using only 44 physical sensor signals, significantly improving the computational efficiency and enabling interpretability. The model is dynamically retrained using a sliding window approach to effectively handle load variations and plant shutdowns, which allows for the real-time tracking of deviations from the expected performance. We further validated our approach on a second thermal plant, achieving an NMAE of 2.49% despite substantial operational differences. By balancing predictive accuracy, interpretability, and transferability across plants, this work provides a practical framework for robust, data-driven monitoring and decision support in complex industrial power systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37131,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management-X","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100950"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for accurate power forecasting for on-grid photovoltaic systems: A case study in Sharjah, UAE","authors":"Tareq Salameh ,&nbsp;Mena Maurice Farag ,&nbsp;Abdul-Kadir Hamid ,&nbsp;Mousa Hussein","doi":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100958","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100958","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses the fundamental challenge of accurately forecasting power generation from photovoltaic (PV) systems, which is crucial for effective grid integration and energy management. The intermittency and variability of solar power due to environmental factors pose significant difficulties in achieving reliable predictions. An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model is proposed for forecasting the performance of a 2.88 kW on-grid PV system in Sharjah, UAE. The model leverages extensive real-time data collected during the peak energy generation season to predict critical variables such as the maximum power point (MPP), voltage, and current. The ANFIS model achieves high prediction accuracy, with a Coefficient of Determination (R²) of 0.9967 for power generation, 0.9076 for voltage generation, and 0.9913 for current generation. These results highlight the model’s robustness in capturing the nonlinear dependencies between environmental factors and PV output. The study compares the ANFIS model with other established machine learning models, including Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest. The ANFIS model outperforms these models in terms of prediction accuracy, demonstrating its superior generalization capabilities. The findings underscore the potential of the ANFIS model for robust forecasting and effective PV performance management, providing a reliable tool for early fault detection and system assessment. Future work will focus on integrating fault detection capabilities and extending model validation across different seasons to ensure a comprehensive investigation of the system dynamics under fluctuating weather conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37131,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management-X","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100958"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decarbonizing the cement industry in Latin America and the Caribbean: A comprehensive review of strategies, barriers, and policies","authors":"Andrés André Camargo-Bertel ,&nbsp;Diego Hincapie ,&nbsp;Victor Pugliese ,&nbsp;Arturo Gonzalez-Quiroga ,&nbsp;Oscar Pupo-Roncallo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Decarbonizing the cement industry is key to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial sector and achieving sustainable development goals in Latin America and the Caribbean. The region faces economic, regulatory, and technical challenges that must be addressed to facilitate this transition. This article analyzes strategies, barriers, and policies to drive the decarbonization of this sector, assessing their applicability and impact. The study employed a two-stage methodology: first, a data analysis phase involving the collection of greenhouse gas emissions data and key performance indicators; second, a comprehensive review of scientific literature, sectoral roadmaps, and national commitments to identify decarbonization strategies, along with their associated costs, barriers, and policies. Four main strategies were identified: material efficiency, energy efficiency, fuel switching, and renewable energy integration, with CO₂ abatement costs ranging from 10 to 45 USD/t CO_2, depending on strategy. Additionally, electrification, industrial symbiosis, and carbon capture involve higher costs, with carbon capture ranging from 60 to 100 USD/t CO_2. The analysis also evidences research and policy development gaps, highlighting the need to establish consistent regulatory frameworks, foster collaboration among countries, and design financial incentives tailored to local conditions. The results show the importance of a collaborative approach that integrates governments, industries, and the academic sector to overcome existing barriers and promote the adoption of clean technologies. These efforts entail updating sectoral roadmaps, boosting intersectoral cooperation, and developing public policies that respond to the realities of the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37131,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management-X","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100956"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Numerical investigation on turbulent flame jet characteristics of ultra-lean H2/air ignited by pre-chamber enrichment strategy","authors":"Wenchao Zhu ,&nbsp;Xuanrui Zhang ,&nbsp;Mingkun Zhang ,&nbsp;Shuo Yin ,&nbsp;Xianrong Wu ,&nbsp;Wuqiang Long ,&nbsp;Xiangyu Meng","doi":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100954","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100954","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pre-chamber enrichment for igniting ultra-lean premixed H₂/air is an effective strategy for achieving ultra-low emission and improved fuel economy. This study employed a three-dimensional numerical simulation based on a constant volume combustion chamber to investigate jet ignition characteristics under varying main and pre-chamber equivalence ratios (ERs), and compared the results with those of the spark ignition (SI) mode. The results showed that with an increase in ER in the main chamber, the SI mode primarily accelerates the late combustion stage, whereas the turbulent jet ignition (TJI) mode focuses on accelerating the early and middle combustion stages. In the TJI mode, when the ER in the main chamber is 0.25 (TJI-M0.25), and the pre-chamber ERs are 0.5 and 0.9, which yields combustion rates comparable to those of SI modes with ERs of 0.4 and 0.5, respectively. Because of the weaker reaction intensity of TJI-M0.25, flame propagation is primarily driven by the rebound effect from the wall, causing the flame to spread downward from the top of the main chamber. In contrast, TJI-M0.35 relies primarily on flame diffusion, leading the flame to spread upward from the bottom of the main chamber. For TJI-M0.25, the fastest combustion rate is achieved at an ER of 1.7 in the pre-chamber, while for TJI-M0.35, it is achieved at an ER of 0.9 in the pre-chamber. The combustion duration difference between the two is 8.8 ms, indicating that the pre-chamber enrichment strategy plays a more significant role in improving combustion performance under ultra-lean conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37131,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management-X","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100954"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancements in photovoltaic technology: A comprehensive review of recent advances and future prospects","authors":"Abdelrahman O. Ali ,&nbsp;Abdelrahman T. Elgohr ,&nbsp;Mostafa H. El-Mahdy ,&nbsp;Hossam M. Zohir ,&nbsp;Ahmed Z. Emam ,&nbsp;Mostafa G. Mostafa ,&nbsp;Muna Al-Razgan ,&nbsp;Hossam M. Kasem ,&nbsp;Mohamed S. Elhadidy","doi":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100952","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100952","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Photovoltaic (PV) technology has become a cornerstone in the global transition to renewable energy. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of recent advancements in PV technology and presents forward-looking insights into future trends. Beginning with a historical overview and the fundamental principles of photovoltaic conversion, the paper traces the evolution of commercial PV cells, such as crystalline silicon and thin-film technologies. Special attention is given to emerging materials, including perovskite, multi-junction, and organic photovoltaic cells, which hold significant promise for boosting solar energy conversion efficiency. The paper also explores cutting-edge innovations in PV device architectures, such as tandem cells, quantum dot cells, bifacial panels, flexible PV, and transparent solar cells, highlighting their potential in diverse applications. Key manufacturing processes and efficiency enhancement techniques, including silicon wafer production and thin-film deposition, are thoroughly examined. The review further explores the integration of PV systems into smart grids and building management systems, supported by real-world case studies. Economic and environmental analyses underscore the pivotal role of PV technology in reducing carbon emissions and fostering sustainable energy solutions. Finally, the review addresses pressing challenges, such as efficiency constraints, sustainability issues, and recycling concerns, while proposing directions for future research aimed at overcoming these hurdles and driving continued innovation in the field.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37131,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management-X","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100952"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143550314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A review of operational factors affecting photovoltaic system performance","authors":"Edgar Hernando Sepúlveda-Oviedo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100942","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100942","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The reduction in manufacturing costs of photovoltaic (PV) systems has driven significant growth in the PV industry. This expansion has shifted the current challenge from constructing new PV systems to maximizing the performance and longevity of installed PV modules. PV performance is influenced by two major categories of factors: environmental and operational. While environmental factors, such as dust and temperature, have been extensively studied, operational factors — critical for optimizing system efficiency — have not received the same level of attention. This study analyzes 102 articles focusing on operational factors such as PV technology, tilt and orientation angles, surface properties, height, and component aging, while also examining their interaction with environmental factors, particularly dust. In addition, the study compiles a set of standardized metrics aimed at quantifying efficiency losses and enabling consistent comparisons across studies. Finally, this review outlines a roadmap identifying key research gaps and provides recommendations for improving PV system performance. This roadmap offers valuable insights for researchers, engineers, and policymakers to better understand and address the operational factors that influence the efficiency and lifespan of PV systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37131,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management-X","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100942"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agricultural tractor electrical propulsion concept","authors":"Tero Lappalainen,&nbsp;Ilya Petrov,&nbsp;Juha Pyrhönen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100935","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100935","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although the limited energy density of energy storages currently slows down the electrification of agricultural tractors, the wide rotation speed range and excellent torque of electric machines are of particular interest in propulsion research and development in the field. Modern tractor propulsion systems must be able to comply with a variety of applications from low-speed high-torque to moderate and high-speed applications. Two distinct operating points may be highlighted. Ploughing or cultivating are typically performed at speed less than 10 km/h, whereas transportation takes place at speeds between 50–60 km/h. In both cases, constant high-power operation is demanded. This differentiates a tractor’s electric drive cycle totally from e.g. a passenger car electric drive load. A concept-level examination into the electrical propulsion suitability for an agricultural tractor’s rear axle is presented. Since there are several options for the type of propulsion motor, a rough pre-selection process is first performed. Selected machine types are then studied against the required pulling performance curve by employing applicable ratios for planetary and final drive gear reduction. Machine efficiencies are analytically calculated at operating points and further validated with 2D efficiency maps for the best candidates. Magnetic circuits are subjected to a mechanical quantification and a corresponding cost structure is calculated with publicly available commodity prices. Finally, a candidate for a prototype building and testing phase is proposed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37131,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management-X","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100935"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143562114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A simple simultaneous envelope/system optimization for energy efficiency improvement in near-zero energy buildings","authors":"Martín Muñoz-Salcedo ,&nbsp;José L. Saquinaula-Brito ,&nbsp;Jhonny Ortíz-Mata ,&nbsp;Fernando Peci-López","doi":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100951","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100951","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study develops a simple yet innovative framework for the simultaneous long-term optimization of building envelope strategies and energy systems in near-zero energy buildings (nZEB). The proposed framework evaluates the energy and economic performance of four envelope strategies—phase change materials (PCM), aerogel insulation, green walls, and awnings—integrated into a distributed generation mix comprising photovoltaic (PV) systems, wind turbines, battery storage, and grid support. The main objective is to analyze the influence of envelope solutions within the distributed generation mix to meet the building’s energy demand. The model is formulated as a mixed-integer disciplined convex program (MIDCP) and solved using the CVXR package in R, minimizing the total cost of envelope and energy systems over a 30-year period. The cost function is based on the CEN EN 15459 standard. Model validation is performed using real experimental data from a building located in Ecuador’s coastal region, characterized by a hot and humid climate. Its robustness is further verified through a sensitivity analysis that explores economic parameter variations and long-term climate change scenarios, combining EnergyPlus simulations with eplusr in R. Results indicate that the awning-based envelope strategy achieves the best performance under current conditions, with energy savings of 12–15 kW/year and a payback period of 8 years. For long-term economic viability, investment cost reductions of 73 %, 60 %, and 71 % are necessary for PCM, aerogel, and green wall solutions, respectively. This integrated optimization model provides a practical decision-making tool for evaluating cost-effectiveness and energy performance under evolving market and climate conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37131,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management-X","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100951"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparative assessment of single axis manual solar PV trackers: A case study for agricultural applications","authors":"Jad Atallah,&nbsp;Pierre Rahme,&nbsp;Jimmy S. Issa","doi":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100927","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100927","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Harnessing solar energy through photovoltaic (PV) systems has become crucial due to the global need for sustainable energy solutions. Agricultural projects are often conducted in remote areas lacking direct access to the power grid. This study evaluates four solar system configurations for irrigation. The first is a fixed-panel system with panels oriented south at an optimized tilt angle. The second and third systems involve manual adjustment, requiring one or two rotations per day to enhance solar tracking. The fourth configuration is a dual-axis tracking system, which continuously tracks the sun in real-time. The case study, conducted over six months (May to October) in northern Lebanon, utilized hourly solar irradiance data from an on-site pyranometer to determine optimal tilt angles for the fixed and manually adjusted systems. Solar irradiation received by each configuration was then calculated and compared. Results show the dual-axis system performed best, capturing 38% more solar energy than the fixed system. Manually adjusted systems also improved efficiency, with one-time daily rotation increasing energy capture by 23% and two-time daily rotation by 28%. Although the dual-axis system achieves maximum performance, manually adjusted systems provide a cost-effective alternative with significant efficiency gains and lower installation and maintenance expenses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37131,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management-X","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100927"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimization of combined electricity generation and cooling load reduction by incorporating roof top photovoltaic module: An approach to energy consumption reduction in a hospital building","authors":"Khaza Shahriar,&nbsp;Md. Hasan Ali,&nbsp;Md.Khaled Mahmud,&nbsp;Mohammad Rezwan Hossain","doi":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100948","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100948","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this era of renewable energy growth, PV systems are being used in buildings extensively for onsite off-grid electricity generation to reduce dependency on grid energy and hence dependency on fossil fuel. Among various PV systems of buildings, the Rooftop PV system is the most common practice. This system has combined the advantage of energy efficient design and use of renewable energy as rooftop PV system has not only the potential of electricity generation but also potential of cooling load reduction acting as passive cooling device by providing shadow on roof. In this study, performance test and optimization of rooftop solar PV system is studied considering three different PV system mountings: south facing single separate string, south facing multiple string attached system and east–west facing system. A 35.5 kWp PV system was designed considering KUET Medical Center building and was analyzed in terms of tilt angle and height of the panel from roof surface considering optimum row spacing. It was found that multiple string attached system offers the best performance in terms of electricity generation, cooling load reduction and CO₂ reduction with an annual cooling load reduction of 16.6%, generation of 65.6 MWh and CO₂ reduction of 32.55 tons. The optimum tilt angle for single-string, multi-string and east–west system was found 24°, 28° and 2°, respectively. In all cases, generation increases with the increase of height from roof surface. The cost analysis suggests that along with other benefits, multi-string attached system has the lowest LCOE of 6.10 BDT/kWh, shortest payback period and highest ROI compared to the other two systems. Greater generation than the electricity load suggests that incorporating PV system can make the studied building net positive energy building and the surplus electricity can be used in other buildings or supplied to grid. The results suggest that locations with higher solar exposure, benefit the from integrated rooftop PV implementation not only reduces dependence on conventional energy sources but also ensures a sustainable and uninterrupted power supply for healthcare facilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37131,"journal":{"name":"Energy Conversion and Management-X","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100948"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}