{"title":"Trading Algorithms Built with Directional Changes","authors":"Han Ao, E. Tsang","doi":"10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759120","url":null,"abstract":"Algorithm trading has become more and more important to financial markets. Most existing algorithms use time series as input. Instead of relying on physical time, Directional Changes (DC) focus on the price reversion events where the reversion reaches a certain magnitude, which is referred to as the threshold. In this paper, we propose two trading algorithms based on DC - TA1 and TA2. TA1 is also based on the Average Overshoot Length scaling law (AOL). An Overshoot refers to the event of price continuing to change in the current direction before the next reversion takes place. The AOL states that on average the Overshoot length is approximately equal to the threshold of DC. We have designed two DC based trading algorithms: TA1 takes advantage of the AOL and T2 takes profit with a more conservative criteria. By testing the algorithms with five stock market indices, the results suggest that in most scenarios, the algorithms are able to generate a positive outcome. The input arguments can be changed in order to change the performance of the algorithms, so TA1 and TA2 could be tailored to trade in different markets.","PeriodicalId":368382,"journal":{"name":"2019 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering & Economics (CIFEr)","volume":"93 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130887047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yu-Fei Lin, Yeong-Luh Ueng, W. Chung, Tzu-Ming Huang
{"title":"Stock Price Range Forecast via a Recurrent Neural Network Based on the Zero-Crossing Rate Approach","authors":"Yu-Fei Lin, Yeong-Luh Ueng, W. Chung, Tzu-Ming Huang","doi":"10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759061","url":null,"abstract":"By knowing the future price range, which is the difference between the closing price and the opening price, we can calculate the long or short positions in advance. This paper presents a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based approach to forecast the price range. Compared to other methods based on machine learning, our method puts greater focus on the characteristics of the stock data, such as the zero-crossing rate (ZCR), which represents the ratio where the sign of the data changes within a time interval. We propose a decision-making method based on an estimate of the ZCR to enhance the ability to predict the stock price range, and apply our method to the Standard & Poors 500 (S&P500) stock index. The results indicate that our method can achieve better outcomes than other methods.","PeriodicalId":368382,"journal":{"name":"2019 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering & Economics (CIFEr)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124135297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yan Wang, Tsz Ho Lee, Run Fang Yu, Yi Xiang, Yang Liu, Zhi Bin Lei, Ka Yin Chau
{"title":"Trading Strategies Evaluation Platform with Extensive Simulations","authors":"Yan Wang, Tsz Ho Lee, Run Fang Yu, Yi Xiang, Yang Liu, Zhi Bin Lei, Ka Yin Chau","doi":"10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759059","url":null,"abstract":"This work has presented a simulation platform to examine trading strategies and assess their profitability and risk exposure. The methodologies consist of evaluating risk measures such as annual return and maximum drawdown and analyzing the features of trading signals through an extensive amount of market data covering various market scenarios. The Heston model is proposed to simulate different markets that represent all possible cases of trends and fluctuations that will possibly occur in the future but may not be discovered in the historical data. The proposed simulation platform serves as an evaluation tool to select trading strategies under different markets.","PeriodicalId":368382,"journal":{"name":"2019 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering & Economics (CIFEr)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117127888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shuixiu Lu, S. Oberst, Guoqiang Zhang, Zongwei Luo
{"title":"Period adding bifurcations in dynamic pricing processes","authors":"Shuixiu Lu, S. Oberst, Guoqiang Zhang, Zongwei Luo","doi":"10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759118","url":null,"abstract":"Price information enables consumers to anticipate a price and to make purchasing decisions based on their price expectations, which are critical for agents with pricing decisions or price regulations. A company with pricing decisions can aim to optimise the short-term or the long-term revenue, each of which leads to different pricing strategies thereby different price expectations. Two key ingredients play important roles in the choosing of the short-term or the long-term optimisation objectives: the maximal revenue and the robustness of the chosen pricing strategy against market volatility. However the robustness is rarely identified in a volatile market. Here, we investigate the robustness of optimal pricing strategies with the short-term or long-term optimisation objectives through the analysis of nonlinear dynamics of price expectations. Bifurcation diagrams and period diagrams are introduced to compare the change in dynamics of the optomal pricing strategies. Our results highlight that period adding bifurcations occur during the dynamic pricing processes studied. These bifurcations would challenge the robustness of an optimal pricing strategy. The consideration of the long-term revenue allows a company to charge a higher price, which in turn increases the revenue. However, the consideration of the short-term revenue can reduce the occurrence of period adding bifurcations, contributing to a robust pricing strategy. For a company, this strategy is a robust guarantee of optimal revenue in a volatile market; for consumers, this strategy avoids rapid changes in price and reduce their dissatisfaction of price variations.","PeriodicalId":368382,"journal":{"name":"2019 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering & Economics (CIFEr)","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133945330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qitao Xie, Day-Yin Tan, Ting Zhu, Qingquan Zhang, Sheng Xiao, Junyu Wang, Beibei Li, Lei Sun, P. Yi
{"title":"Chatbot Application on Cryptocurrency","authors":"Qitao Xie, Day-Yin Tan, Ting Zhu, Qingquan Zhang, Sheng Xiao, Junyu Wang, Beibei Li, Lei Sun, P. Yi","doi":"10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759121","url":null,"abstract":"Many chatbots have been developed that provide a multitude of services through a wide range of methods. A chatbot is a brand-new conversational agent in the highspeed changing technology world. With the advance of Artificial Intelligence and machine learning, chatbots are becoming more and more popular. A chatbot is the extension of human interface mediums such as the phone and social platforms. Similarly, Cryptocurrency is a new extension of digital or virtual currency designed to work as a medium of exchange. In the current digital exchanging world, investors and interested parties are eager to know more information about, and the capabilites of, this new type of currency. One of the potential paths to retrieve the info automatically and quickly is through a chatbot. We explored the open source python library, Chatterbot, to apply Itchat API (a WeChat interface) with the aim of building a robot chatting application, I&C Chat, on the topic of cryptocurrency. First, we collected question and answer pairs datasets from Quora websites. Furthermore, we also created API calls to query the real time quote for the top 25 cryptocurrencies. Then we used the collected data to train our chatbot and implemented a logic adapter to receive the price quote of cryptocurrencies based on the incoming question. The Itchat API method will return the best matched answer to the asking party automatically. The response time of different questions has been investigated. The results imply that this application is quite useful, feasible and beneficial to the digital currency world.","PeriodicalId":368382,"journal":{"name":"2019 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering & Economics (CIFEr)","volume":"97 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127999994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"HMM-based TTS System Framework","authors":"Saly Keo, Soky Kak, Y. Shiga, H. Kato, H. Kawai","doi":"10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759128","url":null,"abstract":"The research focuses on the use of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to build Khmer text-to-speech (TTS) system. Although the system is based on HMM statistic model, language specific functions were newly designed and developed to cope with the orthographical and grammatical nature of Khmer, some of which included word segmentation, grapheme to phoneme conversion, definitions of full context labels and question sets. In total four-thousand phonemically-balanced Khmer sentences were read aloud by an adult male speaker of Khmer, which were in turn served for training a model for Khmer TTS. The system has been incorporated into VoiceTra, a multilingual speech-to-speech translation app that has been developed and maintained by NICT. The app is publicly released for mobile devices and available to download in both App store and Google Play store.","PeriodicalId":368382,"journal":{"name":"2019 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering & Economics (CIFEr)","volume":"129 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123242651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tomoki Ito, K. Tsubouchi, Hiroki Sakaji, Tatsuo Yamashita, K. Izumi
{"title":"Word-level Sentiment Visualizer for Financial Documents","authors":"Tomoki Ito, K. Tsubouchi, Hiroki Sakaji, Tatsuo Yamashita, K. Izumi","doi":"10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759116","url":null,"abstract":"It has a great demand for automatically visualizing word-level sentiment scores in financial documents in the form that even non-experts can briefly understand documents. In this paper, we aim to develop a method for automatically visualizing the original word-level sentiment (i.e., word-level sentiment before considering the contexts in a document) and the contextual word-level sentiment (i.e., word-level sentiment after considering the contexts in a document) of each term in a document. To achieve this aim, we develop a method for assigning both original and contextual word-level sentiment scores to words using the Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) method. The LRP based approach can consider the contextual information in assigning original and contextual sentiments to words, in contrast to the other approaches. Using synthetic and real financial textual datasets, we demonstrated the validity of our LRP based approach. Moreover, we propose two types of novel text-visualization frameworks: local word-level sentiment visualization (LWSV) and global word-level sentiment visualization (GWSV). The LWSV visualizes both original and contextual word-level sentiment of each term in a document. The GWSV visualizes both original and contextual word-level sentiments of documents in concept units. These types of text-visualization should be helpful for understanding financial documents quickly.","PeriodicalId":368382,"journal":{"name":"2019 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering & Economics (CIFEr)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126190971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A novel credit scoring framework for auto loan using an imbalanced-learning-based reject inference","authors":"Yanzhe Kang, Runbang Cui, Jiang Deng, Ning Jia","doi":"10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759110","url":null,"abstract":"Along with the booming consumer credit market, credit scoring has received an increasing concern in auto financial companies. However, the modeling without rejected applicants and the imbalanced distribution of accepted examples affect the predictive performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for credit scoring using an imbalanced-learning-based reject inference. First, we employ an imbalanced learning for the accepted applicant data using Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique for reject inference. Second, we conduct reject inference for rejected applicants based on a graph-based semi-supervised learning algorithm, which is called label propagation. Third, we use tree-based ensemble learning models as base classifiers to train the combined training data. Finally, we give an exact experiment for assessment using data from a Chinese auto loan company. The results indicate that the proposed novel framework performs better than comparative models, which represents a progressive method for auto loan.","PeriodicalId":368382,"journal":{"name":"2019 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering & Economics (CIFEr)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121322721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jason Rhuggenaath, A. Akçay, Yingqian Zhang, U. Kaymak
{"title":"Optimizing reserve prices for publishers in online ad auctions","authors":"Jason Rhuggenaath, A. Akçay, Yingqian Zhang, U. Kaymak","doi":"10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759123","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we consider an online publisher that sells advertisement space and propose a method for learning optimal reserve prices in second-price auctions. We study a limited information setting where the values of the bids are not revealed and no historical information about the values of the bids is available. Our proposed method is based on the principle of Thompson sampling combined with a particle filter to approximate and sample from the posterior distribution. Our method is suitable for non-stationary environments, and we show that, when the distribution of the winning bid suffers from estimation uncertainty, taking the gap between the winning bid and second highest bid into account leads to better decisions for the reserve prices. Experiments using real-life ad auction data show that the proposed method outperforms popular bandit algorithms.","PeriodicalId":368382,"journal":{"name":"2019 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering & Economics (CIFEr)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126846173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Flows of information have changed: Do financial markets remain efficient ?","authors":"David Batista Soares, A. Bretto, Joël Priolon","doi":"10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/CIFEr.2019.8759129","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a dynamic model of a financial market, using some properties of the formalism of quantum physics. The model aims to take into account several aspects of modern financial markets: Trades take place sequentially and prices change very often in a never ending movement; The state of the market evolves incessantly, the stream of financial information is renewed permanently, and each agent influences the price when he sends an order that is aggregated in a central order book (reciprocally the state of the market influences the decisions of agents). We consider that information is fully and freely available. An essential feature of the model is that information is partitioned in two subsets: Information is effective when it can be processed by an algorithm; If it cannot be processed by an algorithm, it is non-effective. We study the conditions on the nature and the structure of information that make it possible for the market to be efficient or at least powerful. A market is efficient (precisely semi-strong efficient) when the non effective information is negligible compared to effective information. A market is a powerful tool when it integrates information better than any independent agent deciding separately; we call that power the computational strength of the market. We also show that even without semi-strong efficiency, during a bubble, there is a period when the market can keep its computational strength.","PeriodicalId":368382,"journal":{"name":"2019 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering & Economics (CIFEr)","volume":"284 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132062346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}