ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption最新文献

{"title":"Classical Political Economy and Secular Stagnation","authors":"Manuel Cruz Luzuriaga, Daniele Tavani","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3941312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3941312","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a model of secular stagnation, income and wealth distribution, and employment in the Classical Political Economy tradition, that can be contrasted with the accounts by Piketty (2014) and Gordon (2015). In these explanations, an exogenous reduction in the growth rate g —because of declining fertility or the exhaustion of path-breaking scientific discoveries—increases the difference with the rate of return to capital r. The capital-income ratio rises, and if the elasticity of substitution is above one, the wage share falls. Both Piketty and Gordon assume full employment at all times. In our explanation, which does not presuppose full employment, the key tension is between profit-driven capital accumulation and wage-driven labor-augmenting technical change: both are defining for Classical Political Economy, and have been emphasized in recent heterodox macro literature. Labor-crushing institutional or technological shocks initially foster capital accumulation –which is profit- driven– and increase wealth inequality. However, the effect on long-run growth is negative, because of the reduced incentives by firms to introduce labor-saving innovation, which is wage-driven. The capital/income ratio must rise in order to restore balanced growth in the long run; and the increase in wealth inequality is permanent. The ultimate effect on long-run employment depends on the strength of the response of labor-augmenting technical change vs. the response of real wage growth to labor market institutions: accordingly, long-run employment can either be wage-led or profit-led. We then test the model using time-series data for the US (1990-2019): the test offers support to the main predictions of our model, and to the employment-population ratio being wage-led.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"97 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126032236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exchange Rate Policy and Heterogeneity in Small Open Economies","authors":"A. Oskolkov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3923784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3923784","url":null,"abstract":"I study the role of exchange rate regimes in shaping the distributional effects of external monetary shocks in a small open economy with two types of heterogeneity: in wealth and exposure to international trade. Under capital mobility, foreign tightening induces a combination of domestic tightening and currency depreciation, affecting consumption through the interest rate and income channels. Exchange rate policy determines their relative strength. Raising the interest rate under peg causes a recession and exacerbates inequality because the collapse in wages disproportionately affects the poor. The non-tradable sector is hit harder, being more sensitive to domestic demand. The consumption gap between tradable and non-tradable sectors opens wider in the left tail since it is driven by the divergence in wages. Letting the currency float boosts incomes through expenditure switching, while better interest rate insulation protects domestic demand, so the impact is more even across sectors and inequality decreases.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"114 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114502130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Marginal Propensities to Consume Before and After the Great Recession","authors":"Yunho Cho, J. Morley, Aarti Singh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3780359","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3780359","url":null,"abstract":"Using a quasi maximum likelihood approach for a semi-structural model, we obtain precise estimates of consumption responses to idiosyncratic income shocks for households grouped by various balance sheet characteristics. Homeowners stratified by higher and lower liquid wealth exhibit the most heterogeneity in marginal propensities to consume out of transitory income shocks. Time-varying estimates before and after the Great Recession support the importance of homeownership status and balance sheet liquidity, with economically and statistically significant increases in transitory consumption responses for homeowners, especially those with lower liquid wealth, associated with the collapse in house prices. We find permanent consumption responses to transitory income shocks are small and stable across time for different households, while consumption insurance against permanent income shocks is higher for homeowners than renters, but is also stable across time. These findings are consistent with theories of consumption that include housing as an illiquid asset. *This paper is a significant revision of an older paper \"Household Balance Sheets and Consumption Responses to Income Shocks\" number 2019-11, created in July, 2019.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130720421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do Personal Taxes Affect Investment Decisions and Stock Returns?","authors":"Alexander P. Kontoghiorghes","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3733894","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3733894","url":null,"abstract":"I study the causal effects of personal investment taxes on stock demand, stock returns, and the dividend policy of companies. I exploit a change in legislation in 2013 which allowed stocks listed on the Alternative Investment Market, a sub-market of the London Stock Exchange, to be held in a capital gains and dividend tax-exempt investment account for the first time. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I find that after the tax cut, stock demand increased, stock returns decreased, and dividends increased. I rationalize my results by introducing a life-cycle model which incorporates two risky assets with varying taxes. My results demonstrate the importance of personal taxes for both investors and companies.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133032069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Feeling Poor, Feeling Rich, or Feeling Middle-Class: An Empirical Investigation","authors":"Maurizio Bussolo, Mathilde Sylvie Maria Lebrand, Iván Torre","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3720334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3720334","url":null,"abstract":"Based on their objective economic situation and comparing with their peers, individuals form perceptions of their economic position in a society. Data from the three waves of the Life in Transition surveys of European countries show that these perceptions systematically deviate from the rankings obtained using consumption levels. People position themselves in the middle ranks in larger numbers than those who are in the middle ranks according to their consumption levels. Correspondingly, many people who objectively are classified in the top, richest, or bottom, poorest, ranks subjectively feel that they are in the middle class. This puzzling \"bunching in the middle\" is the focus of this paper. Explanations are tested and discarded that consider subjective perceptions as misperceptions or the result of other mistakes due to data limitations (such as tail bias). The paper concludes that rather than reflecting a subjective assessment of the distribution of welfare, subjective rankings reveal subjective economic well-being. The paper show that monetary consumption is a strong predictor of subjective economic well-being, but that the latter is influenced by many other factors, including economic security, proxied by employment status or other measures of human capital, such as health and education. These findings have policy relevance, since redistribution measures aiming at simply protecting consumption levels may not be sufficient to restore the economic well-being provided by having full-time secure types of employment.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130276993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"MPCs through COVID: Spending, Saving and Private Transfers","authors":"Hamish Low, Peter Levell, Paul Fisher, Thomas F. Crossley","doi":"10.1920/wp.ifs.2020.3520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1920/wp.ifs.2020.3520","url":null,"abstract":"MPCs were directly elicited from a representative sample of UK adults in July 2020. Reported MPCs are low, around 11% on average. They are higher, but still modest, for individuals in households with high current needs. These low MPCs may be a consequence of the prevailing economic uncertainty. Some respondents report that they would respond to a one-time income payment by transferring more to friends and family, others report they would see a decline in the payments received. Targeting payments to high-MPC individuals could be partly undone. Further, the aggregate MPC out of a stimulus payment need not equal the population-average MPC, even if all individuals receive the same payment.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"83 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114367829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"National Culture and Bank Deposits","authors":"Stella Mourouzidou Damtsa, Andreas Milidonis, K. Stathopoulos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3420069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3420069","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the relation between national culture and bank deposits. Using annual data (1995-2015) for 99 banks that participated in the 2014 stress tests of the European Banking Authority, we document relations between three national cultural traits and bank deposits. The effect of hierarchy and individualism on deposits is stronger (positive and negative, respectively) in domestic banks where culture is more homogeneous compared to global banks. On the other hand, the positive effect of trust on deposits is robust for both domestic and global banks, reinforcing the view that banking is largely based on trust. Results are robust to empirical specifications alleviating endogeneity concerns, thus suggesting a causal effect. Motivated by recent regulatory changes emphasizing the importance of liquidity (deposit) stability, we further analyse the impact of annual bank-level deposit stability on the trust-deposits relation. We show that high deposit volatility is associated with a decrease in the positive effect that trust has on deposit levels.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127662883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unequal we stand: Human Capital and Occupational Choice over the Life cycle","authors":"Teegawende H. Zeida","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3892294","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3892294","url":null,"abstract":"There are large differences in the amount of wealth held by different households in the US within and between age groups. I rationalize these features by building an occupational choice model where individuals endogenously accumulate entrepreneurial human capital via learning-by-doing process. The need to overcome borrowing constraints to start up or to scale up a venture provides incentive for high saving rates for would-be entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial households as compared to paid workers, and during their business spell entrepreneurial households acquire a specific human capital which enhance their future productivity and reduce their turnover rate. Therefore, households end up very unequal with respect to wealth and income within age or between age cohorts. Young individuals experiment higher inequality given that they face stringent entry cost preventing them to become entrepreneurs. Business experience emerges as an important complementary driver for wealth and income dispersion among individuals.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129196657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Issues of Non-Contributing Gap & Management at E.O.B.I: A Case of Largest Pension Fund of Pakistan","authors":"Maheen Nisar, A. Wahab, D. Siddiqui","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3641448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3641448","url":null,"abstract":"The nascent private pension system is faced with several problems, poor records, financial mismanagement and inefficiency, low payouts. An over-centralized organizational structure, in EOBI as well as rigid, often irrelevant, and unevenly enforced rules and mismanagement, resulting in delays in responding to clients, due to employees & employers think that there is no need to registration due to which collection is very low. There is also inadequate cooperation between different, offices. Such problems create problems not only for employees but also for employers and organizational effectiveness. In many private enterprises, labor is hired on a contract basis and stays only for three to four months. With the completion of the assignment, existing workers are laid off and new labor is hired for the next order. This short period of work does not allow the laborers to become eligible for any type of benefit as three months are usually taken as the probation period before a worker can be made permanent. Due to these unfair terms of hiring, social security and EOBI benefits are also evaded. Where an enterprise hires 10 or more workers, it commonly starts portraying itself as several small enterprises with different owners Since the inception privatization of industries, new owners of privatized units have been insisting on laying off all labor and bringing newly hired workers on their own terms., each having 8 or fewer workers. EOBI Institution experiences administrative problems in record keeping and in identifying defaulters and enforcing payment. Because employees don’t want to pay a contribution, they don’t give importance pension after retirement. There is also another problem that most laborers are not aware of all the labor laws and how they can benefit from them. 80% don’t know about EOBI, to whom it provides benefits, and when it provides. Remaining 20% know there is a welfare scheme for Old Age benefits, but they don’t want to register themselves because there are a lot of formalities and it takes time. Improvement in the registration record of employers, employees, contributions would help to make EOBI progressive and actuarial Valuation to be made every three years.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128797348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rising Wealth Inequality: Intergenerational Links, Entrepreneurship, and the Decline in Interest Rate","authors":"A. Imrohoroglu, K. Zhao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3692673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3692673","url":null,"abstract":"The share of wealth held by the top one percent of Americans has increased from about 24% in 1980 to 40% in 2010. This paper examines the potential role played by three factors in accounting for this increase – decline in the corporate tax rates, increase in the income risk, and the decline in the world interest rates. Our model consists of altruistic households who either run a business or work for others. Entrepreneurial households enjoy high returns due to high productivity while worker households' savings earn the bank deposit rate that is determined in a competitive banking sector and equals the rate of return on foreign bonds. We find that entrepreneurship and intergenerational links via altruism are important factors generating a wealth distribution that mimics the data in the 2000s. However, it is the decline in the interest rate that plays a major role in accounting for the increase in the U.S. wealth inequality since the 1980s. In our model, the decline in the interest rate increases wealth inequality as it affects the two types of households differently. Entrepreneurial households benefit from lower financing costs and increase their investments while worker households face lower returns to their savings as the interest rate declines. Other changes such as the changes in taxation and income risk play a less significant role.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123649161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}