{"title":"Moral Hazard versus Liquidity in Household Bankruptcy","authors":"Sasha Indarte","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3378669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3378669","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the role of moral hazard and liquidity in driving household bankruptcy. First, I estimate that increases in potential debt forgiveness have a positive, but small, effect on filing using a regression kink design. Second, exploiting quasi-experimental variation in mortgage payment reductions, I estimate that filing is five times more responsive to cash-on-hand than relief generosity. Using a sufficient statistic, I show the estimates imply large consumption-smoothing benefits of bankruptcy for the marginal filer. Finally, I conclude 83% of the filing response to dischargeable debt comes from liquidity effects rather than a moral hazard response to financial incentives.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125861990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Gao, Allen Hu, Peter Kelly, Cameron Peng, Ning Zhu
{"title":"Exploited by Complexity","authors":"P. Gao, Allen Hu, Peter Kelly, Cameron Peng, Ning Zhu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3554402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3554402","url":null,"abstract":"Due to their complex features, structured financial products can hurt the average investor. Are certain investors particularly vulnerable? Using account-level transaction data of retail structured funds, we show that the rich (sophisticated) benefit from complexity at the expense of the poor (naive). The poor-to-rich wealth transfer that results from trading structured funds is substantially greater than from trading simple, non-structured funds. In an event study, we further confirm that part of this wealth transfer can be directly attributed to investors’ differing responses to complexity. In particular, when a market crash triggers funds into a restructuring process and their prices are expected to shrink by half on a given day, the poor and naive subset of investors fail to respond effectively.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"83 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126983595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Students Cheat More: Comparing the Dishonesty of a Student Sample and a Representative Sample in the Laboratory","authors":"T. Fosgaard","doi":"10.1111/sjoe.12326","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12326","url":null,"abstract":"Unethical behavior has been found in numerous experiments, yet mainly among university students. The use of student participants is potentially problematic for generalizability and the resulting policy recommendations. In this paper, I report on an experiment with potential dishonesty. The experiment was completed by a representative non‐student sample and a student sample. The results show that cheating does exist, but also that students cheat systematically more. This suggests that focusing on students as participants tends to overestimate the magnitude of cheating. I further find that age is an important explanation for this difference in dishonesty. The older the participants are, the less they cheat.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"508 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115888961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Causal Effect of Credit Guarantees for Small‐ and Medium‐Sized Enterprises: Evidence from Italy","authors":"Alessio D'Ignazio, C. Menon","doi":"10.1111/sjoe.12332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12332","url":null,"abstract":"We evaluate the effectiveness of a partial credit guarantee program, implemented in a large Italian region, that aimed to improve the access to credit of small and medium enterprises. Using unique microdata from a broad set of firms, we show that the policy increased the long‐term loans for beneficiary firms, while the total volume of bank loans was unaffected. Furthermore, targeted firms benefited from a substantial decrease in interest rates. However, there is some evidence that firms are more likely to default as a consequence of the treatment. Conversely, the results do not point to any significant effect on investments.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114773859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pensions and Household Savings: Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Europe","authors":"A. d’Addio, M. Roger, Frédérique Savignac","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3483501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3483501","url":null,"abstract":"We address the question of whether the heterogeneity in savings is partly due to differences in pension wealth across individuals and across countries, using a European harmonised wealth survey (HFCS) combined with estimates of pension wealth (OECD). First, we find significant displacement effects of mandatory pension wealth on non-pension financial wealth at the mean, and a statistically significant crowd-out estimate on the probability of owning real estate property. Second, there is heterogeneity in the mean savings offset depending on age, risk attitudes and country. Third, the offset follows different patterns along the non-pension wealth distribution across countries.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128204375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Household Debt and Aging in Japan","authors":"C. Horioka, Yoko Niimi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3489652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3489652","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter analyzes the borrowing behavior of Japanese households compared to the other Group of Seven (G7) countries, and it also evaluates patterns by the age of the household head. In Japan, pre-retirees (age 50–59) do not carry high amounts of debt, and their financial health is satisfactory. By contrast, households with a head age 30–39 have taken on sharply more debt holdings in recent years, due partly to the fact that tax breaks for housing purchase, reforms in the housing loan market since the early 2000s, and expansionary monetary policy enabled Japanese households to purchase housing younger than previously. As a consequence, households have become more vulnerable to rising interest rates over time.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129960259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Economic Depreciation of Real Estate: Cross-Sectional Variations and Their Return Implications","authors":"Jiro Yoshida","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3109760","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3109760","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study analyzes how real estate depreciates in economic value as it ages. The economic depreciation of real estate affects investment decisions by decreasing appreciation returns and increasing income returns. The data show significant cross-sectional variation in depreciation rates for residential and commercial real estate for Japan and residential real estate for the U.S. The depreciation rate is larger if a property is commercial, newer, denser, located in a smaller city, more distant from the central business district, and in Japan. The depreciation rate of structures is approximately 6% for Japanese housing, 10% for Japanese commercial structures, and 1% for the U.S. housing. This study also proposes new methods to correct for survivorship biases. These results serve as essential inputs for the analysis of real estate investment, consumer choice of housing, sustainability, and the macroeconomy.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126757401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Efficient Consolidation of Incentives for Education and Retirement Savings","authors":"Radoslaw Paluszynski, P. Yu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3391049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3391049","url":null,"abstract":"We study optimal tax policies with human capital investment and retirement savings for present-biased agents. Agents are heterogeneous in their innate ability and make risky education investments, which determines their labor productivity. We demonstrate that the optimal distortions vary with education status. In particular, the optimal policy encourages human capital investment with savings incentives. Our implementation uses income-contingent student loans and existing retirement policies, augmented by a new tax instrument that subsidizes retirement savings for college graduates. The instrument mimics the latest policy proposals by allowing employers to offer 401(k) matching contributions proportional to student loans repayment. (JEL G51, H21, H24, I26, J24, J26)","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115580716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Macroeconomic Conditions at Entry and Injury Risk in the Workplace","authors":"R. Leombruni, Tiziano Razzolini, Francesco Serti","doi":"10.1111/sjoe.12285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12285","url":null,"abstract":"Using a unique dataset from Italy, we show that the local unemployment rate at entry has a persistent positive effect on severe and non‐severe workplace injuries of young workers. Entrants during recessions, despite receiving marginally higher entry wages, also experience slower wage growth. The observed pattern in the differences between severe and non‐severe injuries indicates that entrants during recessions might under‐report non‐severe workplace injuries. Our findings suggest that workers entering during recessions are persistently locked into low‐quality jobs and that the mix of hazardous tasks endogenously adjusts to the business cycle.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125573491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Global Wealth Inequality","authors":"G. Zucman","doi":"10.3386/W25462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25462","url":null,"abstract":"This article reviews the recent literature on the dynamics of global wealth inequality. I first reconcile available estimates of wealth inequality in the United States. Both surveys and tax data show that wealth inequality has increased dramatically since the 1980s, with a top 1% wealth share of approximately 40% in 2016 versus 25–30% in the 1980s. Second, I discuss the fast-growing literature on wealth inequality across the world. Evidence points toward a rise in global wealth concentration: For China, Europe, and the United States combined, the top 1% wealth share has increased from 28% in 1980 to 33% today, while the bottom 75% share hovered around 10%. Recent studies, however, may underestimate the level and rise of inequality, as financial globalization makes it increasingly hard to measure wealth at the top. I discuss how new data sources (leaks from financial institutions, tax amnesties, and macroeconomic statistics of tax havens) can be leveraged to better capture the wealth of the rich.","PeriodicalId":363551,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Consumption","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125759332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}