Journal of Hydrology最新文献

{"title":"Effects of root exudates analogues of Robinia pseudoacacia L. on water retention capacity and capillary rise in loess: An experimental study","authors":"Tao Xiao ,&nbsp;Ping Li ,&nbsp;Sai K. Vanapalli ,&nbsp;Zixuan Zheng ,&nbsp;Guanzhou Ren ,&nbsp;Hui Zhai ,&nbsp;Kai Han ,&nbsp;Jiading Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134417","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134417","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Root exudation is one of the key mechanisms by which plant roots modify the soil water retention capacity and capillary rise behavior. However, the specific effects of root exudates on the soil water retention capacity and capillary rise behavior, particularly for fine-grained soils, are not well understood. This hinders the mechanistic understanding and modelling of plant-mediated hydrological processes related to water contamination treatment, shallow groundwater recharge, and the stability analysis of slopes. In this study, we investigated the effects and underlying mechanisms of root exudates of <em>Robinia pseudoacacia</em> L. on the water retention capacity and capillary rise behavior of loess. The soil–water characteristic curve (SWCC), capillary rise rate and water absorption mass, electrical conductivity, zeta potential, contact angle, and water drop penetration time (WDPT) were determined through various tests on loess treated with root exudates at varying concentrations. The root exudates of <em>Robinia pseudoacacia</em> L. were found to increase the adsorbed water content, consequently leading to a decrease in the effective flow space, which contributes to enhancing the water retention capacity of loess. The AEV increased by 88.89 % to 872.22 % due to root exudates. In addition, the average contact angle increased from 18.06° and 114.54° as the root exudate concentration rose from 0.000 g/g to 0.050 g/g, which could be due to the presence of amino acids in root exudates and hyphae produced by microorganisms. The reduced hydraulic radius and the increased water repellency contribute to the decreased capillary rise rate and water absorption mass in loess with root exudates. Furthermore, the application of root exudates increased the soil electrical conductivity at equivalent vertical positions after the capillary rise test, which may be due to the synergistic effects of reduced water content, elevated ion concentration, and enhanced organic matter content or microbial activity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"664 ","pages":"Article 134417"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145322120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effective discharge for sediment transport and its geomorphological significance in karst catchments","authors":"Yiting Hong ,&nbsp;Zhenwei Li ,&nbsp;Haoyang Xin ,&nbsp;Fengjiao Pan ,&nbsp;Hongxia Xie ,&nbsp;Liangxia Duan","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134412","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134412","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a key factor in shaping channel morphology, effective discharge (<em>Q_e</em>) can quantitatively link water discharge to geomorphic processes. However, a better understanding of <em>Q_e</em> estimation and its geomorphic impacts is still challenged by the diversity of values identified for various catchments. To address this issue, the objectives of this study were to calculate <em>Q_e</em> using both analytical and class-based approaches in 8 karst catchments during 2003–2023 based on monthly water discharge and sediment load, and further to evaluate the effect of <em>Q_e</em> on channel adjustment. Results showed that water discharge and sediment load in each catchment exhibited significant seasonal variations, and annual sediment load was generally governed by the period from June to September. The <em>Q_e</em> obtained by two methods differed considerably. The recurrence interval of <em>Q_e</em> ranged from 1.37 to 4.07 and 1.04 to 10.15 years obtained by the analytical and class-based approaches, respectively. The <em>Q_e</em> was also closely related to sediment transport and deposition processes, and thus the channel morphology. Specifically, the proportion of discharge required to transport 50 % of the suspended sediment ranged from 20 % to 67 %, while the proportion of duration required for this transport ranged from 22 % to 69 %. The decreased <em>Q_e</em> could cause channel aggradation, while increased <em>Q_e</em> led to channel incision. This study can provide a new perspective for better understanding the linkage between hydrology and channel morphology, and offer valuable information for effectively controlling sediment delivery in karst catchments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"664 ","pages":"Article 134412"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145322727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of green infrastructure composition and configuration on runoff regulation in watersheds: A global meta-analysis","authors":"Ling Liu ,&nbsp;Zhaofang Chen ,&nbsp;Xinghao Lu ,&nbsp;Yuncai Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134418","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134418","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Green infrastructure is a resilient, nature-based approach to regulating watershed runoff. However, at the global watershed scale, quantitative understanding of how GI composition and configuration influence runoff characteristics—such as generation and concentration processes—remains inconsistent, constraining evidence-based planning for efficient runoff regulation. This study conducted a <em>meta</em>-analysis of 121 peer-reviewed studies to systematically quantify the global effects of green infrastructure composition and configuration on runoff characteristics in watersheds and to identify the sources of heterogeneity in the results. The findings indicated that in terms of green infrastructure composition, shrubland exhibited slightly stronger regulatory effects on runoff characteristics compared with forest land and grassland, and forest land significantly influenced multiple runoff indicators. Regarding green infrastructure configuration, higher patch density significantly increased runoff. Moreover, moderators—including climate, topography, soil and geological conditions, and watershed area—significantly influenced the relationship between the composition and configuration of green infrastructure and runoff characteristics. The study also identified Forest% (proportion of forest land area) thresholds for different climate zones and watershed scales, recommending a minimum of 35 % to ensure watershed ecological security. These findings provide a scientific foundation for optimizing land-use planning and runoff regulation globally.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"664 ","pages":"Article 134418"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145322007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Grain-size distribution and diffusivity of non-uniform sediment in the channel with submerged vegetation","authors":"Liu Yang,&nbsp;Wenxin Huai,&nbsp;Zhonghua Yang,&nbsp;Mengyang Liu,&nbsp;Yidan Ai","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134413","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134413","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The interaction between aquatic vegetation and sediment is critical for river restoration and ecosystem stability, where accurately predicting non-uniform sediment transport (the dominant mode in natural rivers) is crucial for effective management. However, the most existing numerical models struggle to precisely simulate suspended sediment profiles of non-uniform sediment because it is difficult to describe the interaction of per groups. This study improved the settling velocity formula to quantify particle interactions incorporating relative diameter and geometric standard deviation, and then developed an advanced random displacement model (RDM) for suspended sediment profiles in vegetated channels. The model, validated against analytical solutions and experiments, resolves near-bed discrepancies via settling velocity incorporating hiding-hindering effects. Results reveal strong vertical stratification of non-uniform sediment, leading to a shift in suspended sediment gradation with elevations, that is smaller particles dominate at greater heights due to their increasing relative proportion. The non-uniformity coefficient <span><math><mrow><mi>η</mi><mo>=</mo><msup><mfenced><mrow><mrow><msub><mi>D</mi><mi>m</mi></msub><mo>/</mo><msub><mi>D</mi><mi>i</mi></msub></mrow></mrow></mfenced><mrow><mn>1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>4</mn></mrow></msup><msubsup><mi>σ</mi><mi>D</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>8</mn></mrow></msubsup></mrow></math></span> (where <em>D_i</em> represents <em>i</em>th group size, <em>D_m</em> and <span><math><msub><mi>σ</mi><mi>D</mi></msub></math></span> are the mean diameter and the geometric standard deviation of non-uniform sediment, respectively) was introduced to quantify the impact of non-uniform sediment to particles. Results show that the non-uniformity coefficient is related to elevations and grain sizes. The Schmidt number <em>S_c</em>, the ratio of turbulence viscosity to sediment diffusivity, was further studied to clarify sediment diffusion characteristics with the effects of non-uniform sediment and submerged vegetation. The results of statistical significance testing indicate that <em>S_c</em> in non-uniform sediment significantly increases compared to that in uniform sediment, corresponding to a 69% increase in <em>S_c</em>, which results from the stratification of different-size sediment and the dominant role of coarse grains in the near-bed regions. The study elucidates the couple effects of vegetation-induced turbulence and particle-size stratification on sediment transport, providing mechanistic insights to inform adaptive strategies for river restoration and ecosystem stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"664 ","pages":"Article 134413"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145322177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating social media data and machine learning methods for flash flood susceptibility mapping in China","authors":"Yaojie Zhuang ,&nbsp;Tuoshi Gong ,&nbsp;Jian Fang ,&nbsp;Dingtao Shen ,&nbsp;Weiyu Tang ,&nbsp;Sanming Lin ,&nbsp;Xinyi Chen ,&nbsp;Yihan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134397","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134397","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flash floods represent one of the most hazardous natural disasters globally, with China ranking among the nations most severely impacted by such events. Assessment of flash flood susceptibility and risk provides critical information for relevant authorities, and is essential for disaster prevention and mitigation in mountainous regions. This study compiled historical flash flood data from social media platforms, to construct a consistent dataset for the spatiotemporal analysis of flash floods across China. Five machine learning algorithms were employed to model and spatially map flash flood susceptibility nationwide. The results reveal distinct spatiotemporal patterns: between 2012 and 2023, the distribution of flash floods shifted from an initial concentration in central China to progressive northeast and southwest expansion. Temporal analysis indicates a statistically significant upward trend in disaster frequency over the study period. Model validation metrics demonstrated superior predictive performance by XGBoost (Accuracy: 0.931; AUC: 0.993), followed by SVM, RF, NB, and ANN. Key determinants of flash flood susceptibility include road network density, daily maximum precipitation, sand ratio, and average typhoon frequency. Western Sichuan, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and Zhejiang’s Hilly Terrain are found with highest flash flood susceptibility. This study demonstrates the reliability of social media data, offering novel approaches for flash flood risk assessment. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended to implement ecological restoration in western mountainous areas prone to flash floods and establish a portfolio of preventive measures against typhoon-triggered flash floods in the southeastern coastal regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"664 ","pages":"Article 134397"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145322178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of interlayer fissures on runoff characteristics of karst slopes: insights from simulated rainfall experiments","authors":"Hang Yang,&nbsp;Ya Luo,&nbsp;Qiuwen Zhou,&nbsp;Ze Yuan,&nbsp;Chunmao Shi,&nbsp;Yuan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134415","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134415","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Karst slopes are characterized by shallow soil layers and a rapid surface–groundwater hydrological response, leading to complex runoff characteristics. While previous studies have examined surface runoff, soil-epikarst interfacial runoff, and epikarst runoff in karst slopes, they have largely overlooked the effect of lateral dissolution fissures between rock layers (interlayer fissures [ISFs]) on runoff characteristics. In this study, we simulated the number and thickness of ISFs through an indoor controlled experiment and then analyzed the influence of ISFs on karst slope runoff processes. The results indicate that in the absence of ISFs, the vertical dissolution fissure runoff (35 %–52 %) is the primary runoff component. However, as the number of ISFs increases, the interlayer fissure runoff gradually becomes the primary runoff component (20 %–78 %) and the onset of surface runoff is delayed. The presence of ISFs significantly reduces the runoff through vertical dissolution fissures. In addition, the number of ISFs is significantly negatively and positively correlated with the soil-epikarst interfacial runoff and interlayer fissure runoff, respectively (p &lt; 0.05). These findings highlight the critical regulatory role of ISFs in karst slope runoff processes and underscore interlayer fissure runoff as a key component of runoff on karst slopes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"664 ","pages":"Article 134415"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145322115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Loss and recovery of terrestrial carbon sinks induced by 2020 extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley","authors":"Zishan Wang ,&nbsp;Jun Wang ,&nbsp;Hao Zhou ,&nbsp;Qixiang Cai ,&nbsp;Ran Yan ,&nbsp;Hongzhao Wang ,&nbsp;Zhi Huang ,&nbsp;Meirong Wang ,&nbsp;Weimin Ju","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134390","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134390","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme precipitation within the context of global climate change has dramatic impacts on terrestrial carbon sequestration. While extensive research has focused on the adverse impacts of droughts on terrestrial carbon sinks, the effects of extreme precipitation events remain underexplored. Here we investigated the carbon sink dynamics induced by a record-breaking heavy precipitation event over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) in June-July (JJ) 2020, using OCO-2 v10 MIP posterior data and simulations from two terrestrial biosphere models (VEGAS and LPJwsl). Our results show that extreme precipitation in JJ caused a significant decline in net biome productivity (NBP), with reductions of approximately − 16.75 Tg C by OCO-2 v10 MIP, −23.50 Tg C by VEGAS, and − 16.88 Tg C by LPJwsl, predominantly driven by substantial decreases in gross primary production (GPP). Following the cessation of precipitation in August, negative NBP anomalies persisted due to stronger total ecosystem respiration (TER*), but rapid recovery was observed, with recovery rates of 55.40 %, 83.58 %, and 86.85 %, respectively, driven by a resurgence in GPP. Extreme precipitation also triggered significant variations in temperature, soil moisture, surface downward solar radiation (RAD), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), all of which influenced NBP. Attribution analysis revealed reduced RAD as the primary factor behind negative NBP anomalies during JJ, with contributions of approximately − 19.36 Tg C in VEGAS and − 8.54 Tg C in LPJwsl. In August, VEGAS emphasized negative legacy effects from JJ, while LPJwsl pointed to the suppressive role of high temperatures. Furthermore, both models consistently underscored the pivotal role of RAD in carbon sink recovery. Considering the increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation under global warming, our study emphasized the negative effects of extreme precipitation on the terrestrial carbon sequestration, providing the further understanding on interactions of extreme climatic events and terrestrial ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"664 ","pages":"Article 134390"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145322726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A rule-based approach for water governance regime assessment of interstate river basins","authors":"Chee Hui Lai ,&nbsp;Hang Zheng ,&nbsp;Yueyi Liu ,&nbsp;Jianshi Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134409","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134409","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Water governance regimes in many subnational interstate river basins are undergoing transformation to cope with increasing risks of water conflict. Such efforts include modifying existing water governance rules or introducing new rules to change the institutional characteristics of water governance regimes. However, tools that can be used to assess the rules that form different types of water governance regimes structurally and quantitatively remain underdeveloped. Therefore, this study develops a set of rule-based indicators for water governance regime assessment with the rule concepts of the institutional analysis and development framework. Combining the indicators with the content analysis tool of institutional grammar that can parse interstate water agreements/legislation codified in different formats, a rule-based approach for water governance regime assessment in interstate river basins is proposed. This approach uses rules as core analytical elements to evaluate the distribution of water management power and the level of cooperation in water governance systems to determine the types of governance regimes (i.e., polycentric, centralized or fragmented). Both quantitative and qualitative analyses are supported by the number of various rule types that are structurally identified from water agreements/legislation. We apply this approach to assess water governance regimes in four different interstate river basins. The approach can generate deeper insights into their water governance characteristics. For example, the Murray-Darling Basin’s polycentric-dominated governance regime is found to contain the characteristic of centrality, resulting from its centralized decision-making mechanism during the development of the basin plan. This paper thus contributes to advancing tools for water governance analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"664 ","pages":"Article 134409"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145322778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Water footprint variations in major food crops triggered by different drought scenarios from a probabilistic perspective","authors":"Mingzhu Lv ,&nbsp;Lijie Qin ,&nbsp;Yongcai Dang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134410","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134410","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drought is an intermittent disturbance of the water cycle that threatens food security. Understanding the impact of drought on water use in crop production provides valuable insights for effective water resource management. The crop water footprint (WF) captures the type and quantity of water utilization throughout the growth cycle. Previous studies have used mainly deterministic approaches to assess the effects of drought on crop WFs, with less focus on probabilistic methods. This study utilized probabilistic methods, choosing WF and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as the indices, to evaluate the responses of major crop WFs to drought in Northeast China from 2001 to 2021. The results revealed that most crop WFs had a positive correlation with the SPEI during the growing season, and the response timescale of crop WFs to drought was primarily at the 1-month scale. A greater likelihood of deteriorating drought conditions resulted in a lower WF_green. The probabilities of WF_green falling below the 40th percentile reached 68.5 %, 95.9 % and 41.7 % under extreme drought for maize, rice and soybean, respectively. The probability response of WF_total to drought differed across various crops. With increasing drought severity, the probability increased at all higher WF_total statuses for rice and soybean, whereas the probability increased only in the WF_total &gt; WF_80th scenario for maize. This study is projected to offer valuable insights for decision-makers and stakeholders in mitigating the impacts of drought on water resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"664 ","pages":"Article 134410"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145322118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hybrid Gaussian process regression-based harmony assessment in a water–land–energy–food–carbon-emission coupled system","authors":"Chunqing Wang ,&nbsp;Liangliang Zhang ,&nbsp;Dong Liu ,&nbsp;Mo Li ,&nbsp;Muhammad Abrar Faiz ,&nbsp;Tianxiao Li ,&nbsp;Song Cui ,&nbsp;Muhammad Imran Khan","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134408","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134408","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Harmonization between production factors and the external environment is crucial for sustainable agricultural development. However, discussions on the harmony of water<strong>–</strong>land<strong>–</strong>energy<strong>–</strong>food<strong>–</strong>carbon-emission (WLEFC) coupled systems remain limited, resulting in its operational status and constraints being unclear. This study used harmony theory to examine WLEFC systems. We also developed a harmony analysis framework and enhanced its evaluation index system. An improved Gaussian process regression model (AOA-L-BFGS-GPR) combining an arithmetic optimization algorithm with a limited-memory BFGS algorithm was developed. This model evaluated the dynamic development of WLEFC harmony in Heilongjiang Province, China. We identified key challenges and analyzed the trends. The streamlined index system allowed for precise measurements. The AOA-L-BFGS-GPR model demonstrated improved accuracy, stability, and reasonability. From 1994 to 2023, the WLEFC system harmony in Heilongjiang increased from 3.085 to 3.527. The water resource subsystem consistently remained the main obstacle, with its barrier degree remaining above 10%. Later in the period, rural population decline and slow progress in energy conservation became significant hindering factors. Daxing’anling and Heihe experienced severe rural hollowing, with the agricultural population barrier degrees reaching 20.99% and 17.43%, respectively. Meanwhile, northeastern cities faced two challenges: low energy efficiency and high carbon emissions. Scenario analysis showed that the SSP126 pathway provided better potential for green agricultural development than SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. Under the SSP126 pathway, the system harmony was expected to reach 3.923 by 2055. This study offers new insights and methods for analyzing WLEFC systems, supporting environmentally sustainable agriculture.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"664 ","pages":"Article 134408"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145311738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}