Journal of Hydrology最新文献

{"title":"Dynamic soil water stress function improves evapotranspiration estimation in areas with significant vegetation variability","authors":"Yao Lai ,&nbsp;Lu Zhang ,&nbsp;Lei Cheng ,&nbsp;Xiao Wang ,&nbsp;Pan Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133585","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is crucial for understanding water and carbon cycles, and water resource management. Direct ET measurements are expensive and technically challenging. A common indirect estimation method involves multiplying potential evapotranspiration (PET) by a soil water stress function (<em>β</em>). However, a soil water stress function with static parameters (<em>β_S</em>) was generally used in models, neglecting the variation in soil moisture availability under different atmospheric and vegetation conditions. Additionally, although various linear and nonlinear forms of <em>β</em> have been developed, comparisons of their performance in ET estimation using large observational datasets remain limited. In this study, we evaluate ET estimation using three widely used forms of <em>β</em> (linear, exponential and sigmoid) across 135 global eddy covariance sites, and propose a soil water stress function with dynamic parameters (<em>β_D</em>), which adjusts <em>β</em> based on variations in atmospheric demand (PET) and vegetation conditions (leaf area index, LAI). Subsequently, we compare the ET estimates from <em>β_S</em> and <em>β_D</em> with observed ET. Results show that the performance of ET estimation using the exponential function outperforms the linear and sigmoid functions, with mean NSE values of 0.38, 0.25, and 0.34, respectively. Furthermore, the <em>β_D</em> method (mean NSE = 0.58) significantly improves ET estimation accuracy compared to the <em>β_S</em> method (mean NSE = 0.33), particularly for vegetation types such as MF and DBF. Vegetation is the key determinant of the difference between <em>β_D</em> and <em>β_S</em>. Specifically, the <em>β_S</em> method tends to overestimate ET at low intensities and underestimate ET at high intensities, especially in regions with high vegetation variability. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating dynamic characteristics of <em>β</em>, particularly in areas with significant vegetation changes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133585"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparing turbulent bursts dynamics under wind- versus ship-induced waves in Lake Taihu, China","authors":"Anan Guo ,&nbsp;Dong Chen ,&nbsp;Yiping Li ,&nbsp;Qiang Zhong","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Benthic turbulent bursts play a crucial role in sediment resuspension and endogenous pollution in large, shallow lakes. This study aims to compare the dynamics of bursting events under various wind- and ship-induced waves in the near-bed regions of Lake Taihu, China. Utilizing in-situ observations with high-frequency Acoustic Doppler Velocimetry, we revealed several distinct turbulence patterns associated with these two types of disturbances. Under wind effects, the time fractions of bursting events during the survey were relatively low, remaining below 20 %. Quadrant analysis showed that when wind speeds exceeded the threshold for sediment resuspension, i.e., 4 m/s, ejection and sweep events dominated the bursting processes, contributing more to benthic shear stress than inward and outward interactions. In contrast, under shipping conditions, the time fractions of bursting events increased to 21–34 %, with the benthic shear stress predominantly influenced by single-quadrant events, either inward or outward interaction. Moreover, bursting events under shipping exhibited longer residence times and infrequent quadrant transitions in near-bottom regions, suggesting more stable states compared to wind-induced bursts. Spectral analysis revealed − 5/3 energy decay in both wind- and ship-induced spectra, while the spectral densities of <em>u</em>′ are higher than those of <em>w</em>′ under shipping. This study focused on the contrasting dynamics of turbulent bursts driven by wind- and ship-induced waves, providing insights into the remediation of other polluted shallow lakes with heavy navigation traffic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133575"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distinguishing salinization from desiccation induced salinity increases in shallow lakes affected by climate drying and land-use change","authors":"Gavan S. McGrath","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133467","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133467","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global trends of increasing lake salinity stem from numerous mechanisms, including land use and climate change. As salinity varies inversely with water level in shallow lakes, the effects of a drying and warming climate can mimic salinization, the increased storage of dissolved salts. Even detecting trends in shallow lakes can be challenging due to large interannual variability. Here, I develop a new approach, based on a minimum of data, i.e. changing salinity–water level relationships, to identify and quantify salinization and disentangle mechanisms for rising salinity in warming and drying regions. The approach is applied to data from a long-term study of shallow lakes across south-west Australia, experiencing salinization due to land use change, and long-term climate drying and warming. Widespread desiccation or increasing salinity trends were found (58% of lakes), though only 18% of lakes had both trends. It is shown that 27% of the region’s lakes were salinizing and in these the average salt storage almost doubled in 20 years. Salinity trends are not reliable indicators of changing salt storage in shallow lakes. Salinity–water level relationships offer a physical basis with which to interpret changing lake hydrology, salinity and salinization in shallow lakes, even with poorly gauged inflows and outflows and an absence of bathymetry data. The approach gives new means to inform the conservation of shallow lake systems to maintain ecosystem services and aquatic biodiversity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133467"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating sediment connectivity of a small catchment on the Loess Plateau using an appropriate index at an optimal spatial resolution","authors":"Jinfei Hu ,&nbsp;Jingjing Zhang ,&nbsp;Weiguang Li ,&nbsp;Pengfei Li ,&nbsp;Guangju Zhao ,&nbsp;Shugang Li ,&nbsp;Leiqin Wang ,&nbsp;Yuhan Li ,&nbsp;Dou Li ,&nbsp;Min Du","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133588","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133588","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sediment connectivity provides an effective geomorphological and hydrologic tool in understanding the impact of morphological complexity and anthropogenic modification on the spatial transfer of sediment fluxes within a geomorphic system. However, sediment connectivity studies presented numerous challenges in complicated topographic area, such as the hilly-gully loess region of Chinese Loess Plateau, primarily due to the limited knowledge on the appropriate resolution and weighting factor used for deriving connectivity. In this study, the sediment connectivity was evaluated at six airborne LiDAR-derived DEMs (between 0.25 and 5 m pixel sizes) to identify the optimum resolution. Then the performance of Index of Connectivity (IC) with different weighting factors was evaluated based on field connectivity index (FIC) and the response to the anthropogenic activities. Results showed that 1) the linear features and details of pathways and terrace could not be distinguished clearly with the pixel size above 0.75 m. The flow paths were misaligned in locations with rapidly changing topography when the pixel sizes larger than 0.75 m while these paths were extremely complex and inconsistent with field investigation at a resolution of 0.25 m. The 0.5 m pixel size was demonstrated as the proper spatial resolution for the IC calculation in the study catchment. 2) The relationships between FIC and five IC versions at 0.5 m resolution presented significant correlations (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.01), with the revised index of sediment connectivity (RIC) presenting the strongest correlation (R² = 0.51, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.01). All the IC versions could reflect the effect of large-scale engineering disturbance (e.g., terrace, road) on sediment connectivity, whereas the connectivity index based on relative smoothness (IC_RS) and RIC better characterize IC variations under small scale disturbance in complex terrain. 3) The sediment connectivity showed spatial heterogeneity in different times, with the high IC values mainly concentrated in the gully channels with runoff pathway and the gully slope with sparse vegetation and steep slope. This study provided scientific reference for sediment connectivity evaluation in topographically complex area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133588"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Novel Kolmogorov-Arnold network architectures for accurate flood susceptibility mapping: a comparative study","authors":"Seyd Teymoor Seydi ,&nbsp;Mojtaba Sadegh","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133553","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate mapping of flood susceptibility (FSM) is of paramount importance for the effective management and mitigation of this deadly disaster. This study introduces a novel framework based on the Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) for enhanced FSM, which was applied to two basins in Iran: the Karun and Gorganrud basins. Three KAN-based models were implemented and evaluated. The performance of the Boubaker-KAN, Cheby-KAN, and VietaPell-KAN models was evaluated in comparison to state-of-the-art machine learning techniques, including Random Forest (RF), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost). All models were trained using a set of conditioning factors related to flooding, including topographical indicators, land cover data, and soil characteristics. The delineation of flood-prone areas was conducted through the identification of historical inundation incidents, as observed in satellite imagery and documented in official reports. The results demonstrate that KAN-based models exhibit superior performance, with an average overall accuracy of 92.5 % across the two basins. Furthermore, the KAN models achieved an average F1 score of 93.90 % and an average Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) of 0.866, demonstrating superior performance in these key metrics in comparison to other techniques. The superior performance of KAN-based models can be attributed to their capacity to capture intricate, non-linear relationships between flood conditioning factors and flood occurrences, as per the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem. A visual comparison of the flood susceptibility maps demonstrates that KAN models effectively capture the subtle topographical and hydrological features that contribute to localized flooding. This research contributes to the advancement of FSM techniques, offering improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. Future work should focus on incorporating additional dynamic variables and exploring hybrid approaches combining KAN architectures with ensemble methods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133553"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hysteresis and adaptation time scales of salt intrusion and the Turbidity Maximum Zone in a tidal estuary","authors":"Carolina Consuegra ,&nbsp;Marius Becker ,&nbsp;Frank Kösters ,&nbsp;Christian Winter","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Salt intrusion and sediment dynamics affect the water quality of estuaries. Multiple factors, such as river discharge, tidal forcing and surge events influence salt intrusion and the location of the Turbidity Maximum Zone (TMZ). As these drivers vary frequently, estuarine systems are in a permanent state of adaptation. This study quantifies the spatio-temporal variability in response to the change in drivers for a typical tidal, funnel-shaped estuary. Using 7 years of monitoring data of discharge, tides, salinity and turbidity, we determined the dynamics of the along-channel displacement of the salt intrusion and TMZ location along the Weser estuary (North Sea, Germany). Both parameters exhibit large lags in their response to changes in discharge. Fast changes such as discharge peaks (Q &gt; 450 m³/s), induce a substantial hysteresis in salt intrusion and TMZ location. The average temporal lag for the system to adapt to a discharge peak is 16 tidal cycles. The influence of tidal range depends on the season (high or low discharge) and the corresponding lag is comparatively small (on average, 3 tidal cycles). Moreover, surge events introduce substantial and random variations of the salt intrusion and TMZ location, without lag. The largest along-channel displacement (18.5 km) is due to discharge, which is 4 times higher than the displacement induced by surge. This study enhances our understanding of the response and adaptation times of estuaries to driver variability and provides insights into how discharge, spring-neap variability of the tidal range, and surge events collectively control salt intrusion and TMZ location.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133564"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A review on implementing sustainable drainage systems in sloping environments: understanding, approaches, and opportunities","authors":"Boji Chen,&nbsp;Ting Fong May Chui","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133577","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133577","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) have been widely adopted to address urban flooding, water pollution, and biodiversity degradation. However, implementing SuDS in sloping environments presents unique challenges due to complex hydrological processes and geotechnical factors. This paper comprehensively reviews the current understanding, approaches, opportunities, and future research directions for implementing SuDS in these challenging environments. The review presents the understanding of SuDS in sloping environments, covering various slope types in urban settings, potential positions for SuDS implementation, and mutual impact between SuDS and slopes. Five key challenges are identified: poor runoff collection, reduced retention capacity, diminished storage space, possible structural damage, and potential slope instability. Then, this paper examines different evaluation approaches, including field monitoring, laboratory experiments, geospatial analysis, and numerical simulation, discussing their respective strengths and limitations. Current solutions are summarized and categorized into individual design and spatial distribution. Specifically, the individual designs comprise the use of retentive grading, elongated SuDS, stepped SuDS, level spreaders and gravel verges while spatial distribution applies strategies of on-contour SuDS, greenbelt-linked SuDS and setback between SuDS and offsite slopes. Potential solutions are theoretically proposed: SuDS integrated with conventional drainage, deep-infiltration SuDS and smart SuDS. These solutions highlight opportunities for SuDS in sloping environments. Future research directions should focus on improving understanding of whole hydrological processes, from runoff generation to routing, treatment by SuDS, and subsoil movement within slopes, and the impact on slope stability. Additionally, current and potential solutions need quantification and verification for broader applicability. Finally, comprehensive cost-effectiveness evaluations of SuDS in sloping environments are essential for practical implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133577"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enrichment effects of vegetation patches on soil water content depend on precipitation and vegetation conditions: A global meta-analysis","authors":"Hui-Hua Xu ,&nbsp;Zhi-Yun Jiang ,&nbsp;Jing-Yi Ding ,&nbsp;Xue Guo ,&nbsp;Yi-Jia Wang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Yan Li ,&nbsp;Jia-Lan Feng ,&nbsp;Yu-Yao Ou","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133590","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133590","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vegetation patch is a widely distributed pattern in global water-limited regions and is found to affect crucial soil hydrological properties, especially soil water content (SWC) that supports plant survival. However, the effects of vegetation patches on soil water content highly vary with site conditions. Under what condition can the positive effect of vegetation patch be maximized remains unknown, inhibiting our ability to restore ecological stability in water-limited regions. Accordingly, we presented a <em>meta</em>-analysis of global vegetation in this research by compiling 3012 observations from 318 sites (in total 303 published studies) during 1984–2024 and calculating the weighted response ratio (RR₊₊) and its changes in different precipitation and biological conditions. We found that overall vegetation patches enhanced SWC (with the RR₊₊ reaching 0.103) and also improved water-related properties (e.g., runoff coefficient, sediment content, hydraulic conductivity, bulk density, and soil porosity). The effects of vegetation patch largely varied with plant lifeforms and sizes, with patches dominated by grasses, shrubs, deciduous species, or C3/C4 plants led to an increase in SWC, while decreased effects were found in trees or evergreen species patches. The positive effects of vegetation patches on SWC were more prominent in larger than in smaller patches. Moreover, the positive effect of vegetation patches on SWC weakened with increasing precipitation. The response ratio (RR) values decreased by 52.19 % when mean annual precipitation (MAP) increased from 0 to 300 mm, and it even turned negative in more mesic areas (MAP &gt; 300 mm). In addition, although SWC was found to increase with the soil depth, it showed a decrease when MAP was around 500–600 mm. Our findings highlighted that the enrichment effect of vegetation patches on soil moisture was limited by the increasing precipitation condition and larger shrub or grass patches could maximize soil water condition, improving the prediction of ecosystem responses to precipitation shifts under climate change globally.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133590"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-scale analysis of contaminant transport in the ice-covered channel flows with bed absorption","authors":"Feifei Wang ,&nbsp;Heng Li ,&nbsp;Huaxiang Li ,&nbsp;Bin Sun ,&nbsp;Sifan Zhao ,&nbsp;Zhiwei Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133572","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133572","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rivers in high-latitude regions frequently undergo a process of freezing during the winter, forming an ice cover on the water surface that effectively cuts off the exchange between the water body and the atmosphere. This results in a notable reduction in dissolved oxygen levels within the water body and hence makes it challenging for contaminants to volatilize and degrade. As a thorough understanding of contaminant transport in ice-covered channels is essential for managing water pollution in cold regions, this study concentrates on the issue of contaminant dispersion in such a channel with bed absorption under laminar flow conditions. An analytical solution for the temporal and spatial evolutions of concentration distribution is deduced here by solving the two-dimensional advection–diffusion equation using the multi-scale perturbation method. The satisfactory agreement between the analytical results of mean concentration distributions and the corresponding numerical results obtained from the finite difference method validates the reliability of the analytical solution. Subsequently, the spatiotemporal evolution of contaminants in ice-covered channels is evaluated by applying the validated analytical solution under the coupled effects of advective and molecular diffusion. Results indicate that the enhancement of the advective effect facilitates the longitudinal diffusion of contaminants and thus the corresponding peak concentrations are reduced. The vertical dispersion of contaminants exhibits a pronounced nonuniform distribution and the time scale required to reach the uniform distribution is closely related to the cross-sectional position and the absorption intensity. The maximum vertical concentration variation rate in ice-covered channels consistently occurs at the upstream cross-section as the time scale increases, which is a significant contrast to the contaminant dispersion observed in open-channel flows. This study can provide some reference for assessing the peak concentration locations and durations of contaminant clouds in ice-covered channels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133572"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144147451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of flash drought recovery rates: the role of precipitation patterns and surface heterogeneity","authors":"Zixuan Qi ,&nbsp;Yuchen Ye ,&nbsp;Lian Sun ,&nbsp;Chaoxia Yuan ,&nbsp;Yanpeng Cai ,&nbsp;Yulei Xie ,&nbsp;Guanhui Cheng ,&nbsp;Pingping Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133574","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133574","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Predicting the onset of flash droughts remains a formidable challenge for current drought early warning systems. However, understanding the timing and mechanisms of flash drought recovery is equally critical for effective flash drought risk management. Despite this, limited research has focused on the recovery phase across different stages of the flash drought full life cycle. This study integrates multi-source data to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics, key drivers, and underlying mechanisms of flash drought recovery processes across nine agroclimatic regions in China from 1980 to 2020. Integrating Geodetector and interpretable machine learning (XGBoost-SHAP), we quantified the relative contributions of precipitation patterns and land surface characteristics to flash drought recovery rates (FDRR). Additionally, a composite analysis was conducted to clarify the role of extreme precipitation events and assess the risk of cascading dry-to-wet transitions associated with flash drought recovery. Results indicate that after the year 2000, flash drought events with both high onset and high recovery rates have significantly increased in China’s monsoon region. Extreme precipitation events drive flash drought recovery in only 0–20 % of cases across most regions, except in the central and western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where the probability reaches 40–60 %, highlighting a high-risk zone for cascading dry-to-wet transitions. Encouragingly, XGBoost-based simulations of FDRR in this region achieved high accuracy (R² = 0.912). SHAP-based interpretation and interaction detection confirmed that precipitation characteristics and land surface conditions are the primary determinants of FDRR. Key factors include cumulative precipitation, maximum precipitation, drought severity, terrain slope, and soil clay content. In China’s flash drought hotspot, the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain, the primary moisture source during flash drought recovery predominantly stems from large-scale circulation systems rather than local evapotranspiration or moisture recycling. Our findings highlight the feasibility of developing flash drought recovery forecasting models, which could improve risk management strategies for meteorological and agricultural agencies. If predicting flash drought onset remains challenging, accurately forecasting recovery may be crucial in mitigating flash drought risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"661 ","pages":"Article 133574"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}