Journal of Environmental Management最新文献

{"title":"Magnetite nanocomposites for pharmaceutical-contaminated water and wastewater: An evidence-maturity framework for design, treatment, recovery, and translation.","authors":"John O Anyanwu, Kanayo L Oguzie, Obinna I Anyanwu, Emeka E Oguzie","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131220","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Pharmaceutical residues in aquatic systems present a complex treatment challenge because treatment performance depends on contaminant speciation, water-matrix composition, operating conditions, and material properties. Magnetite (Fe₃O₄)-based nanocomposites are attractive because they can combine adsorption or Fe²⁺/Fe³⁺-dependent redox activity with magnetic handling. This critical structured review evaluates Fe₃O₄-based pharmaceutical treatment through an evidence-maturity lens rather than by ranking maximum removal percentages. Primary treatment studies are distinguished from contextual literature on synthesis, phase chemistry, toxicity, lifecycle assessment, techno-economics, and incumbent technologies, and quantitative examples are classified by evidentiary origin. Across the literature examined, hybridization can improve adsorption or oxidative treatment and magnetic separation can facilitate recovery, but the strength of the resulting claim depends on whether studies also establish mechanism, mineralization or toxicity change, material fate, realistic-matrix robustness, repeated operation, and process-level comparability. Recent pilot-scale examples indicate that translation is beginning, but complete pharmaceutical-specific evidence packages that integrate realistic operation, material fate, residual management, and treatment-normalized cost or lifecycle comparison remain scarce. We therefore introduce a five-level evidence-maturity framework that progresses from defined laboratory performance through mechanistic validation, treatment-quality and material-fate assessment, realistic-matrix/repeated-flow validation, and treatment-normalized comparison with incumbent processes. The framework is an author-proposed organizing rubric, not a validated technology-readiness scale, and is intended to make evidence gaps explicit pending external validation. High parent-compound removal alone is insufficient evidence of practical treatment value.</p>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"419 ","pages":"131220"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Metal enrichment and downstream concentration gradients in an agricultural ditch draining a long-term fertilisation experiment.","authors":"Yuchen Li, Juanhua Li, Xiaoxin Liu, Yue Qi","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131211","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Agricultural sediment surveys seldom quantify the downstream extent of metal enrichment. We measured Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in 24 surface sediment samples below the Palace Leas long-term fertilisation experiment at Cockle Park, UK. Eighteen samples formed a 452.5 m ditch transect, with three samples each from the receiving stream and an adjacent diffuse runoff line. Concentrations declined downstream, with the strongest enrichment near the ditch head. Metal-specific segmented-fit breakpoints were 104 m for Cd (5-95% resampling interval, 78-129 m), 159 m for Co (129-185 m) and 159 m for Cu (104-236 m). These do not establish a shared boundary. Cr and Ni breakpoint positions were poorly constrained. The first 150 m contained 66.3-96.7% of the distance-integrated excess concentration for six metals, an index of profile shape rather than stored metal mass. Cd contributed 73.9% of a partial seven-metal risk index, while Ni exceeded its freshwater probable effect level in one third of samples. As and Hg were not measured, so the screening may underestimate multi-element hazard and cannot establish the overall priority contaminant. Missing grain-size and organic-carbon measurements leave sediment sorting and carrier mixing unresolved. Uniform concentration scaling preserves within-metal spatial contrasts, but absolute concentrations and screening classifications remain conditional on unmeasured digestion recovery. Detection-limit-aware uncertainty was therefore used for risk-score scenarios. The upper reach is a candidate for follow-up monitoring; a 150 m mitigation zone requires validation with sediment-flux and repeated sampling data.</p>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"419 ","pages":"131211"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A machine learning approach to understanding freshwater salinization dynamics and winter season controls in the Northeast United States.","authors":"Meghna Rajbhandari, Gbenga Daniels, Amanda Carneiro Marques","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131304","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Freshwater salinization is an increasing concern in colder regions where road-salt application, watershed development, hydroclimatic factors, and anthropogenic activities influence river salinity. This study evaluated winter freshwater salinization across six rivers in New York and New Jersey. We hypothesized that winter salinity reflects both shared watershed-scale relationships and site-specific dynamics, with predictor importance varying among watersheds with contrasting hydroclimatic, land-use, and anthropogenic characteristics. The study included 2570 daily observations across three winter seasons from November 2021 to March 2024. Spatial patterns were assessed through principal component analysis (PCA) and geospatial watershed characterization. Multiple linear regression (MLR), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were applied in pooled and site-specific models using snowfall-lag predictors, while SHAP explained the predictor importance. PCA identified climatic-salinity and hydrologic-flow gradients. The pooled XGBoost model achieved a strong test performance (R² = 0.79), with developed land identified as a dominant predictor. Site-specific ensemble models generally outperformed MLR, with XGBoost reaching R² = 0.81 at Cattaraugus Creek, a highly forested watershed. Larger drainage-area stations showed limited predictive skill, while highly urbanized watersheds performed moderately. Dominant predictors differed among stations and included discharge, pH, and turbidity. In the Bronx River case study, RF achieved R² of 0.56, with two-day lagged road-salt application as the most influential predictor, highlighting road-salt monitoring needs in highly urbanized watersheds. Overall, the findings advance understanding of winter stream salinity dynamics across diverse watersheds and emphasize the need for road-salt monitoring and management.</p>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"419 ","pages":"131304"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-target machine learning prediction of constructed wetland effluent quality with model interpretation and experimental validation.","authors":"Zikui He, Songqi Liu, Dapeng Li, Jiali Li, Jingqiu Sun, Sujie Shan, Yao Xu, Yixuan Ma, Jun Hou, Lingzhan Miao, Shang Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131290","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In the design and operation of constructed wetlands (CWs), carbon and nitrogen pollutant levels, such as chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia nitrogen (NH₄⁺-N), and nitrate nitrogen (NO₃^--N), are key indicators for assessing effluent quality and controlling eutrophication of receiving water bodies. Accurately predicting the effluent concentrations and identifying the key regulatory factors are of great significance for enabling process optimization and precise system control. However, traditional CWs prediction methods often fail to effectively capture the complex nonlinear relationships in these pollutant removal processes, resulting in poor prediction results and a lack of interpretability analysis of feature contributions. Therefore, this study constructed an integrated machine learning and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework to simultaneously predict the effluent concentrations of COD, NH₄⁺-N, and NO₃^--N, as well as quantitatively analyze the contribution of each input feature. Additionally, independent experiments were conducted to further evaluate the applicability and stability of the developed model. By comparing Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), it was found that GBDT performed best in multi-target predictions, with testing set R² values above 0.87. SHAP analysis further indicated that influent COD, NH₄⁺-N, and aeration rate are the dominant factors affecting effluent quality, while wetland structure parameters have relatively limited influence. Moreover, independent experiments further demonstrated the applicability and stability of the developed model under independently obtained experimental conditions, with R² values above 0.75. The findings of this study can be used to identify factors affecting the treatment performance of CWs and to develop design guidelines for improving treatment processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"419 ","pages":"131290"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The driving role of proteins in enhancing lactate and propionate production during food waste fermentation: metabolic constraints and kinetic modeling.","authors":"D Montecchio, S Angelini, C Braguglia, D De Cata, A Gianico, S Grandinetti, V Piemonte, M Sbicego, A Gallipoli","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131291","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131291","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study aimed to quantify the fraction of lactate, derived from the fermentation of Food Waste (FW) attributable to proteins. Infact, recent studies based on cellular resource allocation suggest that proteins can promote the growth of lactic acid bacteria and enhance lactate production. The experiments were conducted in a chemostat, at a HRT of 20 h and a pH = 5 and 5.5, using a synthetic substrate composed of glucose and albumin in a 4:1 COD ratio, mimicking household FW composition. A pure glucose solution was used for comparison. Although lactate was detected at low concentrations, the glucose-albumin substrate produced a considerable amount of propionate, even when albumin was not consumed, in contrast to the pure glucose solution. It was hypothesized that most propionate was generated via the acrylate pathway, rather than glycolysis, thus confirming the significance of the lactate metabolic pathway. A mathematical model based on the variable stoichiometry approach was adopted as a tool to investigate this hypothesis. The model accounted for the metabolic constraint imposed by the conservation of electron carriers (NADH) throughout the fermentation process. The metabolic constraint made it possible to estimate that propionate production occurred with high probability via the acrylate pathway, thereby revealing that proteins were crucial in driving the metabolic shift of glucose fermentation toward lactate; model calibration estimated that lactate accounted for 35 - 65 % of the total electron flux. Furthermore, lactate was separately supplemented to the substrate in additional experiments, inducing a metabolic shift from acrylate pathway to chain elongation.</p>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"419 ","pages":"131291"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Balancing ecological benefits and feasibility in large-scale restoration planning: A multi-objective optimization decision-support framework.","authors":"Matías Moreno-Faguett, Jessica Castillo-Mandujano, José Salgado-Rojas, María José Martinez-Harms, Bárbara Larraín-Barrios, Micaela Poutay-Broussaingaray, Eduardo Fuentes-Lillo, Patricio Pliscoff, Pablo Ramírez de Arellano, Cecilia Smith-Ramírez, Olga Barbosa, Aníbal Pauchard, Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo, Virgilio Hermoso, Eduardo Álvarez-Miranda","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131246","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Large-scale ecosystem restoration requires spatial planning tools that identify where limited resources are most likely to deliver durable ecological benefits. Yet ecological feasibility is often treated as an exclusion filter or screening criterion; here, we optimize it alongside biodiversity and other ecological criteria. We developed a multi-objective optimization decision-support framework that integrates ecological feasibility with extinction risk reduction, carbon stock priority, and riparian restoration priority. The framework is grounded in systematic conservation planning and formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model. Single-objective optimizations define benchmark performance for each criterion, and normalized goal programming identifies compromise portfolios under fixed restoration budget and land suitability constraints. Ecological feasibility is represented as a spatial indicator of relative favorability for restoration persistence under recurrent pressures, based on recurrent fire exposure, anthropogenic pressure, and invasive species richness. Applied to continental Chile at 1 km2 resolution (812,910 planning units), including ecological feasibility as an optimization objective resulted in a 16.52% spatial reallocation of the feasibility-excluded portfolio, with an equivalent proportion entering the feasibility-inclusive portfolio, under an illustrative 30% national restoration planning scenario. This reallocation increased feasibility performance by 11.07 percentage points and extinction risk reduction by 1.20 percentage points, with moderate reductions in carbon stock priority (-4.17) and riparian restoration priority (-2.47). Selection frequency diagnostics showed that compromise solutions were anchored in a shared backbone of multipurpose areas, complemented by specialized units that resolved local trade-offs. The framework provides a transparent and adaptable basis for balancing ecological value with favorability for restoration persistence in spatial prioritization.</p>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"419 ","pages":"131246"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A traffic-informed screening framework for prioritizing tire and road wear particle monitoring and mitigation in the Delaware River Basin.","authors":"Zhi Li, Yicheng Huang, Ning Sun, Zhuoran Duan, Mark Wigmosta, Zhaoqing Yang, Benjamin Maurer","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131126","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Tire and road wear particles (TRWPs) are traffic-derived contaminants generated continuously on road surfaces and delivered to streams episodically by stormwater runoff. Direct TRWP measurements remain too sparse in most river basins to calibrate predictive concentration models, yet managers must decide where to monitor, when to sample, and where mitigation is likely to be effective. This study presents a distributed hydrologic particle-transport screening framework for TRWP/TWP prioritization in the Delaware River Basin. The framework combines Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT), road-network connectivity, 90 m hydrologic routing, and 3-h particle-transport simulations for water years 2011-2018. Because published source factors depend strongly on whether they represent total tread mass, an airborne particle fraction, or a specific vehicle class, model output is interpreted as a source-scenario and relative-priority indicator rather than a validated estimate of absolute in-stream concentration. The reference scenario uses a 51.1 mg vehicle-km^-1 passenger-car total-wear factor and identifies the lower-basin urban corridor near Philadelphia and Wilmington as the strongest source-connectivity convergence zone. In the WY2018 reference scenario, modeled indicators at the Lower Delaware outlet are one to two orders of magnitude larger than those at the Upper Delaware outlet. A representative October 2017 event illustrates how dry-weather buildup followed by runoff-generating rainfall can create candidate storm-recession sampling windows. Multi-year monthly patterns identify fall and late-winter to early-spring as candidate monitoring periods, while turbidity records indicate that conventional sediment indicators should not be used as standalone TRWP proxies. The framework translates sparse traffic, hydrologic, and water-quality information into testable monitoring and mitigation priorities.</p>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":" ","pages":"131126"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interpreting carbon signals in acid mine drainage systems: A critical evidence synthesis and boundary-aware framework for inventory-relevant assessment.","authors":"Yi-Ming Kuo, Aileen Huelgas-Orbecido, I D A A Warmadewanthi, Joshua Pascual Pocaan, Delia B Senoro, Cris Edward F Monjardin, Tsair-Fuh Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131283","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131283","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Acid mine drainage (AMD) alters inorganic-carbon cycling through sulfide oxidation, mineral dissolution, aqueous transport, gas exchange, and secondary mineral formation. Consequently, pH recovery, alkalinity gain, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) enrichment, and carbonate formation do not by themselves demonstrate atmospheric CO₂ removal. This critical evidence synthesis develops a reproducible, boundary-aware framework that separates physical carbon conservation from source-attributed atmospheric accounting. The framework combines three hydrogeochemical screening regimes with cumulative L1-L3 evidence tiers and an operational sulfuric-acid source correction that distinguishes sulfide-derived sulfate from non-sulfide inputs and sulfur-cycle losses. L1 identifies mechanisms, L2 quantifies carbon fluxes or stocks within a declared physical boundary, and L3 classifies net atmospheric impact over a defined accounting interval after closure of all material atmospheric-balance terms and propagation of uncertainty. Persistence beyond that interval is evaluated separately as a durability qualification. Process-class distinctions among natural neutralization, passive limestone treatment, engineered mineral carbonation, ultramafic or enhanced weathering, and biologically mediated alkalinity generation prevent treatment-derived or lithogenic carbon from being conflated with atmospheric removal. Application to six regional evidence groups supported L1 interpretation only, whereas four published field benchmarks provided progressively stronger L2 and L3-relevant evidence. A synthetic worked example demonstrates complete L3 accounting. The framework links strongest permissible interpretation to the first unresolved material evidence requirement and provides an auditable basis for inventory-relevant assessment.</p>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"419 ","pages":"131283"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Vegetation restoration and climate change shape the spatial distribution and biomass of terrestrial ants on the Loess Plateau.","authors":"Zhiyong Li, Yechen Zhou, Yongbo Zhang, Xi Yang, Tongchuan Li, Ming'an Shao","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131287","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As ecological engineers, terrestrial ants play a significant role in modifying soil structure, influencing the carbon cycle, affecting soil microorganisms and soil food webs. Accurately estimating ant biomass is crucial for assessing their ecological impacts. To investigate the spatial distribution and drivers of ant density, field sampling of ant communities, soil, and vegetation was conducted at 27 sites on the Loess Plateau from 2022 to 2024. The findings indicated that ants on the Loess Plateau exhibit pronounced zonal distribution characteristics. In addition to vegetation coverage, annual rainfall and air temperature emerged as the most significant factors influencing the ant density. Based on land-use types, climate, and soil parameters, two regression models were developed to estimate the ant density in farmland and forest-grassland ecosystems. The density of ants in forest-grassland areas was found to be 2.15 times greater than that in farmland. However, the differences among forest, shrub, and grassland habitats were not statistically significant (P > 0.05). The total ant population across the Loess Plateau was estimated to be 2.41 × 10¹³ individuals, corresponding to a biomass of 1.49 × 10⁴ tons of dry carbon. Rainfall was identified as the primary factor in calculating ant biomass. The majority of ant density are concentrated in regions with annual rainfall exceeding 400 mm, comprising 93.1% of the total ant biomass on the Loess Plateau. Our spatial estimates indicated that ant biomass on the Loess Plateau is 76.7% higher than the estimated pre-restoration baseline, a trend strongly associated with extensive vegetation restoration efforts since the initiation of the Grain for Green Project in 1999. This study underscores the significance of global revegetation and climate change in forecasting ant distribution and overall biomass. Our findings offer a vital reference for comprehensively understanding the abundance and ecological significance of ants.</p>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"419 ","pages":"131287"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Structural vulnerability regimes of water supply systems under climate change: A robustness-based analysis using multi-dimensional sustainability indicators.","authors":"Wonjin Kim, Seongkyu Kang, Soyoung Woo, Sijung Choi","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131277","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate change is expected to intensify hydrological variability and extreme events, increasing the vulnerability of basin-scale multi-sector water supply systems. Conventional assessments commonly summarize vulnerability using failure probability, providing limited insight into how failure-prone conditions are organized across system states. This study develops a multi-dimensional sustainability framework to characterize structural vulnerability regimes in the Seomjin River Basin, Korea. Natural runoff and water allocation are simulated using a coupled Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Korea-Water Evaluation and Planning system (K-WEAP) framework to evaluate domestic, industrial, agricultural, and instream flow sectors under future climate scenarios. A Classification and Regression Tree model combined with bootstrap resampling estimates conditional failure probability across a two-dimensional space defined by variability-based and risk-based sustainability metrics. The resulting fields reveal sector-specific vulnerability structures, including a compound-stress regime for domestic supply, a threshold-driven regime for agriculture, and a broadly distributed vulnerability basin for instream flow. Density weighting indicates that expected failure exposure (EFE) is highest for instream flow and agriculture (0.52 and 0.49, respectively) and substantially lower for domestic supply (0.07). Exceedance area curves further show that vulnerable regions can persist across broad probability ranges before contracting at higher thresholds. These results demonstrate that water-system vulnerability depends on the organization, exposure, and persistence of failure-prone states, rather than on failure probability alone.</p>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"419 ","pages":"131277"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}