Journal of Environmental Management最新文献

{"title":"Natural attenuation and engineering-based removal of marine algal toxins: current status and future perspectives","authors":"Lianbao Chi,&nbsp;Donald M. Anderson,&nbsp;Xiaona Zhang,&nbsp;Mingbao Feng,&nbsp;Yongquan Yuan,&nbsp;Xihua Cao,&nbsp;Wentao Wang,&nbsp;Zhiming Yu,&nbsp;Xiuxian Song","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global surge in harmful algal blooms (HABs), amplified by ocean warming and eutrophication, has intensified ecological and public health risks through the production of potent marine algal toxins. Given their ubiquitous occurrence, environmental persistence, and adverse effects on marine ecosystems and coastal economies, increasing efforts have been devoted to mitigating toxic HABs and associated toxin pollution. This review presents a systematic, integrated analysis of natural attenuation processes and engineering-based removal technologies for marine algal toxins, addressing a critical gap in which marine toxin treatment remains understudied relative to freshwater cyanotoxins. Natural attenuation through photodegradation and biodegradation provides baseline protection in marine environments, although removal efficiency varies substantially with light availability, temperature, and microbial community composition. Engineering-based technologies achieve substantially higher removal efficiencies but face operational challenges. We highlighted the removal performance, transformation products (TPs), and reaction pathways during natural attenuation and different remediation treatments, and predicted the biodegradability and multi-endpoint toxicity of each TP using <em>in silico</em> QSAR software. A key finding is that degradation can generate TPs with altered persistence, bioaccumulation potential, and toxicity relative to parent toxins, causing secondary risks that are often overlooked. This review therefore emphasizes the need for further research into toxin fate, comprehensive risk assessment, and effective management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"418 ","pages":"Article 131061"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149079256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interpretable machine learning for spatially differentiated nonlinear relationships between PM2.5 and landscape patterns in an urban-rural integrated zone in China","authors":"Li He,&nbsp;Jiange Tao,&nbsp;Hepu Deng,&nbsp;Chenxu Wang,&nbsp;Chunyan Li,&nbsp;Meng Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130981","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130981","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the spatial heterogeneity of fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) is critical for differentiated air-quality management in rapidly urbanizing regions. This study investigates spatially differentiated nonlinear associations between PM₂.₅ and landscape patterns in an urban–rural integrated zone of Xuchang, China. Digital elevation models, normalized difference vegetation indices, building footprints, and land-use/land-cover data are integrated with morphological spatial pattern analysis and FRAGSTATS metrics to characterize grey–green spaces (GGS). A Random Forest model with SHAP interpretation is used to quantify the relative importance, direction, and nonlinear effects of these critical factors, leading to the identification of three spatial patterns along urban–rural and topographic gradients. In high-elevation mountainous areas, elevation shows the strongest association with PM₂.₅, consistent with enhanced atmospheric dispersion and lower anthropogenic emissions. In low-elevation and high-density urban cores, mean building height exhibits an apparent inflection range of 35–40 m, above which its positive association with PM₂.₅ is strengthened. In peri-urban and county-town transition zones, GGS configuration is predominant: green-space porosity ranges of 0.18–0.22 in plains and 0.12–0.15 in hilly areas, together with greater blue-space connectivity, are associated with lower PM₂.₅ concentrations. These findings provide spatially explicit diagnostic references for differentiated air-quality governance, highlighting terrain and ecological continuity in mountainous areas, building layout and ventilation in dense urban cores, and green-space porosity and landscape connectivity in transition zones. The identified thresholds should be validated using independent datasets before being considered for planning standards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"418 ","pages":"Article 130981"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149079262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flow-dominated wet-month total suspended solids loading across Great Lakes wastewater permit units","authors":"Yan Huang,&nbsp;Yao Guo,&nbsp;David Robinson,&nbsp;Dongru Qiu","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Monthly regulatory records can show whether wet periods coincide with greater solids discharge, but mixed reporting bases can obscure the flow and concentration components of the mass signal. We linked U.S. Environmental Protection Agency discharge monitoring reports with monthly precipitation for 675 National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit units associated with publicly owned treatment works in the U.S. Great Lakes basin from January 2010 through September 2024. Reporting-aligned records shared the same permit, outfall, month, monitoring location, and average statistical basis. The primary sample contained 40,585 permit-months from 377 permit units. Permit-unit and year-month fixed-effects models estimated monthly within-permit associations. An interquartile increase in precipitation was associated with 21.7% higher effluent flow (95% confidence interval, 18.7-24.8), 3.4% higher flow-weighted total suspended solids concentration (1.3-5.6), and 25.9% higher reconstructed load (21.6-30.4). Here, flow-dominated means that the fitted flow coefficient was larger than the concentration coefficient; it did not identify a physical mechanism. This ordering persisted across time periods, warm-month thresholds, weather products, and aligned EPA mass-rate records. In 31,837 exactly aligned permit-months, the direct-to-reconstructed load ratio had a median of 0.999 and a 5th-95th percentile range of 0.633-1.400. Under the primary audit, the precipitation contrast corresponded to a model-standardized difference of 311 metric tonnes per representative month; a weather-grid bootstrap gave a 95% interval of 178-476 tonnes. The top 10% of permit units supplied 76.5% of the summed positive standardized difference, largely because of baseline throughput. These monthly associations can guide follow-up monitoring but do not rank treatment performance, compliance, or receiving-water risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"418 ","pages":"Article 131031"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149079293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A robust optimization method for integrating on-site medical waste treatment in rural areas with centralized treatment in urban areas","authors":"Yawen Deng,&nbsp;Qi Lv,&nbsp;Lei Li,&nbsp;Wenxin Luo,&nbsp;Yidan Huang,&nbsp;Adam NG Tsan Sheng,&nbsp;Bin Su","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rural healthcare facilities generate medical waste (MW) and current practice routes this waste to centralized treatment plants in urban areas. Advances in on-site equipment have made local treatment of rural MW feasible, but no systematic framework exists for coordinating on-site and centralized treatment in an integrated urban–rural system. This study is the first to formulate on-site treatment as a mode-choice decision jointly optimized with centralized treatment across urban and rural areas under transportation cost uncertainty. A multi-objective robust optimization model is developed to minimize cost, risk, and carbon emissions, evaluating three centralized technologies and two on-site treatment options. Results show that on-site treatment reduces system risk and carbon emissions. The robust model yields more conservative cost estimates than its deterministic counterpart while achieving lower risk and emissions by retaining more on-site treatment selections. Combining centralized and on-site treatment withstands larger surges in MW generation than centralized treatment alone, offering resilience for public health emergencies. Incineration is the most cost-effective centralized technology despite the highest emissions, while microwave sterilization is the cheapest on-site option and high-temperature steam sterilization yields the lowest emissions. This study offers a practical decision-making tool for the integrated management of urban–rural MW systems with centralized and on-site treatment under uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"418 ","pages":"Article 131040"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149102210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the human-nature relationships on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau through interactive analysis of ecosystem services and human activities over a 20-year period","authors":"Chunsheng Wu,&nbsp;Erfu Dai,&nbsp;Haimeng Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Identifying human-nature relationships is essential for supporting regional ecological security and sustainable development. However, limitations persist due to insufficiently comprehensive indicators for characterizing human and natural attributes, as well as a lack of localized analysis in exploring their interactions, hindering targeted conservation policymaking. To address these gaps, this study developed an ecosystem services integrated benefits (ESIB) index to more holistically express natural attributes. Combined with a human activity index (HAI), we employed the median slope estimator, local clustering method, and a four-quadrant diagrammatic model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and local interaction characteristics of human–nature relationships on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) from 2000 to 2020. Results show that 59.16% of the QTP experienced ESIB decline (with 4.89% statistically significant), while HAI increased more than it decreased, indicating ongoing anthropogenic pressure. Spatially, ESIB improved in the east, whereas HAI rose in central and western regions. Significant relationships between ESIB change rate and HAI change rate were concentrated around urban peripheries and along roads. Along roadsides, 38.80% of areas exhibited conflict relationships, and this proportion reached 49.60% along national roads. The Xining metropolitan area showed more harmonious human-nature relations than the Yarlung Tsangpo-Nyangchu-Lhasa region, where human-nature relationships in urban areas were largely depended on development and conservation policies. Among various ecological project combinations, grassland protection combined with forestland protection yielded the most favorable outcomes, with coordination and restoration zones accounting for 53.06% of its significant area. The proposed framework advances understanding of human-nature interactions on the QTP and offers a practical reference for future research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"418 ","pages":"Article 131081"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149102235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of inter-basin water transfer on reservoir storage and regional drought characteristics","authors":"Ruixuan Zhao,&nbsp;Yanping Qu,&nbsp;Tianliang Jiang,&nbsp;Xiaojing Yang,&nbsp;Hao Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130947","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130947","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Middle Route Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD-MRP) is an important measure for alleviating water scarcity in central and northern China. To clarify the regulatory effects of inter-basin water transfer on reservoir droughts in both water intake and receiving regions, this study reconstructs a daily reservoir storage dataset for 1990-2024 using multi-source remote sensing data. A Remote Sensing-based High-Resolution Reservoir Drought Index (RS-HRDI) is developed to identify drought events, and copula functions are applied to examine drought characteristics, spatial heterogeneity, and the evolution of joint drought probabilities before and after project commissioning across the water intake (Danjiangkou Reservoir) and receiving sub-regions (a, b, and c). The results show that, after project commissioning, drought responses in the receiving regions are weaker than those in the water intake, and the frequency of drought events lasting longer than 15 days decreases. In addition, the joint drought probability declines from 2.83%-6.12% to 0.18%-0.51%, while the regional drought dependence structure shifts from the Clayton copula to the Gumbel copula. These changes suggest that the spatial propagation of drought signals is weakened after project commissioning and are consistent with a reduced risk of drought events lasting longer than 15 days in the receiving regions. Overall, these findings provide scientific support for drought risk management and the coordinated operation of inter-basin water transfer systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"418 ","pages":"Article 130947"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149102365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hydroclimatic associations with vegetation resilience in China's Loess Plateau","authors":"Yiqian Sun,&nbsp;Xiaoming Feng,&nbsp;Xutong Wu,&nbsp;Zhuangzhuang Wang,&nbsp;Bojie Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding how recovery-related vegetation resilience varies along hydroclimatic gradients is important for evaluating vegetation sustainability in water-limited regions. Here, using satellite-derived vegetation indices and resilience metrics derived from critical slowing down theory, we assessed the spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of recovery-related vegetation resilience across China's Loess Plateau (LP) from 2000 to 2023 and examined how these patterns and dynamics relate to hydroclimatic conditions. Regional mean resilience shows vegetation-type-specific non-monotonic dynamics: forest resilience fluctuates after an initial increase and declines after 2014–2015, whereas grassland resilience peaks around 2010 before declining. Despite these regional-mean phase shifts, pixel-level resilience remains generally stable. Spatially, areas of relatively high resilience within each vegetation type occur mainly in forest interiors and in grasslands of the east-central LP and western highlands. Although resilience and vegetation greenness are positively associated in space, their temporal changes are only weakly synchronized. Soil moisture is the highest-ranked individual predictor of resilience for both forests and grasslands, although its importance may reflect integrated hydroclimatic conditions. Higher resilience generally occurs in regions characterized by greater water availability, lower temperatures, or weaker intra-annual temperature variability. These findings support a context-dependent interpretation of large-scale resilience metrics and provide a basis for adaptive management aimed at sustaining stable forest and grassland ecosystems in climate transition zones and water-limited regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"418 ","pages":"Article 131054"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149102398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Land-use history shapes microbial phosphorus acquisition and use strategies in the Zoige alpine wetland","authors":"Yajie Sun,&nbsp;Roland Bol,&nbsp;Chao Wang,&nbsp;Hui Wang,&nbsp;Yanhong Lou,&nbsp;Hong Pan,&nbsp;Quangang Yang,&nbsp;Zhongchen Yang,&nbsp;Hao Tang,&nbsp;Lei Du,&nbsp;Yuping Zhuge,&nbsp;Benjamin L. Turner","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130940","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130940","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Alpine wetland conservation and restoration are reshaping wetland use and soil conditions on the Zoige Plateau, but how these changes influence phosphorus (P) cycling remains poorly understood, even though cold, waterlogged soils can constrain P availability and make P cycling critical for ecosystem functioning. Here, we compared soil P fractions and microbial P-use strategies among persistent meadow, natural peatland and meadow-to-peatland transition sites identified from land survey records. Meadow soils contained the smallest P pools across most fractions but supported the greatest abundance of P-acquisition genes, including P-starvation regulators (e.g., <em>phoR</em>, <em>SenX3</em>), phosphate transporters (<em>pstA</em>, <em>pit</em>, <em>ugpC</em>), and P-mobilizing genes (<em>phoD</em>, <em>gcd</em>), indicating an acquisition-oriented P-use strategy. In contrast, natural peatland soils contained higher P concentrations but lower overall P-cycling gene abundance, a more cohesive and modular co-occurrence network, and enrichment of genes for phosphonate/phosphite utilization (<em>phnX</em>, <em>phnC</em>, <em>phnW</em>, <em>ptxC</em>), reflecting a specialized P-use strategy under organic-rich and wetter conditions. Restored peatland displayed intermediate P concentrations and gene composition but the weakest network connectivity, suggesting incomplete reassembly of coordinated P-cycling pathways. Across the land-use histories, soil pH and total N were the strongest environmental correlates of P-cycling gene configuration, while physicochemical conditions structured P pools more strongly than microbial functional potential alone. These findings demonstrate that contrasting land-use histories in alpine wetlands are associated with coordinated shifts in microbial P-use and acquisition strategies, with implications for understanding the long-term biogeochemical cycling in these sensitive ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"418 ","pages":"Article 130940"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149102440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of nitrogen deposition and litter dynamics on soil respiration in a semiarid sandy grassland","authors":"Jin Zhan,&nbsp;Yulin Li,&nbsp;Yongfu Ji,&nbsp;Jinnian Tang,&nbsp;Xiangwen Fang,&nbsp;Ruiqi Liang,&nbsp;Ya Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Soil respiration (Rs) is the second-largest carbon dioxide flux from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, and increasing atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition affects terrestrial carbon fluxes by altering plant productivity and litter input. However, few studies have examined the effects of N deposition and litter management on Rs and its components in sandy grassland ecosystems of semiarid regions, or the associated drivers. After 9 years of continuous field treatments combining N addition [non-N addition (N0) and N addition (N1)] with litter manipulation [litter left on the soil (L1, control), litter removal (L0) and litter doubled (L2)], we investigated the seasonal dynamics of Rs, microbial respiration (Rm), and root respiration (Rt) in the Horqin Sandy Land in 2022. Four key findings emerged: (1) Seasonal patterns of Rs components remained consistent across treatments, and litter removal significantly reduced Rm by 25.34% through substrate limitation. (2) Compared with our earlier work (after 3 consecutive years of field treatments), after 9-year continuous nitrogen addition in the current study weakened the stimulation of Rt via soil acidification in 2022. Similarly, while litter doubled after 3 years previously stimulated Rs and its components in our previous study, litter doubled after 9 years shifted this effect to inhibition. (3) Temperature sensitivity (Q₁₀) analysis revealed differential responses, with N addition reducing the Q₁₀ of Rt and litter manipulation lowering the Q₁₀ values across components. (4) The random forest analysis indicated that, under N addition and litter manipulation, soil moisture is the primary driver of the seasonal dynamics of Rs, Rm, and Rt. These results highlight the critical role of treatment duration in evaluating the impacts of litter manipulation on soil C dynamics in wind-eroded grasslands under chronic N deposition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"418 ","pages":"Article 131024"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149056691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How to synergize natural resource supply-demand mismatching to allocate the most suitable NbS measures?","authors":"Yifei Zhao,&nbsp;Shiliang Liu,&nbsp;Wanting Wang,&nbsp;Yetong Li,&nbsp;Jingyang Fan,&nbsp;Yuhong Dong,&nbsp;Gang Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131052","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131052","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The application of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) measures can enhance the supply capacity of natural resources and provide essential support for sustainable development. However, NbS planning often lacks a scientific basis that integrates local ecological conditions with socio-economic needs. In response to the ability of different types of NbS to provide a variety of natural resource supply remedies, this study proposed a methodology which is applied to the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) in China, considering four major NbS types (climate-oriented, food-oriented, recreation-oriented, and water-oriented) and five natural resource elements (water, food, climate regulation, recreation, and habitat quality). The methodology follows a structured “where–what–how” framework, in which intervention locations are identified based on supply–demand mismatches, suitable NbS types are selected through functional matching using AHP scoring, and future NbS allocations are predicted via a Dynamic Bayesian Network model that integrates environmental and socio-economic drivers. The results showed that the indicative sites for NbS implementation distributed in a three parallel stripes pattern across the study area, among them, water and food were the two most needed NbS types in the study area, covering up to 80% area of the study area. Combined with the estimated results for 2030, different socio-climatic development pathways lead to changes in the prioritized types of NbS exported by the sites. Our approach can be used to plan decisions for multiple NbS types to provide natural resource supply compensation capacity where it is most needed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"418 ","pages":"Article 131052"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149079268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}