Ciência e Natura最新文献_第3页

Selection of models and parameter estimation for monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil via Bayesian inference 通过贝叶斯推理为监测巴西 COVID-19 流行病选择模型和估计参数

Ciência e Natura Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.5902/2179460x73812

Lucas Martins Inez, Carlos E.R. Dalla, W. B. D. Silva, J. Dutra, José Mir Justino da Costa

{"title":"Selection of models and parameter estimation for monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil via Bayesian inference","authors":"Lucas Martins Inez, Carlos E.R. Dalla, W. B. D. Silva, J. Dutra, José Mir Justino da Costa","doi":"10.5902/2179460x73812","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460x73812","url":null,"abstract":"In 2019, a new strain of coronavirus led to an outbreak of disease cases named COVID-19, evolving rapidly into a pandemic. In Brazil, delayed decision making and lack of knowledge have resulted in an alarming increase in daily transmission and deaths. In this context, researchers used mathematical models to assist in determining the parameters that act in the spread of diseases, revealing containment measures. However, numerous mathematical models exist in the literature, each with specific parameters to be specified, leading to an important question about which model best represents the pandemic behavior. In this regard, this work aims to apply the Approximate Bayesian Computation method to select the best model and simultaneously estimate the parameters to resolve the abovementioned issue. The models adopted were susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR), susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR), susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS), and susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS). Approximate Bayesian Computation Monte Carlo Sequencing (ABC-SMC) was used to select among four competing models to represent the number of infected individuals and to estimate the model parameters based on three periods of Brazil COVID-19 data. A forecasting test was performed to test the ABC-SMC algorithm and the selected models for two months. The result was compared with the actual number of infected that were reported. Among the teste models, it was found that the ABC-SMC algorithm had a promising performance, since the data were noisy and the models could not predict all parameters.","PeriodicalId":348075,"journal":{"name":"Ciência e Natura","volume":" 47","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138616251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Forecast modelling of vegetable oil spill events at Paranaguá Port, Brazil 巴西巴拉那瓜港植物油泄漏事件的预测建模

Ciência e Natura Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.5902/2179460x74957

Luiz Gustavo Schmidt, Eduardo de Paula Kirinus

{"title":"Forecast modelling of vegetable oil spill events at Paranaguá Port, Brazil","authors":"Luiz Gustavo Schmidt, Eduardo de Paula Kirinus","doi":"10.5902/2179460x74957","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460x74957","url":null,"abstract":"The Port of Paranaguá serves as Brazil's primary outlet for soy oil exports, accounting for nearly 70% of all shipments in 2021. While less common than mineral oil spills, vegetable oil spills can have similarly devastating environmental effects. This risk underscores the need for effective planning and management of activities involving vegetable oil handling in the region. To address this need, this study developed results based on a forecasting setup focused on describing the behaviour of soy oil spills in the estuarine complex of Paranaguá. The system uses the open TELEMAC-MASCARET three-dimensional numerical modelling system to solve oil movement equations, coupling the hydrodynamic module (Telemac-3d) with the oil module (ECOS). The system is automated through computational routines written in Python and the bash command language, enabling users to initiate simulations and generate dispersion maps to track soybean oil in hypothetical spill scenarios. The processing results were satisfactory, demonstrating the potential for this tool to contribute to minimising the impacts of soybean oil spills in the Bay of Paranaguá. This system can support better decision-making in response efforts, reduce environmental damage, and enhance the protection of local ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":348075,"journal":{"name":"Ciência e Natura","volume":" 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138617179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Immunological memory improves the long-term cross-immunity: An influenza case study 免疫记忆可改善长期交叉免疫：流感案例研究

Ciência e Natura Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.5902/2179460x73999

A. De Cezaro, Ana Carla Ferreira Nicola Gomes, Joice Chaves Marques

引用次数: 0

Fractional calculus applied to the Cournot-type adjustment model 将分数微积分应用于库诺型调整模型

Ciência e Natura Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.5902/2179460x73724

A. De Cezaro, Matheus Madeira Correa

引用次数: 0

A numerical investigation on the wind-induced response of a high-rise building considering the soil-structure interaction 考虑土-结构相互作用的高层建筑风致响应数值研究

Ciência e Natura Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.5902/2179460x74430

M. Visintainer, A. L. Braun

{"title":"A numerical investigation on the wind-induced response of a high-rise building considering the soil-structure interaction","authors":"M. Visintainer, A. L. Braun","doi":"10.5902/2179460x74430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460x74430","url":null,"abstract":"In the present work, a numerical investigation is carried out to evaluate the wind-induced response of a standard tall building model resting on a deformable soil. The numerical model is developed in this work from a partitioned coupling scheme, in which the physical media involved are solved sequentially, and may present independent discretization and solution methods. The problem is spatially discretized using eight-node hexahedral isoparametric elements with underintegration techniques. The fundamental flow equations are kinematically described using an arbitrary lagrangian-eulerian (ALE) formulation and numerically solved using the explicit two-step Taylor-Galerkin scheme. Structure and soil are considered as deformable elastoplastic media, using a corotational approach to deal with physical and geometric nonlinearities. A three-dimensional contact formulation based on the penalty method is used to perform the load transfer between soil and foundation. A hybrid parallelization model based on CUDA-OpenMP techniques is employed to improve the processing performance. Numerical results obtained from aeroelastic analyses are compared with numerical and wind tunnel measurements reported by other authors. Results demonstrated that the soil-structure interaction affected the building response to the wind action and the aeroelastic instability due to vortex shedding can be considerably reduced with the soil presence.","PeriodicalId":348075,"journal":{"name":"Ciência e Natura","volume":" 1180","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138610063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Influência dos fenômenos de submeso nos parâmetros turbulentos sob diferentes condições de estabilidade da CLN da Amazônia 亚马逊近地流不同稳定条件下亚质量现象对湍流参数的影响

Ciência e Natura Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.5902/2179460x82079

Fabíola Carolina Pereira Valente, Paulo Yoshio Kubota, Dayana Castilho de Souza, Layson de Jesus Menezes Gonçalves

{"title":"Influência dos fenômenos de submeso nos parâmetros turbulentos sob diferentes condições de estabilidade da CLN da Amazônia","authors":"Fabíola Carolina Pereira Valente, Paulo Yoshio Kubota, Dayana Castilho de Souza, Layson de Jesus Menezes Gonçalves","doi":"10.5902/2179460x82079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460x82079","url":null,"abstract":"O movimento de submeso escala é muito importante em condições de estratificação estável, que costumeiramente ocorre na CLN, por ser um tipo de movimento que pode desencadear a turbulência intermitente. Assim, propõe-se identificar sinais de submeso escala e verificar qual a sua relação com a variabilidade de alguns parâmetros turbulentos, sobretudo da altura do ponto de inflexão, em três noites com condição de estabilidade atmosférica diferentes. Utilizou-se dados em alta frequência (20 Hz), medidos pelos anemômetros sônicos nos 10 níveis verticais da torre micrometeorológica, localizada em um sítio experimental na Amazônia central (sítio K34). Nos dados aplicou-se da transformada de ondaleta de Morlet na variável u (vento zonal) para identificar a intensidade do sinal de submeso, e realizou-se os cálculos para obter os parâmetros turbulentos (z/L, u*, H, e ponto de inflexão) para verificar a influência dos fenômenos de submeso. Os resultados mostram que os fenômenos de submeso podem afetar a altura do ponto de inflexão.","PeriodicalId":348075,"journal":{"name":"Ciência e Natura","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139248873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fluxo de metano proveniente do solo em área de floresta e pastagem no Oeste do Pará 帕拉州西部森林和牧场地区土壤中的甲烷通量

Ciência e Natura Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.5902/2179460x80259

Taiane Fernandes da Silva, Rafael Corrêa Muniz, Laura dos Santos Lima, Raphael Pablo Tapajós Silva, José M. S. Moura

{"title":"Fluxo de metano proveniente do solo em área de floresta e pastagem no Oeste do Pará","authors":"Taiane Fernandes da Silva, Rafael Corrêa Muniz, Laura dos Santos Lima, Raphael Pablo Tapajós Silva, José M. S. Moura","doi":"10.5902/2179460x80259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460x80259","url":null,"abstract":"Na região Amazônica os estudos sobre gases do efeito estufa ainda são realizados com baixa frequência, de modo que entender a dinâmica e fluxo desses gases na região é de grande importância. Dentre esses gases destaca-se o metano, que é o segundo gás do efeito estufa com maior concentração na atmosfera. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste trabalho foi quantificar os fluxos de metano em área de floresta primária e pastagem e analisar a variabilidade sazonal da emissão/absorção desse gás, assim como verificar a influência dos fatores ambientais, atuando no comportamento do metano. A região de estudo compreendeu o Município de Belterra, Oeste do Pará. Para medição dos fluxos de metano no solo foram utilizadas câmaras estáticas com o auxílio de um analisador de gás do efeito estufa (Los Gatos Research (LGR-915-0011). O fluxo de metano no solo da região da Flona apresentou média de -1.499 ± 1.3 mg CH₄ m−2 d−1 e uma média de -0.4776 ± 1.21 mg CH₄ m−2 d−1 para a área de pastagem, obtiveram-se valores positivos e negativos, para as diferentes áreas, indicando emissão e consumo de metano, respectivamente, no período estudado.","PeriodicalId":348075,"journal":{"name":"Ciência e Natura","volume":"70 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139249202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Linhas de instabilidade na região Amazônica e o transporte de gases próximo à superfície durante a ocorrência de downdraft 亚马逊地区的不稳定线和下沉气流期间近地面的气体输送

Ciência e Natura Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.5902/2179460x81657

G. Silva, Cléo Queresma Dias Júnior, J. Cohen, Stefan Aiko Wolff

{"title":"Linhas de instabilidade na região Amazônica e o transporte de gases próximo à superfície durante a ocorrência de downdraft","authors":"G. Silva, Cléo Queresma Dias Júnior, J. Cohen, Stefan Aiko Wolff","doi":"10.5902/2179460x81657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460x81657","url":null,"abstract":"As linhas de instabilidade (LI) são um dos sistemas atmosféricos mais importantes e frequentes na Amazônia e no norte do Nordeste do Brasil. Podem ser entendidas como conjuntos organizados de cumulonimbus, com deslocamento simultâneo, responsáveis por índices elevados de precipitação e modificam a estrutura termodinâmica atmosférica perto da superfície nessas regiões. Sua causa se relaciona com a circulação da brisa marítima e com a oscilação diurna e são importantes para o transporte de calor para a alta troposfera. Sua atividade máxima pode ser observada ao anoitecer. Nas regiões tropicais, especialmente na Amazônia, os eventos de convecção profunda estão intimamente relacionados à ocorrência de correntes ascendentes e descendentes de ar. As correntes descendentes, conhecidas como downdrafts, são originadas em altos níveis, e são compostas por uma camada de ar frio e denso que se espalha no solo como uma “piscina fria”, causando mudanças na direção do vento perto do solo. O downdraft é o elo entre a convecção profunda e as fontes e sumidouros de gases traços, como o (O3) e (CO2).","PeriodicalId":348075,"journal":{"name":"Ciência e Natura","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139248206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparative study of energy balance in urban and forest areas in Central Amazonia 亚马逊中部城市和森林地区能量平衡比较研究

Ciência e Natura Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.5902/2179460x80263

Denisi Holanda Hall, Cléo Queresma Dias Júnior, Luiz Antonio Candido, Bruno Takeshi Tanaka Portela, Leonardo Ramos de Oliveira, Carla de Souza Farias, Maria Juliana de Melo Monte, Anne Cristiny Santos de Mendonça, Joice de Jesus Machado, R. Ferreira, Regison Oliveira Oliveira, Ranyelli Cunha de Figueiredo

{"title":"Comparative study of energy balance in urban and forest areas in Central Amazonia","authors":"Denisi Holanda Hall, Cléo Queresma Dias Júnior, Luiz Antonio Candido, Bruno Takeshi Tanaka Portela, Leonardo Ramos de Oliveira, Carla de Souza Farias, Maria Juliana de Melo Monte, Anne Cristiny Santos de Mendonça, Joice de Jesus Machado, R. Ferreira, Regison Oliveira Oliveira, Ranyelli Cunha de Figueiredo","doi":"10.5902/2179460x80263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460x80263","url":null,"abstract":"Data from two experimental sites in central Amazonia were used, one located in a forested region and the other in an urban region. The values of the radiation and energy balance components were measured at both sites. The observed components of the radiation balance in the forest, and urban areas were quite different. The city, the radiative (albedo and emissivity) and thermal (absorptivity) parameters of the surface produced greater reflection of solar radiation and emission of longwave radiation. Urban pollution reduced the incident solar radiation and increased the longwave radiation emitted by the atmosphere. The energy balance presented marked differences in the partition between sensible and latent heat flux between forest and city. In the forest, much of the available energy is converted into latent heat flux, due to the process of evapotranspiration. Whereas, in the city, energy is equally divided into sensible and latent heat fluxes.","PeriodicalId":348075,"journal":{"name":"Ciência e Natura","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139247045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Análise de sinais de alerta antecipados durante a ocorrência de fenômenos atmosféricos extremos em diferentes sítios experimentais da Amazônia 分析亚马逊不同实验地点发生极端大气现象时的预警信号

Ciência e Natura Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.5902/2179460x75415

Francisco Otávio Miranda, Bruno Coelho Bulcão, Cléo Queresma Dias Júnior, A. O. Manzi, Cledenilson Mendonça de Souza

引用次数: 0