Immunological memory improves the long-term cross-immunity: An influenza case study

In this contribution, we investigate the effects of the immunological memory in the population against the strain mutation of a disease, assuming that this memory is enhanced by the dynamics that follow a multi-order fractional SIRC model. We use weekly infection data on Influenza H1N1 in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, reported in the year of 2010, as the guide for our simulations and parameter choices. The simulated results suggest that the best scenarios, regarding the Influenza H1N1 data fit and that have a long-term prevention of reinfection for mutated strains of a circulating disease is the one in which the compartment of the population has a distinct level of immunological memory. Hence, any immunization strategy should be applied as early as possible, allowing the individual to acquire immunological memory before the strain can undergo mutations.