Regional Sustainability最新文献

{"title":"Exploring uncertainty in the household water, energy, and food nexus: trade-offs and synergies in South Africa","authors":"Thulani NINGI ,&nbsp;Amon TARUVINGA ,&nbsp;Leocadia ZHOU ,&nbsp;Saul NGARAVA","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100355","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100355","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Access to water, energy, and food (WEF) remains a persistent challenge in many developing countries, particularly in rural areas where infrastructural limitations and socio-economic vulnerabilities intersect. At the household level, identifying the complex trade-offs and synergies within the water-energy-food (W-E-F) nexus remains a major challenge due to uncertainties and competing priorities. This study addressed this gap by applying partial correlation network analysis and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to model the interactions and sensitivities of WEF-related decisions among households. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 655 households in the Amathole District Municipality (ADM), South Africa, using a mixed sampling approach. The analysis explored key trade-offs and synergies across the food-water (F-W), water-energy (W-E), food-energy (F-E), and W-E-F nexus dimensions. Findings revealed that income competition and transportation were major trade-offs, while solar pump use emerged as a significant synergy. Income competition had the highest node strength (0.872) and expected influence (1.117) in the W-E-F nexus trade-off network. Within the synergy network, the strongest node strength and expected influence were found for transportation (1.380 and 1.106, respectively) in the F-W nexus, good energy infrastructure (0.848 and 1.240, respectively) in the W-E nexus, and low energy cost (1.031 and 1.031, respectively) in the F-E nexus. Simulation results further indicated that income competition was highly sensitive to transportation and labour use, while synergies like solar pump use, good energy infrastructure, and low energy cost were most sensitive to changes in the use of modern energy, water saving technique, and use of modern energy, respectively. The study concluded that household-level WEF decisions were shaped by multidimensional trade-offs and synergies that were highly sensitive to resource access, infrastructure, and income dynamics. This study advanced understanding of household-level uncertainties in the W-E-F nexus and provided empirical evidence to inform policies aimed at strengthening household resilience and promoting sustainable governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"7 3","pages":"Article 100355"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148183735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of land use/cover change on ecosystem services and sustainable optimization in the dry-hot valley region of Southwest China","authors":"Zhiqiao LI ,&nbsp;Donghong XIONG ,&nbsp;Wenduo ZHANG ,&nbsp;Qin LIU ,&nbsp;Dongmei ZHAO ,&nbsp;Lin LIU ,&nbsp;Sheikh LARAIB ,&nbsp;Dil Kumar RAI ,&nbsp;Buddhi Raj SHRESTHA ,&nbsp;Xiaomin QIN","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100354","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100354","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid agricultural growth is intensifying the pressure on land resources in the dry-hot valley regions of Southwest China. Assessing the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on ecosystem services (ESs) and clarifying the optimal land use/cover pattern are crucial for promoting sustainable development. This study analyzed the responses of four ESs, including water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), carbon sequestration (CS), and food production (FP), to LUCC in Yuanmou County, Yunnan Province of China, from 2002 to 2022, a representative dry-hot valley region of Southwest China, and examined their interrelationships using statistical approaches. Moreover, this study also projected the future land use/cover patterns and explored the optimal pattern based on ecological security. Large-scale land consolidation resulted in a substantial increase in cropland from 2002 to 2022, which was accompanied by significant reductions in grassland and barren land, leading to a considerable increase in the total ecosystem service value (ESV). During this period, FP increased steadily, whereas WY, SR, and CS declined initially during early land consolidation, subsequently exhibiting divergent trends, with SR and CS showing modest increases and WY showing a slight decrease. Generally, synergy among the four ESs was observed during 2002–2022, although FP caused the decline of other ESs during certain periods. The optimal land use/cover pattern for maximizing ecological security, with cropland and forest accounting for 36.24% and 35.63% of the total area, respectively, indicates that expanding cropland while protecting forest could enhance regional ecological security effectively. Our findings provide practical strategies for managing and conserving dry-hot valley regions in Southwest China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"7 3","pages":"Article 100354"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148183734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimates of grassland carbon storage using machine-learning models","authors":"Zhitao FAN ,&nbsp;Fawu DONG ,&nbsp;Dongwei LIU ,&nbsp;Bingjie LI ,&nbsp;Zhicheng QU ,&nbsp;Shunyu YAO ,&nbsp;Xiashu SU ,&nbsp;Lixin WANG","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100352","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100352","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Grassland is a crucial component of the global ecosystem, essential for maintaining biodiversity, regulating climate, and stabilizing soil. The Mongolian Plateau, with its extensive grasslands, serves as a key region influencing the global carbon cycle. Therefore, accurately estimating above- and below-ground biomass carbon is critical. This study selects the Ordos Grassland on the Mongolian Plateau as a case study to evaluate the performance of five machine-learning models, including random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), <em>k</em>-nearest neighbors (KNN), and backpropagation neural network (BPNN), in predicting biomass carbon using key remote sensing variables as predictors. RF model exhibited excellent capability and stability in predicting both above-ground biomass carbon (AGBC) and below-ground biomass carbon (BGBC), outperforming SVM, DT, KNN, and BPNN models. The total AGBC and BGBC of Ordos Grassland were approximately 16.40×10⁵ and 83.88×10⁵ Mg C, respectively, with mean carbon densities of 116.94 and 575.44 g C/m², respectively. Natural grasslands contributed 89.00% of the total carbon storage. Spatial analysis showed significant heterogeneity, with higher carbon storage values in the eastern region decreasing westward. Temporal analysis from 2019 to 2023 indicated that 36.00% of pixels showed increasing AGBC trends and 39.00% showed increasing BGBC trends. Climate correlation analysis revealed that precipitation was the primary controlling factor for AGBC through positive correlation, while temperature was the most significant factor affecting BGBC through negative correlation, with distinct spatial variations across different climatic conditions. These findings not only provide a scientific basis for the sustainable management of grassland ecosystems on the Mongolian Plateau, but also offer critical data support for regional carbon neutrality strategies and global climate change mitigation. Furthermore, the optimized machine-learning framework established in this study can be extended to large-scale grassland biomass carbon estimation in other similar ecosystems worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"7 3","pages":"Article 100352"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148183614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes of ecological vulnerability under different wetland change patterns: A case study of the transboundary Heilongjiang (Amur) River Basin","authors":"Xinyuan WANG ,&nbsp;Fujia LI ,&nbsp;Hao CHENG ,&nbsp;Kirill GANZEY ,&nbsp;Dashtseren AVIRMED ,&nbsp;Ruofan ZHAO ,&nbsp;Li CHEN ,&nbsp;Aohan LEI","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100351","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100351","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wetlands are among the most biodiverse and productive ecosystems on the Earth, playing crucial roles in maintaining ecosystem services and achieving sustainable development goals. However, global wetlands have experienced dramatic declines and faced numerous ecological risks over recent decades. The Heilongjiang (Amur) River Basin (HARB) represents a critical wetland distribution area in the mid- and high-latitude zones of the Northern Hemisphere and is a globally significant transboundary river basin; however, it also faces risks of wetland degradation. In this study, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological vulnerability in the transboundary HARB under different wetland change modes (including expansion, stable, and degradation) during 1990–2020 using the exposure–sensitivity–adaptation framework. The Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation method and Analytic Hierarchy Process model were adopted to determine indicator weights; spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to identify spatial clustering patterns, and the GeoDetector model was employed to detect the core driving factors. The main results are as follows: (1) mean ecological vulnerability index (EVI) of the HARB increased from 30.50 in 1990 to 33.10 in 2000 and declined to 31.00 by 2020, and high EVI values were primarily located in the western and southern regions of the basin; (2) significant differences in EVI were found among China, Mongolia, and Russia, with Mongolia exhibiting the highest EVI, followed by China and then Russia; (3) soil conservation amount had the highest explanatory power, accounting for 63.18% of EVI variation, followed by net primary productivity and habitat quality index; and (4) compared with non-wetland areas, wetland areas exhibited significantly higher EVI, and wetland expansion areas also showed higher EVI than wetland stable and degradation areas. These findings provide a reference framework for evaluating wetland-related ecological vulnerability and offer valuable insights into the sustainable management of similar transboundary river basins worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"7 3","pages":"Article 100351"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148183737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of regional agriculture on economic development: A reflection from Lincolnshire, the United Kingdom","authors":"Saul NGARAVA","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100353","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100353","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agriculture is a crucial pillar for economic growth, food security, and trade, therefore, it is necessary to study how the performance of agriculture affects the overall situation of a country. This study assessed the extent to which agricultural production in Lincolnshire shapes the agricultural performance of the United Kingdom (UK) and contributes to the economic development of the country. This study used the Chow test and parsimonious vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyze data (Gross Value Added (GVA) for agriculture in Lincolnshire during 1997–2023, and GVA for agriculture in the UK, gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK, and agricultural trade balance (ATB) in the UK during 1990–2023) sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT), Office of National Statistics, Statistica, and the UK Government. The results indicated that GVA for agriculture in Lincolnshire accounted for 4.30%–6.90% of the national GVA for agriculture during 1997–2023, and it increased by 57.20% during the study period. Structural break analysis revealed statistically significant breaks of GVA for agriculture in Lincolnshire at 5%, 10%, and 1% significance levels in 2004, 2008, and 2013, respectively. The current level of GVA for agriculture in Lincolnshire was negatively influenced by the GDP level of previous two years and positively influenced by the ATB level of previous one year. In conclusion, GVA for agriculture in Lincolnshire was strongly endogenous, whereas GDP and ATB were weakly exogenous with respect to GVA for agriculture. Furthermore, GVA for agriculture, GDP, and ATB in the UK exerted asymmetric effects on GVA for agriculture in Lincolnshire. This study recommends leveraging the governance opportunities presented by devolution to provide sustained support for agricultural production through mechanisms analogous to the Common Agricultural Policy, particularly in relation to subsidy provision. Devolution can further promote local consumption through targeted campaigns and may serve as a foundation for developing Lincolnshire-specific policies that can strengthen agricultural production and export.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"7 3","pages":"Article 100353"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148183615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal dynamics of land surface temperature in Yunnan, China: Interpreting multi-temporal drivers using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)","authors":"Chaolian LIAO ,&nbsp;Xudong HE ,&nbsp;Xiaomin LONG ,&nbsp;Ailing WAN ,&nbsp;Ruliang ZHOU ,&nbsp;Yanxia WANG","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100350","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100350","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid global warming, mountainous regions have emerged as critical zones of investigation owing to their heightened vulnerability to climate change, their ecological significance, and the intensified interactions between natural stress and human activities. Land surface temperature (LST) is a fundamental indicator for assessing climatic sensitivity in these landscapes. However, a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of LST across large mountainous regions remains limited. Therefore, data from the Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Land Surface Temperature/Emissivity Daily (MOD11A1) Version 6.1 product during 2001–2020 in Yunnan Province (a complex mountainous region), China, were analyzed. Sen’s slope analysis and Mann-Kendall test were applied to detect LST trends and spatial heterogeneity at both annual and seasonal scales. Subsequently, an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model coupled with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was employed to clarify the nonlinear contributions of multiple drivers. The study revealed the following findings. LST exhibited an overall warming rate of 0.020°C/a, characterized by daytime cooling (–0.008°C/a) and nighttime warming (0.048°C/a). LST increased during spring, summer, and autumn (0.011°C/a–0.018°C/a), whereas winter LST exhibited a cooling trend (–0.011°C/a). These variations were spatially partitioned by the Ailao Mountains, with the southwest displaying stronger thermal changes than the northeast. Natural controls, including digital elevation model (DEM) and downward shortwave radiation (DSR), predominated in the northwest high mountain canyons area and south tropical rainforest area, whereas nature–human interactions were more pronounced in the central urban agglomeration warming area and southeast karst landform area. The dominant drivers consisted of DEM, DSR, Normalized Difference Moisture Index, particulate matter 2.5 (PM_2.5), and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The strong correlations between gross domestic product and population density (correlation coefficient (<em>r</em>)=0.95), as well as between PM_2.5 and AOD (<em>r</em>=0.84), highlighted the increasing influence of socioeconomic factors on surface warming. This study can advance the understanding of how mountain topography, moisture, and anthropogenic pressures jointly regulate surface thermal regimes and provide region-specific insights for climate adaptation and sustainable ecosystem management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"7 3","pages":"Article 100350"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148183733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Broadband China Policy can alleviate city-level carbon inequality in China","authors":"Mengbing DU ,&nbsp;Caijing ZHANG ,&nbsp;Ning QIU ,&nbsp;Zhe ZHANG ,&nbsp;Wen LI ,&nbsp;Wanyue SHAN ,&nbsp;Li ZHANG","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100349","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100349","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the role of digital infrastructure development in shaping carbon inequality (CI) is critical for promoting environmental equity in the digital era. While the digital infrastructure has expanded rapidly in China, its environmental implications remain ambiguous. This study investigated the impact of the Broadband China Policy (BCP) on city-level CI using a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) approach with data from 2005 to 2022. Results showed that the implementation of the BCP led to a 7.2% average reduction in CI. This effect operated through two key mechanisms: industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation. While cities in the eastern region reduced CI mainly through upgrading from carbon-intensive secondary industries to less carbon-intensive tertiary sectors, cities in the non-eastern region benefited from enhanced technological innovation. These region-specific pathways underscore the adaptive potential of digital infrastructure in fostering inclusive green development. These findings highlight the role of digitalization as a transformative platform for environmental equity, offering theoretical and policy-relevant insights for designing targeted, region-sensitive strategies that integrate digital and low-carbon transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"7 3","pages":"Article 100349"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148183731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sustainable three-dimensional (3D) space optimization in high-density urban areas: Drivers, synergies, and multi-method insights","authors":"Bowen KONG ,&nbsp;Haoxuan LIU ,&nbsp;Luyao ZHANG ,&nbsp;Chun’an TANG ,&nbsp;Baoping ZOU","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100348","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100348","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Spatial conflicts in high-density urban areas impede sustainable development, therefore, such cities urgently require sustainable three-dimensional (3D) space optimization. However, existing studies lack a systematic understanding of driving factors and stakeholder differences. This study established an integrated framework using grounded theory analysis of stakeholder interviews, a bibliometric review of academic literature, and system dynamic model and identified five core drivers (regional suitability, human-centred philosophy, innovative design, management capacity, and transformative technology) for sustainable 3D space optimization in high-density urban areas of Zhejiang Province, China. We compared word frequency counts from interviews using co-occurrence analysis in the literature to highlight divergent stakeholder priorities. Word frequency analysis revealed that residents mentioned keywords about human-centred philosophy approximately three times more frequently than experts, highlighting notable divergences in priorities among the stakeholders. Moreover, while co-occurrence analysis identified management capacity as a central theme in scholarly discourse, word frequency analysis ranked it the last among practitioners, underscoring a notable academic–practical difference. Ultimately, based on grounded theory and co-occurrence analyses, we developed a conceptual framework reflecting the relationships between the five core factors and their internal functions. This framework integrates urban research methodologies, providing planners with flexible tools and suggesting the formulation of policies based on actual circumstances, to achieve sustainable development in high-density urban areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"7 3","pages":"Article 100348"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148183736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risks of snow drought and impacts on streamflow in Tajikistan","authors":"Yupeng LI ,&nbsp;Yaning CHEN ,&nbsp;Fei WANG ,&nbsp;Xiang ZHANG ,&nbsp;Qifei ZHANG ,&nbsp;Fan SUN ,&nbsp;Gonghuan FANG ,&nbsp;Safarkhon SHAROFIDDINOV ,&nbsp;Jafar NIYAZOV","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100298","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100298","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tajikistan, a mountainous country and a vital water tower for Central Asia, is becoming increasingly vulnerable to snow drought under climate change, threatening its snow- and glacier-fed streamflow. Yet, the impacts of snow drought on the regional hydrology remain insufficiently understood. In this study, we integrated multisource data, including the Fifth Generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Reanalysis for Land Applications (ERA5-Land) data and hydrological station data, to systematically assess the snow drought patterns and their impacts on streamflow during 1950–2023. We identified snow drought events based on precipitation and snow fraction anomalies relative to climatological means and classified them into warm snow drought, dry snow drought, and warm&amp;dry snow drought. The results revealed that snow drought was a recurrent phenomenon, occurring in 51.70% of the years during the study period, with warm&amp;dry snow drought accounting for 21.90% of the total events. Both the frequency and severity exhibited pronounced spatial variability, largely governed by the elevation and snowfall fraction. Specifically, the frequency of warm snow drought was negatively correlated with the snowfall fraction, decreasing on average by 0.20 per unit increase in snowfall fraction, whereas the frequency of dry snow drought was positively correlated, increasing by 0.07 per unit increase. The streamflow analysis results demonstrated that snow drought typically reduced the warm-season discharge by 5.00%–18.00% in certain rivers, thereby exacerbating the water stress during the dry season. The results of this study advance our understanding by explicitly linking the types of snow drought to hydrological responses in Central Asia’s high mountains, providing a scientific basis for climate adaptation and sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"7 1","pages":"Article 100298"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146070918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of runoff in Tajikistan and its driving mechanisms under climate change","authors":"Chunlan LI ,&nbsp;Yang YU ,&nbsp;Lingxiao SUN ,&nbsp;Jing HE ,&nbsp;Yuanbo LU ,&nbsp;Zengkun GUO ,&nbsp;Gonghuan FANG ,&nbsp;Alexandr ULMAN ,&nbsp;Vitaliy SALNIKOV ,&nbsp;Ireneusz MALIK ,&nbsp;Małgorzata WISTUBA","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100297","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100297","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024, this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation, Mann–Kendall (M–K) trend test, as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analyses to systematically examine the spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and its climatic driving mechanisms across Tajikistan, providing a scientific basis for sustainable water resource utilization and management in the study area. Results indicated that during 2000–2024, the annual runoff in Tajikistan exhibited statistically non-significant long-term trend (<em>P</em>=0.76), while displaying pronounced seasonal variability and strong spatial heterogeneity. Spring and summer average runoff primarily exhibited slight declining tendencies, while winter average runoff exhibited pronounced reduction in localized regions, such as the Syr Darya Basin, the Vakhsh River Basin, and the lower reaches of the Zeravshan River Basin. Precipitation emerged as the dominant positive driver of runoff, exhibiting moderate to strong positive correlations across over 78.00% of the country, whereas potential evapotranspiration consistently functioned as a negative driver. Rising temperatures exerted a dual competitive effect on runoff: in high-elevation, glacier-covered regions, rising temperatures temporarily increased runoff by accelerating glacier melt; however, at the national scale, the negative impact of rising temperature on runoff has played a slightly dominant role to a certain extent by enhancing evapotranspiration. Collectively, these results indicated that the present stability of runoff in Tajikistan is strongly dependent on the short-term compensatory effects of glacier melt and the risk of future runoff decline is likely to intensify as glacier reserves continue to diminish. This study provides a critical scientific evidence to inform sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan and underscores the need for glacier conservation and integrated water resource management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"7 1","pages":"Article 100297"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146070917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}