Regional Sustainability最新文献

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Application of Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model for urban green infrastructure in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 元胞自动机和马尔可夫链模型在马来西亚吉隆坡城市绿色基础设施中的应用
Regional Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100179
Jafarpour Ghalehteimouri Kamran, Che Ros Faizah, Rambat Shuib
{"title":"Application of Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model for urban green infrastructure in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia","authors":"Jafarpour Ghalehteimouri Kamran,&nbsp;Che Ros Faizah,&nbsp;Rambat Shuib","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100179","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100179","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Kuala Lumpur of Malaysia, as a tropical city, has experienced a notable decline in its critical urban green infrastructure (UGI) due to rapid urbanization and haphazard development. The decrease of UGI, especially natural forest and artificial forest, may reduce the diversity of ecosystem services and the ability of Kuala Lumpur to build resilience in the future. This study analyzed land use and land cover (LULC) and UGI changes in Kuala Lumpur based on Landsat satellite images in 1990, 2005, and 2021and employed the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient to assess classification accuracy. LULC was categorized into six main types: natural forest, artificial forest, grassland, water body, bare ground, and built-up area. Satellite images in 1990, 2005, and 2021 showed the remarkable overall accuracy values of 91.06%, 96.67%, and 98.28%, respectively, along with the significant Kappa coefficient values of 0.8997, 0.9626, and 0.9512, respectively. Then, this study utilized Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model to analyze the transition of different LULC types during 1990–2005 and 1990–2021 and predict LULC types in 2050. The results showed that natural forest decreased from 15.22% to 8.20% and artificial forest reduced from 18.51% to 15.16% during 1990–2021. Reductions in natural forest and artificial forest led to alterations in urban surface water dynamics, increasing the risk of urban floods. However, grassland showed a significant increase from 7.80% to 24.30% during 1990–2021. Meanwhile, bare ground increased from 27.16% to 31.56% and built-up area increased from 30.45% to 39.90% during 1990–2005. In 2021, built-up area decreased to 35.10% and bare ground decreased to 13.08%, indicating a consistent dominance of built-up area in the central parts of Kuala Lumpur. This study highlights the importance of integrating past, current, and future LULC changes to improve urban ecosystem services in the city.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"5 4","pages":"Article 100179"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143141691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Livelihood vulnerability of indigenous people to climate change around the Kerinci Seblat National Park in Bengkulu, Indonesia 印度尼西亚明古鲁Kerinci Seblat国家公园周围土著人民生计对气候变化的脆弱性
Regional Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100181
Septri Widiono , Ekawati Sri Wahyuni , Lala M. Kolopaking , Arif Satria
{"title":"Livelihood vulnerability of indigenous people to climate change around the Kerinci Seblat National Park in Bengkulu, Indonesia","authors":"Septri Widiono ,&nbsp;Ekawati Sri Wahyuni ,&nbsp;Lala M. Kolopaking ,&nbsp;Arif Satria","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100181","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100181","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Indigenous people around the Kerinci Seblat National Park (KSNP), Indonesia, have a high dependence on forest resources as their main source of livelihood. This study addressed the vulnerability of Rejang indigenous people around the KSNP to climate change. The popular livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) model was adapted by adding and modifying subcomponents suitable for the study area. Primary data were collected through household surveys in two communities: Embong and Topos. In total, 146 samples were selected for this study using stratified random sampling. The results showed that Embong was more vulnerable to climate change than Topos. Embong exhibited a higher level of vulnerability to the effects of socio-demographic profile, social network, health, and natural disasters and climate variability, whereas Topos was more vulnerable to livelihood strategy, food, and water. Furthermore, Embong was more exposed to natural disasters and climate variability than Topos, but it demonstrated higher adaptive capacity and lower sensitivity than Topos. Nevertheless, socio-demographic profile influenced adaptive capacity in both communities. Sensitivity was influenced most by health in Embong, and sensitivity was influenced most by food in Topos. Although the vulnerability levels were not high in the two communities, several subcomponents must be specifically considered. Overall, this study can help the government make informed decisions to enhance adaptive capacity of the KSNP to climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"5 4","pages":"Article 100181"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143141687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Relationship between drought and soil erosion based on the normalized differential water index (NDWI) and revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model 基于归一化差分水分指数(NDWI)和修正通用水土流失方程(RUSLE)模型的干旱与土壤侵蚀关系
Regional Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100183
Muhammad Rendana , Wan Mohd Razi Idris , Febrinasti Alia , Supli Effendi Rahim , Muhammad Yamin , Muhammad Izzudin
{"title":"Relationship between drought and soil erosion based on the normalized differential water index (NDWI) and revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model","authors":"Muhammad Rendana ,&nbsp;Wan Mohd Razi Idris ,&nbsp;Febrinasti Alia ,&nbsp;Supli Effendi Rahim ,&nbsp;Muhammad Yamin ,&nbsp;Muhammad Izzudin","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100183","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100183","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Langat River Basin in Malaysia is vulnerable to soil erosion risks because of its exposure to intensive land use activities and its topography, which primarily consists of steep slopes and mountainous areas. Furthermore, climate change frequently exposes this basin to drought, which negatively affects soil and water conservation. However, recent studies have rarely shown how soil reacts to drought, such as soil erosion. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the relationship between drought and soil erosion in the Langat River Basin. We analyzed drought indices using Landsat 8 satellite images in November 2021, and created the normalized differential water index (NDWI) via Landsat 8 data to produce a drought map. We used the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model to predict soil erosion. We verified an association between the NDWI and soil erosion data using a correlation analysis. The results revealed that the southern and northern regions of the study area experienced drought events. We predicted an average annual soil erosion of approximately 58.11 t/(hm<sup>2</sup>•a). Analysis of the association between the NDWI and soil erosion revealed a strong positive correlation, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.86. We assumed that the slope length and steepness factor was the primary contributor to soil erosion in the study area. As a result, these findings can help authorities plan effective measures to reduce the impacts of drought and soil erosion in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"5 4","pages":"Article 100183"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143141688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of geopolitical risk, GDP, inflation, interest rate, and trade openness on foreign direct investment: Evidence from five Southeast Asian countries 地缘政治风险、GDP、通货膨胀、利率和贸易开放对外国直接投资的影响:来自东南亚五国的证据
Regional Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100177
Md. Shaddam Hossain, Liton Chandra Voumik, Tahsin Tabassum Ahmed, Mehnaz Binta Alam, Zabin Tasmim
{"title":"Impact of geopolitical risk, GDP, inflation, interest rate, and trade openness on foreign direct investment: Evidence from five Southeast Asian countries","authors":"Md. Shaddam Hossain,&nbsp;Liton Chandra Voumik,&nbsp;Tahsin Tabassum Ahmed,&nbsp;Mehnaz Binta Alam,&nbsp;Zabin Tasmim","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100177","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100177","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Historically, geopolitical risk (GPR) has posed significant challenges to international economic, social, and political frameworks. This study investigated how internal GPR in the selected five Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand) influences foreign direct investment (FDI) during 1996–2019. The stationarity of the data was assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, which shows that the data became stationary after the first difference. The Kao, Pedroni, and Westerlund cointegration tests were employed to examine long-term cointegration among the selected variables (FDI, GPR index (GPRI), gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, interest rate, and trade openness (TOP)). The results indicated that these variables have a long-term cointegration. Consequently, regression analysis using the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, fixed effect, random effect, Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation, and system generalized moment method (GMM) revealed that GPRI and TOP negatively impacted FDI in the selected five Southeast Asian countries. At the same time, GDP, inflation, and interest rate positively influenced FDI in these countries. Because FDI is crucial to shaping a country’s macroeconomic structure, this study recommends that governments and central banks of the selected five Southeast Asian countries should implement policies and strategies to encourage foreign investments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"5 4","pages":"Article 100177"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143141683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Tanzania 坦桑尼亚新城市规划过程中的气候变化脆弱性评估
Regional Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100155
Issa Nyashilu , Robert Kiunsi , Alphonce Kyessi
{"title":"Climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Tanzania","authors":"Issa Nyashilu ,&nbsp;Robert Kiunsi ,&nbsp;Alphonce Kyessi","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100155","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100155","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change vulnerability assessment is an essential tool for identifying regions that are most susceptible to the impacts of climate change and designing effective adaptation actions that can reduce vulnerability and enhance long-term resilience of these regions. This study explored a framework for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Jangwani Ward, Tanzania. Specifically, taking flood as an example, this study highlighted the steps and methods for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process. In the study area, 95 households were selected and interviewed through purposeful sampling. Additionally, 10 respondents (4 females and 6 males) were interviewed for Focus Group Discussion (FGD), and 3 respondents (1 female and 2 males) were selected for Key Informant Interviews (KII) at the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development. This study indicated that climate change vulnerability assessment framework involves the assessment of climatic hazards, risk elements, and adaptive capacity, and the determination of vulnerability levels. The average hazard risk rating of flood was 2.3. Socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructures both had the average risk element rating of 3.0, and ecosystems had the average risk element rating of 2.9. Adaptive capacity ratings of knowledge, technology, economy or finance, and institution were 1.6, 1.9, 1.4, and 2.2, respectively. The vulnerability levels of socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructure were very high (4.0). Ecosystems had a high vulnerability level (3.8) to flood. The very high vulnerability level of socioeconomic and livelihood activities was driven by high exposure and sensitivity to risk elements and low adaptive capacity. The study recommends adoption of the new urban planning process including preparation, planning, implementation, and monitoring-evaluation-review phases that integrates climate change vulnerability assessment in all phases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"5 3","pages":"Article 100155"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142357710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding factors affecting non-participants’ interest in community-supported agriculture 了解影响非参与者对社区支持农业兴趣的因素
Regional Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100160
Maula Fadhilata Rahmatika, Agus Suman, Wildan Syafitri, Sri Muljaningsih
{"title":"Understanding factors affecting non-participants’ interest in community-supported agriculture","authors":"Maula Fadhilata Rahmatika,&nbsp;Agus Suman,&nbsp;Wildan Syafitri,&nbsp;Sri Muljaningsih","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100160","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100160","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Community-supported agriculture (CSA) has emerged as a viable solution for addressing the agricultural challenges faced by countries like Indonesia. This study uses the well-established unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT2) model to examine the interest in CSA of potential customers in Indonesia. A standardized questionnaire was distributed to 1200 respondents, and the data were analyzed using structural equation model-partial least square (SEM-PLS) in SmartPLS 4.0 software. The results capture potential CSA consumer interest and will help to improve CSA development strategies in Indonesia. The model explains 44.4% of customers’ intentions, and identifies performance expectancy as the decisive factor in customers’ willingness to participate in CSA. Performance expectancy (0.292), hedonic motivation (0.262), social influence (0.259), and facilitating conditions (0.086) positively influence customers’ interest in participating in a CSA program. The adoption of CSA programs by both farmers and customers could be increased by implementing regulations that provide tax incentives and subsidies, offering training on sustainable farming practices, facilitating the establishment of distribution channels, and establishing guidelines for fair price and quality standards. This study shows the high potential for the implementation of CSA in Indonesia. It could also be used as a foundation for the development of new policies regarding sustainable agriculture markets in Indonesia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"5 3","pages":"Article 100160"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142357718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Characteristics and drivers of the soil multifunctionality under different land use and land cover types in the drylands of China 中国旱地不同土地利用和土地覆盖类型下土壤多功能性的特征和驱动因素
Regional Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100162
Song Boyi , Zhang Shihang , Lu Yongxing , Guo Hao , Guo Xing , Wang Mingming , Zhang Yuanming , Zhou Xiaobing , Zhuang Weiwei
{"title":"Characteristics and drivers of the soil multifunctionality under different land use and land cover types in the drylands of China","authors":"Song Boyi ,&nbsp;Zhang Shihang ,&nbsp;Lu Yongxing ,&nbsp;Guo Hao ,&nbsp;Guo Xing ,&nbsp;Wang Mingming ,&nbsp;Zhang Yuanming ,&nbsp;Zhou Xiaobing ,&nbsp;Zhuang Weiwei","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100162","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100162","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The drylands of China cover approximately 6.6×10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup> and are home to approximately 5.8×10<sup>8</sup> people, providing important ecosystem services for human survival and development. However, dryland ecosystems are extremely fragile and sensitive to external environmental changes. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes significantly impact soil structure and function, thus affecting the soil multifunctionality (SMF). However, the effect of LULC changes on the SMF in the drylands of China has rarely been reported. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of the SMF changes based on soil data in the 1980s from the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center. We explored the drivers of the SMF changes under different LULC types (including forest, grassland, shrubland, and desert) and used structural equation modeling to explore the main driver of the SMF changes. The results showed that the SMF under the four LULC types decreased in the following descending order: forest, grassland, shrubland, and desert. The main driver of the SMF changes under different LULC types was mean annual temperature (MAT). In addition to MAT, pH in forest, soil moisture (SM) and soil biodiversity index in grassland, SM in shrubland, and aridity index in desert are crucial factors for the SMF changes. Therefore, the SMF in the drylands of China is regulated mainly by MAT and pH, and comprehensive assessments of the SMF in drylands need to be performed regarding LULC changes. The results are beneficial for evaluating the SMF among different LULC types and predicting the SMF under global climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"5 3","pages":"Article 100162"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142357720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climatic and non-climatic factors driving the livelihood vulnerability of smallholder farmers in Ahafo Ano North District, Ghana 加纳阿哈福阿诺北区小农生计脆弱性的气候和非气候因素
Regional Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100157
Frank Baffour-Ata , Louisa Boakye , Moses Tilatob Gado , Ellen Boakye-Yiadom , Sylvia Cecilia Mensah , Senyo Michael Kwaku Kumfo , Kofi Prempeh Osei Owusu , Emmanuel Carr , Emmanuel Dzikunu , Patrick Davies
{"title":"Climatic and non-climatic factors driving the livelihood vulnerability of smallholder farmers in Ahafo Ano North District, Ghana","authors":"Frank Baffour-Ata ,&nbsp;Louisa Boakye ,&nbsp;Moses Tilatob Gado ,&nbsp;Ellen Boakye-Yiadom ,&nbsp;Sylvia Cecilia Mensah ,&nbsp;Senyo Michael Kwaku Kumfo ,&nbsp;Kofi Prempeh Osei Owusu ,&nbsp;Emmanuel Carr ,&nbsp;Emmanuel Dzikunu ,&nbsp;Patrick Davies","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100157","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100157","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Smallholder farmers in Ahafo Ano North District, Ghana, face multiple climatic and non-climatic issues. This study assessed the factors contributing to the livelihood vulnerability of smallholder farmers in this district by household surveys with 200 respondents and focus group discussions (FGDs) with 10 respondents. The Mann–Kendall trend test was used to assess mean annual rainfall and temperature trends from 2002 to 2022. The relative importance index (RII) value was used to rank the climatic and non-climatic factors perceived by respondents. The socioeconomic characteristics affecting smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climatic and non-climatic factors were evaluated by the binary logistic regression model. Results showed that mean annual rainfall decreased (<em>P</em>&gt;0.05) but mean annual temperature significantly increased (<em>P</em>&lt;0.05) from 2002 to 2022 in the district. The key climatic factors perceived by smallholder farmers were extreme heat or increasing temperature (RII=0.498), erratic rainfall (RII=0.485), and increased windstorms (RII=0.475). The critical non-climatic factors were high cost of farm inputs (RII=0.485), high cost of healthcare (RII=0.435), and poor condition of roads to farms (RII=0.415). Smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climatic and non-climatic factors were significantly affected by their socioeconomic characteristics (<em>P</em>&lt;0.05). This study concluded that these factors negatively impact the livelihoods and well-being of smallholder farmers and socioeconomic characteristics influence their perceptions of these factors. Therefore, to enhance the resilience of smallholder farmers to climate change, it is necessary to adopt a comprehensive and context-specific approach that accounts for climatic and non-climatic factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"5 3","pages":"Article 100157"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142357708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural production in central Afghanistan 评估气候变化对阿富汗中部农业生产的影响
Regional Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100156
Homayoon Raoufi , Hamidreza Jafari , Wakil Ahmad Sarhadi , Esmail Salehi
{"title":"Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural production in central Afghanistan","authors":"Homayoon Raoufi ,&nbsp;Hamidreza Jafari ,&nbsp;Wakil Ahmad Sarhadi ,&nbsp;Esmail Salehi","doi":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100156","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100156","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Afghanistan has faced extreme climatic crises such as drought, rising temperature, and scarce precipitation, and these crises will likely worsen in the future. Reduction in crop yield can affect food security in Afghanistan, where the majority of population and economy are completely dependent on agriculture. This study assessed the interaction between climate change and crop yield in Kabul of Afghanistan during the reference (1990–2020) and future (2025–2100) periods. Climate data (1990–2020) were collected from four meteorological stations and three local organizations, and wheat yield data (1990–2020) were acquired from the United States Agriculture Department. Data during the reference period (1990–2020) were used for the validation and calibration of the statistical downscaling models such as the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). Furthermore, the auto-regression model was used for trend analysis. The results showed that an increase in the average annual temperature of 2.15°C, 2.89°C, and 4.13°C will lead to a reduction in the wheat yield of 9.14%, 10.20%, and 12.00% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 during the future period (2025–2100), respectively. Moreover, an increase in the annual maximum temperature of 1.79°C, 2.48°C, and 3.74°C also causes a significant reduction in the wheat yield of 2.60%, 3.60%, and 10.50% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Furthermore, an increase in the annual minimum temperature of 2.98°C, 2.23°C, and 4.30°C can result in an increase in the wheat yield of 6.50%, 4.80%, and 9.30% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. According to the SDSM, the decrease of the average monthly precipitation of 4.34%, 4.10%, and 5.13% results in a decrease in the wheat yield of 2.60%, 2.36%, and 3.18% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. This study suggests that adaptation strategies can be applied to minimize the consequences of climate change on agricultural production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34395,"journal":{"name":"Regional Sustainability","volume":"5 3","pages":"Article 100156"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142357717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Employment and development levels in rural areas of the Russian Federation 俄罗斯联邦农村地区的就业和发展水平
Regional Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100164
Guzel Salimova , Gulnara Nigmatullina , Gamir Habirov , Alisa Ableeva , Rasul Gusmanov
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