Water Cycle最新文献

{"title":"Ensemble machine learning for meteorological drought assessment and forecasting with satellite and climate data (Urmia Lake basin, Iran)","authors":"Sima Kazempour Choursi ,&nbsp;Mahdi Erfanian ,&nbsp;Hirad Abghari ,&nbsp;Mirhassan Miryaghoubzadeh ,&nbsp;Khadijeh Javan","doi":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2026.02.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2026.02.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study assesses the ability of satellite, meteorological, and climate teleconnection indices to forecast drought at 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month intervals in the Urmia Lake basin (ULB) using machine learning models. Data sources include TRMM precipitation, MODIS-derived NDVI and daytime land surface temperature (LST_day), gridded potential evapotranspiration (PET), and large-scale indices (MEI, SOI, AMO, NAO) from 2001 to 2019. The methods compared feature Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and Extremely Randomized Trees (ERT). Model performance was evaluated through cross-validated R-squared, root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE), along with variable importance, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) interpretation, and wavelet coherence analysis. A key finding is that ERT consistently outperformed other algorithms across different accumulation periods, showing superior predictive accuracy (higher R-squared and lower RMSE/MAE) and more consistent cross-validation results; SHAP and wavelet coherence analyses indicate a systematic shift from local drivers (precipitation, NDVI, LST_day) at shorter timescales to teleconnection indices (MEI, AMO, SOI, NAO) at longer ones. Practical implications suggest that the ERT-based framework can support operational drought monitoring and water management in the Basin by integrating satellite data with climate indices to enhance early-warning systems and resource planning. The novelty of this approach lies in integrating multiscale SHAP interpretation and wavelet coherence to elucidate the shift from local to teleconnected drought drivers, offering a transferable framework for basin-scale drought assessment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34143,"journal":{"name":"Water Cycle","volume":"7 ","pages":"Pages 447-472"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147703024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deciphering the algal successional trajectories and ecological regulation mechanisms during the cooling phase: A case study of a eutrophic urban lake","authors":"Xinyue Jv ,&nbsp;Gaofang Yin ,&nbsp;Nanjing Zhao ,&nbsp;Jiajia Xu ,&nbsp;Zhiyong Zhai ,&nbsp;Yao Chen ,&nbsp;Tiannan Huang ,&nbsp;Hengxiang Zhu ,&nbsp;Peng Huang ,&nbsp;Jingze Zhang ,&nbsp;Li Hu ,&nbsp;Qun Ye ,&nbsp;Xiang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2025.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2025.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global rise in eutrophication has brought out various types of algal blooms. However, research on eutrophic lakes has predominantly focused on the risks and drivers of harmful algal blooms (HABs), while spatial and temporal data on algal community dynamics under low-temperature conditions remain limited. This data gap has hindered a comprehensive understanding of algal succession and its ecological effects. Through high-frequency, in-situ, multi-site vertical observations in a typical eutrophic urban lake, this study provides the first systematic analysis of algal community succession across three key dimensions: total algal biomass, community structure, and vertical distribution. The results show a significant decline in Cyanobacteria with decreasing water temperature (WT). However, total average algal concentration (TAC) does not continuously decrease. Instead, it peaks at 47.45 μg/L at 6 °C, due to a relatively high Fv/Fm (0.4–0.6) and a notable increase in Cryptophyta relative abundance (3.88 %–87.20 %). In Stage A (Gradual cooling), a diverse algal community comprising multiple phyla coexists, primarily concentrated in the surface layer (0.4 m), exhibiting clear vertical niche differentiation. As succession progresses (Rapid cooling and Gradual warming), Cryptophyta gradually replace Cyanobacteria, Chlorophyta, and Diatom, occupying their vacated ecological niches and shifting the peak of algal biomass to the mid-water layer (0.8 m). Mantel tests identified synergistic drivers, including WT, algal nutrient availability (TN, TP, COD), and algal competition. Notably, Cryptophyta succession contributed to increased SD and DO levels SD and DO levels, underscoring the role of interspecific competition and succession in maintaining ecosystem stability during WT shifts. Our findings enhance the understanding of algal community succession and their potential role in supporting long-term ecosystem stability, offering insights for aquatic ecosystem restoration and algal bloom management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34143,"journal":{"name":"Water Cycle","volume":"7 ","pages":"Pages 438-446"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147703129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predictive modelling of E. coli dark regrowth after UVC-LED disinfection in different water matrices and temperatures","authors":"M. Martín-Sómer ,&nbsp;J. Moreira ,&nbsp;S. Nahim-Granados ,&nbsp;M.I. Polo-López ,&nbsp;J. Marugán","doi":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2026.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2026.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyses post-treatment <em>Escherichia coli</em> regrowth in drinking water after UVC LED disinfection and proposes a kinetic model to predict it. The model integrates the effects of UVC dose (0.06–0.15 J cm⁻²), storage temperature (15, 20, 25 and 37 °C) and water matrix (wastewater secondary effluent vs isotonic water). Regrowth was monitored for up to 7 days under dark-storage conditions, representative of covered tanks, bottles and enclosed distribution systems where photoreactivation is negligible. The model, fitted to experimental data, achieved a global NRMS Error of 9.38 % for kinetic constants and a NRMSL Error of 19.77 % for bacterial concentrations, indicating good agreement with observations. Results showed an inverse relationship between UVC dose and regrowth, identifying a threshold dose (D0) of 0.129 J cm⁻² above which no detectable increase in bacteria concentration was detected, regardless of temperature or water matrix. Temperature affected regrowth kinetics, with slower proliferation at ≤ 25 °C and rapid recovery at 37 °C, close to the optimal growth temperature for <em>E. coli</em>. The water matrix also influenced outcomes, with lower bacterial recovery in wastewater effluents than in isotonic water. Importantly, the model indicates that ensuring compliance with stringent standards after 7 days of storage may require UVC fluences up to four times higher than those typically recommended based solely on immediate inactivation, highlighting the need to account for regrowth in system design. Overall, the model is a useful tool to assess microbial risks and optimize UVC-based disinfection strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34143,"journal":{"name":"Water Cycle","volume":"7 ","pages":"Pages 505-515"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147944785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A recyclable magnetic piezoelectric composite Fe3O4/SrBi2Ta2O9 for efficient antibiotic removal in water under ball milling","authors":"Dongyi Chen ,&nbsp;Xingsheng Li ,&nbsp;Ning Li ,&nbsp;Zhenjian Zhou ,&nbsp;Zhikui Zhou ,&nbsp;Xiaoyun Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2025.07.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2025.07.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Confronting the significant environmental and public health challenges posed by the escalating threat of antibiotic pollution, piezocatalytic technology has emerged as a promising solution. However, its practical implementation remains constrained by the low degradation efficiency with powdered piezocatalysts, which face the challenge of difficult recovery, as well as the low degradation efficiency caused by the coverage of active sites during the processes of recovery or degradation. Herein, we used the hydrothermal method to load Fe₃O₄ onto SrBi₂Ta₂O₉ (Fe/SBTO). The results demonstrated that Fe/SBTO achieved degradation efficiencies of 96.8% for Oxytetracycline (OTC) and 97.0% for Tetracycline (TC) within 30 min. Its degradation efficiency for OTC was 2.34 times higher than that of SBTO and even 3.13 times higher than that of conventional piezoelectric material T-BaTiO₃. The high degradation efficiency of the material can be attributed to the built-in electric field formed between Fe/SBTO heterojunction under ball milling, which promotes the separation of the piezo-induced charges, thereby enhancing the generation of singlet oxygen and hole. Furthermore, the composite piezocatalyst can be easily recovered using magnets, with a recovery rate of up to 90%. This work presents a promising approach for addressing antibiotic pollution in water and offers insights into enhancing traditional powder materials.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34143,"journal":{"name":"Water Cycle","volume":"7 ","pages":"Pages 48-56"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144756821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synergistic oxidation process (SOP): Toward cost-efficient and environmentally friendly water treatment solutions","authors":"Dao-Qian Chen,&nbsp;Shu-Chang Pang,&nbsp;Jia-Qi Song,&nbsp;Shu-Yu Shi,&nbsp;Nan Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2026.03.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2026.03.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Conventional advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) are constrained by several limitations, including reliance on radical oxidation mechanisms, spatiotemporal constraints on operation, and a narrow focus on pollutant removal. Conceptual limitations constrain the development of AOP. In contrast, the synergistic oxidation process (SOP) achieves multi-mechanism and multi-objective synergy through strategic process design. This review clarifies the concepts of SOP, and its differences from traditional AOPs and combined/integrated AOPs. It introduces typical cases of SOPs and their mechanisms, including pre-chlorination and vacuum UV/UV process for semiconductor wastewater reuse, ozone/UV/chlorine synergistic disinfection, magnetic adsorption-oxidation synergistic process, and the combination of UV/H₂O₂ and biological activated carbon. Through quantitative analysis of the synergistic effects, cost reduction, and risk control of SOP cases, the synergistic mechanisms and advantages of SOPs are highlighted. The design strategy and evaluation framework for SOP are also established. SOP represents a more promising solution for the safe reuse of reclaimed water and for controlling trace contaminants in aquatic environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34143,"journal":{"name":"Water Cycle","volume":"7 ","pages":"Pages 547-553"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148183723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Concepts and classification of disinfection residual bacteria","authors":"Han Liu ,&nbsp;Yin-Hu Wu ,&nbsp;Zhuo Chen ,&nbsp;Ke-Fan Cao ,&nbsp;Heqing Zhang ,&nbsp;Lei Sun ,&nbsp;Nozomu Ikuno ,&nbsp;Kameda Hidekuni","doi":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2025.12.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2025.12.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disinfection serves as a pivotal strategy for safeguarding the microbial safety of reclaimed water. Nevertheless, in practical engineering scenarios, disinfection residual bacteria (DRB) can engender a spectrum of secondary risks, encompassing compromised process efficiency, public health hazards, and ecological disruptions, thereby presenting a formidable obstacle during the wastewater reclamation and reuse. At present, existing concepts fall short of comprehensively characterizing DRB that exhibit diverse survival strategies. Based on the reasons underlying their survival, DRB can be stratified into three subtypes: genotypically resistant bacteria (GRB), phenotypically resistant bacteria (also known as persisters, abbreviated as PRB), and non-resistant residual bacteria (NRB). GRB constitute the predominant proportion among these categories. DRB and NRB primarily highlights the outcome of bacterial survival, an individual trait with strong randomness. Conversely, GRB accentuates the intrinsic properties of bacteria, embodying a population-level trait with genetically encoded heritable resistance. PRB underscores the differential gene expression observed within a subset of individuals belonging to the same bacterial species, thereby constituting a subpopulation characteristic of bacterial cells. This is a phenotypic resistance jointly determined by genetic predispositions and environmental stressors. NRB, devoid of inherent resistance, evade inactivation due to environmental factors, such as physical shielding. Systematic classification of DRB, establishes a robust theoretical framework for the efficient control and risk reduction of these bacteria. This endeavor holds paramount importance for ensuring the microbial safety of reclaimed water, thereby advancing the cause of sustainable water resource management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34143,"journal":{"name":"Water Cycle","volume":"7 ","pages":"Pages 321-325"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147537676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Magnetic FeP/Fe3O4 multi-shell heterostructures for enhanced peroxymonosulfate activation in accelerating tetracycline degradation","authors":"Jiajun Xie ,&nbsp;Xiang Ni ,&nbsp;Pengjun Duan ,&nbsp;Xiaozheng Han ,&nbsp;Yihang Xu ,&nbsp;Tiancai Zhang ,&nbsp;Chaojie Yang ,&nbsp;Xiaowei Yu ,&nbsp;Qiaomei Sun ,&nbsp;Jianzhong Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2026.01.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2026.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Iron-based heterogeneous catalysts have been demonstrated considerable potential in peroxymonosulfate (PMS) activation for the degradation of organic pollutants degradation, yet their catalytic efficiency remains constrained by insufficient active sites and limited electron transfer capability. This study presents a rationally designed magnetic FeP/Fe₃O₄ multi-shell heterostructure which provides abundant active sites, and enhanced electron transfer capability. The FeP/Fe₃O₄/PMS system achieved complete tetracycline (TC) removal within 20 min, exhibiting a pseudo-first-order kinetic constant 5.7-fold greater than that of Fe₂O₃/PMS system. Electrochemical analysis indicates that the FeP/Fe₃O₄ heterostructure substantially enhances current density and catalytic activity compared to the Fe₂O₃/PMS system, primarily through optimized electron transport. Furthermore, its stronger spontaneous PMS adsorption capacity synergistically facilitates the continuous generation of reactive oxygen species, ultimately achieving efficient pollutant degradation. Results indicate that TC was removed via mixed radical and nonradical pathways, and the degradation intermediates and possible degradation pathways were elucidated. In addition, the FeP/Fe₃O₄/PMS system maintained high efficiency and stability across a wide pH range and in complex water conditions, and exhibited broad applicability for the degradation of various organic pollutants. This study provides valuable insights into the design of high-performance iron-based catalysts, and advances the fundamental understanding of the PMS activation mechanisms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34143,"journal":{"name":"Water Cycle","volume":"7 ","pages":"Pages 368-377"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147537711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Diagnosing the causal relationships between groundwater resource characteristics and socio-economic factors in the Heihe river basin, China","authors":"Zheng Lu ,&nbsp;Dehui Ning ,&nbsp;Chunying Shen ,&nbsp;Juan Bai ,&nbsp;Yanghua Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiaokang Kou ,&nbsp;Shasha Meng","doi":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2026.01.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2026.01.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Groundwater systems interact closely with socio-economic processes in arid basins. Quantifying these interactions requires spatial indicators that describe groundwater response and control mechanisms. This study maps high-resolution Groundwater Response Time (GRT) and Water Table Ratio (WTR) across the Heihe River Basin (HRB) using multi-source data. Results show an average GRT of 2.4 × 10⁸ years. About 62 % of the HRB is recharge-controlled (WTR &lt;1) and 38 % is topography-controlled (WTR &gt;1). Both GRT and WTR increase with water table depth. Causal analysis using Geographical Convergent Cross Mapping (GCCM) identifies strong one-way causality from GRT to overall human modification (ρ = 0.88) and ranching (ρ = 0.80), and from WTR to both human modification (ρ = 0.78) and ranching (ρ = 0.68). Agriculture shows reverse causality with GRT (ρ = 0.61), indicating irrigation-induced changes in groundwater response. Population correlates moderately with both GRT and WTR (ρ = 0.55–0.56), while GDP exhibits weaker links. Comparison with global GRT/WTR maps shows that local hydrological variability is higher, reflecting finer-scale responses to land use and climate. The results demonstrate that groundwater regimes constrain socio-economic spatial organization, while agriculture can actively reshape groundwater memory in recharge-responsive zones. The framework provides a transferable approach for diagnosing socio-hydrological coupling and informing risk-stratified groundwater management across arid and semi-arid regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34143,"journal":{"name":"Water Cycle","volume":"7 ","pages":"Pages 422-437"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147600162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhanced microalgae-bacteria symbiosis for domestic garbage leachate treatment: Optimization and life cycle assessment","authors":"Xiaoyan Wang ,&nbsp;Hongkai Zhang ,&nbsp;Yu Hong ,&nbsp;Jinyang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2025.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2025.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Domestic garbage leachate (DGL) poses severe environmental threats due to its complex organic toxins and high chromaticity, limiting conventional treatment efficacy. To overcome these toxicity limitations, this study developed a dual-waste valorization strategy using rural sewage (RS)-diluted DGL for microalgal cultivation via adaptive cultivation. The microalgal density reached 2.88 × 10⁷ cells/mL in the LS5 group diluted 5-fold by RS. Through integrated optimization combining single-factor experiments (culture modes and light spectra) and response surface methodology (cultivation cycle, inoculum density, light intensity), the optimal parameters were determined: mixotrophic cultivation at an initial density of 6.5 × 10⁶ cells/mL in non-sterilized LS5 under continuous white light (2942 lux) for 20 d. Life cycle assessment (LCA) revealed that DGL utilization avoids upstream production burdens associated with conventional nutrients versus conventional medium, with water consumption and energy identified as primary environmental impact contributors. This work demonstrates how technological innovation in waste-to-resource conversion enhances environmental sustainability and circular economy development, with LCA confirming broader ecological advantages beyond localized wastewater treatment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34143,"journal":{"name":"Water Cycle","volume":"7 ","pages":"Pages 267-277"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147448975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating future climate change impacts on streamflow and drought characterization in the Arno River basin, Tuscany, Italy, using CMIP6 and SWAT+ modelling","authors":"Hafeez Ahmed Talpur ,&nbsp;Mohsin Tariq ,&nbsp;Sadaf Nasreen ,&nbsp;Aziz Ahmed ,&nbsp;Shakeel Ahmed Talpur ,&nbsp;Piero Di Carlo","doi":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2026.03.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.watcyc.2026.03.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing future climate change impacts is essential for developing adaptive water resource management strategies in river basins. This study presents an integrated modeling framework combining the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) hydrological model with bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections to assess hydroclimatic changes and drought propagation in the Arno River basin, Tuscany, Italy. We employed five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) bias correction, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) drought indices to examine climate extremes spanning from 2015 to 2100. Results demonstrate: (1) pronounced warming trends with temperature increases of 3 °C under SSP2-4.5 and 5 °C under SSP5-8.5 by century's end; (2) declining precipitation trends at rates of −0.51 mm year⁻¹ and –1.77 mm year⁻¹ for moderate and high emission pathways respectively; (3) streamflow reductions of −0.07 m³ s⁻¹ year⁻¹ and –0.19 m³ s⁻¹ year⁻¹ under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios; and (4) increasing drought severity with total drought duration reaching 99 months for meteorological droughts and 106 months for hydrological droughts under high-emission pathways, compared to historical baselines of 41 and 32 months respectively. Strong correlations (r = 0.80–0.95) between meteorological and hydrological drought indices demonstrate robust drought propagation from precipitation deficits to streamflow reductions. This study provides crucial understanding of hydroclimatic changes, enabling policymakers and water managers to develop resilient strategies for the Arno River basin.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34143,"journal":{"name":"Water Cycle","volume":"7 ","pages":"Pages 554-572"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148231034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}