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EEMD-ARIMA Model for annual precipitation forecasting to aid weather insurance decision-making research EEMD-ARIMA 年降水量预报模型辅助气象保险决策研究
Theoretical and Natural Science Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/39/20240599
Yuyang Xia
{"title":"EEMD-ARIMA Model for annual precipitation forecasting to aid weather insurance decision-making research","authors":"Yuyang Xia","doi":"10.54254/2753-8818/39/20240599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/39/20240599","url":null,"abstract":"Climate risk poses significant threats to human life and property. Climate insurance can effectively mitigate and disperse these risks. This paper addresses the weakness in weather risk prediction for climate insurance formulation by combining Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Four models, namely EMD, EEMD, ARIMA, and EMD-ARIMA, were established for modeling and forecasting Chinas annual precipitation data. The results show that the EEMD-ARIMA model can suppress the modal aliasing problem in time series and has the best fit compared to other models. This model can more accurately describe the variation in annual precipitation in forecasting applications, providing significant predictive value for insurance companies and government decisions regarding insurance and climate risk management.","PeriodicalId":341023,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Natural Science","volume":"43 24","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141800166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The form of consciousness in brain & pathology and treatment of UWS 大脑中的意识形态与 UWS 的病理和治疗
Theoretical and Natural Science Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/45/20240575
Heyuan Liu
{"title":"The form of consciousness in brain & pathology and treatment of UWS","authors":"Heyuan Liu","doi":"10.54254/2753-8818/45/20240575","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/45/20240575","url":null,"abstract":"The study of consciousness, a fundamental aspect of human existence, spans neurobiology, brain science, and psychology. In nested hierarchies in the brain, consciousness is a confluence of wakefulness, arousal, and awareness. Disorders of consciousness, such as the Unresponsive Wakefulness Syndrome (UWS), present profound challenges in the medical domain. UWS patients experience severe disturbances in awareness and reactivity, often due to traumatic or non-traumatic brain injuries. Central to the debate on consciousness is the thalamus, a neural relay pivotal to cognitive function. Recent research emphasizes the thalamuss role in disorders like UWS, particularly when stemming from thalamic injuries. Novel thalamic interventions, like Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS) and Stereotactic Thalamotomy, have been explored for therapeutic potential, showing varying outcomes. The transition towards targeted thalamic treatments, underscored by advanced imaging insights, marks a shift in UWS therapeutic strategies. However, the intricacies of the thalamus and the heterogeneity of UWS necessitate a comprehensive and individualized approach. As researchers delve deeper, the thalamus stands central to potential breakthroughs in restoring consciousness in UWS patients.","PeriodicalId":341023,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Natural Science","volume":"34 44","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141800482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Association between county level industrialization and breast cancer incidence by state in the United States 美国各州县级工业化与乳腺癌发病率之间的关系
Theoretical and Natural Science Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/45/20240678
Zien Lin, Yuchen Wang
{"title":"Association between county level industrialization and breast cancer incidence by state in the United States","authors":"Zien Lin, Yuchen Wang","doi":"10.54254/2753-8818/45/20240678","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/45/20240678","url":null,"abstract":"This ecological study examines the relationship between county-level industrialization and breast cancer incidence in the United States. Here, we used publicly available data on air pollution and breast cancer incidence to investigate the impact of industrialization on the development of breast cancer in the county. This paper used three air pollutants, carbon monoxide, ozone, and nitrogen dioxide, as indicators of the industrialization of counties. The study covered 135 counties from 2015 to 2019. Through statistical analysis and related evaluation, the relationship between the industrialization index and breast cancer incidence and regional distribution was discussed. The ecological design of the study limits the establishment of causality at the individual level. Limitations of the study include considering only three air pollutants as a proxy for industrialization and not taking other potential breast cancer risk factors into account. The results of this study contribute to the existing papers on environmental factors associated with breast cancer risk and have implications for public health and policymaking. Key areas for future research include exploring other pollutants, addressing limitations in study design, and considering other potential risk factors for breast cancer incidence.","PeriodicalId":341023,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Natural Science","volume":"13 24","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141801002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
TESS light curves analysis for 24 hot Jupiters 24 颗热木星的 TESS 光曲线分析
Theoretical and Natural Science Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/43/20240909
Qiyu Li, Rachel H. Yang, Wenrui Zhang, Yuyan Zou, Junzhe Shi
{"title":"TESS light curves analysis for 24 hot Jupiters","authors":"Qiyu Li, Rachel H. Yang, Wenrui Zhang, Yuyan Zou, Junzhe Shi","doi":"10.54254/2753-8818/43/20240909","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/43/20240909","url":null,"abstract":"The precise planet ephemeris can provide useful reference for future investigations and observations. With the continuous data returned by NASA Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), we are able to continuously refine the planets transits. We analyzed the data sent back from TESS as well as other previous data using Mandel & Agol model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) ensemble sampler to obtain the best-fit planetary parameters of 24 hot Jupiters. Our data leads to a detection of orbital-decay for HATS-1b and WASP-19b and each has a decreasing rate of dP/dt=-22.777.49 ms yr^(-1) and dP/dt=-2.950.51 ms yr^(-1) . HATS-1, was detected for the first time to have an orbital decay trend. When analyzing data plots, we came across some special features in light curves, such as periodic smaller dips in the system of WASP-24, leading to the detection of a possible new planet. We hope our findings will provide helpful references for future studies and observations.","PeriodicalId":341023,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Natural Science","volume":"22 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141801063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Detecting adolescent depression in social media: A hierarchical ensemble learning approach 检测社交媒体中的青少年抑郁症:分层集合学习法
Theoretical and Natural Science Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/43/20240763
Tianyu Sheng, Wenzhen Cai, Junlin Huang, Zhaosheng Dong
{"title":"Detecting adolescent depression in social media: A hierarchical ensemble learning approach","authors":"Tianyu Sheng, Wenzhen Cai, Junlin Huang, Zhaosheng Dong","doi":"10.54254/2753-8818/43/20240763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/43/20240763","url":null,"abstract":"As digital landscapes evolve, adolescents increasingly rely on social media platforms for self-expression, leading to the vast dissemination of their mental and emotional states. Amidst the physiological and psychological transitions characteristic of adolescence, there is a heightened risk of depressive disorders. These shifts, coupled with the dynamic nature of their online expressions, create a compelling case for detecting latent signs of depression within their digital footprints. This thesis delves into the intersection of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and adolescent depression detection, introducing an innovative hierarchical ensemble model tailored for the intricate task of identifying depressive markers in adolescent social media content. This model amalgamates traditional word embeddings with state-of-the-art pretrained models, encapsulating both sentence-level and word-level representations. Empirical validation, conducted on a unique dataset centered on adolescent depression detection, indicates the models superior efficacy over existing baselines. By offering an ensemble approach that captures the nuances of adolescent linguistic expressions, this research illuminates the potential for timely and non-intrusive interventions in adolescent mental health.","PeriodicalId":341023,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Natural Science","volume":"13 16","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141801105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Research on novel antibiotics: Bacterial division inhibitors 新型抗生素研究:细菌分裂抑制剂
Theoretical and Natural Science Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/45/20240613
Yaling Shi
{"title":"Research on novel antibiotics: Bacterial division inhibitors","authors":"Yaling Shi","doi":"10.54254/2753-8818/45/20240613","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/45/20240613","url":null,"abstract":"We all know that bacterial infections can cause many diseases, which can affect the normal life of people and even seriously threaten life safety. But now, many antibiotics in use have developed resistance, and the form of antibiotic resistance is becoming more and more serious. Although several treatment methods have been found that can not rely on antibiotics, there are certain shortcomings in terms of cost and treatment effect. So, the hardest but most effective way is to develop new antibiotics. Bacterial division is an important process of bacterial growth and reproduction, and its inhibitors have great potential to become new antibiotics. Therefore, this paper introduces the inhibitors of bacterial division.","PeriodicalId":341023,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Natural Science","volume":"21 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141801294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The energy budget of the Mercury 水星的能量预算
Theoretical and Natural Science Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/43/20240989
Zhitong Zhang
{"title":"The energy budget of the Mercury","authors":"Zhitong Zhang","doi":"10.54254/2753-8818/43/20240989","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/43/20240989","url":null,"abstract":"With the exhaust of the earths energy, people need to find a new place to live. Mercury, one of the planets which is nearest to the earth, its energy budget is valuable to consider about. Energy budget can influence the surface temperature and the climate. If people want to move to any other planets, the energy budget of the planet is one of the things that must be concerned about, as it is directly proportional to the surface temperature of the planet. Plus, if the energy budget of the planet is not appropriate, then there will have no water on the surface or only ice, and moving to that planet is not available. In this studying, the energy budget of the Mercury is made, which is based on the previous research and use a way called Geebitt. This study has found that the income of solar energy of Mercury cannot be attracted by itself, leading to a enormous gap between the surface face to sun and the surface back to it. This research makes contribution to the further research about the Mercury, as it provides the idea and the process to move people to the Mercury.","PeriodicalId":341023,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Natural Science","volume":"31 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141801506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparing the photodynamic treatment of OSCC between natural and artificial photosensitizers 比较天然光敏剂和人工光敏剂对 OSCC 的光动力疗法
Theoretical and Natural Science Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/44/20240954
David Ma
{"title":"Comparing the photodynamic treatment of OSCC between natural and artificial photosensitizers","authors":"David Ma","doi":"10.54254/2753-8818/44/20240954","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/44/20240954","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: Since Verteporfin is the generally accepted photosensitizer for OSCC and other forms of skin cancer. Its synthetic structure and broad range in absorption has made it harmful to both tumor and healthy cells and tissues. The study aims to see whether a natural and herbal extract like Chlorophyllin, used in primarily bladder cancer, can become an alternative to Verteporfin. Methods: This study uses HSC-2 cell lines and mice models. The cancer cells in vitro and in vivo will be treated with increasing amounts and various durations of Chlorophyllin and Verteporfin. Killing in vitro is measured by MTT assay and in vivo is measured by xenograft tumor size. Positive control is Verteporfin, and negative control is DMSO in vitro or saline solution for the xenograft experiment. Possible results: The three main possible results: (1) Chlorophyllin kills more cancer cells in vitro and in vivo and it has less killed normal tissue. (5) Verteporfin kills more cancer cells but also has more damage to normal tissues when compared to Chlorophyllin. (8) Verteporfin kills more cancer cells in vitro and in vivo and it has less killed normal tissue. Conclusion: The results of the study will determine if natural alternatives are worth investing research into as they can be low-cost extraction, low toxicity, and high selectivity of cells to kill. Chlorophyllin can pave the way to more intensive research of natural photosensitizers in different types of cancers.","PeriodicalId":341023,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Natural Science","volume":"3 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141801559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Hurwitz enumeration problem through the perspective of Cayley graph 从 Cayley 图的角度看赫尔维茨枚举问题
Theoretical and Natural Science Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/43/20240777
Hanyu Liu
{"title":"Hurwitz enumeration problem through the perspective of Cayley graph","authors":"Hanyu Liu","doi":"10.54254/2753-8818/43/20240777","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/43/20240777","url":null,"abstract":"The Hurwitz enumeration problem studies how to determine the Hurwitz number for a branch profile, which counts the number of ways a per mutation can be factored into transpositions. In this paper, we consider the length of strictly monotone factorization from the perspective of Cayley graph theory. We represent the factorization problem using a Cayley graph, where vertices are permutations and edges are transpositions. Our focus is proving the unique monotone factorization theorem, which states that for a given permutation, there is only one monotone factorization of minimal length. To prove this, we employ inductive arguments on the structure of the Cayley graph. The key insight is using the connectivity of the graph and properties of shortest paths to characterize the uniqueness of the minimal factorization. This inductive approach allows us to rigorously connect the combinatorial Hurwitz problem to foundational graph concepts. Overall, this paper makes important theoretical advances in enumerating Hurwitz numbers by using Cayley graphs and induction to prove the novel unique monotone factorization theorem. The connections drawn between combinatorics, graphs, and inductive proofs are technically innovative. This theoretical foundation will hopefully stimulate further research into the deep links between the Hurwitz problem and other branches of mathematics.","PeriodicalId":341023,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Natural Science","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141801864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The comparison of sodium sulfacetamide and erythromycin in treating trachoma 硫代乙酰胺钠与红霉素治疗沙眼的比较
Theoretical and Natural Science Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/45/20240533
Junmeng Bu
{"title":"The comparison of sodium sulfacetamide and erythromycin in treating trachoma","authors":"Junmeng Bu","doi":"10.54254/2753-8818/45/20240533","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/45/20240533","url":null,"abstract":"Trachoma is a common eye infection caused by Chlamydia trachomatis and there are many medicines for it already. Erythromycin is a type of antibiotic and sodium sulfacetamide is an antibacterial drug, they are both commonly used for treating trachoma. This passage contrasts the use of sodium sulfacetamide and erythromycin in the concepts of synthesis process, targets, and the resistance built up. Sodium sulfacetamide is a synthesized substance, generally contains 2 steps: prepare sulfacetamide and then let it hydrolysis to form the salt. It works by impede the synthesis of folic acids. If the Chlamydia tachomatis start to get folic acids from host cell, then sodium sulfacetamide cant work any more. Erythromycin is produced by fermentation, it works by bind to ribosomes of the trachoma to impede synthesis of protein. The Chlamydiae can built up resistance by transporting erythromycin out, changing structure of their ribosomes, or destructing the erythromycin molecules. They dont share many things in common, but the importance of them is significant, and they represents the main treatments of trachoma.","PeriodicalId":341023,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Natural Science","volume":"36 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141798762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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