T. O’Kane, Adam A. Scaife, Y. Kushnir, A. Brookshaw, C. Buontempo, David Carlin, Richenda K. Connell, F. Doblas-Reyes, N. Dunstone, Kristian Förster, A. Graça, A. Hobday, V. Kitsios, Larissa van der Laan, Julia F. Lockwood, W. Merryfield, A. Paxian, M. Payne, M. Reader, G. Saville, Doug M. Smith, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, N. Caltabiano, J. Carman, E. Hawkins, N. Keenlyside, Arun Kumar, D. Matei, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Raphael, M. Sparrow, Bo Wu
{"title":"Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions","authors":"T. O’Kane, Adam A. Scaife, Y. Kushnir, A. Brookshaw, C. Buontempo, David Carlin, Richenda K. Connell, F. Doblas-Reyes, N. Dunstone, Kristian Förster, A. Graça, A. Hobday, V. Kitsios, Larissa van der Laan, Julia F. Lockwood, W. Merryfield, A. Paxian, M. Payne, M. Reader, G. Saville, Doug M. Smith, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, N. Caltabiano, J. Carman, E. Hawkins, N. Keenlyside, Arun Kumar, D. Matei, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Raphael, M. Sparrow, Bo Wu","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626","url":null,"abstract":"Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taking place to increase understanding of the processes and mechanisms required to produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction of future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, the predictability of the evolving externally-forced and internally-generated components of the climate system can now be quantified. Decision-makers in key sectors of the economy can now begin to assess the utility of these products for informing climate risk and for planning adaptation and resilience strategies up to a decade into the future. Here, case studies are presented from finance and economics, water management, agriculture and fisheries management demonstrating the emerging utility and potential of operational NTCP to inform strategic planning across a broad range of applications in key sectors of the global economy.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45385923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Isabella Chiaravalloti, Nicolas Theunissen, Shuang Zhang, Jiuyuan Wang, F. Sun, A. A. Ahmed, E. Pihlap, Chris Reinhard, N. Planavsky
{"title":"Mitigation of soil nitrous oxide emissions during maize production with basalt amendments","authors":"Isabella Chiaravalloti, Nicolas Theunissen, Shuang Zhang, Jiuyuan Wang, F. Sun, A. A. Ahmed, E. Pihlap, Chris Reinhard, N. Planavsky","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1203043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1203043","url":null,"abstract":"Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent and long-lived greenhouse gas that accounts for roughly 6% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and it has risen from its preindustrial concentration of 270 ppb N2O to 332 ppb N2O as a result of human activities. The majority of anthropogenic N2O emissions (52–80%) come from agricultural settings due to high rates of reactive nitrogen fertilizer application. Amending soils with fine-grained basalt is gaining traction as a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) pathway, and model simulations suggest that this process may also significantly decrease soil N2O emissions. Here, we continuously measure N2O fluxes from large-scale maize mesocosms in a greenhouse setting and use a machine learning framework to assess the relative importance of the levers on N2O fluxes. We observe significant decreases in cumulative N2O emissions (between 29–32%) from mesocosm systems with basalt addition. We find that basalt application rate, soil pH, and surface soil moisture are the strongest levers on N2O emissions depending on the system settings. These results provide empirical support for a potentially significant co-benefit of deploying enhanced rock weathering of silicates (ERW) on managed lands, particularly those subject to elevated rates of reactive nitrogen input.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44963811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Merewalesi Yee, K. McNamara, Annah E. Piggott-McKellar, C. McMichael
{"title":"Corrigendum: The role of Vanua in climate-related voluntary immobility in Fiji","authors":"Merewalesi Yee, K. McNamara, Annah E. Piggott-McKellar, C. McMichael","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1230600","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1230600","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45944335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Assessment of the impact of climate and non-climatic parameters on cocoa production: a contextual analysis for Cameroon","authors":"Eric Bomdzele, E. Molua","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1069514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1069514","url":null,"abstract":"Agriculture remains the mainstay of Cameroon's economy, with cocoa as one of its key export commodities. However, cocoa production may be affected by climate-related stressors. This study assesses the influence of climate and non-climate parameters on cocoa performance in Cameroon. We use time series data for temperature, rainfall, carbon dioxide emission, land use, labour hours, pesticide application, and cocoa output in Cameroon spanning 60 years (1961 to 2021). Trend analyses reveal a stochastic response of crop production under climate variation. Leveraging on the perennial crop supply response framework, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) reveals short-term climate impacts on cocoa production. The econometric estimation shows that climate and non-climate parameters explain the variations in cocoa output. More specifically, the short-run results reveal that temperature, carbon dioxide emission, land use, and pesticide quantity significantly increase crop yield, whereas rainfall decreases it substantially. Furthermore, the long-run analysis indicates that temperature, rainfall, carbon dioxide emission, and land use are significant negative determinants of the yearly changes in cocoa output. We recommend government policy reforms which address access to land, subsidies/climate finance and improved production technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance farmers' adaptive capacities to climatic stressors.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48866074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Karin André, Åsa Gerger Swartling, Mathilda Englund, L. Petutschnig, Emmanuel M. N. A. N. Attoh, Katharina Milde, Daniel Lückerath, Adeline Cauchy, Tara Botnen Holm, Mari Hanssen Korsbrekke, Muriel Bour, Erich Rome
{"title":"Improving stakeholder engagement in climate change risk assessments: insights from six co-production initiatives in Europe","authors":"Karin André, Åsa Gerger Swartling, Mathilda Englund, L. Petutschnig, Emmanuel M. N. A. N. Attoh, Katharina Milde, Daniel Lückerath, Adeline Cauchy, Tara Botnen Holm, Mari Hanssen Korsbrekke, Muriel Bour, Erich Rome","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1120421","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1120421","url":null,"abstract":"It is increasingly recognized that effective climate risk assessments benefit from well-crafted processes of knowledge co-production involving key stakeholders and scientists. To support the co-production of actionable knowledge on climate change, a careful design and planning process is often called for to ensure that relevant perspectives are integrated and to promote shared understandings and joint ownership of the research process. In this article, we aim to further refine methods for co-producing climate services to support risk-informed decision-support and adaptation action. By drawing on insights and lessons learned from participatory processes in six case studies in Northern and Central Europe, we seek to better understand how associated challenges and opportunities arising in co-production processes play out in different case-specific contexts. All cases have applied a standardized framework for climate vulnerability and risk assessment, the impact chain method. The analysis builds on multiple methods including a survey among case study researchers and stakeholders, interviews with researchers, as well as a project workshop to develop collective insights and synthesize results. The results illustrate case studies' different approaches to stakeholder involvement as well as the outputs, outcomes, and impacts resulting from the risk assessments. Examples include early indications of mutual learning and improved understanding of climate risks, impacts and vulnerability, and local and regional decision contexts, as well as actual uptake in planning and decision contexts. Other outcomes concern scientific progress and contribution to methodological innovations. Overall, our study offers insights into the value of adopting good practices in knowledge co-production in impact chain-based climate risk assessments, with wider lessons for the climate services domain. While collaborations and interactions have contributed to a number of benefits some practical challenges remain for achieving effective co-production processes in the context of climate change and adaptation. To overcome these challenges, we propose a carefully designed but flexible and iterative participatory approach that enables joint learning; reassessment of stakeholder needs and capacities; and co-produced, actionable climate services with the potential to catalyze climate action.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44388835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
John Safari Ziro, Edith Kichamu-Wachira, H. Ross, G. Palaniappan
{"title":"Adoption of climate resilient agricultural practices among the Giriama community in South East Kenya: implications for conceptual frameworks","authors":"John Safari Ziro, Edith Kichamu-Wachira, H. Ross, G. Palaniappan","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1032780","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1032780","url":null,"abstract":"While quantitative studies are robust at assessing the extent of climate change adaptation, and statistical relationships among variables involved, qualitative studies are also essential to understand the social rationales underlying relationships among variables, and to identify the roles of variables that have been overlooked or are hard to measure. This study investigates factors that influence the adoption of climate resilient agricultural practices by resource-poor Giriama farmers in southeast Kenya, with a view to understanding why some smallholders from this cultural group adopt climate resilient practices, while others do not. Data was collected through in-depth interviews with 30 farmers, 15 of whom had adopted climate resilient farming practices recommended by agricultural experts, and 15 of whom had not adopted any of those practices. The adopters were market-oriented, and tended to have individual land tenure, higher levels of experience in farming, slightly larger farm sizes, middle to high school education levels, and be younger. They had access to agricultural extension, access to farm inputs, and their off-farm activities tended to be related to agricultural supply chains. Non-adopters farmed entirely for subsistence, on communal or leased land, had less formal education, and adhered strongly to cultural beliefs and practices. Their off-farm income was unrelated to agriculture. More of the adopters were males, while many of the non-adopters were female. Particular cultural practices and taboos inhibited the adoption of several of the climate resilient practices, such as planting hybrid maize, keeping dairy goats, using improved goats such as the Kenyan Alpine for breeding purposes and the use of water conservation structures for crop production. Further, the qualitative information explains how and why factors such as land ownership, gender, culture, and access to information are interrelated, in ways that are not necessarily obvious in statistical analysis. The study thus highlights issues that need to be considered in conceptual frameworks underpinning both quantitative and qualitative studies, and particularly how they interact, in order to provide the knowledge essential to policy and programs intended to enhance smallholder farmers' adaptive capacity.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43753520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Melinda Morgan, A. Webster, M. Piccarello, Kelly W. Jones, Janie M. Chermak, Laura McCarthy, Jaishri Srinivasan
{"title":"Adaptive governance strategies to address wildfire and watershed resilience in New Mexico's upper Rio Grande watershed","authors":"Melinda Morgan, A. Webster, M. Piccarello, Kelly W. Jones, Janie M. Chermak, Laura McCarthy, Jaishri Srinivasan","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1062320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1062320","url":null,"abstract":"Global climate models project that New Mexico's Upper Rio Grande watershed is expected to become more arid and experience greater climatic and hydrological extremes in the next 50 years. The resulting transitions will have dramatic implications for downstream water users. The Upper Rio Grande and its tributaries provide water to about half of New Mexico's population, including the downstream communities of Albuquerque and Santa Fe, and surrounding agricultural areas. In the absence of formal climate adaptation strategies, informal governance arrangements are emerging to facilitate watershed climate adaptation strategies, including fuel treatments and stream remediation. One example is the Rio Grande Water Fund (RGWF), a collaborative effort coordinating work to protect storage, delivery, and quality of Rio Grande water through landscape-scale forest restoration treatments in tributary forested watersheds. This article examines the RGWF as one example of an emerging adaptation strategy that is working within—and beyond—existing legal and policy frameworks to accomplish more collaborative efforts across jurisdictional lines and administrative barriers. We identified ten (10) key characteristics of adaptive governance from the relevant literature and then applied them to the RGWF's experience in the watershed to date. Key findings include: (1) the RGWF's approach as a collaborative network created the right level of formality while also keeping flexibility in its design, (2) a scalar fit to the environmental challenge built social capital and investment in its work, (3) leadership from key stakeholders leveraged opportunities in the watershed to create and maintain stability, and (4) use of adaptive management and peer review processes built capacity by creating the feedback loops necessary to inform future work.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43555173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}