Frontiers in Climate最新文献

{"title":"Using remote sensing to map degraded mountain peatlands with high climate mitigation potential in Colombia's Central Cordillera","authors":"Michael J. Battaglia, Angela Lafuente, Juan C. Benavides, E. Lilleskov, R. Chimner, L. Bourgeau-Chavez, Patrick Nicolás Skillings-Neira","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1334159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1334159","url":null,"abstract":"Peatlands are the most carbon-dense ecosystems on earth. In tropical mountains, peatlands are numerous and susceptible to rapid degradation and carbon loss after human disturbances. Quantifying where peatlands are located and how they are affected by land use is key in creating a baseline of carbon stocks and greenhouse gas fluxes from tropical mountain peatlands. However, mapping peatlands in the páramo of the Northern Andes is difficult because they are in a topographically complex environment with nearly continuous cloud cover and frequent conversion to pastures or cropland. The goal of this effort was to identify the different types of páramo peatlands and their degradation patterns in the Colombian Central Cordillera. Moderate resolution cloud-free composites of optical imagery, temporal variance in ALOS- PALSAR L-band SAR, Sentinel-1 C-band SAR, and topography data were used as inputs in a machine learning classifier to identify was used to map 12 land cover classes including peatlands with natural vegetation and peatlands converted to pasture. Field data from 507 control points collected across the study area, including information on the vegetation and carbon content on the top 20 cm of the soil, were used to train and validate the classifier. Results show that the use of multiple platforms and image dates, including variance of the radar returns, is necessary for a clear separation of disturbed and undisturbed peatland classes. Peatland area varied across the study region, covering 7% and 20% of the landscape in the northern and southern portions of the study area, respectively. Disturbed peatlands with exotic grasses cover nearly 2% of the area. The overall accuracy of the peatland classes was 82.6%. Disturbed peatlands with exotic grasses had less carbon in the top 20 cm than undisturbed peatlands with natural vegetation. These results highlight the prevalence of peatlands in the tropical Andes and a promising approach to detecting peatlands converted to agriculture. Understanding the distribution and extent of these carbon dense ecosystems can facilitate the restoration and protection of peatlands in the northern Andes, with implications for the future trajectories of the national greenhouse gas inventory.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140250408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing behavioral models of citizens for adapting to and mitigating climate change: a study on four prefectures in Japan","authors":"Eri Aoki, Nobuo Shirai, Kenshi Baba, Naoki Masuhara, Makoto Taniguchi","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1283946","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1283946","url":null,"abstract":"Individual behaviors of citizens are important for implementing the necessary measures for adapting to climate change. However, studies on the adaptive behaviors of ordinary citizens are limited. Therefore, in this study, we developed behavioral models to understand individual behaviors for adaption to and mitigation of climate change. We compared four behavior groups, namely, G1, individual mitigation; G2, individual adaptive; G3, long-term adaptive; and G4, solar-energy system installation behaviors. Following a questionnaire survey for the four behavioral groups, behavioral models were developed using structural equation modeling, which considered psychological factors along with selected attitudes, perceived effectiveness, norms, benefits, practicality, and intention. Furthermore, we considered the recognition and attribution of local climate change as key factors for adaptation behaviors toward local climate change. The behaviors of citizens in four prefectures in Japan, namely, Nagano, Tokyo, Saitama, and Kanagawa were considered. Among them, Nagano Prefecture, wherein the implementation of adaptation measures was at a low level while that of mitigation measures was at a high level, showed a differing trend. In the behavioral models, the recognition of local climate change directly affected the behavior of citizens in the individual adaptive behavior group. In both the individual adaptive and long-term adaptive behavior groups, the impact of benefits was substantial, with significant differences across local areas. Thus, effective adaptation strategies might involve tangible and familiar examples demonstrating the consequences of behavior, thus enhancing citizens' behavior evaluation perception and fostering its acceptance as a desirable behavior. Tailoring adaptation strategies to specific local contexts might also be necessity. To encourage citizens to adapt to climate change and its impacts, we propose two-way efforts, instead of providing one-way information, by supporting citizens to think about self-help and mutual help effectively. Our study can serve as a reference for future studies focusing on citizen behavior about climate change mitigation and enhance their adaptation for locally implemented strategies.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140251373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Human rights law in the development of hydropower projects in transboundary context","authors":"Mara Tignino, Diego Jara","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1280239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1280239","url":null,"abstract":"Human rights obligations are owed by states to the individuals in their territory and under their jurisdiction and may also arise in extraterritorial contexts. This document provides an overview of how various human rights and in particular the human right to safe drinking water and indigenous peoples' rights are related to hydropower development. This analysis, will present available international law tools and mechanisms including river basin organizations and judicial bodies which may conciliate tensions between and within states when the development of hydropower project risk to affect the quantity or the quality of water provided to local and vulnerable communities.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140085459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The linkage between autumn Barents-Kara sea ice and European cold winter extremes","authors":"Di Cai, Gerrit Lohmann, Xianyao Chen, M. Ionita","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1345763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1345763","url":null,"abstract":"While the Arctic's accelerated warming and sea ice decline have been associated with Eurasian cooling, debates persist between those attributing this to sea ice retreat and those to internal variability. Our study examines the association between autumn sea ice variability over the Barents-Kara Seas and extreme cold winters in Europe. Using the observational data and composite analysis, we explore the interannual variability and the potential linkage between sea ice and atmospheric circulation patterns. It reveals a correlation with shifts toward a negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation and more frequent episodes of the atmospheric blocking over Greenland and the North Atlantic. Furthermore, the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and enhanced blocking are closely related and mutually reinforcing, shaping the spatial distribution of cold anomalies over much of the European continent. Our results suggest a link between the unusual decrease in Barents-Kara Sea ice during autumn and the occurrence of intense European weather extremes in subsequent winter months, emphasizing the need for delving deeper into this relationship on monthly time scales to enhance our predictive capabilities for midlatitude extreme events.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140409495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are cities ready for climate change? Exploring the spatial discrepancies between urban vulnerability and adaptation readiness","authors":"Yufeng Yao, Zhejun Zhang, Zucheng Zhang, Fan Meng","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1293651","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1293651","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is an increasingly severe global crisis, posing threats to ecosystems, economies, and human lives. To address these threats, different cities around the world have adopted various levels of adaptation strategies to cope with varying degrees of negative impact, such as increasing water efficiency and enhancing health response systems. Despite some progress, there is a spatial discrepancy among cities in terms of their vulnerability to climate change and their adaptation readiness. Uncovering the reasons behind this spatial discrepancy could help us formulate better policies to address climate issues. To this end, we conduct an empirical analysis using city response data from 2020, sourced from the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), focusing on a dataset that encompasses 421 cities worldwide. Specifically, we first formulate a “vulnerability index” to measure the propensity of cities to suffer negative effects in the event of climate hazards and a “readiness index” to represent their adaptation readiness level. Then we introduce the “discrepancy score” to quantify discrepancies across cities and discover the spatial distribution of the discrepancies through spatial visualization. Further, we employ a clustering analysis method named k-means to group different cities based on vulnerability index and readiness index. Finally, we perform Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to quantitatively analyze the spatial correlation between the economy and the discrepancy score of different cities. Our research mainly reveals several findings: (1) European cities tend to exhibit high levels of adaptation readiness with low degrees of vulnerability. In contrast, African cities consistently display heightened degrees of vulnerability combined with limited adaptation readiness. (2) Economic factors play a significant role in the spatial discrepancies between levels of adaptation readiness and degrees of vulnerability of cities; (3) The impact of the economy on the discrepancy scores exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with its influence being greater in European and African regions compared to other areas. Our study contributes both theoretically and practically to the comprehension of global climate change. It provides evidence-based support for the development of more effective climate change mitigation strategies and lays the foundation for fostering worldwide collaboration and initiatives.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140409221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inclusive governance of hydropower on shared rivers? Toward an international legal geography of the Lower Mekong basin","authors":"Oliver Hensengerth","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1275049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1275049","url":null,"abstract":"Hydropower is now the largest source of renewable energy worldwide. The International Renewable Energy Agency estimates that current hydropower capacity will need to double by 2050 in order to transition to net zero and to arrest the rise of global temperatures at 1.5 degrees Celsius. Much of the currently built and planned dams are on rivers shared between two or more countries. This raises the risk of increased inter-state conflicts. However, to exploit hydropower peacefully, the impact on local communities must also be considered. This foregrounds the need to build inclusive institutions that can mediate the different interests, norms, and values held by communities located across different scales. The article examines the role of international river basin organizations to manage this legal pluralism in shared river basins. In many basins globally, such as the Lower Mekong, the Columbia, the Zambezi, or the Senegal, international river basin organizations are tasked with the development of shared water resources. To understand to what extent river basin organizations can mediate the legal pluralism in a shared basin, the article develops an international legal geography approach to the governance of transboundary waters in an attempt to uncover marginalization and disempowerment in the process of law-making. It therefore expands the analytical scope of legal geography to the study of transnational spaces, in this case complex ecosystems for which there are no fixed jurisdictional boundaries. It then applies this approach to the case study of the Lower Mekong basin. Findings indicate that the Mekong River Commission, despite attempts to include project-affected people in decision-making, largely operates within a Westphalian framework of sovereignty to the detriment of more inclusive forms of governance. Project affected communities are largely unable to exert influence and are relegated to participation in alternative forums. These forums, or counter publics as Yong called them, are disconnected from official processes. While they give rise to marginalized voices and enable the creation of inclusive and participatory spaces, the exclusionary official decision-making processes continue to produce significant tension and conflict potential as hydropower is championed globally as a clean, climate friendly form of energy. As hydropower is set to double by 2050, inclusive participatory institutions in basins worldwide must be built to navigate complex stakeholder interests and to benefit those who are otherwise likely to lose out in net zero transitions. These findings are relevant for other shared basins, particularly across Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America where hydropower is booming. An international approach to legal geography can foreground these hidden and marginalized voices and help identify ways to build inclusive institutions for the governance of shared resources.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140409775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Insights intended to improve adaptation planning and reduce vulnerability at the local scale","authors":"Renato Cáceres, Johanna Wandel, Jeremy Pittman, Peter Deadman","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1345921","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1345921","url":null,"abstract":"We live in a world of constant change, where multiple factors that generate vulnerability coincide, such as pandemics, climate change, and globalization, among other political and societal concerns. This demands the development of approaches capable of dealing with diverse sources of vulnerability and strategies that enable us to plan for and mitigate harm in the face of uncertainty. Our paper shows that the interpretation and conception that one gives to vulnerability in climate change can influence how decision-making solutions and adaptation measures are proposed and adopted. In this context, our approach integrates contextual vulnerability and decision-making planning tools to bolster the capacity to adapt at a local scale. We link our analysis to the evolution of vulnerability in climate change studies and some core articles and decisions on climate change adaptation and capacity building under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Conference of Parties throughout this study.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140422462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Incorporating indigenous knowledge systems-based climate services in anticipatory action in Zimbabwe: an ex-ante assessment","authors":"Thulani Dube, Anna Lena Huhn, Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Elisha N. Moyo, Markus Enenkel","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1301908","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1301908","url":null,"abstract":"The success of anticipatory action (AA) in climate change related disaster risk reduction depends largely on the ability to accurately predict adverse weather events and to subsequently take appropriate and timely action. The current seasonal climate forecasts obtained through national and global forecasting centers such as the Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department (MSD) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been found to have several limitations including limited skill in intra-seasonal variability which is vital in most processes, lack of accessibility, difficult interpretability and applicability to local communities. As a result, calls for the integration of Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS)-based climate services in seasonal climate forecasting to bolster the efficacy and accuracy of forecasts are increasing.The study employed a mixed methods approach combining a survey of 200 household heads, document reviews and key informant interviews with IKS specialists, AA community of practice members and disaster risk reduction specialists.This article presents the findings of a study carried out in four semi-arid districts of Zimbabwe (Mbire, Matobo, Binga, and Mudzi) to assess the feasibility of integrating IKS into the drought AA mechanism at national, district, and ward level. We find that 82% of the surveyed households used indigenous knowledge systems for seasonal climate forecasting and extreme weather forecasting combined with scientific forecasts. Respondents demonstrated preference for triangulated forecasting to increase reliability. Both the meteorological approaches to seasonal climate forecasting and the IKS based forecasting had different strengths and weaknesses.Based on the found gaps in current seasonal forecasting techniques, local applicability, and limited quantitative analysis in IKS, this study provides a guideline on how scientific and IKS forecasting can be triangulated for leveraging forecasting information in Zimbabwe. The use of IKS may be of utmost relevance to agencies and entities seeking the achievement of drought risk reduction through AA programmes.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140422244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of atmospheric indicators in the Adriatic coastal areas: a multi-hazards approach for a better awareness of the current and future climate","authors":"Giusy Fedele, Ilenia Manco, G. Barbato, G. Verri, Paola Mercogliano","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1330299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1330299","url":null,"abstract":"Increasing climate resilience to global warming is one of the main challenges of the last few decades. Effective local measures have to be adopted to provide concrete solutions to the current and expected impacts of climate change. This is the goal of the AdriaClim Italia-Croatia Interreg Project (https://www.italy-croatia.eu/web/adriaclim), aimed at supporting the development of regional and local climate change adaptation plans for the Adriatic coastal regions. For this purpose, an exhaustive number of atmospheric climate indicators have been identified and evaluated across nine pilot areas to assess the current and expected main climate hazards affecting these regions, considering the worst-case emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 8.5). The proposed analyses are provided by the results of the regional climate atmospheric model developed within the AdriaClim Project. The selected climate indicators are used to assess the possible evolution of the climate hazard across the pilot areas, covering different hazards, such as thermal discomfort, drought, and hydrological instability. A site-dependent investigation of the atmospheric climate indicators is proposed to emphasize which regions are more affected than others by the investigated climate hazards, thus warranting more attention in defining and proposing new adaptation strategies. The results highlight increasing temperatures (up to +3°C) across the Adriatic coastal regions, with more emphasis on the Northern Adriatic, where the combined effect with the relevant decrease in precipitation (down to −2 mm/day) may lead to severe drought conditions in the coming decades. In contrast, precipitation-related diseases may hit more Central and South Italy than the Northern Adriatic, except for the Emilia-Romagna region, which is found to be highly sensitive to both hazard categories. Finally, it is relevant to emphasize that these analyses have to be carefully considered in supporting adaptation strategies due to the lack of uncertainty estimates representing a fundamental element for decision-makers.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140420030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysing direct air capture for enabling negative emissions in Germany: an assessment of the resource requirements and costs of a potential rollout in 2045","authors":"Simon Block, P. Viebahn, Christian Jungbluth","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2024.1353939","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1353939","url":null,"abstract":"Direct air capture (DAC) combined with subsequent storage (DACCS) is discussed as one promising carbon dioxide removal option. The aim of this paper is to analyse and comparatively classify the resource consumption (land use, renewable energy and water) and costs of possible DAC implementation pathways for Germany. The paths are based on a selected, existing climate neutrality scenario that requires the removal of 20 Mt of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year by DACCS from 2045. The analysis focuses on the so-called “low-temperature” DAC process, which might be more advantageous for Germany than the “high-temperature” one. In four case studies, we examine potential sites in northern, central and southern Germany, thereby using the most suitable renewable energies for electricity and heat generation. We show that the deployment of DAC results in large-scale land use and high energy needs. The land use in the range of 167–353 km2 results mainly from the area required for renewable energy generation. The total electrical energy demand of 14.4 TWh per year, of which 46% is needed to operate heat pumps to supply the heat demand of the DAC process, corresponds to around 1.4% of Germany's envisaged electricity demand in 2045. 20 Mt of water are provided yearly, corresponding to 40% of the city of Cologne‘s water demand (1.1 million inhabitants). The capture of CO2 (DAC) incurs levelised costs of 125–138 EUR per tonne of CO2, whereby the provision of the required energy via photovoltaics in southern Germany represents the lowest value of the four case studies. This does not include the costs associated with balancing its volatility. Taking into account transporting the CO2 via pipeline to the port of Wilhelmshaven, followed by transporting and sequestering the CO2 in geological storage sites in the Norwegian North Sea (DACCS), the levelised costs increase to 161–176 EUR/tCO2. Due to the longer transport distances from southern and central Germany, a northern German site using wind turbines would be the most favourable.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140428744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}