Frontiers in Climate最新文献

{"title":"Describing complex interactions of social-ecological systems for tipping point assessments: an analytical framework","authors":"Rebecca Froese, A. Andrino, R. Giudice, Benjamin Stuch, Simone Kilian Salas, J. Böhner, D. Boy, J. Boy, Foster Brown, Elisa Díaz García, Diana Figueroa, O. Frör, G. Guggenberger, M. Horn, S. Hasson, Christopher Jung, Elisabeth Lagneaux, Katharina H. E. Meurer, Claudia Pinzón Cuellar, R. Schaldach, S. Ribeiro, J. Schilling, F. A. Schmidt, Regine Schönenberg, G. Selaya, C.M. Vega, V. Vetter, Miguel Villavicenio, D. Callo-Concha, M. Jansen, H. Jungkunst","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1145942","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1145942","url":null,"abstract":"Humans play an interconnecting role in social-ecological systems (SES), they are part of these systems and act as agents of their destruction and regulation. This study aims to provide an analytical framework, which combines the concept of SES with the concept of tipping dynamics. As a result, we propose an analytical framework describing relevant dynamics and feedbacks within SES based on two matrixes: the “tipping matrix” and the “cross-impact matrix.” We take the Southwestern Amazon as an example for tropical regions at large and apply the proposed analytical framework to identify key underlying sub-systems within the study region: the soil ecosystem, the household livelihood system, the regional social system, and the regional climate system, which are interconnected through a network of feedbacks. We consider these sub-systems as tipping elements (TE), which when put under stress, can cross a tipping point (TP), resulting in a qualitative and potentially irreversible change of the respective TE. By systematically assessing linkages and feedbacks within and between TEs, our proposed analytical framework can provide an entry point for empirically assessing tipping point dynamics such as “tipping cascades,” which means that the crossing of a TP in one TE may force the tipping of another TE. Policy implications: The proposed joint description of the structure and dynamics within and across SES in respect to characteristics of tipping point dynamics promotes a better understanding of human-nature interactions and critical linkages within regional SES that may be used for effectively informing and directing empirical tipping point assessments, monitoring or intervention purposes. Thereby, the framework can inform policy-making for enhancing the resilience of regional SES.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44457123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How convincing are AI-generated moral arguments for climate action?","authors":"Nicole Nisbett, V. Spaiser","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1193350","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1193350","url":null,"abstract":"Mobilizing broad support for climate action is paramount for solving the climate crisis. Research suggests that people can be persuaded to support climate action when presented with certain moral arguments, but which moral arguments are most convincing across the population? With this pilot study, we aim to understand which types of moral arguments based on an extended Moral Foundation Theory are most effective at convincing people to support climate action. Additionally, we explore to what extent Generative Pre-trained Transformer 3 (GPT-3) models can be employed to generate bespoke moral statements. We find statements appealing to compassion, fairness and good ancestors are the most convincing to participants across the population, including to participants, who identify as politically right-leaning and who otherwise respond least to moral arguments. Negative statements appear to be more convincing than positive ones. Statements appealing to other moral foundations can be convincing, but only to specific social groups. GPT-3-generated statements are generally more convincing than human-generated statements, but the large language model struggles with creating novel arguments.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48211571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Communicating carbon removal","authors":"R. Bellamy, K. Raimi","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1205388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1205388","url":null,"abstract":"Removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is “unavoidable” if net zero emissions are to be achieved, and is fast rising up the climate policy agenda. Research, development, demonstration, and deployment of various methods has begun, but technical advances alone will not guarantee a role for them in tackling climate change. For those engrossed in carbon removal debates, it is easy to forget that most people have never heard of these strategies. Public perception of carbon removal is therefore particularly sensitive to framings—the ways in which scientists, entrepreneurs, activists, politicians, the media, and others choose to organize and communicate it. In this perspective, we highlight four aspects of carbon removal for which their framing will play a decisive role in whether—and how—different methods are taken forward. First, the use of analogies can be helpful in guiding mental models, but can also inadvertently imply processes or outcomes that do not apply in the new example. Second, a taxonomic split between “nature-based” and “technological” methods threatens to divert attention from the actual qualities of different methods and constrain our policy options. Third, people are likely to overestimate the emissions-reduction potential of carbon removal, but this misperception can be corrected. Fourth, communications overlook the social arrangements for carbon removal and the alternative trajectories that implementation may take. We end by offering key recommendations for how we can communicate carbon removal more responsibly.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42515160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editorial: Enhanced weathering and synergistic combinations with other CDR methods","authors":"M. Hagens, J. Hartmann, S. Vicca, D. Beerling","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1244396","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1244396","url":null,"abstract":"COPYRIGHT © 2023 Hagens, Hartmann, Vicca and Beerling. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. Editorial: Enhanced weathering and synergistic combinations with other CDR methods","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45889200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Politics of climate risk management in local government: a case study of the municipality of Stavanger","authors":"Cathrine Witnes Karlson, Claudia Morsut, O. A. Engen","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1136673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1136673","url":null,"abstract":"The case study presented in this paper was conducted to study the politics of local-level climate risk management and discuss these politics' implications for responses to climate change and democratic deliberation. Local government plays an important role in the response to climate change, in particular with reference to coping with unwanted consequences of climate change, such as more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including torrential rain and flooding. Climate risk management is an approach that local government can adopt to deal with these unwanted consequences. To investigate the politics of local-level climate risk management, we conducted a case study of the municipality of Stavanger in Norway. In analyzing this case study, we drew on literature on the securitization of climate change, in particular, that of risk-based securitization of climate change produced by governmental power. The analysis given here is derived by applying the concept of risk logic understood as the translation of unwanted consequences of climate change into climate risk together with the actions and use of tools influenced by the discipline of risk analysis thereby entailed. Risk logic manifests in political discourse, actors, and tools. In this case study, the justification for risk logic on unwanted consequences of climate change at the local level comes from national-level laws and regulations. Moreover, climate risk management is translated into existing bureaucratic routines, organizational structures, and the activities of professionals. Risk tools play an essential role in making unwanted consequences of climate change governable and can manifest as a consequence of risk logic or can convey risk logic. The analysis implies that the securitization of climate change based on governmental power at the local level has a depoliticizing effect on the issue. Moreover, the unique characteristics of unwanted consequences of climate change fade as climate risk is seen as a risk driver to be factored into existing and well-known risks, and thereby normalizes the situation. Finally, the focus on the cause of climate change seems to diminish because safety is a function of the referent objects, and the response thereby becomes decoupled from the wider issue of global warming.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49081645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance","authors":"G. Schmidt, T. Andrews, S. Bauer, P. Durack, N. Loeb, V. Ramaswamy, N. Arnold, M. Bosilovich, J. Cole, L. Horowitz, G. Johnson, J. Lyman, B. Medeiros, T. Michibata, D. Olonscheck, D. Paynter, Shivaranjan Raghuraman, Michael Schulz, Daisuke Takasuka, V. Tallapragada, P. Taylor, T. Ziehn","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1202161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1202161","url":null,"abstract":"The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44471381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Streamflow and flood prediction in Rwanda using machine learning and remote sensing in support of rural first-mile transport connectivity","authors":"Denis Macharia, Lambert Mugabo, Felix Kasiti, Abbie Noriega, Laura A. S. MacDonald, Evan Thomas","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1158186","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1158186","url":null,"abstract":"Flooding, an increasing risk in Rwanda, tends to isolate and restrict the mobility of rural communities. In this work, we developed a streamflow model to determine whether floods and rainfall anomalies explain variations in rural trail bridge use, as directly measured by in-situ motion-activated digital cameras. Flooding data and river flows upon which our investigation relies are not readily available because most of the rivers that are the focus of this study are ungauged. We developed a streamflow model for these rivers by exploring the performance of process-based and machine learning models. We then selected the best model to estimate streamflow at each bridge site to enable an investigation of the associations between weather events and pedestrian volumes collected from motion-activated cameras. The Gradient Boosting Machine model (GBM) had the highest skill with a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score of 0.79 followed by the Random Forest model (RFM) and the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with KGE scores of 0.73 and 0.66, respectively. The physically-based Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) had a KGE score of 0.07. At the 50% flow exceedance threshold, the GBM model predicted 90% of flood events reported between 2013 and 2022. We found moderate to strong positive correlations between total monthly crossings and the total number of flood events at four of the seven bridge sites (r = 0.36–0.84), and moderate negative correlations at the remaining bridge sites (r = -0.33– -0.53). Correlation with monthly rainfall was generally moderate to high with one bridge site showing no correlation and the rest having correlations ranging between 0.15–0.76. These results reveal an association between weather events and mobility and support the scaling up of the trail bridge program to mitigate flood risks. The paper concludes with recommendations for the improvement of streamflow and flood prediction in Rwanda in support of community-based flood early warning systems connected to trail bridges.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44026956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum: Solar geoengineering modeling and applications for mitigating global warming: assessing key parameters and the urban heat island influence","authors":"A. Feinberg","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1225747","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1225747","url":null,"abstract":"COPYRIGHT © 2023 Feinberg. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. Corrigendum: Solar geoengineering modeling and applications for mitigating global warming: assessing key parameters and the urban heat island influence","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44594696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What makes people adapt together? An empirically grounded conceptual model on the enablers and barriers of collective climate change adaptation","authors":"Mia Wannewitz, J. Petzold, M. Garschagen","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1213852","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1213852","url":null,"abstract":"Coping with and adapting to climate change impacts are collective action problems that require broad joint efforts to reduce current and future risks. This is most obvious for highly vulnerable and exposed individuals, whose capacities to adapt to recurrent environmental threats are mostly bound in their ability to work together – not only in the immediate disaster situation but also in the long-term to secure their livelihoods. While there are explanatory models for collective action in the context of climate change, there is still a need to validate them further for vulnerable residents in high-risk contexts that prioritize cultural values of collective self-understanding, mutual support, and reciprocity. Additionally, the identified factors that facilitate collective climate action are currently quite abstract and may not be very useful for practical application and policy development. Addressing these gaps, we build on existing collective action models and a qualitative analysis of empirical data from kampung cooperatives in Jakarta to develop a conceptual framework explaining what triggers individuals to start acting collectively and which factors motivate them to keep being engaged in long-term collective adaptation action. It highlights the need to differentiate between what we will call initial triggers and long-term motivators to better understand and advance collective adaptation efforts in high-risk contexts. This novel differentiation of motivation factors enhances our conceptual understanding of collective adaptation. Furthermore, the findings may inform practice and policy-making toward enhancing and maintaining collective adaptation initiatives.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45992309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tropical blue carbon: solutions and perspectives for valuations of carbon sequestration","authors":"Nathalie Hilmi, Maria Belen Benitez Carranco, D. Broussard, Maryann Mathew, Salpie S. Djoundourian, Sandra Cassotta, Alain Safa, Samir Maliki, Florence Descroix-Comanducci, D. Allemand, C. Berthomieu, J. Hall‐Spencer, C. Ferrier‐Pagès","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1169663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1169663","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical marine ecosystems provide a wide range of provisioning, regulating, supporting and cultural services to millions of people. They also largely contribute to blue carbon sequestration. Mangroves, seaweeds, and seagrass habitats are important because they store large amounts of organic carbon while fish play a fundamental role in the carbon transport to deep waters. Protecting and restoring tropical marine ecosystems is of great value to society because their decline impairs the vital services they provide, such as coastal protection and seafood supplies. In this marine policy paper, we present options for enhancing blue carbon sequestration in tropical coastal areas. In addition, we outline the economic value of four components of coastal ecosystems (mangroves, seagrass beds, seaweed forests and fish) and discuss the economic levers society can apply to ensure the end of the current gross mismanagement of tropical blue carbon ecosystems. Market-based solutions, such as carbon taxes or fines for violations that use the ‘polluter pays' principle, can be very effective in achieving national or international climate agreements. Private investment can also finance the preservation of blue carbon ecosystems. One widely known financing method for blue carbon conservation, particularly of mangroves, is the use of municipal bonds, which can be issued like traditional bonds to finance the day-to-day obligations of cities, states and counties. Non-philanthropic investments can also be used in order to protect these ecosystems, such as debt-for-nature swaps and the improved application of regulatory frameworks. Overall, the protection of tropical marine ecosystems is an ecological imperative and should also be seen as an opportunity for new revenue streams and debt reduction for countries worldwide.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48338908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}