Frontiers in Climate最新文献

{"title":"Modeling the measurement of carbon dioxide removal: perspectives from the philosophy of measurement","authors":"Joseph Wilson","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1283333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1283333","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores how recent developments in the philosophy of measurement can frame and guide the way we measure successful carbon sequestration in carbon dioxide removal (CDR) projects. Recent efforts to mitigate carbon emissions, e.g., the forest offset program implemented in California, have been revealed to systematically over-credit projects relative to the benefits they produce for the climate. In this paper I utilize concepts from the philosophy of measurement, primarily those surrounding models of the measurement process, to diagnose this problem of over-crediting in the broader context of concerns about uncertainty and impermanence in CDR. In light of these measurement models, I argue for absolute measurement targets in favor of the standard comparative targets, the latter of which are significantly dependent on tenuous baseline projections. I go on to consider which contemporary approaches to CDR are successful in light of lingering uncertainty about the future, which puts particular emphasis on the permanence of carbon sequestration. Independent of the specific argument developed here, the paper also serves to introduce concepts from the philosophy of science and measurement to a broader audience, in the hopes they will benefit other areas of research.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139447736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Consumption-based emission inventories in Nordic municipalities—a quest to develop support for local climate action","authors":"Hans Sanderson, Mikael Hildén, Laura Saikku, Katarina Axelsson, Anders Branth Pedersen, B. Aamaas","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1294296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1294296","url":null,"abstract":"Municipalities can play a large role in achieving global climate targets. Integrating a consumption-based perspective is key to being able to mitigate global emissions. We conducted a survey among municipality officials in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden) and held several workshops to deepen our understanding of municipalities' work to address consumption-based emissions. Findings show that less than half of the municipalities in the studied countries worked actively on measuring consumption-based emissions but that there is a broad interest in further developing GHG inventories that incorporate emissions from municipalities' own consumption as well as from citizens' consumption. Both expectations and challenges related to consumption-based inventories are remarkably similar across the four countries. A majority of the survey respondents perceived that the municipality could influence consumption-based emission from the municipality as a society by cooperating with residents and businesses. Similarly, information on consumption-based emissions was broadly identified as a key need to identify just and sustainable measures toward climate neutrality. The information generated was recognized by municipal employees to be useful for making better climate plans, optimizing their own operations' emission reductions, and helping residents and companies to reduce their emissions. We argue that it is essential that municipalities can base their actions on coherent and reliable information on consumption-based emissions that is comparable across municipalities and that can be connected to national tracking of emissions. This requires standardized methods and base-line data as not all municipalities can mobilize the needed human and financial resources to make their own inventories.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"23 24","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139445428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transnational governance standards in ensuring sustainable development and operation of hydropower projects in transboundary basins","authors":"Owen McIntyre","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1329076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1329076","url":null,"abstract":"The notion of “transnational” law encompasses a sophisticated corpus of globally applicable rules, standards and safeguards, often informal in origin, which are widely accepted around the world and supported across a range of business sectors and civil society constituencies. The recent proliferation of such “transnational” law extends to the hydropower sector, where normative standards and safeguards increasingly apply to promote and certify sustainable practices in the development and operation of hydropower projects. Such projects are associated with significant environmental and social impacts and the projected increase in hydropower investments, mainly in emerging economies, will require effective supplemental regulatory tools. Many such projects will be located in, or impact upon, international rivers, thereby adding a further layer of complexity regarding their effective regulation and increased the risk of inter-State disputes over the equitable use of shared waters. Such complexity and risk will be exacerbated by increased uncertainty due to climate change. Thus, the existence of widely accepted transnational standards, which are relevant and applicable to hydropower development globally, can play a key role in building trust between watercourse States and in promoting greater transboundary water cooperation. This article explores the potential role of transnational standards in improved regulation of environmental and social impacts associated with hydropower projects located on international watercourses and the extent to which such standards cohere with established and emerging requirements of international water law. It thus examines the synergies arising between these informal and formal regulatory frameworks with a view to developing a better understanding of their interaction in practice. In so doing, it focuses on two key categories of applicable transnational regime: a sustainability certification and labeling scheme dedicated to hydropower projects and operated by the Hydropower Sustainability Council; and MDB environmental and social safeguard standards imposed upon major water-related projects, including hydropower projects, particularly those adopted by the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139446861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How well can we predict climate migration? A review of forecasting models","authors":"K. Schewel, Sarah Dickerson, B. Madson, Gabriela Nagle Alverio","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1189125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1189125","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change will have significant impacts on all aspects of human society, including population movements. In some cases, populations will be displaced by natural disasters and sudden-onset climate events, such as tropical storms. In other cases, climate change will gradually influence the economic, social, and political realities of a place, which will in turn influence how and where people migrate. Planning for the wide spectrum of future climate-related mobility is a key challenge facing development planners and policy makers. This article reviews the state of climate-related migration forecasting models, based on an analysis of thirty recent models. We present the key characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of different modeling approaches, including gravity, radiation, agent-based, systems dynamics and statistical extrapolation models, and consider five illustrative models in depth. We show why, at this stage of development, forecasting models are not yet able to provide reliable numerical estimates of future climate-related migration. Rather, models are best used as tools to consider a range of possible futures, to explore systems dynamics, to test theories or potential policy effects. We consider the policy and research implications of our findings, including the need for improved migration data collection, enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration, and scenarios-based planning.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"54 15","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139386917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Treatment of uncertainty in determining the UK's path to Net Zero","authors":"David Joffe","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1243191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1243191","url":null,"abstract":"The Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommended the UK's 2050 Net Zero target in 2019 and then the emissions pathway to this as part of its advice on the Sixth Carbon Budget at the end of 2020. As part of this, the CCC's analysis included development of five pathways to Net Zero, incorporating a number of judgements and framings regarding uncertainty and decision points, to highlight key choices for Government and wider society on the path to Net Zero. This paper explores how the analysis, and its presentation, framed these choices and uncertainties, in order to highlight where decisions are required and what the trade-offs and potential contingency options might be. It concludes with reflections on the effectiveness of this approach and on the future challenges on decision-making and uncertainty toward Net Zero.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"33 16","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138946735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decision making for net zero policy design and climate action: considerations for improving translation at the research-policy interface: a UK Carbon Dioxide Removal case study","authors":"Mark Workman, Richard Heap, Erik Mackie, Irena Connon","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1288001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1288001","url":null,"abstract":"The impacts of climate change on society and the natural environment are being experienced now, with extreme weather events increasing in frequency and severity across the globe. To keep the Paris Agreement's ambition of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels there is now also a need to establish and scale a new sector to remove CO2 at Giga-ton scale for over a century. Despite this mounting evidence and warnings, current climate policy in the UK and globally falls far short of achieving the required reductions in CO2 emissions or establishment of a new removal sector needed to stave off the risks posed by climate change. Some of the science on climate risk is well-evidenced, but the policy response is lacking in effectiveness. Other evidence to design policy, such as Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), is fraught with deep uncertainty. Why are the plethora of scientific evidence, assessments and decision support tools available to decision and policymakers not always translating into effective climate-net zero policy action? How can emergent evidence be introduced to shape new sectors such as CDR? What are the capacity gaps? Through a combination of literature review, interviews and UK policy workshops over 17 months these are some of the questions that this contribution sought insight. We set out three recommendations for policymakers and other stakeholders, including academic researchers and third sector organizations, to address the identified gaps associated with translating climate risk and net zero decision support into effective climate policy:• Enhance collaboration between decision-makers, policymakers, analysts, researchers, and other stakeholders to co-develop and co-design operational climate risk assessments and policies, relevant to context.• Identify the research and capacity gaps around climate risk decision-making under uncertainty, and work with stakeholders across the decision value chain to ensure those gaps are addressed.• Co-create effective translation mechanisms to embed decision-support tools into policy better, employing a participatory approach to ensure inclusion of diverse values and viewpoints.It is fundamental that there is improvement in our understanding about how we can make good decisions and operationalize them, rather than simply focus on further research on the climate risk and net zero problem.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"23 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139166313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The end of the game: emotional responses of older adults to climate crisis and climate mobilizations in Switzerland","authors":"Jérôme Grand","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1264495","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1264495","url":null,"abstract":"In relation to climate change activism and climate emotions, the youth has captured most of the attention of researchers. This article draws on in-depth face-to-face interviews with people aged 64 and over engaged in pro-environmental behaviors in Switzerland.Through a thematic analysis, we identify eight themes on positive and negative mental states related to the climate crisis and climate-related mobilizations.The qualitative sample shows that older people engage in pro-environmental behaviors, not out of fear of losing access to vital resources, but out of concern for future generations, humanity, and nature. This broad sense of morality is associated with a form of anger for a world that refuses to change.Between generations, emotions vary in intensity but not in nature, and the strategies older adults undertake to mitigate their negative emotions are similar to the strategies mobilized by youth activists. In both cases, anger and fear are powerful negative emotions, and the pleasure, joy, and hope of protesting with like-minded others is a kind of remedy. Older people just face very different constraints and undertake actions that are compatible with their physical and cognitive capacities.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"256 24","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139170806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Balancing climate goals and biodiversity protection: legal implications of the 30x30 target for land-based carbon removal","authors":"Philipp Günther, Felix Ekardt","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1276606","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1276606","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the legal conflicts between land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies and the establishment of protected areas through the lens of international environmental law. We argue that the 2022 Global Biodiversity Framework's “30x30” target—which aims to protect 30% of global terrestrial and marine areas by 2030—constitutes a “subsequent agreement” under international law and thus clarifies the legal scope and content of the obligation to establish protected areas under Article 8 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Since states have pledged 120 million square kilometers for land-based CDR, these commitments potentially conflict with the “30x30” target, especially if global cropland for food production is to be maintained. Consequently, some land-based CDR strategies may directly or indirectly impede the achievement of the “30x30” target, which could be deemed inconsistent with international law. However, as all international environmental law operates in a continuum, this does not imply that land-based CDR should be categorically ruled out. Rather, states should focus on emission reductions and implementing CDR options that provide the most co-benefits to climate mitigation and biodiversity protection efforts.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138956002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change and urban stormwater: vulnerability analysis of the 2010 floods in Lomé, Togo","authors":"Reisch Vanel Attipo, Innocent Joachim Emvoulou, Aholou Cyprien Coffi","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1281433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1281433","url":null,"abstract":"This manuscript assesses the vulnerability to flooding between June and August 2010 in Lomé, Togo. To this end, we administered a survey to 312 inhabitants of different areas affected by flooding. The flood risk assessment methodology is based on the analysis of socio-economic indicators, risk exposure indicators, sensitivity indicators and indicators relating to the recovery capacity of flood victims. The analyses showed that 61.5% of respondents had no perception of the risk, compared with 38% who were aware of a very low level of risk compared with 2010. In addition, 84.2% of people living in areas vulnerable to flooding said they were not aware of the risk of flooding in their area. The government's assistance consisted of emergency supplies (food, medicines and temporary accommodation) for the most vulnerable sections of the population. The relevance of this research is not limited to understanding vulnerability to flooding, as it also brings new clarity to the relationship between urban management and socio-economic challenges. This research shows that vulnerability has been exacerbated by socio-economic insecurity and the inadequacy of sanitation facilities.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"2 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138956081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Genetic structure and diversity of the seagrass Zostera marina along a steep environmental gradient, with implications for genetic monitoring","authors":"Stefanie R. Ries, Ellika Faust, Kerstin Johannesson, Per R. Jonsson, P. Moksnes, R. Pereyra, Marlene Jahnke","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1303337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1303337","url":null,"abstract":"Zostera marina (eelgrass) is a foundation species in coastal zones in the northern hemisphere. Eelgrass is declining across its distribution, a trend likely to accelerate under climate change. In Sweden, eelgrass is a species of particular concern in management and conservation. Here, we provide information on genetic variation, an important component for the potential persistence and adaptation of any species in a changing environment. In particular, the steep salinity gradient over which eelgrass is distributed along the Swedish coast (26 psu on the west coast to 5 psu on the east coast) calls for a better understanding of genetic diversity, connectivity, and potential for local adaptation. To assess genetic variation and population genetic structure, we genotyped individuals with 2,138 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 15 eelgrass meadows spanning the whole Swedish distribution. We found a geographic population genetic structure from west to east parallel to the salinity gradient and with a clear genetic break at the entrance to the Baltic Sea. Meadows along the low salinity east coast consisted of a few or only one clone. Eelgrass on the west coast had higher genotypic richness, higher genetic variation, and showed population differentiation on smaller geographic scales. With their low genetic variation, the east coast meadows are especially threatened amidst global changes. Lack of sexual reproduction and the capacity to generate new genotypes is an issue that needs to be seriously considered in management and conservation. In addition, the lack of sexual reproduction renders clonal eelgrass less likely to recover and recolonize after disturbance, and more challenging to restore. The here provided information on genetic clusters, clonality, and genetic variation can be included for prioritizing meadows for conservation and for identifying meadows for restoration purposes. Most importantly, genetic monitoring is urgently needed to assess temporal genetic changes of eelgrass along the Swedish coast and elsewhere facing climate change.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"78 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139175841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}