Describing complex interactions of social-ecological systems for tipping point assessments: an analytical framework

IF 3.3 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Rebecca Froese, A. Andrino, R. Giudice, Benjamin Stuch, Simone Kilian Salas, J. Böhner, D. Boy, J. Boy, Foster Brown, Elisa Díaz García, Diana Figueroa, O. Frör, G. Guggenberger, M. Horn, S. Hasson, Christopher Jung, Elisabeth Lagneaux, Katharina H. E. Meurer, Claudia Pinzón Cuellar, R. Schaldach, S. Ribeiro, J. Schilling, F. A. Schmidt, Regine Schönenberg, G. Selaya, C.M. Vega, V. Vetter, Miguel Villavicenio, D. Callo-Concha, M. Jansen, H. Jungkunst
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Abstract

Humans play an interconnecting role in social-ecological systems (SES), they are part of these systems and act as agents of their destruction and regulation. This study aims to provide an analytical framework, which combines the concept of SES with the concept of tipping dynamics. As a result, we propose an analytical framework describing relevant dynamics and feedbacks within SES based on two matrixes: the “tipping matrix” and the “cross-impact matrix.” We take the Southwestern Amazon as an example for tropical regions at large and apply the proposed analytical framework to identify key underlying sub-systems within the study region: the soil ecosystem, the household livelihood system, the regional social system, and the regional climate system, which are interconnected through a network of feedbacks. We consider these sub-systems as tipping elements (TE), which when put under stress, can cross a tipping point (TP), resulting in a qualitative and potentially irreversible change of the respective TE. By systematically assessing linkages and feedbacks within and between TEs, our proposed analytical framework can provide an entry point for empirically assessing tipping point dynamics such as “tipping cascades,” which means that the crossing of a TP in one TE may force the tipping of another TE. Policy implications: The proposed joint description of the structure and dynamics within and across SES in respect to characteristics of tipping point dynamics promotes a better understanding of human-nature interactions and critical linkages within regional SES that may be used for effectively informing and directing empirical tipping point assessments, monitoring or intervention purposes. Thereby, the framework can inform policy-making for enhancing the resilience of regional SES.
描述用于临界点评估的社会生态系统的复杂相互作用:一个分析框架
人类在社会生态系统(SES)中发挥着相互联系的作用,他们是这些系统的一部分,是破坏和调节这些系统的媒介。本研究旨在提供一个分析框架,将SES的概念与倾翻动力学的概念相结合。因此,我们提出了一个基于两个矩阵描述SES内相关动态和反馈的分析框架:“临界矩阵”和“交叉影响矩阵”,家庭生计系统、区域社会系统和区域气候系统,它们通过反馈网络相互联系。我们将这些子系统视为临界元件(TE),当它们受到压力时,可以跨越临界点(TP),从而导致相应TE的定性和潜在的不可逆变化。通过系统地评估TE内部和之间的联系和反馈,我们提出的分析框架可以为经验评估临界点动态(如“临界级联”)提供一个切入点,这意味着一个TE中的TP交叉可能会迫使另一个TE发生临界。政策含义:拟议的关于临界点动态特征的SES内部和整个SES的结构和动态的联合描述有助于更好地理解区域SES内的人性互动和关键联系,可用于有效地为经验临界点评估、监测或干预提供信息和指导。因此,该框架可以为提高区域SES的复原力的决策提供信息。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Climate
Frontiers in Climate Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
233
审稿时长
15 weeks
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