Volcanica最新文献_第7页

Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island 实时喷发情景中专家判断的结构化引出:la r<s:1> union岛Piton de la Fournaise火山的演习

Volcanica Pub Date : 2022-05-04 DOI: 10.30909/vol.05.01.105131

A. Tadini, A. Harris, Julie Morin, Andrew Bevilacqua, A. Peltier, W. Aspinall, S. Ciolli, P. Bachèlery, B. Bernard, Jonas Biren, A. B. da Silveira, Valéry Cayol, O. Chevrel, D. Coppola, H. Dietterich, A. Donovan, O. Dorado, Stéphane Drenne, Olivier Dupéré, L. Gurioli, S. Kolzenburg, J. Komorowski, P. Labazuy, D. Mangione, S. Mannini, François Martel-Asselin, E. Médard, Sophie Pailot-Bonnétat, Victoria Rafflin, Michael Ramsey, N. Richter, Silvia Vallejo, N. Villeneuve, S. Zafrilla

{"title":"Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island","authors":"A. Tadini, A. Harris, Julie Morin, Andrew Bevilacqua, A. Peltier, W. Aspinall, S. Ciolli, P. Bachèlery, B. Bernard, Jonas Biren, A. B. da Silveira, Valéry Cayol, O. Chevrel, D. Coppola, H. Dietterich, A. Donovan, O. Dorado, Stéphane Drenne, Olivier Dupéré, L. Gurioli, S. Kolzenburg, J. Komorowski, P. Labazuy, D. Mangione, S. Mannini, François Martel-Asselin, E. Médard, Sophie Pailot-Bonnétat, Victoria Rafflin, Michael Ramsey, N. Richter, Silvia Vallejo, N. Villeneuve, S. Zafrilla","doi":"10.30909/vol.05.01.105131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.05.01.105131","url":null,"abstract":"Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.","PeriodicalId":33053,"journal":{"name":"Volcanica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45480265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Using paleomagnetism to determine the heating effect of lava flows on underlying substrates 利用古地磁确定熔岩流对下伏基底的加热作用

Volcanica Pub Date : 2022-03-29 DOI: 10.30909/vol.05.01.95103

G. Lerner, S. Tsang, G. Turner

{"title":"Using paleomagnetism to determine the heating effect of lava flows on underlying substrates","authors":"G. Lerner, S. Tsang, G. Turner","doi":"10.30909/vol.05.01.95103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.05.01.95103","url":null,"abstract":"The extent to which heat from lava flows passes into underlying and adjacent materials has significant implications for volcanic hazard studies. Here we demonstrate how paleomagnetism can be used as a tool to determine the heating effects of lava flows in the pre-existing substrates over which they flow. Samples from soils taken beneath lava flows from Rangitoto and Puketutu eruptive centres (Auckland Volcanic Field, Aotearoa New Zealand) and a human-made berm beneath the June 27th Lava Flow (2014–2015; Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii, USA) were subjected to progressive thermal demagnetization to assess the strength and stability of their remanent magnetizations. The temperature and depth to which these soils display a strong coherent magnetization represents the extent to which they were remagnetized (and therefore heated) by the overlying flow. Results suggest heating to at least 570 ℃ at depths of up to 21 cm below the substrate-flow contact. This information is valuable for constraining and validating heat transfer models, which can be used to assess the lava flows’ subterranean thermal hazard. Among many uses, this is vital for emergency management planning for buried infrastructure networks traversing regions that could be exposed to effusive volcanic activity. Further afield, in astrobiology, it might find application in determining the thickness of a substrate layer heated sufficiently by a lava flow to kill living organisms.","PeriodicalId":33053,"journal":{"name":"Volcanica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43861098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

PyMelt: An extensible Python engine for mantle melting calculations PyMelt:用于地幔熔化计算的可扩展Python引擎

Volcanica Pub Date : 2022-02-15 DOI: 10.31223/x5jp7x

S. Matthews, Kevin Wong, M. Gleeson

引用次数: 3

Thermal impact of dykes on ignimbrite and implications for fluid flow compartmentalisation in calderas 岩脉对火成岩的热影响及其对破火山口流体划分的意义

Volcanica Pub Date : 2022-02-03 DOI: 10.30909/vol.05.01.7593

B. Kennedy, M. Heap, S. Burchardt, M. Villeneuve, H. Tuffen, H. Gilg, Jonathan Davidson, Neryda Duncan, E. Saubin, Einar Bessi Gestsson, M. Anjomrouz, Philip Butler

{"title":"Thermal impact of dykes on ignimbrite and implications for fluid flow compartmentalisation in calderas","authors":"B. Kennedy, M. Heap, S. Burchardt, M. Villeneuve, H. Tuffen, H. Gilg, Jonathan Davidson, Neryda Duncan, E. Saubin, Einar Bessi Gestsson, M. Anjomrouz, Philip Butler","doi":"10.30909/vol.05.01.7593","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.05.01.7593","url":null,"abstract":"Ignimbrites within calderas host intrusions with hazardous and/or economically significant hydrothermal systems. The Hvítserkur ignimbrite at Breiðuvík caldera, north-eastern Iceland, is intruded by basaltic dykes. Our data show that the ignimbrite immediately adjacent to the dyke is hard, dark-coloured, recrystallised quartz, plagioclase, and alkali feldspar with a low permeability and porosity and frequent macrofractures. At 1-2 m from the dyke, the ignimbrite is hard, dominantly glassy with pervasive perlitic microfractures, has high permeability, but low porosity and frequent macrofractures. A narrow zone of pervasive unlithified clay exists 2 m from the dyke. Beyond this, the ignimbrite is soft and zeolite-rich, has low permeability, high porosity and fewer macrofractures. The dyke intrusion promoted a narrow zone of welding, fracturing and perlitisation in the ignimbrite resulting in high permeability and focussed alteration. Our study shows how intrusions and their thermal aureoles create vertical pathways for, and horizontal barriers to, geothermal fluid flow.","PeriodicalId":33053,"journal":{"name":"Volcanica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45152758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Active structures and thermal state of the Piton de la Fournaise summit revealed by combined UAV magnetic and thermal infrared measurements 利用无人机磁和热红外联合测量揭示了富尔奈斯峰的活动结构和热态

Volcanica Pub Date : 2022-02-03 DOI: 10.30909/vol.05.01.6174

L. Gailler, P. Labazuy, E. Régis, A. Peltier, V. Ferrazzini

引用次数: 0

Assessing the effectiveness of low-cost air quality monitors for identifying volcanic SO2 and PM downwind from Masaya volcano, Nicaragua 评估低成本空气质量监测器识别尼加拉瓜Masaya火山下风处火山SO2和PM的有效性

Volcanica Pub Date : 2022-02-03 DOI: 10.30909/vol.05.01.3359

Rachel C. W. Whitty, M. Pfeffer, E. Ilyinskaya, T. Roberts, A. Schmidt, S. Barsotti, W. Strauch, L. Crilley, F. Pope, Harold Bellanger, Elvis Mendoza, T. Mather, E. Liu, N. Peters, Isabelle A. Taylor, H. Francis, Xochilt Hernández Leiva, David Lynch, Sebastien Norbert, Peter Baxter

{"title":"Assessing the effectiveness of low-cost air quality monitors for identifying volcanic SO2 and PM downwind from Masaya volcano, Nicaragua","authors":"Rachel C. W. Whitty, M. Pfeffer, E. Ilyinskaya, T. Roberts, A. Schmidt, S. Barsotti, W. Strauch, L. Crilley, F. Pope, Harold Bellanger, Elvis Mendoza, T. Mather, E. Liu, N. Peters, Isabelle A. Taylor, H. Francis, Xochilt Hernández Leiva, David Lynch, Sebastien Norbert, Peter Baxter","doi":"10.30909/vol.05.01.3359","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.05.01.3359","url":null,"abstract":"Gas and particulate matter (PM) emissions from Masaya volcano, Nicaragua, cause substantial regional volcanic air pollution (VAP). We evaluate the suitability of low-cost SO2 and PM sensors for a continuous air-quality network. The network was deployed for six months in five populated areas (4–16 km from crater). The SO2 sensors failed and recorded erroneous values on multiple occasions, likely due to corrosion, requiring significant maintenance commitment. The PM sensors were found to be robust but data required correction for humidity. SO2 measurements could not be used as stand-alone tools to detect occurrence of VAP episodes (VAPE), but an SO2/PM correlation reliably achieved this at near-field stations, as confirmed by meteorological forecasts and satellite imagery. Above-background PM concentrations reliably identified VAPE at both near-field and far-field stations. We suggest that a continuous network can be built from a combination of low-cost PM and SO2 sensors with a greater number of PM-only sensors.","PeriodicalId":33053,"journal":{"name":"Volcanica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48073127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Teaching about volcanoes: Practices, perceptions, and implications for professional development 火山教学:实践、认知和对专业发展的影响

Volcanica Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.30909/vol.05.01.1132

Alison Jolley, J. Dohaney, Ben M. Kennedy

引用次数: 4

Rapid response petrology for the opening eruptive phase of the 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption, La Palma, Canary Islands 加那利群岛拉帕尔马2021年康布雷-维耶哈火山爆发初期的快速响应岩石学

Volcanica Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.30909/vol.05.01.0110

M. Pankhurst, J. Scarrow, O. Barbee, J. Hickey, Berverly C. Coldwell, G. Rollinson, J. A. Rodríguez-Losada, A. Martin Lorenzo, F. Rodríguez, W. Hernández, David Calvo Fernández, P. Hernández, N. Pérez

{"title":"Rapid response petrology for the opening eruptive phase of the 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption, La Palma, Canary Islands","authors":"M. Pankhurst, J. Scarrow, O. Barbee, J. Hickey, Berverly C. Coldwell, G. Rollinson, J. A. Rodríguez-Losada, A. Martin Lorenzo, F. Rodríguez, W. Hernández, David Calvo Fernández, P. Hernández, N. Pérez","doi":"10.30909/vol.05.01.0110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.05.01.0110","url":null,"abstract":"How and why magmatic systems reactivate and evolve is a critical question for monitoring and hazard mitigation efforts during initial response and ongoing volcanic crisis management. Here we report the first integrated petrological results and interpretation provided to monitoring authorities during the ongoing eruption of Cumbre Vieja, La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain. The first eruptive products comprised simultaneous Strombolian fountain-fed lava flows and tephra fall from near-continuous eruption plumes. From combined field, petrographic and geochemical analyses conducted in the 10 days following sample collection, we infer low percentage mantle melts with a variably equilibrated multimineralic crystal-cargo and compositional fractionation by winnowing during eruptive processes. Hence ‘rapid response’ petrology can untangle complex magmatic and volcanic processes for this eruption, which combined with further study and methodological improvement can increasingly assist in active decision making.","PeriodicalId":33053,"journal":{"name":"Volcanica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49156359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 32

Agriculture and forestry impact assessment for tephra fall hazard: fragility function development and New Zealand scenario application 竹藤坠落危害的农林影响评估:脆弱性函数开发和新西兰情景应用

Volcanica Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.30909/vol.04.02.345367

H. Craig, T. Wilson, C. Magill, C. Stewart, A. Wild

引用次数: 5

Modelling eruptive event sources in distributed volcanic fields 分布式火山场中喷发事件源的建模

Volcanica Pub Date : 2021-12-30 DOI: 10.30909/vol.04.02.325343

E. Gallant, Lawrence Cole, C. Connor, A. Donovan, Danielle Molisee, Julie Morin, Rory A. Walshe, P. Wetmore

引用次数: 3