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‘Market Failure’ Arguments are a Poor Guide to Policy “市场失灵”的论点是一个糟糕的政策指南
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12346
R. Bourne
{"title":"‘Market Failure’ Arguments are a Poor Guide to Policy","authors":"R. Bourne","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12346","url":null,"abstract":"‘Market failure’ is frequently offered as a justification for government intervention in the economy. Proponents of interventions can point to almost limitless examples of markets which do not meet all the criteria for Pareto optimality and argue that government taxation, subsidies or regulation can perfect them, maximising social welfare. But comparing market outcomes with an unattainable and unidentifiable ideal is not useful in a world of imperfect knowledge and government failure. It is better to compare market outcomes against realistic alternatives. Furthermore, even within the market failure paradigm, concepts such as ‘public goods’ and ‘negative externalities’ are routinely misunderstood and inconsistently applied. This leads to predictably poor policy outcomes.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124073300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Time-Series Properties of Quarterly Aggregate Earnings 季度总收益的时间序列性质
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-05-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3565644
Koren M. Jo, William M. Cready
{"title":"Time-Series Properties of Quarterly Aggregate Earnings","authors":"Koren M. Jo, William M. Cready","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3565644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3565644","url":null,"abstract":"This analysis examines the time-series properties of quarterly aggregate earnings. We find that when aggregated, quarterly earnings can be fairly well described as following a simple random walk (RW) process. That is, the best historical time-series predictor for quarterly aggregated earnings is aggregated earnings from the prior quarter and this specification, in particular, outperforms a seasonal random walk (SRW) specification. Hence, unlike firm level earnings, the seasonal earnings lag is not the best single value predictor for aggregate earnings. When we consider more complicated multi-variable RW changes specifications, we find that the use of first or second order autocorrelation provides some improvement in specification. Finally, drawing on prior work by Sadka and Sadka (2009), we demonstrate the empirical relevance of the choice between an RW and an SRW “surprise” specification by identifying substantive differences in how each is predicted by lagged market returns.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126785447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corporate Debt, Capital Flows, and International Business Cycles 公司债务、资本流动和国际商业周期
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-05-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3246555
Tommaso Trani
{"title":"Corporate Debt, Capital Flows, and International Business Cycles","authors":"Tommaso Trani","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3246555","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3246555","url":null,"abstract":"The G7 countries traditionally display home bias in assets (equities and bonds), but over the last 25 years this bias has progressively decreased, especially for equity portfolios. At the same time, the indebtedness of non-financial corporations has tended to increase and comove across countries. Motivated by this evidence, we develop a two-country two-good framework with portfolio choice and with credit market imperfections that lead firms to issue both equities and debt securities. This model can shed some light on how corporate debt affects investors’ financial decisions that are characterized by home bias. We show that the financial frictions and the shocks to these frictions can lower the hedging provided by a country’s equities against changes in labor income as well as the relative holdings of a country’s bonds which are useful to deal with changes in the terms of trade. The financial frictions and shocks can be calibrated to match the reduced equity home bias observed in the data, while improving the ability of the model to explain the business cycles of the G7 countries since the Great Moderation.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131411510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Macroeconomics As Systems Theory 宏观经济学作为系统理论
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-05-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3389058
R. Wagner
{"title":"Macroeconomics As Systems Theory","authors":"R. Wagner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3389058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3389058","url":null,"abstract":"This essay is the penultimate draft of Chapter 1 of a book that carries the working title Macroeconomics as Systems Theory: Emergence, Institutions, and Economic Process. This book examines the material of macroeconomic theory by looking through a different analytical window from what most theorists use. The conventional analytical window shows a national economy as a collection of such aggregate variables as output, employment, investment, and a price level, and seeks to develop theoretical relationships among those variables. The macro level of an economy is accessed directly through the variables created through the national income and product accounts and similar series of aggregate data. In contrast, I treat the relation between micro and macro theories as a relation between the parts of something and the entirety of that thing. Hence, the analytical object to which macro theory pertains entails a higher order of complexity than that of micro theory. Where micro variables are aptly characterized as objects of choice, macro variables are not. To the contrary, macro variables are products of emergent interaction and spontaneous ordering. Furthermore, there is no position of “policymaker” who stands outside the macro system, for all economizing action occurs inside the economic system.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"48 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132463930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Financial Frictions and Stabilization Policies 金融摩擦与稳定政策
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-05-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3388131
Beatriz de Blas, María Malmierca
{"title":"Financial Frictions and Stabilization Policies","authors":"Beatriz de Blas, María Malmierca","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3388131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3388131","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract After the financial crisis of 2007, in many economies, public and private debt have moved in opposite directions, as opposed to pre-2007 evidence. Private deleverage and public debt build-up may affect the recovery path of countries after a recession. In a new Keynesian model with financial frictions, we show that when the economy is hit by a credit risk shock, the negative correlation arising between public and private debt amplifies the response of GDP. In our setup, the traditional monetary-fiscal policy mix is not enough to offset this private-public debt mechanism and therefore bring back economic stability. When macroprudential policy is part of the policy mix, the private-public debt channel can be broken. Interestingly, depending on the macroprudential instrument, a trade-off may arise between private debt and output stabilization.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125501132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
The Indeterminacy School in Macroeconomics 宏观经济学中的不确定性学派
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.3386/w25879
R. Farmer
{"title":"The Indeterminacy School in Macroeconomics","authors":"R. Farmer","doi":"10.3386/w25879","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w25879","url":null,"abstract":"The indeterminacy school in macroeconomics exploits the fact that macroeconomic models often display multiple equilibria to understand real-world phenomena. There are two distinct phases in the evolution of its history. The first phase began as a research agenda at the University of Pennsylvania in the United States and at CEPREMAP in Paris in the early 1980s. This phase used models of dynamic indeterminacy to explain how shocks to beliefs can temporarily influence economic outcomes. The second phase was developed at the University of California Los Angeles in the 2000s. This phase used models of incomplete factor markets to explain how shocks to beliefs can permanently influence economic outcomes. The first phase of the indeterminacy school has been used to explain volatility in financial markets. The second phase of the indeterminacy school has been used to explain periods of high persistent unemployment. The two phases of the indeterminacy school provide a microeconomic foundation for Keynes’ general theory that does not rely on the assumption that prices and wages are sticky.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"171 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121351181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
'The Fiscal Policy Seminar: Its Early Stages' by Richard A. Musgrave 《财政政策研讨会:早期阶段》，作者:理查德·马斯格雷夫
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-04-26 DOI: 10.1108/s0743-41542019000037c007
Maxime Desmarais-Tremblay, Marianne Johnson
{"title":"'The Fiscal Policy Seminar: Its Early Stages' by Richard A. Musgrave","authors":"Maxime Desmarais-Tremblay, Marianne Johnson","doi":"10.1108/s0743-41542019000037c007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/s0743-41542019000037c007","url":null,"abstract":"Alvin Hansen and John Williams’ Fiscal Policy Seminar at Harvard University is widely regarded as a key mechanism for the spread of Keynesianism in the United States. An original and regular participant, Richard A. Musgrave was invited to prepare remarks for the fiftieth anniversary of the seminar in 1988. These were never published, though a copy was filed with Musgrave’s papers at Princeton University. Their reproduction here is important for several reasons. First, it is one of the last reminiscences of the original participants. Second, the remarks make an important contribution to our understanding of the Harvard School of macro-fiscal policy. Third, the remarks provide interesting insights into Musgrave’s views on national economic policymaking as well as the intersection between theory and practice. The reminiscence demonstrates the importance of the seminar in shifting Musgrave’s research focus and moving him to a more pragmatic approach to public finance.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"96 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132644441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
A Quantum Model of Supply and Demand 供需的量子模型
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-04-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3376652
D. Orrell
{"title":"A Quantum Model of Supply and Demand","authors":"D. Orrell","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3376652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3376652","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract One of the most iconic and influential graphics in economics is the figure showing supply and demand as two lines sloping in opposite directions, with the point at which they intersect representing the equilibrium price which perfectly balances supply and demand. The figure, which dates back to the nineteenth century, can be seen as a graphical representation of Adam Smith’s invisible hand, which is said to guide prices to their optimal level, and features in nearly every introductory textbook. However this figure suffers from a number of basic drawbacks. One is that it does not express a dynamical view of market forces, so it is not clear how prices converge on an equilibrium. Another is that it views supply and demand as deterministic, when in fact they are intrinsically uncertain in nature. This paper addresses these issues by using a quantum framework to model supply and demand as, not a cross, but a probabilistic wave, with an associated entropic force. The approach is used to derive from first principles a technique for modeling asset price changes using a quantum harmonic oscillator, that has been previously used and empirically tested in quantum finance. The method is demonstrated for a simple system, and applications in other areas of economics are discussed.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125119401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 20
The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend: A New Condition for Two-sided Matching with Complementarities 我的敌人的敌人就是我的朋友:具有互补的双边匹配的新条件
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-04-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3160118
Hideto Koizumi
{"title":"The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend: A New Condition for Two-sided Matching with Complementarities","authors":"Hideto Koizumi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3160118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3160118","url":null,"abstract":"Stable matchings in the presence of complementarities need not exist. With a canonical form of payoff functions, the conventional sufficient condition for existence substantially restricts the range of pairwise complementarity/substitutability values. This paper provides a new sufficient condition for existence on the maximal range of complementarities/substitutabilities. Our condition also allows for a new class of settings that are relevant to labor markets but violate the conventional condition. We further show that under a minor assumption, our condition is also necessary to guarantee existence. Note that the preferences in our model are not captured by Baldwin and Klemperer (forthcoming).","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126414622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Productivity Growth, Industry Location Patterns and Labor Market Frictions 生产率增长、产业区位模式与劳动力市场摩擦
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-03-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3370002
C. Davis, K. Hashimoto
{"title":"Productivity Growth, Industry Location Patterns and Labor Market Frictions","authors":"C. Davis, K. Hashimoto","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3370002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3370002","url":null,"abstract":"This paper constructs a two-country model of international trade to study how labor market frictions affect industry location patterns, unemployment rates, and fully endogenous productivity growth. We show that when the larger country offers subsidies to labor search costs or reduces unemployment benefits, the domestic unemployment rate falls, causing greater industry concentration and faster productivity growth, but higher unemployment for the smaller country. When similar labor market policies are implemented in the smaller country, however, the resulting fall in domestic unemployment leads to lower industry concentration and slower productivity growth, while lowering unemployment in the larger country.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134184523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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