供需的量子模型

D. Orrell
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引用次数: 20

摘要

经济学中最具代表性和影响力的图形之一是将供给和需求表示为两条相反方向的直线,它们相交的点代表供需完美平衡的均衡价格。这张可以追溯到19世纪的图,可以被看作是亚当·斯密“看不见的手”的图形表示,据说这只手可以将价格引导到最佳水平,几乎每本介绍性教科书都有这只手。然而,这个数字存在一些基本缺陷。其一,它没有表达市场力量的动态观点,因此不清楚价格是如何趋同于均衡的。另一个是,它认为供给和需求是确定的,而实际上它们本质上是不确定的。本文通过使用量子框架来解决这些问题,将供需建模为具有相关熵力的概率波,而不是交叉波。该方法用于从第一性原理中推导出一种使用量子谐振子对资产价格变化建模的技术,该技术先前已在量子金融中使用并经过实证测试。该方法以一个简单的系统为例进行了演示,并讨论了在其他经济学领域的应用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Quantum Model of Supply and Demand
Abstract One of the most iconic and influential graphics in economics is the figure showing supply and demand as two lines sloping in opposite directions, with the point at which they intersect representing the equilibrium price which perfectly balances supply and demand. The figure, which dates back to the nineteenth century, can be seen as a graphical representation of Adam Smith’s invisible hand, which is said to guide prices to their optimal level, and features in nearly every introductory textbook. However this figure suffers from a number of basic drawbacks. One is that it does not express a dynamical view of market forces, so it is not clear how prices converge on an equilibrium. Another is that it views supply and demand as deterministic, when in fact they are intrinsically uncertain in nature. This paper addresses these issues by using a quantum framework to model supply and demand as, not a cross, but a probabilistic wave, with an associated entropic force. The approach is used to derive from first principles a technique for modeling asset price changes using a quantum harmonic oscillator, that has been previously used and empirically tested in quantum finance. The method is demonstrated for a simple system, and applications in other areas of economics are discussed.
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