Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Inflation at Risk 面临通胀风险
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.17016/feds.2020.013
D. López-Salido, Francesca Loria
{"title":"Inflation at Risk","authors":"D. López-Salido, Francesca Loria","doi":"10.17016/feds.2020.013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2020.013","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate how macroeconomic drivers affect the predictive inflation distribution as well as the probability that inflation will run above or below certain thresholds over the near term. This is what we refer to as Inflation-at-Risk–a measure of the tail risks to the inflation outlook. We find that the recent muted response of the conditional mean of inflation to economic conditions does not convey an adequate representation of the overall pattern of inflation dynamics. Analyzing data from the 1970s reveals ample variability in the conditional predictive distribution of inflation that remains even when focusing on the post-2000 period of stable and low mean inflation. We also document that in the United States and in the Euro Area tight financial conditions carry substantial downside inflation risks, a feature overlooked by much of the literature. Our paper offers a new empirical perspective to existing macroeconomic models, showing that changes in credit conditions are also key to understand the dynamics of the inflation tails.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121750095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 32
Household Heterogeneity and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks 家庭异质性与外部冲击的传导
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/W26402
Sergio de Ferra, K. Mitman, F. Romei
{"title":"Household Heterogeneity and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks","authors":"Sergio de Ferra, K. Mitman, F. Romei","doi":"10.3386/W26402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W26402","url":null,"abstract":"We study the role of heterogeneity in the transmission of foreign shocks. We build a Heterogeneous-Agent New-Keynesian Small Open Model Economy (HANKSOME) that experiences a current account reversal. Households' portfolio composition and the extent of foreign currency borrowing are key determinants of the magnitude of the contraction in consumption associated with a sudden stop in capital inflows. The contraction is more severe when households are leveraged and owe debt in foreign currency. In this setting, the revaluation of foreign debt causes a larger contraction in aggregate consumption when debt and leverage are concentrated among poorer households. Closing the output gap via an exchange-rate devaluation may therefore be detrimental to household welfare due to the heterogeneous impact of the foreign debt revaluation. Our HANKSOME framework can rationalize the observed \"fear of floating\" in emerging market economies, even in the absence of contractionary devaluations","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"447 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125774668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 30
Time Consistency Requirement Implies Generalized Minimal State Variable Criterion 时间一致性要求隐含广义最小状态变量准则
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-09-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3457573
William Heartspring
{"title":"Time Consistency Requirement Implies Generalized Minimal State Variable Criterion","authors":"William Heartspring","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3457573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3457573","url":null,"abstract":"We argue that the generalized from of the minimal state variable (MSV) criterion is required to satisfy the time consistency requirement of DSGE models.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133251277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Return-Preserving Bubbles Return-Preserving泡沫
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-08-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3390727
Qiusha Peng
{"title":"Return-Preserving Bubbles","authors":"Qiusha Peng","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3390727","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3390727","url":null,"abstract":"This paper introduces a bubbly asset to a standard macroeconomic model with heterogeneous agents and borrowing constraints. In this tractable quantitative framework, I show the possibility of a return-preserving bubble that absorbs savings with no good investment opportunities. Analysis of the stationary benchmark shows that the equilibrium could be unique, and that low economic growth propagates bubbles. Further exploration of the cyclicality in the bubbly asset shows that its returns are procyclical and it has a low expected rate of return that equals the expected economic growth rate. These cyclical properties are consistent with puzzling empirical results on gold.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121577521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Strategic Referral and On-the-Job Search Equilibrium 策略性转介与在职求职均衡
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-08-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3416759
Jihie Moon
{"title":"Strategic Referral and On-the-Job Search Equilibrium","authors":"Jihie Moon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3416759","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3416759","url":null,"abstract":"A majority of workers use referral when searching for a job, looking for a better match. To study how and to what extent referral affects match quality and aggregate labor market, I build an equilibrium on-the-job search model in which workers have two ways to search, formal application and referral, and information on information on match quality is endogenously transmitted through referral. The model characterizes the extent of information transmission in different jobs as an outcome of a strategic game, and the equilibrium of the game and workers' optimal search interact with each other in general equilibrium. The endogenous information explains why workers in a higher position in the job-ladder benefit more from a referral, which is consistent with empirical findings of this paper. I calibrate the model by matching the observed referral wage premium for different workers. The calibration shows a significant welfare gain 2.42% - 9.01% from referral. The welfare gain is more substantial when underlying match quality is dispersed, or when employers' screening ability is low. The quantitative result indicates that active labor market policy can have significant welfare effects, and the effects are larger in a labor market with high uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132171232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A Theory of Relativity of Cultures, Incomes, and Happiness 文化、收入和幸福的相对性理论
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-07-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3421441
Tobias F. Rötheli
{"title":"A Theory of Relativity of Cultures, Incomes, and Happiness","authors":"Tobias F. Rötheli","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3421441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3421441","url":null,"abstract":"Cultural relativism (Boas, 1887) and hedonic relativism (Easterlin, 1974) are reference points of a theory that addresses international differences in per-capita incomes and variations in the contribution of income to happiness. The pivotal concept in this analysis is diligence. Painstaking effort, i.e., diligence, is needed to produce high quality goods and services. The downside of such efforts lies in the psychological burden that comes with the necessary high level of self-control of the individual worker and the required organizational feedback mechanisms in firms. We present two competing views concerning the determination of diligence. The first, anthropologically inspired, hypothesis states that a society’s cultural forces like cognitive styles, organizational traditions and religion determine the level of diligence. One implication of this perspective is that societies can have income levels that are either too high or too low relative to the welfare optimum. The second view holds that diligence is determined in a maximizing way balancing the gains and pains of diligence in the economic realm. Cross-country data are studied in order to assess the two competing views. The econometric evidence indicates that it is the maximizing view that can explain key aspects of the data.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127875440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Emergent Inequality and Endogenous Dynamics in a Simple Behavioral Macroeconomic Model 一个简单行为宏观经济模型中的新兴不平等和内生动力学
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3415472
Yuki M. Asano, Jakob J. Kolb, J. Heitzig, J. Farmer
{"title":"Emergent Inequality and Endogenous Dynamics in a Simple Behavioral Macroeconomic Model","authors":"Yuki M. Asano, Jakob J. Kolb, J. Heitzig, J. Farmer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3415472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3415472","url":null,"abstract":"Standard macroeconomic models assume that households are rational in the sense that they are perfect utility maximizers, and explain economic dynamics in terms of shocks that drive the economy away from the stead-state. Here we build on a standard macroeconomic model in which a single rational representative household makes a savings decision of how much to consume or invest. In our model households are myopic boundedly rational heterogeneous agents embedded in a social network. From time to time each household updates its savings rate by copying the savings rate of its neighbor with the highest consumption. If the updating time is short, the economy is stuck in a poverty trap, but for longer updating times economic output approaches its optimal value, and we observe a critical transition to an economy with irregular endogenous oscillations in economic output, resembling a business cycle. In this regime households divide into two groups: Poor households with low savings rates and rich households with high savings rates. Thus inequality and economic dynamics both occur spontaneously as a consequence of imperfect household decision making. Our work here supports an alternative program of research that substitutes utility maximization for behaviorally grounded decision making.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129720418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Imperfect Risk-Sharing and the Business Cycle 不完全风险分担与商业周期
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/W26032
David Berger, Luigi Bocola, Alessandro Dovis
{"title":"Imperfect Risk-Sharing and the Business Cycle","authors":"David Berger, Luigi Bocola, Alessandro Dovis","doi":"10.3386/W26032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W26032","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of imperfect risk sharing implied by a class of New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents. The models in this class can be equivalently represented as a representative-agent economy with wedges. These wedges are functions of households’ consumption shares and relative wages, and they identify the key cross-sectional moments that govern the impact of households’ heterogeneity on aggregate variables. We measure the wedges using U.S. household-level data, and combine them with a representative-agent economy to perform counterfactuals. We find that deviations from perfect risk sharing implied by this class of models account for only 7% of output volatility on average, but can have sizable output effects when nominal interest rates reach their lower bound.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115608144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Back to the Real Economy: The Effects of Risk Perception Shocks on the Term Premium and Bank Lending 回归实体经济:风险认知冲击对期限溢价和银行贷款的影响
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-06-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3422829
Kristina Bluwstein, Julieta Yung
{"title":"Back to the Real Economy: The Effects of Risk Perception Shocks on the Term Premium and Bank Lending","authors":"Kristina Bluwstein, Julieta Yung","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3422829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3422829","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework that can account for important macroeconomic and financial moments, given Epstein-Zin preferences, heterogeneous banking and third-order approximation methods that yield a time-varying term premium that feeds back to the real economy. A risk perception shock increases term premia, lowers output, and reduces short-term credit in the private sector in response to higher loan rates and constrained borrowers, as banks rebalance their portfolios. A ‘bad’ credit boom, driven by investors mispricing risk, leads to a more severe recession and is less supportive of economic growth than a ‘good’ credit boom based on fundamentals.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"169 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116696497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Evolution of Inequality In the U.S.: Entrepreneurial Activity and Financial Intermediation 美国不平等的演变:创业活动与金融中介
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-06-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3694351
M. Mohaghegh
{"title":"Evolution of Inequality In the U.S.: Entrepreneurial Activity and Financial Intermediation","authors":"M. Mohaghegh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3694351","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3694351","url":null,"abstract":"There are two major trends in US entrepreneurship since 1975: (1) entrepreneurs' leverage has risen; and (2) their number has fallen. This paper investigates the extent to which these trends have contributed to the observed rise in wealth inequality. I develop a general equilibrium, overlapping-generations model with occupational choice where individuals choose to be workers or entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs borrow for investment and may default on debt. The cost of borrowing, for entrepreneurs, is consistent with their individual risk of default. This explicit modeling of entrepreneurs' default risk is one of the features that distinguishes this paper from the existing literature on wealth inequality. In the model economy, two main mechanisms generate inequality: forward- looking credit constraints that are driven by default risk and stochastic returns to saving. To study changes in wealth inequality over time, I investigate changes in four channels: a greater ability on the part of lenders to make risky loans, an increase in costs of starting a business, a fall in unit cost of borrowing, and a change in exemptions in the bankruptcy code. These changes are consistent with the evolution of the US economy. I examine which channels can reproduce trends in entrepreneurship seen in the data. The first two channels prove to be important. A rise in the ability of lenders to make risky loans and an increase in costs of starting a business lead to a fall in the rate of entrepreneurship and a rise in their average leverage as observed in the data. When these trends are accounted for, the model explains almost all of the rise in the wealth share of the top one percent between 1975 and 2007.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124768762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信