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The Impact of Social Segregation on the Labor Market Outcomes of Low‐Skilled Workers 社会隔离对低技能工人劳动力市场结果的影响
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12324
Gergely Horváth
{"title":"The Impact of Social Segregation on the Labor Market Outcomes of Low‐Skilled Workers","authors":"Gergely Horváth","doi":"10.1111/sjoe.12324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12324","url":null,"abstract":"We study the impact of network homophily on labor market outcomes in a search‐and‐matching model with two job search channels: the formal market and social contacts. There are two worker types: low‐skilled and high‐skilled workers. The homophily level determines whether the referral networks of the two types are mixed or segregated from each other. We show that there exists an intermediate homophily level that minimizes the unemployment rate and maximizes the wages of low‐skilled workers. Complete integration does not maximize the welfare of low‐skilled workers, unless it improves their productivity. We argue that our model can explain the empirical findings on the labor market effects of the Moving‐to‐Opportunity experiment and the integration of immigrants.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114327858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy 货币政策的长期效应
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3529773
Ò. Jordà, Sanjay R. Singh, Alan M. Taylor
{"title":"The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy","authors":"Ò. Jordà, Sanjay R. Singh, Alan M. Taylor","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3529773","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3529773","url":null,"abstract":"Does monetary policy have persistent effects on the productive capacity of the economy? Yes, we find that such effects are economically and statistically significant and last for over a decade based on: (1) identification of exogenous monetary policy fluctuations using the trilemma of international finance; (2) merged data from two new international historical cross-country databases reaching back to the nineteenth century; and (3) econometric methods robust to long-horizon inconsistent estimates. Notably, the capital stock and total factor productivity (TFP) exhibit strong hysteresis, whereas labor does not; and money is non-neutral for a much longer period of time than is customarily assumed. We show that a New Keynesian model with endogenous TFP growth can reconcile these empirical findings.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130020267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 84
The Macroeconomic Implications of Limited Arbitrage 有限套利的宏观经济含义
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2899866
A. Zhang
{"title":"The Macroeconomic Implications of Limited Arbitrage","authors":"A. Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2899866","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2899866","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a simple general equilibrium model to study the interactions between financial arbitrage and the real economy under collateral constraints. In good times, arbitrage activities help boost the production sectors by providing external funds to capital investment. However, when exposed to adverse shocks and panic market reactions, arbitrage also amplifies the financial distress and makes it easier for the economy to fall into self-fulfilling crises. Moreover, the possibility of regime switches triggered by exogenous shocks also complicates the path to recovery. The orchestration of financial distress and pessimistic market anticipation not only slows down the recovery process, but also can trap the economy in a less healthy steady state.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114494437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Nowcasting GDP With a Large Factor Model Space 基于大因子模型空间的临近预测GDP
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3507664
Sercan Eraslan, Maximilian Schröder
{"title":"Nowcasting GDP With a Large Factor Model Space","authors":"Sercan Eraslan, Maximilian Schröder","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3507664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3507664","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a novel time-varying parameters mixed-frequency dynamic factor model which is integrated into a dynamic model averaging framework for macroeconomic nowcasting. Our suggested model can efficiently deal with the nature of the real-time data flow as well as parameter uncertainty and time-varying volatility. In addition, we develop a fast estimation algorithm. This enables us to generate nowcasts based on a large factor model space. We apply the suggested framework to nowcast German GDP. Our recursive out-of-sample forecast evaluation results reveal that our framework is able to generate forecasts superior to those obtained from a naive and more competitive benchmark models. These forecast gains seem to emerge especially during unstable periods, such as the Great Recession, but also remain over more tranquil periods.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123000144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A Quantitative Model of International Lending of Last Resort 国际最后贷款的定量模型
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2810282
Pedro Gete, Givi Melkadze
{"title":"A Quantitative Model of International Lending of Last Resort","authors":"Pedro Gete, Givi Melkadze","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2810282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2810282","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze banking crises and lending of last resort (LOLR) in a quantitative model of financial frictions with bank defaults. LOLR policies generate a tradeoff between financial fragility (due to more highly leveraged banks) and milder crises since the policies are effective once in a crisis. In the calibrated model, the crisis mitigation effect dominates the moral hazard problem and the economy is better off having access to a lender of last resort. We characterize the conditions under which pools of small economies can be sustainable LOLRs. In addition, we assess the ability of China - a country with ample reserves - to be a sustainable international LOLR.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130862737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Immigration in Emerging Countries: A Macroeconomic Perspective 新兴国家的移民:宏观经济视角
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3523393
Agustín Arias, Juan F. Guerra-Salas
{"title":"Immigration in Emerging Countries: A Macroeconomic Perspective","authors":"Agustín Arias, Juan F. Guerra-Salas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3523393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3523393","url":null,"abstract":"Roughly one third of migrants worldwide reside in developing countries, yet most papers on the macroeconomiceffects of immigration focus on advanced economies. We investigate the medium- and long-term effects of immigration in an emerging country, considering a salient feature of this type of economies: the importance of labor informality. We build an overlapping generations model featuring 24 cohorts, an informal sector, and households with heterogeneous skill levels, among other features, that help us match key demographic and economic characteristics of Chile, an emerging country that has recently experienced an important immigration wave. An immigration wave increases the supply of labor, creating downward pressure on wages in the formal sector. Workers respond by reallocating labor effort to the informal sector, which allows them to mitigate the decline in consumption per worker triggered by lower formal-sector wages. Our model, thus, constitutes a framework for the quantitative analysis of immigration in emerging countries.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125742890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics 宏观金融动态中的多模态
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3489435
T. Adrian, Nina Boyarchenko, D. Giannone
{"title":"Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics","authors":"T. Adrian, Nina Boyarchenko, D. Giannone","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3489435","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3489435","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the evolution of the conditional joint distribution of economic and financial conditions. While the joint distribution is approximately Gaussian during normal periods, sharp tightenings of financial conditions lead to the emergence of additional modes. The U.S. economy has historically resolved quickly to the \"good\" mode, but we conjecture that poor policy choices could lead to prolonged periods of multimodality. We argue that multimodality arises naturally in a macro-financial intermediary model with occasionally binding intermediary constraints.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132752237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Monk: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model 蒙克:新凯恩斯主义模型中的抵押贷款
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-10-25 DOI: 10.20955/wp.2019-032
Carlos Garriga, Finn E. Kydland, Roman Šustek
{"title":"Monk: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model","authors":"Carlos Garriga, Finn E. Kydland, Roman Šustek","doi":"10.20955/wp.2019-032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2019-032","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a tractable framework for monetary policy analysis in which both short - and long-term debt affect equilibrium outcomes. This objective is motivated by observations from two literatures suggesting that monetary policy contains a dimension affecting expected future interest rates and thus the costs of long-term financing. In New-Keynesian models, however, long-term loans are redundant assets. We use the model to address three questions: what are the effects of statement vs. action policy shocks; how important are standard New-Keynesian vs. cash flow effects in their transmission; and what is the interaction between these two effects?","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"136 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127153786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
The Labor Theory of Value and Sraffa's Standard Commodity With Markup Pricing 劳动价值论与斯拉法的加价标准商品
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-10-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3468758
R. Vienneau
{"title":"The Labor Theory of Value and Sraffa's Standard Commodity With Markup Pricing","authors":"R. Vienneau","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3468758","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3468758","url":null,"abstract":"This article demonstrates relationships that are transparent in Sraffa’s standard system hold even when relative rates of profit vary persistently among industries. Even with such variations, total constant capital, total variable capital, total surplus value, and the rate of profits are unaltered by evaluation at labor values and at prices of production in Sraffa’s standard system. These results buttress those who see in the standard commodity a solution for Marx’s so-called transformation problem.","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126057444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Near-Rational Equilibria in Heterogeneous-Agent Models: A Verification Method 异构智能体模型的近理性均衡:一种验证方法
Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal Pub Date : 2019-10-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3465120
L. Kogan, Indrajit Mitra
{"title":"Near-Rational Equilibria in Heterogeneous-Agent Models: A Verification Method","authors":"L. Kogan, Indrajit Mitra","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3465120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3465120","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a simulation-based procedure for evaluating approximation accuracy of numerical solutions of general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents. We measure the approximation accuracy by the magnitude of the welfare loss suffered by agents from following sub-optimal policies. Our procedure allows agents to have knowledge of the future paths of the economy under suitably imposed costs of foresight. This method is general, straightforward to implement, and can be used in conjunction with various solution algorithms. We illustrate our method in two contexts: the incomplete-markets model of Krusell and Smith (1998) and the heterogeneous firm model of Khan and Thomas (2008).","PeriodicalId":330048,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128740235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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