Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications最新文献

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Statistical Inference for Optimisation of Drug Delivery from Stents 优化支架给药的统计推断
L. Paun, André Fensterseifer Schmidt, S. McGinty, D. Husmeier
{"title":"Statistical Inference for Optimisation of Drug Delivery from Stents","authors":"L. Paun, André Fensterseifer Schmidt, S. McGinty, D. Husmeier","doi":"10.11159/icsta22.138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11159/icsta22.138","url":null,"abstract":"The current study employs state-of-the-art optimisation methods for estimation of unknown parameters in a mathematical model of highly non-linear partial differential equations describing drug delivery from a drug-eluding stent. A classical optimisation scheme entails enormous run times due to the need to numerically solve the computationally expensive equations a large number of times to obtain the objective (black-box) function. We address this issue by employing an efficient global optimisation scheme, i.e. Bayesian optimisation (BO). This scheme aims to find the optimum of the black-box function by using an emulator of the original objective function to select the next query point (while balancing exploration and exploitation), and sequentially refining the emulator. Additionally, the proposed optimisation scheme is adapted to scenarios where there are hidden constraints in parameter space by incorporating a classifier that learns the infeasible parameter domains. We demonstrate that given a fixed number of expensive mathematical model evaluations, the proposed BO scheme outperforms state-of-the-art classical optimisation methods in terms of accuracy. present study focuses on applying state-of-the-art optimisation methods, namely BO in a drug-eluting stent application.","PeriodicalId":325859,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications","volume":"85 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128424320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Myocardial Perfusion Classification Using A Markov Random Field Constrained Gaussian Mixture Model 基于马尔科夫随机场约束的高斯混合模型的心肌灌注分类
Yalei Yang, Hao Gao, C. Berry, A. Radjenovic, D. Husmeier
{"title":"Myocardial Perfusion Classification Using A Markov Random Field Constrained Gaussian Mixture Model","authors":"Yalei Yang, Hao Gao, C. Berry, A. Radjenovic, D. Husmeier","doi":"10.11159/icsta22.146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11159/icsta22.146","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":325859,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127544339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effect of Monthly Mean Temperature on Accidental Mortality in the Elderly: A Time-Series Analysis in Tokyo, Kyoto, Sapporo, Japan 月平均气温对老年人意外死亡的影响:日本东京、京都、札幌的时间序列分析
M. Kanamori
{"title":"Effect of Monthly Mean Temperature on Accidental Mortality in the Elderly: A Time-Series Analysis in Tokyo, Kyoto, Sapporo, Japan","authors":"M. Kanamori","doi":"10.11159/icsta22.141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11159/icsta22.141","url":null,"abstract":"Extended Abstract Based on monthly mortality from Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD) , we have studied on the relationship between temperature and disease deaths in Kyoto and Sapporo [1,2]. As a result, the Optimum Temperature (OT) indicated the lowest mortality showed the difference between the two cities, while the 84th percentile of daily mean temperature in each city showed the minimum mortality rate. As the relationship between plague development and temperature has been clarified [3], it is important to study the relationship between temperature and disease in order to control diseases. However, there are few papers in Japan that study the relationship between temperature and accidental death such as falls for elderly. Finding those OT values and epidemiological threshold quantities is urgent to minimize elderly mortality. The purpose of this presentation is to clarify the relationship between the mortality rate of the elderly from injury and certain other consequences of external causes (ICD10, XIX) and the temperature in Japanese cities. obtain","PeriodicalId":325859,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications","volume":"123 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134174553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Clustering and Multidimensional Scaling for Individual Difference Extraction 个体差异提取的聚类和多维尺度
M. Sato-Ilic
{"title":"Clustering and Multidimensional Scaling for Individual Difference Extraction","authors":"M. Sato-Ilic","doi":"10.11159/icsta22.162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11159/icsta22.162","url":null,"abstract":"- This paper proposes methods to obtain difference among subjects by using the degree of reliability of each subject based on the results of fuzzy clustering and multidimensional scaling (MDS). In addition, new fuzzy clustering and MDS, including the weights of reliability scores, are proposed to classify subjects. When we observe data consisting of values of objects with respect to variables, and such data are observed over multiple subjects, capturing the difference among subjects is important in many fields. In this paper, the degree of reliability is obtained through the optimality of convex clustering. Based on this idea, it is shown that the same difference over the subjects can be obtained, regardless of the difference in obtained latent structures, which are the result of dynamic fuzzy clustering and the result of MDS by a numerical example. From this, we show the robustness of the proposed reliability concerning the variety of the obtained latent structures of data.","PeriodicalId":325859,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133970866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On Consistent Hypothesis Testing In General Hilbert Spaces 一般Hilbert空间中的一致假设检验
D. Gaigall
{"title":"On Consistent Hypothesis Testing In General Hilbert Spaces","authors":"D. Gaigall","doi":"10.11159/icsta22.157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11159/icsta22.157","url":null,"abstract":"Extended Abstract Inference on the basis of high-dimensional and functional data are two topics which are discussed frequently in the current statistical literature. A possibility to include both topics in a single approach is working on a very general space for the underlying observations, such as a separable Hilbert space. We propose a general method for consistently hypothesis testing on the basis of random variables with values in separable Hilbert spaces. We avoid concerns with the curse of dimensionality due to a projection idea. We apply well-known test statistics from nonparametric inference to the projected data and integrate over all projections from a specific set and with respect to suitable probability measures. In contrast to classical methods, which are applicable for real-valued random variables or random vectors of dimensions lower than the sample size, the tests can be applied to random vectors of dimensions larger than the sample size or even to functional and high-dimensional data. In general, resampling procedures such as bootstrap or permutation are suitable to determine critical values. The idea can be extended to the case of incomplete observations. Moreover, we develop an efficient algorithm for implementing the method.","PeriodicalId":325859,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116976146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unsupervised Classification of Categorical Time Series through Innovative Distances 基于创新距离的分类时间序列无监督分类
Ángel López-Oriona, J. A. Vilar, P. D’Urso
{"title":"Unsupervised Classification of Categorical Time Series through Innovative Distances","authors":"Ángel López-Oriona, J. A. Vilar, P. D’Urso","doi":"10.11159/icsta22.111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11159/icsta22.111","url":null,"abstract":"- In this paper, two novel distances for nominal time series are introduced. Both of them are based on features describing the serial dependence patterns between each pair of categories. The first dissimilarity employs the so-called association measures, whereas the second computes correlation quantities between indicator processes whose uniqueness is guaranteed from standard stationary conditions. The metrics are used to construct crisp algorithms for clustering categorical series. The approaches are able to group series generated from similar underlying stochastic processes, achieve accurate results with series coming from a broad range of models and are computationally efficient. An extensive simulation study shows that the devised clustering algorithms outperform several alternative procedures proposed in the literature. Specifically, they achieve better results than approaches based on maximum likelihhod estimation, which take advantage of knowing the real underlying procedures. Both innovative dissimilarities could be useful for practitioners in the field of time series clustering.","PeriodicalId":325859,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications","volume":"06 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131174411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Prior Dependence in L1-regularized Bayesian Regression l1正则贝叶斯回归的先验相关性
Chris Hans
{"title":"Prior Dependence in L1-regularized Bayesian Regression","authors":"Chris Hans","doi":"10.11159/icsta22.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11159/icsta22.007","url":null,"abstract":"The regularization of regression coefficients has become a central component of research in the statistical sciences due to its importance in applied data analysis in many other fields of science. From a Bayesian perspective, regularization is imposed naturally via prior distributions that probabilistically penalize large values of the coefficients. Research into prior distributions with connections to L1-norm penalization (e.g., “Bayesian lasso” and the “Bayesian elastic net”) has generated important insights about the nature of Bayesian penalized regression in practice. Though widely used, many such priors are restricted by the assumption that the regression coefficients are a priori independent. While independence may be reasonable in some data-analytic settings, having the ability to incorporate dependence in these prior distributions would allow for greater modeling flexibility. I describe a general class of “orthant normal” priors for regression coefficients that allows for prior dependence between regression coefficients. An interesting special case is an L1-regularized version of Zellner’s g prior. Though simulation-based posterior inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is made difficult by an intractable function in the posterior density, I discuss computationally efficient methods for estimating this function that allow for full posterior inference about all model parameters.","PeriodicalId":325859,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126090852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Risk Measure Based on ARMA-TGARCH-GED-Copula Model 基于ARMA-TGARCH-GED-Copula模型的风险度量
Kun Wang, Wanrong Li
{"title":"Risk Measure Based on ARMA-TGARCH-GED-Copula Model","authors":"Kun Wang, Wanrong Li","doi":"10.11159/icsta22.130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11159/icsta22.130","url":null,"abstract":"- Financial return series often show the characteristics of peak and thick tail, bias, and volatility aggregation effect. In this paper, ARMA-TGARCH is introduced to model each asset return series, the standard residual term of which is assumed to obey the generalized error distribution (GED). The joint distribution model with a multivariate copula function is used to characterize the dependence structure between high-dimensional asset variables. Combining the Monte Carlo simulation method, the return series of each asset is generated, and the VaR and CVaR of portfolio investment are calculated. The empirical research shows that there is obvious autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity effect, and asymmetric volatility in the return series of the representative stock indexes of China and the United States, which is suitable for ARMA-TGARCH-GED to fit marginal distribution. The failure frequency test of VaR prediction proves that ARMA-TGARCH-GED-Copula model can be better applied to the risk measure of portfolio investment.","PeriodicalId":325859,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications","volume":"2016 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127451815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Jackknife Empirical Likelihood Methods for Testing the Distributional Symmetry 检验分布对称性的折刀经验似然方法
Brian Pidgeon, Yichuan Zhao
{"title":"Jackknife Empirical Likelihood Methods for Testing the Distributional Symmetry","authors":"Brian Pidgeon, Yichuan Zhao","doi":"10.11159/icsta22.145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11159/icsta22.145","url":null,"abstract":"In this talk, we consider a general k -th correlation coefficient between the density function and distribution function of a continuous variable as a measure of symmetry and asymmetry. We make statistical inference of the k -th correlation coefficient by using jackknife empirical likelihood (JEL) and its variations to construct confidence intervals. The JEL statistic is shown to be asymptotically a standard chi-squared distribution. We compare our methods to the previous empirical likelihood (EL) techniques of [1] and show the JEL possesses better small sample properties compared with existing methods. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the performance of the proposed estimators. We also use our proposed methods to analyze two real datasets for illustration.","PeriodicalId":325859,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131310369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Phase Distributions of Complex Multitaper Transfer Function Estimates 复杂多锥度传递函数估计的相位分布
Skye Griffith, G. Takahara, Wesley S. Burr
{"title":"Phase Distributions of Complex Multitaper Transfer Function Estimates","authors":"Skye Griffith, G. Takahara, Wesley S. Burr","doi":"10.11159/icsta22.115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11159/icsta22.115","url":null,"abstract":"– In time series analysis, trends are often studied via sequences of observations taken with respect to, as the name suggests, time. Time series regression models are a classic way of viewing a response time series as a function of one or multiple predictor time series. However, the default assumptions of these models fail to account for the data’s temporal trends. By instead building a complex regression model in the frequency domain, these assumptions can be relaxed, providing insight into what coherency is present in the model. The coefficient of the resulting complex regression model is known as a transfer function of frequency. There are several techniques used to estimate transfer functions, but all are subject to the bias-variance trade-off occurring as a byproduct of transformation to the frequency domain. Multitaper spectrum estimation has been shown to minimize spectral leakage (broad-band bias) while providing flexibility in terms of bandwidth selection (variance). Thus, exploration of Multitaper Transfer Function Estimators (MTFEs) is an alluring topic of research. Previous work has explored distribution theory for the modulus of MTFEs, in addition to MTFE variance across simulations, and has revealed effective methods of signal detection more robust to frequency modulation than classic alternatives. However, the distribution of an MTFE's phase has not been explored. This paper demonstrates that for models whose underlying noise is stationary and Gaussian, the MTFE at a given frequency is distributed as a complex Gaussian random variable. From the perspective of the time domain, one can infer parameters of the phase distribution of the MTFE by way of estimating the autocovariance function of the response. This phase distribution provides information which may be useful for signal detection.","PeriodicalId":325859,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122883201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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