Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR最新文献

{"title":"Analysis of Death Risk of COVID-19 under Incomplete Information1","authors":"Chongfu Huang","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200709.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200709.002","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 outbreak was first reported in the city of Wuhan, central China’s Hubei Province, in December 2019. Experts have attributed the outbreak to a novel coronavirus that has since spread across China and abroad with confirmed cases exceeding 234,000 globally, death toll of coronavirus tops 11,000 [1], on March 21, 2020. The disease has been named “coronavirus disease 2019” (abbreviated “COVID-19”). When the disease started to spread in China, authorities reacted with historically unprecedented quarantines of cities. On February 27, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) raised the risk assessment of COVID-19 from “high” to “very high” at global level. However, the concept of the risk of COVID-19 is still unclear today, and risk communication is not smooth. Before the outbreak, information about the disease was incomplete and traditional risk analysis tools were unable to provide any support. Holding the hope that the virus does not pass from human to human, meanwhile some political considerations, people lost the opportunity to control the source of infection early, causing serious losses. If a more reliable risk analysis was carried out before and at the beginning of the outbreak, and if a strengthen crisis response was took immediately, the situation will certainly be much better. It is the same for almost all disasters, the story after the events is easy to tell, but the risk analysis before the events is not easy. One reason is that the information available for risk analysis before and at the beginning of the outbreak is incomplete.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"48 7","pages":"43-53"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72417664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Competency of the Infantry Troops of the Nepalese Army in Disaster Response” [Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response 9(2), (2019), 62–73]","authors":"S. B. Malla, S. Hasegawa, R. Dahal","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200522.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200522.001","url":null,"abstract":"In the original article, there were mistakes in introduction section paragraph 11, paragraph 13, paragraph 14 and paragraph 15. These paragraphs contain wrong abbreviation ‘SKK’. The abbreviation should be ‘SSK’. The wrong abbreviation was also written in paragraph 1 of method section, table 1 and paragraph 2 of effect of rank and training in competition section, and paragraph 1 and 3 of discussion section. Similarly paragraph 11 and paragraph 15 of introduction section, and paragraph 1 of method of analysis section also contain wrong word ‘Nepali’. They should be replaced by word ‘Nepalese’. The corrected paragraphs and table are given below.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"1 1","pages":"119-120"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76506742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Discussing the Need to Manage Uncertainty Relating to Users in Road Tunnel Fire Risk Assessment","authors":"Panagiotis Ntzeremes, K. Kirytopoulos, V. Leopoulos","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200507.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200507.002","url":null,"abstract":"Although studies indicate the significant growth of maritime and the rise of intermodal transportation during the last decade, they also pinpoint that road transportation continues to hold the largest share in the transportation sector worldwide, having a considerable margin from the rest [1]. In that view, modern roads face the challenge to provide an adequate, intelligent as well as safe road network. Therefore, road infrastructure must be formed in order to cope with the arisen challenges. Although each part of the infrastructure should fulfill these challenges, special emphasis should be primarily given on its critical elements, such as tunnels [2].","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"51 1","pages":"12-18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90577121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on the Contagion Mechanism of Associated Credit Risk in the Supply Chain","authors":"Xiaofeng Xie, Yang Yang, Jing Gu, Zongfang Zhou","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200507.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200507.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"25 1","pages":"19-22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82288730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Review the Parameters of Historical Strong Earthquakes in Tianshui and Its Surrounding Areas","authors":"清 Wu吴Qing","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200421.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200421.002","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"70 1","pages":"1-5"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74670943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study on Mutation Mechanism of Victim’s Psychological Behavior State after Major Natural Disasters","authors":"Xuan-hua Xu, Yushi Liu, Z. Zhang","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200415.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200415.001","url":null,"abstract":"With the increasingly prominent problem of global climate change, the frequency of all kinds of natural disasters is increasing, and the scope of impact is becoming wider and wider. According to the statistics of the civil affairs bureau, all kinds of natural disasters in China have caused 243,533 million disasters, 1583 deaths, 6017 million emergency relocation in 2014, and the direct economic losses have reached 337,38 billion yuan [1]. Natural disasters not only cause a large number of casualties and economic losses, but also cause varying degrees of psychological trauma to the affected people, which may affect individual behavior in the short-term or even in the long-term [2]. Many cases have shown that anxiety in disaster scenarios can urge the affected children to make some aggressive behaviors [3], these experiences of negative psychological behaviors will increase the difficulty of rescue and resettlement. If it is not alleviated in time and effectively, it will accumulate gradually, and easily turn into illegal behavior, or even evolve into group events [4] and reduce the stability and safety of society [5,6]. Behavior analysis of the disaster victims plays an important role in crisis management, disaster emergency response and implementation of evacuation plan [7], and is also one of the core scientific issues in emergency management of public emergencies [8]. Therefore, in order to rescue effectively and block the evolution and upgrading of individual events, and scientifically formulate rescue strategies after the disaster, it is necessary to deeply analyze the mutation mechanism of individual psychological behavior state of the affected people after natural disasters. Many researchers have studied the psychology and behavior of the people affected by climate change and natural disasters. Doherty and Clayton [9] analyzed three effects of climate change on people’s psychology: direct psychological impact (ASD or PTSD); indirect psychological impact (decreased wellbeing); social psychological impact (social conflict). Norris et al. [10] analyzed more than 160 empirical studies on disasters from 1981 to 2001 and found that the occurrence of nature disasters would bring people some shortor long-term psychological problems, such as specific psychological injury, mental and physical disorders. Aiming at whether there is a correlation between natural disasters and suicide behavior, Kõlves et al. [11] has analyzed the existing empirical studies and found that different types of natural disasters have different effects on suicide rate, and suicide rate is mainly affected by economic conditions. Hu et al. [12] believed that people had panic behavior in evacuation and temporary resettlement after the disaster, and panic behavior was infectious, which made more affected groups panic. Helbing et al. [13] also simulated the irrational panic escape behavior of groups under the emergency. Panic psychology and irrational behavior are easy to lead to s","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"50 1","pages":"27-36"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79799095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Kernel Density Estimation of White Noise for Non-diversifiable Risk in Decision Making","authors":"E. A. Shileche, P. Weke, T. Achia","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200421.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200421.003","url":null,"abstract":"Many businesses make profit yearly and tend to invest some of the profit so that they can cushion their organizations against any future unknown events that can affect their current profit making. Since future happenings in businesses cannot be predicted accurately, estimates are made using experience or past data which are not exact. The probability element (which is normally determined by experience or past data) is important in investment decision making process since it helps address the problem of uncertainty. Many of the investment decision making methods have incorporated the expectation and risk of an event in making investment decisions. Most of those that use risk account for diversifiable risk (non-systematic risk) only thus limiting the predictability element of these investment methods since total risk are not properly accounted for. A few of these methods include the certainty (probability) element. These include value at risk method which uses covariance matrices as total risk and the binning system which always assumes normal distribution and thus does not take care of discrete cases. Moreover comparison among various entities lacks since the probabilities derived are for individual entities and are just quantile values. Finite investment decision making using real market risk (non-diversifiable risk) was undertaken in this study. Non-diversifiable risk (systematic risk) estimates of a portfolio of stocks determined by a real risk weighted pricing model are used as initial data. The variance of non-diversifiable risk is estimated as a random variable referred to as random error (white noise). The estimator is used to calculate estimates of white noise (wn). A curve estimation of the wn is made using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). KDE is a non-parametric way to estimate the probability density function of a random variable. KDE is a fundamental data smoothing problem where inferences about the population are made, based on a finite data sample. This is used to derive probability estimates of the non-diversifiable risks of the various stocks. This enables determination of total risk with given probabilities of its occurrence thus facilitating decision making under risky and uncertain situations as well as accentuating comparison among the portfolio of stocks.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"128 1","pages":"6-11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74505954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk Analysis and Crisis Management of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19✩","authors":"未希 Weixi徐Xu, 选华 Xuanhua徐Xu","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200421.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200421.001","url":null,"abstract":"After the outbreak of new coronavirus pneumonia, all regions have responded to take measures. Emergency decision-making plays an important role, directly related to the safety of the people, and more deeply will affect the future of the country. In this paper, we try to use the wisdom of large groups which are distributed in the social network to deal with the relevant indicators of the group big data decision-making model under the maximum likelihood estimation of the complementary judgment matrix, to establish the epidemic risk assessment system of infectious diseases, and to realize the group decision-making and risk analysis based on the big data.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84465239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Diamond Princess Cruise: An Accidentally Experimental Model of COVID-19","authors":"L. Liu 刘","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200415.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200415.002","url":null,"abstract":"On February 2020, the Diamond Princess Cruise, which left Japan, was obliged to stay at sea for 14 days-quarantine after it was found that a Hong Kong passenger had been diagnosed SARS-COV2 pneumonia after disembarking. As a result shocked the world, an outbreak of infection occurred on board; the number of infected people increased rapidly; and about 20% of the population infected. Finally, the quarantine is completely failed and has to be ended officially. The crowd was evacuated back to their own country. The incident can be seen as an experimental model of virus infection in an independently enclosed building, showing powerful air-borne transmission of the virus to pass through public ventilation ducts and crevices in doors and windows. There have trend that no is immune; there have no racial differences and all world people are generally susceptible. The populations of asymptomatic recessive infection are large and are a dangerous infection source. The failure of closed quarantine indicates that evacuation is the best quarantine and protection. To sum up, mistake quarantine = forced infection; ineffective quarantine = condoning spreading; excessive quarantine = wasting resources. The only right way is to evacuate the infected immediately and disperse the uninfected quickly.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90969973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Summary of Intelligent Guidance System for Fire Emergency Evacuation in Large Buildings","authors":"孟. Xiangzhi相至Meng, 郭. Rongmei荣梅Guo, 胡. Xiaobing小兵Hu","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200117.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200117.003","url":null,"abstract":"With the continuous development of the social economy and the deepening of urbanization, large buildings are increasing, and disaster risks associated with large buildings, such as fire risks, are also increasing. Because of large buildings, such as shopping malls, business offices, transportation hubs buildings, high-rise commercial buildings are often crowded, it is essential in reducing fire casualties to guide people effectively in the buildings through the escape corridors, and to evacuate in a timely, rapid and efficient manner in the event of a fire. Therefore, in order to fully protect the safety of life and property, it is necessary to establish a fire protection intelligent guidance system. The research of intelligent guidance system for fire emergency evacuation in large buildings at home and abroad was reviewed in this paper. Three key problems of the fire detection, the evacuation path planning and the evacuation guidance design are presented. The development trend of the intelligent guidance system for fire emergency evacuation is discussed from two aspects, namely, the evacuation path planning methods and the guidance system hardware research.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"52 1","pages":"194-202"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87984907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}