The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-02-07DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0009
S. Osterlind
{"title":"Probably a Distribution","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0009","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter is all about Carl Gauss, his life, and his accomplishments, including his work in plotting the orbits for Ceres, which he did while still a teenager and which set his reputation. The chapter tells, too, how and when he invented and used his method of least squares and of his dispute with Legendre on who invented it first. One of his most significant accomplishments is his devising (and proof) of the normal probability density function, or, more familiarly, the standard normal curve. This is described and its import and application to modern times is discussed. Also, there is a brief discussion of biographical events and details of his life, such as his reclusive nature in his hometown of Göttingen, and his caring for his ailing mother and then his first and second wives. Some details of his impact today and lasting accomplishments are also provided.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121366295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-02-07DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0005
S. Osterlind
{"title":"The Bell Curve Takes Shape","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0005","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter tells how quantification as an idea in spirit is moving across the Atlantic to the new country of the United States, and its relevance to the signing of the Declaration of Independence. Probability theory begins to take off with Abraham de Moivre as he investigates distributions for numbers. He devises a histogram and begins a study of “errors” in a distribution in his Doctrine of Chances. Three terms are explained: “probability,” “odds,” and “likelihood.” What made the advances in mathematics, statistics, and especially probability theory so prominent was both the sheer volume of new ideas and the absolutely torrential pace at which these developments came.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125933235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-02-07DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0015
S. Osterlind
{"title":"Related to Relativity","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0015","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter provides the context for the early twentieth-century events contributing to quantification. It was the golden age of scientific exploration, with explorers like David Livingstone, Sir Richard Burton, and Sir Ernest Shackleton, and intellectual pursuits, such as Hilbert’s set of unsolved problems in mathematics. However, most of the chapter is devoted to discussing the last major influencer of quantification: Albert Einstein. His life and accomplishments, including his theory of relativity, make up the final milestone on our road to quantification. The chapter describes his time in Bern, especially in 1905, when he published several famous papers, most particularly his law of special relativity, and later, in 1915, when he expanded it to his theory of general relativity. The chapter also provides a layperson’s description of the space–time continuum. Women of major scientific accomplishments are mentioned, including Madame Currie and the mathematician Maryam Mirzakhani.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126489964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-02-07DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0008
S. Osterlind
{"title":"Coming to Everyman","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0008","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter focuses on how quantification began to increase in the everyday life of ordinary people, who are represented in this chapter by the allegorical figure “Everyman” (from the fifteenth-century anonymous morality play Everyman). It discusses the invention of the chronometer and explores the effect that the increasing availability of luxury items such as sugar, as well as the quantifying ideas that were coming into use at that time, had on the general populace. The chapter then introduces Pierre-Simon Laplace, who assiduously worked to bring the newly formed probability theory to Everyman, especially through his efforts on the orthodrome problem in Traité de mécanique céleste (Celestial Mechanics), his ideas on scientific determinism (symbolized by “Laplace’s demon”), and his General Principles for the Calculus of Probabilities. The chapter also introduces Joseph-Louis Lagrange, whose work on the calculus of variations had a great influence on Laplace.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116597700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-02-07DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0006
S. Osterlind
{"title":"Evidence and Probability Data","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0006","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter discusses evidence and probability data with particular attention on Bayesian estimation. The Protestant ethic slowed probability developments in the United States, but the idea of quantification continued apace in England and on the Continent. In particular, Thomas Bayes invented a simple but profound mathematical means to connect outcomes with causes with conditional probabilities and Bayesian estimation. The chapter explains conditional probabilities and Bayesian logic, giving several examples, including incidence of accurate cancer diagnosis with inexact diagnostics. The chapter also introduces Bayes’s magnum opus An Essay Toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances and gives his example of rolling billiard balls on a billiard table to show Bayes’s theorem.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131127877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-02-07DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0017
S. Osterlind
{"title":"The Arts and the Age of the Chip","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0017","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter provides the capstone to this book’s argument that humankind has adopted quantification as a worldview. It describes how quantification has permeated our lives, far beyond just academic formulas to all domains, whether mathematical or otherwise. Examples are given first from the intersection of mathematics and art in da Vinci’s drawings. Next, the connection between mathematics and music is made, with a discussion of J. S. Bach’s The Well-Tempered Clavier and music theory’s circle of fifths. The chapter then provides an elementary explanation of artificial intelligence (or AI, as it is commonly known) with Bayesian logic, and a discussion of Nick Bostrom’s idea’s that the possibility of a computer having “superintelligence” poses a supreme danger to humanity. In addition, the chapter describes Max Tegmark’s innovative work in astrophysics and his belief in a wholly mathematical universe as part of a larger four-system multiverse.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133697097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-02-07DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0001
S. Osterlind
{"title":"The Remarkable Story","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0001","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter introduces the extraordinary story of “quantification,” the perception of seeing things—both the everyday and the extraordinary—through the lens of quantifiable events (i.e., via odds, probability, and likelihood). This concept arose when people learned how to measure uncertainty, through the development of probability theory. The chapter presents many examples of using probability for measuring uncertainty and sets the historical context for the following chapters by showing how the idea of quantification developed during a relatively brief period in history, roughly from the end of Napoleonic era through the start of World War I. This era saw a torrent of mathematical developments, specifically, the invention of probability theory, the bell curve, regressions, Bayesian conditional probabilities, and psychometrics. The chapter also explains that this book is not a history of probability theory but a story of how history and mathematics came together to fashion the current worldview.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114887722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-02-07DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0003
S. Osterlind
{"title":"Beginning in Observation","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0003","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter introduces the idea of “observation.” Early astronomers only used their “best observation.” However, later on, astronomers started using the mean of all their observations instead. Seeing shortcomings in this approach, the eighteenth-century astronomer Tobias Mayer developed a data-gathering protocol to generate what he termed a “combination of observations.” Unfortunately, as his contemporary, the mathematician Leonard Euler, did not view this method as being particularly advantageous, it was rejected at the time, although Euler did contribute to it indirectly through his codification of modern mathematical terminology. The chapter goes on to discuss Isaac Newton, who set the ideas for the scientific method and modern calculus, and Blaise Pascal, who supplied many of the missing pieces to Newton’s calculus. In addition, a brief, lay-person’s description (nontechnical) of calculus is provided, along with examples of where it is used.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131323997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-02-07DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0016
S. Osterlind
{"title":"Psychometrics and Psychological Tests","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0016","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter is devoted to describing the notables of psychometrics and psychological testing and how their efforts contributed to quantification. By this point, quantification is decidedly moving into realms of psychology and sociology. This chapter focuses on the largest evidence for this: educational testing and psychological testing. It addresses the very personal nature of such tests, and cites many kinds of such test, including in the cognitive behavioral and psychomotor domains. A very brief introduction to reliability and validity is given, with a focus on psychometric analyses. Most of the chapter is devoted to describing the contributions of four individuals who were instrumental to founding modern testing: Francis Galton, Wilhelm Wundt, James McKeen Cattell, and Alfred Binet.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130293011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-02-07DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0014
S. Osterlind
{"title":"Discrepancy to Variability","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0014","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter describes quantification during the late nineteenth century. Then, most ordinary people were gaining an overt awareness, and probability notions were seeping into everyday conversation and decision-making. However, new forms of abstract mathematics were being developed, albeit with some opposition from Lewis Carroll (Charles Dodgson), who wanted to preserve traditionalist views of Euclidian geometry. The chapter introduces William Gossett, who worked in the laboratory of the Guinness brewery and developed “t-distribution,” which was published as “Student’s t-test.” It also describes his friendship with Sir Ronald Fisher, who developed many statistical hypothesis testing methods, published in The Design of Experiments, such as the ANOVA procedure, and the F ratio. Fisher also developed many research designs for hypothesis testing, both simple and complex, including the Latin squares design, as well as providing a classic description of inferential testing in the thought experiment called “the lady tasting tea.”","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128876591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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