The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-02-07DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0018
S. Osterlind
{"title":"The Sum of It All","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0018","url":null,"abstract":"This concluding chapter reviews the long road to quantification, drawing especially on ideas introduced in Chapter 1, but also mentioning highlights from the other chapters. It considers two thought experiments, where a thought experiment is defined as an investigation into a scientific question that is carried out only in the imagination. The first is, suppose quantification had not taken place and we had not transformed our worldview to it. The second is, from our current quantified worldview, how we might evolve in the future? The chapter concludes with a quote from Shakespeare’s King Lear is given, describing a state of internal happiness.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117087706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-02-07DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0004
S. Osterlind
{"title":"The Patterns of Large Numbers","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0004","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter advances the historical context for quantification by describing the climate of the day—social, cultural, political, and intellectual—as fraught with disquieting influences. Forces leading to the French Revolution were building, and the colonists in America were fighting for secession from England. During this time, three important number theorems came into existence: the binomial theorem, the law of large numbers, and the central limit theorem. Each is described in easy-to-understand language. These are fundamental to how numbers operate in a probability circumstance. Pascal’s triangle is explained as a shortcut solving some binomial expansions, and Jacob Bernoulli’s Ars Conjectandi, which presents the study of measurement “error” for the first time, is discussed. In addition, the central limit theorem is explained in terms of its relevance to probability theory, and its utility today.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"136 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132062840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-02-07DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0013
S. Osterlind
{"title":"Interrelated and Correlated","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0013","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter describes quantifying events in America and their historical context. The cotton gin is invented and has tremendous impact on the country, bringing sentiments of taxation and slavery to the fore, for state’s rights. Events leading to the American Civil War are described, as are other circumstances leading to the Industrial Revolution, first in England and then moving to America. Karl Pearson is introduced with description of his The Grammar of Science, as well as his approach to scholarship as first defining a philosophy of science, which has dominated much of scientific research from the time of the book’s publication to today. Pearson’s invention of the coefficient of correlation is described, and his other contributions to statistics are mentioned: standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, and goodness of fit, as well as his formal introduction of the contingency table.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133209039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-01-24DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0007
S. Osterlind
{"title":"At Least Squares","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0007","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter focuses on the next important mathematical invention: the method of least squares. First, it sets the historical context for its invention by describing the events in France and Germany leading up to the French Revolution. Next, the chapter describes how the method of least squares was invented twice, first by Adrien-Marie Legendre (as an appendix to his celestial investigations in Nouvelles méthodes pour la détermination des orbites des comètes), and then in a more sophisticated version by Carl Gauss, in Disquisitiones Arithmeticae. After that, an easy-to-understand description of method itself is given. Thus, the chapter goes from observation to probability and on to prediction, through regression, discussing ordinary least squares (OLS), intercepts, and slopes.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125116466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Error of TruthPub Date : 2019-01-24DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0012
S. Osterlind
{"title":"Regression to the Mean","authors":"S. Osterlind","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198831600.003.0012","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter focuses on two events that started the transformation to a quantifying worldview for the general public: (1) developments in transportation, especially the invention of the train (meaning people and goods could travel further) and (2) the consequent tremendous economic expansion which led to a full-blown industrial revolution, first in England and then in America. Work by Charles Darwin showed the broadening impact of quantitative thinking on the discipline of sociology. The chapter also discusses the accomplishments of Francis Galton, including his landmark work Hereditary Genius, the invention of Galton’s bean machine (“quincunx”), which demonstrated the central limit theorem, and his Anthropometric Laboratory, which he set up at the International Health Exhibition to measure mental faculties. Galton also discovered the concept of correlation and “reversion to the mean,” evolving the latter into “regression to the mean,” and invented many other statistical concepts, such as quartile, decile, and ogive.","PeriodicalId":312432,"journal":{"name":"The Error of Truth","volume":"91 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126657250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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