Ethiopian Journal of Economics最新文献

{"title":"The Nigerian, Swedish and Chilean Pension Systems: A Comparative Analysis of Schemes and Reforms","authors":"I. Yusuf","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.259377","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.259377","url":null,"abstract":"The contemporary global debate about pension reforms is based mainly on the concern for the long-term financial viability of existing government operated pension systems. Against this background, Nigeria, Sweden and Chile responded to the challenges posed by their pension systems by initiating reforms. While Chile and Nigeria completely moved from a defined benefit system to a defined contribution system, Sweden chose a “hybrid”, a model which has received wide acclaim by social security experts. Given the interest pension systems and reforms have generated globally as well as in Nigeria, a cross-country comparative analysis is imperative to bring into sharp focus the specific differences and similarities in these three pension reforms if any. Thus, this study comparatively evaluates the Nigerian, Swedish and Chilean pension reforms as a means of enriching ongoing global debate and crosscountry comparisons on pension reform experiences. Guided by a three dimensional classification framework which describes the options available in reforming a pension system, three core benchmarks were used for this comparative analysis. These are the objective(s) of reform, the model of reform adopted, and the likely outcomes of reform vis-a-vis meeting the redistribution, saving and insurance functions of a pension scheme. Results indicate that the Chilean and Nigerian models are less likely to achieve the redistribution and insurance functions of a pension scheme while the Swedish model is better placed to achieve all the three key functions of a pension system. It is recommended that opportunities for achieving the redistribution and social insurance functions of a pension scheme should be explored in subsequent amendments to the pension legislation. Keywords : Demographic crisis, Pension reform, Public policy","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133634367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Issues of vertical Imbalance in Ethiopia’s Emerging system of Fiscal Decentralization","authors":"C. Eshetu","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.251830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.251830","url":null,"abstract":"The major purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which the problem of vertical imbalance arises in Ethiopia's newly emerging system of fiscal decentralization and to critically assess existing arrangements for resolving it. It concludes that the degree of vertical imbalance n regional budgets is rather pronounced and that there are a number of limitations in the mechanisms used in resolving the problem. The revenue sources assigned to the regions are inadequate to help them discharge the weighty responsibilities assigned to them. Attention should be given to measures that will boost the capacity of the regions to enhance their efforts at resource mobilization since grants will be the major means of covering the revenue shortfall of regions, it is important to establish criteria and mechanisms for the provision of grants that are transparent and easy to administer. There should also be an attempt to depart from the practice of having only one type of grant (le, the matching type). It is further necessary to develop detailed criteria to govern borrowing by the regions from the central government. The existing legislative provisions are inadequate and full of ambiguities. Ultimately, however, the issue is a political one and centers on the relationship between the center and regional governments. The task is one of ensuring that this relationship is based on mutual understanding rather than distrust. In general, however, there is nothing to be gained by undue haste in implementing the new system of fiscal decentralization.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129259670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Public policy Markets and Technical progress in the Grain plough Culture","authors":"M. Taye","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.252974","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.252974","url":null,"abstract":"Based on an inter-activity analysis of a village economy of the grain - plough culture of Ethiopia, this paper is a critique of some of the premises of current rural development programmers in the country and approaches to reforms in agrarian policy Contrary to these premises, the paper argues, final demand injections may be superior to transfer injections as means of raising the incomes or the marketable surplus of rural economies in the culture. Final demand injections may also be more effective in those terms when directed at home activities rather than farming and at traditionally less traded grain types rather than those observed as the main traditional exports of the economy. Furthermore, it is a strong possibility that the same injections are a viable substitute to projects of technological intervention should these be not feasible in a locality. The agronomic bas characterizing such projects at the moment also seems to be unjustified. Results supporting the case for final demand injections imply that technological interventions may be more effective when directed at home activities rather than farm activities and at less known crops of a rural economy rather than at traditional major \"exports \"","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123309068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation - Growth nexus in Ethiopia: Evidence from Threshold Auto Regressive Model","authors":"Ashagrie Demile","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V24I1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V24I1","url":null,"abstract":"Achieving high economic growth with stable and low inflation level has long been the macroeconomic policy objective of Ethiopia. The Ethiopian economy, however, has gone through different paths of inflation and growth relationship over the last four decades. Before 2003, Ethiopia was well-known as a low inflation country with marginal economic growth. After 2004, however, the country had been in general hovering around double digit inflation. During the same period economic growth averaged 10.7%. This seems to suggest that the two variables are positively related. Quite a large number of theoretical and empirical researches, however, suggest that there is a threshold effect in the relationship between inflation and growth such that high inflation has an adverse effect on economic growth. Against this background, this paper investigates whether there is a threshold effect between the two variables in Ethiopia for the period 1971 to 2013 using annual data and Hansen’s Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model. The empirical result does not support the existence of threshold effect between the two variables in the period. The possible reason for the non-existence of non-linearity might be related to the absence of the absence market led economic system and the low financial sector development of the study period mainly in first 25 years. As a result the informational friction that interferes with the efficiency of the financial system which finally inhibits long-run growth might be absent in the study period. Due to the small number of observations, however, this result should be interpreted with caution. Keywords: Inflation, growth and threshold autoregressive","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115579045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Characteristics and Determinants of Entrepreneurship in Ethiopia","authors":"W. Amha, T. Woldehanna, E. Tamrat, A. Gebremedhin","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.259488","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.259488","url":null,"abstract":"Using Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) approach, the study analyzes the characteristics and determinants of entrepreneurship in Ethiopia. Primary data are collected through the Adult Population Survey (APS) and analyzed using Probit model. To overcome the hetroscedasticity problem, which is prevalent in cross section studies, robust standard errors were employed. The findings of the study reveal that about 53% of the adults in Ethiopia are potential entrepreneurs. The perceived opportunity rate in Ethiopia (65%) is above the average for factor-driven economies (63%); while the perceived capabilities rate (69%) is below the average for factor-driven economies (71%). Ethiopia’s rate of entrepreneurial intention (22%), early-stage entrepreneurial activity rate (12.2%), and established business activity rate (8.3%) are below the average for both factor-driven economies and Sub-Saharan African countries. The econometric analysis indicates that demographic variables such as age, level of education, societal attitude towards entrepreneurship, and social networks (knowing someone in business) are significant in influencing potential entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial intensions in Ethiopia. In early-stage entrepreneurial activity (TEA),\"Fear of failure\" is found to have a negative and statistically significant effect. On the other hand, the probability of engaging in TEA significantly differs between those living in urban and rural areas. Furthermore, the results provide basic data to develop national entrepreneurship strategy, consistent with the MSE development strategy and other macro and sectoral level strategies. Thus, the low rate of TEA and established business in Ethiopia can be improved by expanding the quantity and quality of support services. Moreover, there is also a need to develop region-specific entrepreneurial development plan to reduce region to region or urban-rural differences. Keywords: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), Perceived Opportunities and Capabilities, Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA)","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133421958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Poverty in Ethiopia: A Computable General Equilibrium Microsimulation Analysis","authors":"D. Mengistu","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.259290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.259290","url":null,"abstract":"Ethiopia has implemented various fiscal policy reforms in the past decade. Most of these reforms center on indirect taxes and pro-poor expenditure patterns. This study investigates the economy-wide impacts of these fiscal policy changes on poverty. To this effect, the study used a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model linked to a microsimulation (MS) model. The CGE model used the 2005/06 social accounting matrix (SAM) and the MS model used the 2004/05 Household Income, Consumption and Expenditure (HICE) survey to investigate household poverty by way of the consumption expenditure changes from the CGE model. The fiscal policies simulated are domestic indirect taxes, government consumption expenditures, and government transfers to households. The findings of the study suggest that the increase in revenue from indirect taxes has worsened the poverty state of households. The results from the CGE model have all shown decline in real GDP, sectoral output, employment and welfare. In contrast, the study found improvements in the poverty state of households as a result of the introduction of various short-run expenditure measures. However, examination of the net effect revealed worsening poverty at the national level in general and for rural households in particular. On the other hand, poverty tended to decline among urban households. The major conclusion is that the tax policy has dominant adverse effect on poverty in the short-run. Thus, policy makers need to take into account these adverse effects and come up with pro-poor spending policies that would protect households from the negative strains while the financing policies go along. Keywords: Fiscal policy, poverty, indirect taxes, government consumption expenditure, government transfers, social accounting matrix, computable general equilibrium, household income, consumption and expenditure survey, microsimulation JEL Classification : H30, H53, I32","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130069409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Causal Links among Saving, Investment and Growth and Determinants of Saving in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia","authors":"W. Gebeyehu","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V19I2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V19I2","url":null,"abstract":"The relationship between saving, investment and GDP still remains an empirical issue. In their aspiration to catch up the rest of the world, developing countries provides a special place on this matter. This paper tried to investigate the main determinants of saving and the connection among saving, investment and GDP in the case of Ethiopia using a combination of time series models. The paper finds export, inflation and lag government expenditure to have a statistically significant short and long term impact on the saving rate. Growth of income has a positive effect on rate of saving and the impulse response function shows the relevance of the neoclassical growth model in explaining the relationship between the saving rate and growth of income albeit lack of statistically significant causality between saving and investment in either direction. Although they may not be conclusive, the results suggest a more conducive policy environment and measures to boost domestic saving so as to induce growth from inside.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"83 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122205920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Economic and Political Cost of Not Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Agrarian Policy Making in Ethiopia","authors":"Tenkir Bonger","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V23I1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V23I1","url":null,"abstract":"abatua laygedel wendimua laygedel arsew yabluat inji hodua endaygodel Since her father cannot kill nor can her brother let them feed her by cultivating so that her stomach will not be empty [From a popular Ethiopian melody] When the property and the knowledge of a people increases, the government's policy and wealth parameters also increase. As the knowledge and wealth of people develop, the governments’ instruments of policy implementation acquire additional strength [effectiveness]\". Negadras Gebrehiwot Baykedagn. Written in 1917, Translated as State & Economy in Early 19th Century Ethiopia, Karnak House & Red Sea Press, 1995. pp 53-54 This paper examines the pitfalls of an otherwise well intentioned agrarian reform which formed the centre piece of the 1974 Ethiopian Revolution. It is contended that most of the non-anticipated negative consequences emanated from the adoption of Euro-centric model not sufficiently interfaced with the specificity of rural Ethiopia. The paper focuses on the implication of the reform for rural migration, the related problem of famine, redistribution of rural incomes and the impact on the welfare of the rural and the urban poor and accumulation. Finally, it brings to the fore the gist of an indigenous knowledge source on the political economy of Ethiopia which may have provided better policy reform base for the Agrarian Reform. In the search to compress the agrarian structure of Ethiopia into the social trajectory of European societies, it has been variously conceptualized as part feudal, part capitalist or wholly feudal or capitalist by writers and different political protagonists. The term feudo-bourgeoisie was the common theme which informed the political tract of analysts and activists alike on the eve and during the course of the Ethiopian Revolution of 1974. Informed by the fuedo-bourgeoisie paradigm, exempting tenants from the payment of land rent, the Reform of 1975 abolished ‘land-lordism’, to contain ‘relation of exploitation’, it prohibited the hiring in and the hiring out of labour. Similarly, it set a maximum of 10 hectares of land per peasant which could be operated without hiring labour and attendant exploitation. While most large farms were converted into State farms, those more than 10 hectares in peasant areas were apportioned to the nearby households. The great agrarian reform of Ethiopia provided an unfettered access and security of tenure especially to those who were tenants in the pre-reform period and opened up the prospect for new institutional and technological set up to unleash a dynamic process of agricultural development. However, possible gain from such a potential were constrained by setting cultivation ceiling at 10 hectare in one season rain-fed agriculture, the curtailment of open and competitive channels of marketing, undue bias in favour of State farms and the inefficient operations of the AMC. In the face of increasing population and declining per capita output of food, these cont","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"90 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121177123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exchange rate policy in Ethiopia: An Agenda for Action","authors":"Dagnew Gashaw","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.252975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.252975","url":null,"abstract":"The balance of payments of the country has been characterized by a widening current account deficit and a depletion of reserves. This is mainly due to the fact that exports have declined in recent years both in volume and value terms. One of the main factors which contributed to the decline in exports is the lack of incentives to produce. The major disincentive to produce exportable is the unattractive producer price. It is, therefore, important to get the prices right In this paper attempts are made to establish the overvaluation of the Birr using some quantitative and qualitative indicators. The expected effects of devaluation are also briefly discussed. Since the economy is operating below capacity and to mitigate the social cost of adjustment substantial results could be achieved by exchange rate adjustment coupled with an increased inflow of external assistance to finance the import of inputs such as raw materials, fertilizers and spare parts. In order for devaluation to be effective it must take place in tandem with economic reforms aimed at eliminating distortions that reduce economic efficiency. In addition to mitigating the negative impact of devaluation in different ways and means, it jis also important to educate the public on the need for it, because it might cause political instability.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128406037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Profitability of bioethanol production: the case of Ethiopia","authors":"Z. Gebreegziabher, A. Mekonnen, Tadele Ferede, G. Köhlin","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V26I1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V26I1","url":null,"abstract":"This research investigates the profitability of bioethanol production in Africa, taking Ethiopia as a case in point, and suggests an oil price threshold beyond which biofuels may be profitable. Specifically, the study analyzes the viability of producing bioethanol from molasses in the context of Ethiopia, using data from a biofuels investment survey by EEPFE/EDRI in 2010. We draw on investment theory as our underlying conceptual framework and we employ unit cost analysis for our empirical analysis. Findings reveal that bioethanol production (from molasses) in Africa/Ethiopia can be quite viable and the biofuels industry can be viewed as a way out of poverty. This is a case study involving a few observations because of the small size of the universe of producers studied; hence the need for further analysis as the sector expands.Key words: profitability; bioethanol; oil price threshold; Ethiopia; AfricaJEL Codes: Q56, Q42","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"13 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114121746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}