Ethiopian Journal of Economics最新文献

{"title":"The Effect of Improved Productivity of the Manufacturing Industries on the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis","authors":"Bethelhem Berhane","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V22I1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V22I1","url":null,"abstract":"Ethiopia’s manufacturing industry is at the onset of development though there are recent upsurges in the number of firms. This study examines the effect of productivity improvement of the manufacturing sector on the macro economy, sectoral output, factor and household income and welfare of households. In order to investigate this, the study utilized the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The recently updated 2005/06 Ethiopian SAM was used to calibrate the CGE framework. Three policy simulations of high, medium and low TFP growth rates were simulated on agro processing, non-agro processing and overall manufacturing activities. The study demonstrated that the manufacturing sector is a key driver of economic growth in particular; the findings suggest that productivity increase in agro processing, non-agro processing and overall manufacturing sector largely increases real GDP and sectoral outputs. Moreover, both rural and urban households are well-off in all the policy simulations. The study further extends its recommendation for Ethiopia to develop a strong industrial policy aimed towards promoting both agro and non-agro processing industries. Key words : CGE, Productivity improvement in the manufacturing industry JEL Classification : L60, C68","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"110 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120880438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Diversification across crops and land in small holder agriculture in Ethiopia: the case of shewa administrative region","authors":"A. Shukri","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.249825","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.249825","url":null,"abstract":"The opportunities available for consumption smoothing can be expected to influence the ways in which rural households respond to income risks and thereby impact on the degree of diversification and adoption of risky activities. By assuming that diversification is a risk reduction mechanism, this paper deals with the diversification across crops and plots in Ethiopian small-holder agriculture. Specifically, the incidence and levels of land fragmentation and cereal crop diversification is analyzed in relation to the households' consumption security provided by liquid asset stocks (livestock). It is hypothesized that more endowments, specifically in terms of livestock assets will lead to less diversification (more specialization). A four year rotating panel data from the \"Rural Integrated Household Survey Program\" of the Ethiopian Central Statistical Authority (CSA) collected during 1988 to 1991 in Shewa, Ethiopia is employed. Contrary to the expectation of a safer strategy, land fragmentation was found to have a positive relationship with the level of asset ownership (though insignificant) and land holdings. This result, coupled with the positive relationship between population density and fragmentation, and the absence of land markets in rural Ethiopia, suggests that farmers were supply constrained. When the rural population is growing faster than the number of off-farm jobs, agriculture is the only career option for many. As more people try to make a living from a limited land base, pressure to divide and sub-divide farms and fields will increase. This calls for measures to ease barriers to land transactions which may then induce greater consolidation of plots thereby setting in motion a wide range of social and economic benefits. It also calls for enhancing the attempts being made to facilitate the introduction of appropriate technology, to create off-farm employment, and to curb population growth. On the other hand, it was found that, apart from climatic and agronomic factors, there is a systematic bias towards more crop diversification as the level of asset ownership and land holdings decline. Households with higher levels of livestock asset ownership and/or farm size have relatively lower levels of crop diversification. Thus, households with the ability to bear more risk (through their asset position) are found to have greater concentration on fewer cereal crops. The traditionally developed strategy of closely integrating crop and livestock enterprises to buffer against uncertainty in peasant agriculture is under threat due to the ever expanding cultivation of crops into grazing land, feed shortages, and overgrazing of existing pasture. This limits the possibility of poorer households entering into livestock rearing and those who have already done so may be forced to give it up","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114664213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy Shock in Ethiopia: Evidence from a Bayesian VAR Approach","authors":"K. Gemechu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3755097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3755097","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigated the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy shocks in Ethiopia using a Bayesian Vector Auto Regression model. We examined the dynamic responses of output, inflation, interest rate and exchange rate to fiscal policy shocks employing quarterly data from 2000/01Q1 to 2015/16Q4. The empirical evidence suggests that government spending shock had a positive impact on output and inflation but effect was too small. Initially the interest rate responded negatively to government spending shocks and was positive with small effect and the nominal exchange rate showed deterioration. In addition, government revenue shocks had positive effect real GDP and exchange rate and then they responded negatively. The inflation response to the net tax was medium and negative whereas its effect on interest rate was positive, and persistent. Furthermore, positive shocks to recurrent expenditure had a persistent positive impact on real output. Recurrent expenditure appeared to be responsible for inflationary pressure. Interest rate picked up slightly as a result of recurrent spending shocks in the short run. The response of exchange rate recurrent expenditure was small and remained negative. In contrast, capital expenditure was found to have an insignificant effect on output. The reasons could the administrative lag and contractual bottleneck that are sometimes involved executing capital projects and that appeared to be responsible for inflationary pressure. In the short term, the interest rate responded negatively and the estimated impact on exchange rate was insignificant. Following indirect tax revenue shocks rise in output and inflation was very persistent. Regarding the effects of indirect taxes on interest rate and exchange rate our results show a clear and negative impact whereas direct taxes were found to affect output and inflation very little and were insignificant. Initially, interest and exchange rates responded positively to direct shock later interest rate and exchange rate become insignificant and negative respectively. The results support the idea of a ‘crowding-in’ effect and when we take into account the feedback from government debt, the results suggest that the effects fiscal shocks on the majority of macro variables is too small except for the real GDP for government revenue shock. Therefore, empirical evidence shows that it important to consider government debt dynamics in the model. Key words : Ethiopia, Fiscal policy shock, public debt, Bayesian VAR JEL Code: E44, E62, C12, C32","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122861654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics of Wasting and Underweight in Ethiopian Children","authors":"C. Cintron, Ilana Seff, Sarah Baird","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V25I2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V25I2","url":null,"abstract":"In Ethiopia, 9.7 percent of rural and 28.7 percent of small-town children are wasted and underweight, and under nutrition is responsible for a large percentage of childhood deaths. We use two waves of panel data, from the 2012 and 2014 Ethiopia Socioeconomic Surveys, to assess the dynamics of weight-for-height z-score, wasting, weight-for-age z-score, and underweight among children aged 6-59 months. Ordinary least squares (OLS) and fixed effects regression models are used to examine the associations of individual, household, and community factors with each outcome. The cross-sectional results, which generally parallel previous findings, suggest that child’s sex, recent illnesses, household assets, and livestock ownership are correlated with nutritional status. However, many associations disappear after controlling for fixed effects; only recent illness and community access to a main road are consistently significant determinants of changes in nutrition status. Thus, changing factors traditionally identified as correlates of undernutrition may not be enough to improve children’s nutrition. Further panel analysis, conditional on baseline nutrition status, shows that drivers of change are asymmetrical—a finding important for policy development.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114248408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Property rights and their implications on agricultural productivity in Ethiopia: a history","authors":"T. Baye","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V27I1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V27I1","url":null,"abstract":"Property rights and relationships in Ethiopia, though complex and difficult to define, had been associated with and expressed in terms of land, which had shaped and dictated socio-politico-economic relations and processes. During pre-revolutionary imperial Ethiopia, most debates and discussions on property rights and obligations, including agricultural productivity and efficiency, were expressed in relation to the main existing tenure regime of the country: the rist tenure. This tenure, like most other indigenous tenure regimes and property arrangements in Africa, was flexible and accommodating. This historical study, based on archives, interviews and secondary sources, examines the structure and nature of property rights and relationships. The data collected through different methods was carefully examined in order to reconstruct and document property rights and their implications for agricultural productivity and efficiency in the country based on the objectives of the study. Key Words: land, tributary rights, reversionary rights, property rights, productivity, agriculture, Ethiopia JEL Code: Q15; P14; P17","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"101 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121225314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}