Ethiopian Journal of Economics最新文献

{"title":"Factors Affecting Savings as Means of Economic Growth in Ethiopia","authors":"H. Beshir","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V26I2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V26I2","url":null,"abstract":"This study used co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) to examine the causal relationship between the growth rate of real Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) and growth rate of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Ethiopia. The estimation was undertaken for the period 1965-2013, using Eview9 software. In the analysis, the time series properties of macroeconomic variables were ascertained by using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test procedure. Finally, the long-run relationship between variables was explored by utilizing the Johansen procedure. The ADF test showed that there was unit root after the first difference. The estimated results indicated at most four order of integration or I(4) for the series was considered. From the result, the coefficient of the co-integrating equation indicates that about 73.3 percent of disequilibrium corrected each year by change in aggregate domestic saving with respect to income, money supply and price. Gross domestic savings in Ethiopia are affected by age dependency ratio, real exchange rate, real interest rate, real gross domestic product, foreign capital inflow and money supply both in the short and long run. Elasticity of exchange rate with respect to domestic savings is high and significant in the long run. This implied that continuous depreciation of real exchange rate has a direct impact on encouraging domestic savings. This would improve terms of trade and foreign capital inflow. Addressing institutional (through sensible policies such as formalization of the informal sector) and structural problems (such as infrastructural provision and efficient and relevant education policy) is also noted in the empirical literature as influencing savings mobilization.Key Words: Co-integration, Growth, Model, Saving, Vector Error CorrectionJEL Classification: E21","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132620944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of Smallholder Tree Plantation in Amhara Region of Ethiopia: The Case of Lay Gayint and Fagta Locuma Districts","authors":"F. Addis, S. Melak, B. Tefera, H. Kassa","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.259498","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.259498","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we consider the microeconomics evidence on the determinants of firm performance in Ethiopia, with a focus on grain traders. We analyse both internal and external factors, and the relative impacts of these factors on the performance of grain traders. Different economic indicators seem to suggest that grain traders have become increasingly unviable as reflected by absence or stagnation of growth. These firms suffer from a host of internal problems (e.g. weak human resources and other assets) and of external factors such as access to credit, market facilities, policy and regulatory framework, etc.). Hence without renewed focus on promoting firm growth, especially grain traders through improving access to warehouses, relaxing credit constraints, and improving the macroeconomic and regulatory environment, not only grain traders but also rural and urban households will face a very uncertain and untenable future which will hamper the performance of grain markets and the battle against poverty and food insecurity.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130206003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trade Reforms, Mark-Ups and Bargaining Power of Workers: the Case of Ethiopian Manufacturing Firms","authors":"W. Gebeyehu","doi":"10.22004/ag.econ.259500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.259500","url":null,"abstract":"There is a predominant preposition in trade theory that firms operating in an imperfect market with trade barriers often set prices with a positive mark-up. Workers using insider information tend to bargain and share the rent from firms’ market power; which is negatively associated with to decline with trade reforms. Empirical evidences are, nonetheless, mixed. Trade reforms that took place between 1991 and 2002 in Ethiopia inspired the study to investigate the proposition. Using firm level unbalanced data of manufacturing firms employing more than 100 permanent workers between 1996 and 2007, a model of mark-up with labor bargaining power was estimated using random effects and LDPDM. The estimates of the two models are similar. Albeit huge inter-firm variations, the average estimated mark-ups has not only been positive but also increased even after the reform. This may be perhaps because of the 17.5 percent weighted average tariff rate that has still been maintained after the reform. Workers’ bargaining power parameter estimate remained negative over the study period; possibly because of high unemployment and low reservation wage. The rate of rent extraction from workers declined on average in the post reform period. Thus, further opening up of markets may bring a competitive push to improve firm performance, reduce market power of firms and the rent extraction from workers. There is a need to attract additional investment (both public and private) in the economy and addressing causes of capacity underutilization of incumbent firms may lessen unemployment problems and thereby improve workers bargaining power and their earnings. Keywords: Trade reform, mark-up, bargaining power, rent, trade unions","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127019362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Profile of Food Insecurity Dynamics in Rural and Small Town Ethiopia","authors":"Anna D’souza, Dean Jolliffe","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.259504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.259504","url":null,"abstract":"Using panel data from the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey (ESS), representative of all people living in rural and small-town areas, this paper describes changing patterns of food security between 2012 and 2014. We examine four measures of food security – two consumption based (calories and dietary diversity) and two experience based (whether food insecurity was experienced in any month, and whether any actions were taken in response).Over all four measures in both years, the share of the food insecure population was never less than 25 percent. Disentangling chronic from transitory food insecurity is important for policy design and for estimating the total food insecurity count over time. For example, the average rate of inadequate dietary diversity was approximately 30 percent in both 2012 and 2014, but the panel data reveal that 46 percent of the rural and small-town population had inadequately diverse diets at some point over the period. While the cross-sectional estimates suggest similar patterns in levels and trends of the measures, the panel data reveal that there is very little comovement of the measures. For example, observing that someone has improved in terms of dietary diversity does not reveal information as to whether she or he has similarly improved in terms of the experiential-based measures.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"116 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124378331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Determinants of Technical Efficiency of Farmers in Teff, Maize and Sorghum Production: empirical Evidence from Central Zone of Tigray Region","authors":"Hagos Weldegebriel","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.259394","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.259394","url":null,"abstract":"This study is made to examine the technical efficiency of farmers in Teff, Maize, and Sorghum production in the Central Zone of Tigray. The study used primary data collected from a sample of farm households selected using a combination of probability and non-probability sampling techniques in the 2014 cropping season. A single step stochastic frontier production model is used for Teff, Maize, and Sorghum production separately. Based on the regression output of the stochastic frontier models, there is no evidence of technical inefficiency of farmers in the production of Sorghum. Evidence of technical inefficiency is found in the production of Teff and Maize though the predicted level of inefficiency in Teff is infinitesimal (less than 1%). Therefore, the deviation of actual output from the frontier output in Teff and Sorghum production is the result of the stochastic factors beyond the control of the farmers such as bad weather, drought, and the like. The reason behind low level of output in Sorghum and Teff production is not technical inefficiency of farmers but the low level of the current technology available to the farmers. Therefore, increasing output in these two crops requires shifting the current level of technology. Only farmers in Maize production are found to be technically inefficient with a predicted possibility of 4.5% efficiency gains. The technical inefficiency of farmers in maize production significantly differs across the three Woredas; Werie-Lekhe with the highest inefficiency of about 11% followed by Lailai-Maichew and Kola-Temben with inefficiencies of 6% and 0% respectively. The low level of technical inefficiency in Maize, bare evidence of inefficiency in Teff and the nonexistence of inefficiency in Sorghum production are against the preceding evidences. This might be due to the difference in the choice of the dependent and explanatory variables. Moreover, the farmers might have improved their input use over the last couple of years due to training and extension services. Moreover, labor input measured in man days is found to be positive and significant in contrast to the preceding evidences implying agriculture in the study area not subjected to excess labor with zero or negative marginal productivity. Finally, suboptimal technology adoption [the use of fertilizers below or above the standard amount required] doesn’t affect output in Teff and Sorghum production but it tends to reduce output in Maize production. Moreover, training on modern input use, access for credit, the dummy for main crop, and irrigation are found to be significant determinants of technical efficiency in Maize production. Therefore, farmers should use the standard amount of fertilizer in Maize production and specialization is superior to diversification in all crops.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133407616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Marketing system analysis of vegetables and fruits in Amhara Regional State: survey evidence from Raya Kobo and Harbu Woredas","authors":"M. Negasi","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V24I2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V24I2","url":null,"abstract":"This study attempted to analyze the different aspects of marketing system of vegetable and fruit in Raya Kobo and Harbu woredas, Amhara regional state using different indicators. Probit estimation for determinant of participation probability in vegetable and fruit production and OLS estimation technique were also applied for examining determinants of market supply and demand for vegetable and fruit products. Accordingly, the results showed that lack of genuine and timely market information, poor institutions and arrangements, poor marketing infrastructures (poor storage, cool chain facilities, packaging, weak pre and post harvest handling practices, non scientific grading and standard, etc), long market channel, high and unfair profit margin distribution among the value chain actors with little share to the farmers were observed in both vegetable and fruit market. These are an indicative of poor marketing efficiency and thereby suboptimal operation of the marketing system. The econometric regression result of this study exhibited almost similar results as previous studies however the determinants were not same for all sample crops (onion, tomato, mango and avocado) rather differs from crop to crop. In general, family size, total size of land, extension service, farmer’s experience, average lagged price, distance from main road and age were found to be significant factors (with expected sign) of production participation in vegetables and fruits . Similarly, average current price, distances from main road, age, total size of land, farmers’ experience, sex, number of oxen, and access to market information were found to be significant determinants of market supply of vegetables and fruits. Finally, family size, purchase frequency, amount of single purchase lot, average  current price, income level, average expenditure on food and purchasing, and amount per trip were found to be significant line with expected sign as determinants of demand for vegetables and fruits in the study area. Hence, the results found in this study are clearly an indicative for taking appropriate measures in production side, market infrastructure, arrangements and institutions to improve the inefficient functioning of the marketing system. Keywords: Marketing system, structure, conduct, performance, channel, margin, production participation, market supply, market demand.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125966382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Determinants of Agricultural Productivity and Rural Household Income in Ethiopia","authors":"Tessema Urgessa","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.259494","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.259494","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims at investigating the determinants of agricultural productivity and rural household income in Ethiopia. Three econometric models namely: Pooled ordinary least square (POLS), fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) model were used to examine the relationship between productivity and income; using Ethiopian socio-economic survey of 2011/12 and 2013/14 data, collected by CSA of Ethiopia in collaboration with the World Bank. Results showed that, Land-labor ratio, use of fertilizer, use of pesticide, manure and household size are found to be the most significant variables that affect agricultural labor and land productivity. However, drought has statistically significant and has negative effect on both labor and land productivity by the same magnitude. Labor productivity, non-farm income and land productivity are found to be the most determinants of household income. However, number of dependency ratio is significantly and negatively affects the rural household income. Sex of the household head is the main socio-economic factor for the variation of income among the rural households. The study also concludes that, Labor productivity is the most potent for factor of production and rural household income enhancement. The policy implication of the study is that, increasing land-labor ratio is important for agricultural productivity enhancement and promotion of both farm labor and non-farm income are best focusing to speed up for the enhancement of rural household income. Keywords: Labor productivity, Land productivity; Rural household income, Rural household panel data, Fixed effect model","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"219 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131615319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of Households Vulnerability and Food Insecurity in Amhara Regional State of Ethiopia: using Value at Risk Analysis","authors":"Mesfin Welderufael","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.259401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.259401","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines household’s food insecurity and the extent of future vulnerability in Amhara region, using WMS and HCES of CSA. Calorie method was employed to determine food insecurity. In addition to descriptive statistics, GLS application for vulnerability and the Logit models was used to analyze the data. The Results indicates that, demand side factor related to socio economic factors like family sizes, education, consumption, employment opportunities and asset ownership was a significant predictor of vulnerability and food insecurity. In rural areas, supply side factors like farm inputs and farm size are also related to food insecurity. Empirical finding also shows that idiosyncratic health-related shocks, covariate economic and environmental shocks have larger impact on vulnerability to food insecurity. Moreover, future vulnerability of households is highly related with current food insecurity, but not uni-directional, particularly in rural areas. Socio- Economic and location differences were also observed in the intensity of vulnerability. It shows that both transitory and chronic food insecurity are highly prevalent in rural areas. The results imply that education, diversification of livelihoods and resources which will raise consumption, will be crucial in attainment of food security. It also strongly supports promotion of family planning; enhancing livestock packages, creation of employment opportunities, delivery of targeting aid for needy groups and input access by the poor in the study area. Managements of hazards and risks adequately which enable the poor to escape from vulnerability are immensely vital. Overall, it showed that reducing vulnerability and attaining food security in the region requires adoption of mixed strategies and policies.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117046722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of price dynamics in Ethiopia","authors":"S. Gofere","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V22I2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V22I2","url":null,"abstract":"Since recent years inflation has become the most important macroeconomic problem in Ethiopia. This study examines the sources of this inflationary pressure using annual data spanning over 1971 - 2014. The study estimates a comprehensive price equation and performs some simulation analysis to uncover the sources of inflationary pressure. The result of the exercise indicates that monetary and fiscal fundamentals are important determinants of price dynamics in the short run. In the long run, output remains to be the most important variable. The result also indicates that the relationship between inflation and foreign prices is rather weak. Keywords: Inflation, Macroeconomic Policies, Money Supply, Fiscal Deficit and Real GDP","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"96 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115914839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics of Food Price Inflation in Eastern Ethiopia: A Meso Macro Modeling","authors":"A. Kassa","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V21I2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V21I2","url":null,"abstract":"Data from the 2004 wave of the Ethiopian Urban Socio Economic Survey on four major cities of Ethiopia is used to investigate the determinants of unemployment in urban Ethiopia and its impact on household welfare. Regression results from a binary probit model estimation show that urban unemployment in Ethiopia in 2004 is determined by age, marital status, education beyond primary school and living in the capital Addis Ababa. Moreover, the results from OLS regression of consumption indicate that unemployment adversely affects household consumption expenditure and hence household welfare. One more unemployed household member  results in a 4.6 percent decline in per capita real consumption expenditure available to the household. Since unemployment negatively affects household welfare, efforts aiming at reducing unemployment will most likely improve welfare. Mechanisms to reduce household size such as family planning are recommended for better household welfare via their effect on household consumption. Keywords: urban, unemployment, consumption, welfare, probit, OLS","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130453120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}