Ethiopian Journal of Economics最新文献

{"title":"Long-Term growth opportunities in Ethiopia","authors":"Alemu Mihret","doi":"10.4314/eje.v14i1.39811","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/eje.v14i1.39811","url":null,"abstract":"The paper attempts to investigate the role of institutions in the long-term growth performance of Ethiopia. In this study, it is hypothesized that the long-term growth of the country, apart from traditional factors of production i.e. capital and labor is largely influenced by institutional factors. To examine this, the study uses a times series data on important variables for the period 1967/68-2002/03, and employed Johansen cointegration analysis. The variables used are, institutional quality indicators, human capital, labor force, capital stock, road network, and rainfall. The findings of the paper support the above stated hypothesis. Institution and physical capital are found to be significant in both the long and short run models while human capital is found important only in the long run.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"455 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125790586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The contributions of agricultural growth to poverty reduction in Ethiopia","authors":"Tafesse Getahun","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V14I1.39810","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V14I1.39810","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates agricultural growth-poverty relationships at the national and household levels. A rural household model is used to measure the impact of agricultural growth (or decline) on consumption first and the effect of consumption changes on poverty using regression analyses. Two approaches are used here to estimate the agricultural growth elasticity of poverty. First, the growth elasticity of poverty is determined and then using the agriculture elasticity of growth, the agriculture growth requirement for the change in poverty is estimated indirectly. In the second approach, a two-stage analysis is used to arrive at the growth requirement by estimating first the determinants of welfare (household consumption expenditure) and estimating the poverty impact of a certain growth using the relationship between expenditure and poverty incidence. Accordingly, a forty-year time-series national account data has indicated that a 1 percent growth in agriculture would lead to a 0.32 percent growth in GDP. Given the GDP growth elasticity of poverty, it also followed that a 1 percent increase in agricultural production would lead to a 0.24 percent decline in poverty incidence at the national level. At the Household level, the base simulation has provided a poverty incidence of 40.2 percent in rural areas with 11.2 and 24.9 poverty gap and severity respectively for the year 1995/96. Given the actual and base simulation poverty measures and assuming the percentage change in percapita value added of agricultural production reflects the same percentage change in consumption per capita (adult) and that income distribution remains the same, the application of the same poverty line in real terms4, has provided a poverty incidence of 63.6 percent and a poverty gap of .22 for the year 2000/01. Such a rapid increase in poverty level goes very well with the general perception of the public as expressed during the PRSP consultation and with other studies by non-governmental organizations. Here agricultural growth elasticity of poverty becomes -3.62, which is very high. When inflation is ignored the agricultural growth elasticity of poverty becomes -2.12. Based on another assumption that takes the long-term trend in agricultural growth, poverty incidence and gap for 2000/01 become 46.5 percent 13.7, implying agricultural growth poverty elasticity of - 0.98, or almost equal percentage change in opposite direction. So, it is likely that a one percentage increase in agricultural per capita value added will result into a one percent decline in poverty level of rural households.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130862525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The demand for kerosene and per capital income in Ethiopia","authors":"Mulugeta Elias","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V13I2.39807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V13I2.39807","url":null,"abstract":"The demand for kerosene is growing at the rate 5.6% per annum. Per capita income and population growth are determining factor that can directly affect the demand for household kerosene fuel in Ethiopia. Kerosene consumption is a log log (double logarithm) non linear function of per capita income through time. It is an ideal demand function. The demand for total kerosene consumption is income elastic and the elasticity coefficient is 8.9 in Ethiopia. This indicates that as income increase kerosene consumption increases, a 1% increase in per capita income will result in 8.9% increase in total kerosene consumption, i.e. more than a proportionate increase in demand for kerosene. Urban population is a limiting factor for kerosene consumption in Ethiopia. Urban population is growing rapidly. It is estimated that urban population growth at the rate of 4.1% per annum during the last 15 years. The study tries to forecast demand for kerosene in 2005 - 2020. Between 1991 - 2004, household kerosene demand has been growing at the rate of 5.9% per annum. Forecasting of the demand for kerosene was based on econometric model. The total urban kerosene demand will be 275,470 m3 in 2006, 346,900 m3 in 2010, 457,190 m3 in 2015 and 594,166 m3 in 2020. The Addis Ababa kerosene demand will be 111,420 m3 in 2006, 134,930 m3 in 2010, 168,400 m3 in 2015 and 204,030 m3 in 2020. This study attempts to overview the demand and supply of household fuels in Ethiopia, in general, and commercial fuels, in particular. We will also compare and contrast nominal prices and the amount of energy per unit cost for important fuels. Even though fuel wood has the lowest quality, it is the cheapest energy source among household fuels and that is why poor households preferred to consume it. Kerosene becomes the most expensive fuel than wood as well as charcoal. We look at the demand elasticity of price and income and analyse the effect of change in price and income on consumption of different household fuels","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"691 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131954900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Macro policy reform, labor market, poverty and inequality in urban Ethiopia: a micro- simulation approach","authors":"G. Alemayehu, A. Alem","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V13I2.39806","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V13I2.39806","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the liberalization program that Ethiopia embarked upon since 1992 aggregate indicators of poverty and inequality largely remained unchanged. This paper addresses why incomes and inequality largely remained stable at a time of fundamental changes in macroeconomic policy environment. We have used both data exploratory analysis as well as earning and occupational choice modelling, together with counterfactual simulation, to investigate this issue. The study showed that the absence of change in aggregate measure of poverty and inequality hides an enormous change that occurred across different income categories. This shows the importance of understanding the labour market to understand the policy propagation mechanism through which macro policy is expected to affect poverty. The study has show that although there seem to be limited change in poverty and inequality at aggregate level, there is significant change within and across categories of households. Thus different household are affected differently by the reform. The level and distribution of household incomes is found to depend on the structure of returns to labour and on the occupational choice the households made. Thus, policy effectiveness of poverty reduction policies could be achieved if we understand the workings of the labour market and how it affects both level and distribution of income across different categories of income & sector.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115645174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Managing growth of microfinance institutions (MFIs): balancing sustainability and reaching large number of clients in Ethiopia","authors":"A. Wolday","doi":"10.4314/EJE.V13I2.39808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/EJE.V13I2.39808","url":null,"abstract":"The overriding objective of MFIs in Ethiopia is to provide a broad range of microfinance services to large numbers of poor households. This is realized by developing capable and sustainable MFIs. A large number of MFIs have achieved significant progress in terms of both outreach and sustainability. As of June 2005, the twenty six deposit taking MFIs had an active loan portfolio of about 1.5 billion Birr (173 million USD) delivered to 1,211,305 active clients. They mobilized about 501million Birr (58 million US dollars) in savings. The Ethiopian MFIs attained such a significant outreach in a brief period of time. Between 2001 and 2005, the number of clients, volume of loan portfolio and savings increased by 263%, 479%, and 206%, respectively. In 2004, 12 out of the 15 MFIs were operationally sustainable, while 5 were financially sustainable. The majority of the MFIs increased their efficiency and productivity indicators as a result of expansion or increase in outreach. Out of the 15 MFIs, eleven had less than 5% portfolio at risk, which was encouraging. Out of the 13 MFIs which registered significant growth in outreach, 9 showed a remarkable decline in their portfolio at risk. As a result of the increased outreach, many of the MFIs maintained and some improved their portfolio quality. A careful balancing of increasing outreach and sustainability; with a parallel focus on institutional capacity; reducing costs and risks; and improving efficiency, profitability and portfolio quality, is needed to address the financial demand millions of unbanked people in Ethiopia. The specific interventions to increase the growth and sustainability of MFIs include: (a) Improving the institutional capacity of the MFIs by the implementing an efficient organizational structure, (changes in organization culture, structure and systems, for instance, decentralized lending decisions) with appropriate staff incentive and reward system, improvement of the skill of human resource, good governance, introduction of innovative financial products, and the increase of geographic expansion; (b) creating an enabling legal, regulatory and policy environment; (c) improve access to capital; (d) selective government and donor support; and (e) improving the demand side of the equation","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114353500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intensification and crop commercialization in Northeastern Ethiopia","authors":"Negatu Workineh, M. Roth","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.249850","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.249850","url":null,"abstract":"Due to low farm production and productivity the majority of subsistence farmers in Ethiopia are not self-sufficient in food, and deliver meager amounts of farm output to consumers and agro-processing industries. Agricultural growth, an important pathway to food security, is realized through increases in per capita farm endowments (physical and financial assets and resources) and adoption of appropriate and proven technology and requires a transformation out of the semi-subsistence, low-input and low-productivity agriculture into a high productivity commercial agriculture. This article investigates farm commercialization from two perspectives - output-oriented and input-oriented farm commercialization. Logistic model was applied to examine factors of commercial participation and use of chemical fertilizer, while Cob Douglass production function was employed for the analysis of production determinants. The data used for the analysis was collected from farm households sampled from communities in Northeastern Ethiopia. The regression analysis of commercialization asserts that lack of market access (measured by distance) and engagement in livestock and off-farm employment significantly and negatively impact food crop commercialization. Total food crop production has been found to impress a strong and significant effect on commercialization. The production analysis indicated that farm size operated and technology (chemical fertilizer) are the most important production factors under the context of the study areas. Results of estimation of fertilizer use show the important and positive role of access to oxen and credit, and size of operated farm. The findings of the study generally imply the need for rationalization of policies and institutions in order to create incentives and rules that promote land transaction and markets for credit, product and input","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128804100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of demand for health care services and their implication on Health care financing: the case of Bure town","authors":"Asteraye Nahu","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.249855","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.249855","url":null,"abstract":"This study attempts to identify the factors that determine the medical treatment seeking behaviour during illness and the demand for health care services by employing a maximum likelihood estimation technique and using primary data collected from a small woreda town in western Gojjam. The factors that are expected to have an influential impact are categorized as individual and/or household specific variables and choice specific variables.According to the estimated results of the two logit models employed in the study, individual and/or household specific variables such as sex of the patient, severity of illness, monthly income of the household and family size, and distance to reach the nearest health facility (a choice specific variable) are found to significantly affect whether treatment was sought at times of illness. On the other hand, patients' choices of health care service providers are found to be influenced by the age of the patient, sex of the household head and education level of the patient (from the category of individual and/or household specific variables) and by medical cost of treatment per visit and waiting time for treatment (from the choice specific category). All these, therefore, call for the intervention of the government in devising mechanisms that would help reduce the discrepancies observed in terms of sex, age, level of education and income, on the one hand, and in introducing appropriate policy measures that would facilitate the expansion of health facilities that provide best quality health care services at a cost affordable to the majority of the population, on the other.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115786764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Micro and Small Enterprises (MSE) Development in Ethiopia: strategy, Regulatory Changes and Remaining Constraints","authors":"Ageba Gebrehiwot, A. Wolday","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.249856","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.249856","url":null,"abstract":"This paper gives some detailed information on the profile of the MSE operators/MSEs and examines the current business environment for the MSE sector. It is based on primary data collected by the authors through a survey of 974 MSE operators using a structured questionnaire. Although there have been attempts by the government to liberalize and improve the policy, regulatory and institutional support environment for MSEs, which resulted in increase in investment and competition and improvement in the licensing procedures, information from the survey data indicates that there is divergence between stated policies & directives and the outcome on the ground. Capital shortage, inadequate business premise, inadequate/uncertain market and high taxes still remain major constraints to expand MSEs. Moreover, the data revealed that policy predictability is quite low. Much more remains to be done to create an enabling business environment. Concrete and coordinated regulatory and institutional support (infrastructure facilities like business premises, water and power; financial services; extension services; assistance in the transfer of technologies; promotion of marketing facilities; and provision of training on sustainable basis) has yet to be provided by the government and other stakeholders.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125015441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Land Tenure and Land Management in the Highlands of Northern Ethiopia","authors":"G. Berhanu, Medhin, J. Pender, S. Ehui","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.250148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.250148","url":null,"abstract":"Land tenure security is important to encourage investment in land improvements as well as the development of efficient land markets. In Ethiopia, empirical analysis is required to find out the effect of the current land tenure system on farmers’ propensity to invest in land improvements, and the development and functioning of land markets. Data collected from 50 communities in the highlands of Tigray in 1998 was used to investigate the functioning of land markets, and determine the relationship between perceived land tenure security and land investments in the region. We found out that informal land markets (sharecropping and fixed rental) are emerging in the region, and while quality of land is an important determinant of rental price in fixed lease, quality appears to play limited role in determining the land holder’s share in sharecropping. Landlessness is increasing in the region. Perceived tenure security is important for making land investments and use of improved farming practice. However, investments in land do not appear to have significant effect on perceived tenure security of farmers. Our results imply that there is a need to improve tenure security of farmers in order to encourage land investment. The role of public policy in facilitating the development of the fledgling land markets needs to be explored. The wishes and preferences of farmers regarding land tenure arrangements and land administration should be considered as crucial inputs to future land tenure arrangements. Moreover, an open, concerted and inclusive debate on the relevance and feasibility of alternative land tenure arrangements for the country or for different parts of the country needs to be encouraged. Alternative tenure arrangements need to be evaluated based on the level of security they provide to farmers, since tenure security is more important than the mode of ownership.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130803876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Export Earnings Instability of ACP Countries: A Time-Series Analysis","authors":"K. Belay","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.250264","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.250264","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the level of export earnings instabilities of ACP countries (African, Caribbean and pacific states signatories of the Lome Convention); their evolution through time and across countries. At present, this group comprises of seventy developing countries. This deliberate choice of the sample was done in order to examine whether fluctuations in export earnings of these countries have relatively decreased as envisaged by the STABEX system, of the lome Convention introduced in 1975 by the European Economic Community. The country coverage of previous studies on export earnings instabilities was generally limited and most of the ACP countries over the periods 1970-1979, 1980-1990 and 1970-1990. The results of the study indicate that instability indices very across countries. Moreover, a comparison of the indices for 1970-1979 and 980-1990 reveals that for more than half of the countries in the sample(21) , there was a reduction on the level of export instability between the two periods whereas for fifteen countries the reverse was true. It was only for three countries that instability indicates remained the same between 1970s and 1980s.","PeriodicalId":307872,"journal":{"name":"Ethiopian Journal of Economics","volume":"95 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115307461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}