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Asian Development Outlook Forecast Accuracy 2007–2016 2007-2016年亚洲发展展望预测准确性
Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3339198
Benno Ferrarini
{"title":"Asian Development Outlook Forecast Accuracy 2007–2016","authors":"Benno Ferrarini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3339198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3339198","url":null,"abstract":"This paper assesses the accuracy of Asian Development Outlook growth and inflation forecasts for 43 Asian economies from 2007 to 2016, against the benchmark of World Economic Outlook projections by the International Monetary Fund. They are found to overlap quite closely, notwithstanding much heterogeneity across countries and years. Forecast accuracy sharpens over time as additional data and evidence become available and get incorporated during quarterly revisions. However, errors widen during crisis years as forecasters struggle to reflect such events in their projections.","PeriodicalId":303938,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126148040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
International Trade and Exchange Rate “国际贸易与汇率”
Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2016-10-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2856296
J. Kang
{"title":"International Trade and Exchange Rate","authors":"J. Kang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2856296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2856296","url":null,"abstract":"Tepid trade growth since the 2008/2009 global financial crisis (GFC) has been partly attributed to sluggish demand from developed countries. However, data reveals that developing countries play a bigger role in holding back trade growth, while developed countries show quite robust import growth. Post-GFC, the exchange rate volatility has grown significantly. As decomposition of country groups by changes in currency valuation shows, however, local currency depreciation is not contributing to export growth as much as conventional wisdom dictates. On the other hand, countries with appreciating currencies show rising import intensity and significant export growth. This implies that the more countries undergo currency devaluation — the deeper the degree of devaluation and even competitive devaluations — the more likely international trade will grow slower.","PeriodicalId":303938,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121978990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Determinants of Consumer Price Inflation Versus Producer Price Inflation in Asia 亚洲消费者价格通胀与生产者价格通胀的决定因素
Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2016-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2811565
Juthathip Jongwanich, Petchtharin Wongcharoen, Donghyun Park
{"title":"Determinants of Consumer Price Inflation Versus Producer Price Inflation in Asia","authors":"Juthathip Jongwanich, Petchtharin Wongcharoen, Donghyun Park","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2811565","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2811565","url":null,"abstract":"We empirically examine and compare the determinants of producer and consumer price inflation in 10 Asian economies during 2000–2015. In this connection, we also investigate the pass-through of global oil prices, global food prices, and exchange rates to domestic producer and consumer prices. Overall, we find that cost-push factors such as oil and food prices are more important in explaining producer price inflation than consumer price inflation in the 10 Asian economies. On the other hand, for consumer prices, demand-pull factors still explain much of the inflation. Finally, we find that the pass-through of global oil prices, global food prices, and exchange rates tend to be higher for producer prices than consumer prices in Asia.","PeriodicalId":303938,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123744766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Impact of Gender Inequality on the Republic of Korea's Long-Term Economic Growth: An Application of the Theoretical Model of Gender Inequality and Economic Growth 性别不平等对韩国长期经济增长的影响:性别不平等与经济增长理论模型的应用
Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2016-01-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2737837
Jinyoun Kim, Jong‐Wha Lee, Kwanho Shin
{"title":"Impact of Gender Inequality on the Republic of Korea's Long-Term Economic Growth: An Application of the Theoretical Model of Gender Inequality and Economic Growth","authors":"Jinyoun Kim, Jong‐Wha Lee, Kwanho Shin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2737837","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2737837","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a theoretical model that can analyze the impact of gender inequality on long-term economic growth. The model is calibrated to fit to Korean data. We find that gender equality policies that lower discrimination in the labor market or that increase the time spent by a father on child-rearing can contribute positively to female labor market participation and per capita income growth. The simulation results show that when the disparities between men and women at home and in the labor market are completely removed, the female labor force participation rate increases from 54.4% to 67.5%, and the growth rate in per capita income rises from 3.6% to 4.1% on average over a generation.","PeriodicalId":303938,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126533048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 17
Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia: An Update 亚洲发展中国家的公共债务可持续性:最新进展
Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2709349
Benno Ferrarini, Arief Ramayandi
{"title":"Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia: An Update","authors":"Benno Ferrarini, Arief Ramayandi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2709349","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2709349","url":null,"abstract":"Our previous assessment of debt sustainability in developing Asia, conducted in 2011, found that the region’s fiscal outlook was mostly benign. In this study we update the debt sustainability assessment, taking stock of the latest data and including a larger number of countries. With the benefit of hindsight, we assess the accuracy of our earlier debt ratio forecasts and the underlying macroeconomic assumptions. By and large, we find that standard debt sustainability analysis (DSA) represents a valid forecasting tool, able to predict debt ratios fairly accurately under reasonable assumptions and circumstances. Further, our fan chart analysis confirms the importance for stochastic analysis to integrate standard DSA, in order to capture heightened macroeconomic volatility, which we observe for some countries in the region. Looking forward to 2020, debt ratio projections confirm that the outlook remains benign for the region as a whole, country heterogeneity notwithstanding. On the issue of DSA methods and implementation, we emphasize the importance of macroeconomic forecast accuracy and suggest that volatility be captured by risk analysis tools that would optimally flank the standard DSA framework.","PeriodicalId":303938,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123142708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Developing Myanmar's Information and Communication Technology Sector Toward Inclusive Growth 发展缅甸信息和通信技术行业，实现包容性增长
Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2015-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2709322
Kee-Yung Nam, Wena M. Cham, Paulo Rodelio Halili
{"title":"Developing Myanmar's Information and Communication Technology Sector Toward Inclusive Growth","authors":"Kee-Yung Nam, Wena M. Cham, Paulo Rodelio Halili","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2709322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2709322","url":null,"abstract":"Myanmar’s recent socioeconomic and political reforms have signaled a readiness to reintegrate into the world economy. To leapfrog the economy and accelerate growth, the country should take advantage of digital technology. This paper assesses Myanmar’s information and communication technology sector, identifies constraints the sector faces, and recommends policies that will help the government overcome them. Given limited public resources, Myanmar will need help translating its information and communication technology infrastructure needs into financially viable and bankable projects that can attract private sector financing.","PeriodicalId":303938,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130614580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
The Impact of Financial Factors on the Output Gap and Estimates of Potential Output Growth 金融因素对产出缺口的影响及潜在产出增长的估计
Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2015-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2708824
J. Felipe, Noli R. Sotocinal, Connie Bayudan-Dacuycuy
{"title":"The Impact of Financial Factors on the Output Gap and Estimates of Potential Output Growth","authors":"J. Felipe, Noli R. Sotocinal, Connie Bayudan-Dacuycuy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2708824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2708824","url":null,"abstract":"The literature on the finance–growth nexus highlights the importance of the financial cycle for the estimation of potential output of an economy. We estimate potential output growth for the G-5 countries, as well as for 10 high- and middle-income Asian economies, using a multivariate model that includes financial factors. We find that the latter have a positive and statistically significant effect on the output gap of the G-5 and high-income Asian economies, but not on that of the middle-income Asian economies. We also find that average potential growth of the economies included in the study is lower in 2008–2014 than in 2000–2007.","PeriodicalId":303938,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129967377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The People's Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints 中华人民共和国潜在增长率:长期制约因素
Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2014-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2558886
J. Felipe, Matteo Lanzafame, J. Zhuang
{"title":"The People's Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints","authors":"J. Felipe, Matteo Lanzafame, J. Zhuang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2558886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2558886","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008–2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment rate and stable inflation. The PRC’s natural growth rate displays a downward trend since 2006, when it peaked at 11.1%. Probably the Great Recession has been an important factor, although we argue that there are other factors. We show that the PRC’s potential growth rate is not demand constrained, in particular by the balance of payments. The PRC’s potential growth rate is determined by the supply side of the economy, in particular by: (i) changes in the structure of the economy, in particular in the share of industrial employment; (ii) the working-age population; (iii) the share of net exports in gross domestic product (GDP); (iv) export growth; (v) the share of foreign direct investment (FDI) in GDP; and (vi) human capital accumulation.","PeriodicalId":303938,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131368696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Financing Post-2015 Development Challenges: Who are the Front-Runners in the Asia and Pacific Region? 2015年后发展融资挑战:亚太地区谁是领先者?
Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2511138
Hiranya Mukhopadhyay, R. M. Arao
{"title":"Financing Post-2015 Development Challenges: Who are the Front-Runners in the Asia and Pacific Region?","authors":"Hiranya Mukhopadhyay, R. M. Arao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2511138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2511138","url":null,"abstract":"Adequate fiscal flexibility is a prerequisite for meeting the post-2015 development challenges. This paper proposes a composite fiscal flexibility index. Based on several important fiscal parameters, the index will identify countries in the Asia and Pacific region that are well-poised to meet the enhanced development financing requirements.","PeriodicalId":303938,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"194 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131864206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Citizen Empowerment in Service Delivery 在提供服务时赋予公民权力
Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2479718
Babken V. Babajanian
{"title":"Citizen Empowerment in Service Delivery","authors":"Babken V. Babajanian","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2479718","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2479718","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines different approaches for promoting empowerment and discusses conditions required for effective empowerment. It focuses on three empowerment models, including grievance redress, participatory performance monitoring, and community-driven development. There are three sets of factors that affect people’s ability to influence service delivery: institutional properties of empowerment models, citizen participation, and responses of service providers and public officials. Evidence suggests that all three models can enhance people’s capacity to engage with service providers and government agencies, articulate their needs, and demand better service quality and accountability. Yet, these models are based on distinct institutional arrangements that account for the variation in their empowerment and service delivery outcomes. Citizen empowerment in service delivery necessitates the need to enhance people’s ability and willingness to participate and express their voice. It also requires commitment of service providers and government agencies to facilitate fair and effective redress. To address these conditions, policy makers need to ensure careful design and effective outreach as well as support broader policies to allow opportunities for citizen participation, enforce the rule of law, and ensure inclusive access to services.","PeriodicalId":303938,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121171544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
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